Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 36, Greens 10

Another poll finds Scott Morrison’s personal ratings on a downward trajectory, but still very little in it on voting intention.

The Age/Herald yesterday brought us the third result in its monthly federal polling series from Resolve Strategic, which had the Coalition on 40% (up one), Labor on 36% (up one), the Greens on 10% (down two) and One Nation on 3% (up one). This series doesn’t provide a published two-party result, but based on the last election this suggests a Labor lead of 50.5-49.5, down from around 51-49 last time. Scott Morrison has taken a hit on his personal ratings, down five on approval to 48% and up two on disapproval to 40%, while Anthony Albanese is down a point on both, to 31% and 44% respectively. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 46-23, unchanged in magnitude from 48-25 last time.

Full results from the poll, which was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1600, can be viewed here. This includes the poll’s usual results for leader attributes and best party to handle various issues, as well as breakdowns for all major questions by region and gender. After last month’s poll unusually found Labor doing better in New South Wales than Victoria, this result reverts to normal. The pollster has also been up and down in its gender breakdowns, having found Labor doing better among women in the second poll a month ago, but little gender gap in the first poll and the third.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,521 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 36, Greens 10”

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  1. lizzie
    I’m picking they are just nasty people by nature. It is an important KPI to make it up the Coalition’s greasy pole.

  2. Some people here are guilty of rewriting history.

    The flow of refugee boats fell rapidly after Rudd announced his “we’ll lock you up forever” policy.

    The turnback policy was only implemented after the Liberals came to power. At that point the flow was a small fraction.

    We only have a few patrol boats and its a big ocean. A few boats can be turned back. Beyond that the capability is overwhelmed.

    Don’t believe me? The numbers are on public record.

  3. lizzie @ #292 Wednesday, June 16th, 2021 – 4:39 pm

    I don’t think that this argument (ahem) discussion about refugees is getting us very far.

    I’m reading that Karen Andrews MP is doubting the seriousness of the little girl’s illness. Presumably she also doubts the professional skills of the doctors.

    Which tells you how far away most of the country is from sympathy for these people. Karen Andrews is probably expressing the thoughts of a few focus groups the Liberals have conducted this past week.

    ps Not that I agree with Karen Andrews’ sentiments, before the usual suspects go off like a frog in a sock. Young kids can get well very quickly with the correct treatment, so Andrews is likely making the false assessment that the little girl isn’t so sick after all for this reason too.

  4. Cud.

    Rudd adopted Turnback. Not indefinite detention.

    To my knowledge that is the difference between the LNP and Labor. No indefinite detention

  5. Also the most perspicacious comment I saw this week was by Sean Kelly, when he said that, if the sick little girl was the daughter of a White South African asylum seeker then the Morrison government would have pulled out all the stops to help her. Plus there would have been photo ops galore with the little girl.

  6. cat,

    The Libs making themself the issue again is great for Labor imho.

    The Minister attacking the child here is political gold for Albo.

    My reading of the room is that most Australians think the Government has lost the plot on dealing with this family.

  7. Cud Chewers at 4:49 pm

    Some people here are guilty of rewriting history.

    I think they are just remembering the Murdoch/Coalition propaganda of the time. Utter bullshit but repeated enough times to stick.

  8. Granny Anny @ #68 Wednesday, June 16th, 2021 – 10:17 am

    Citizen, are you a Banana Bender? I find regional differences in language interesting. I think devon in Qld is the same as policy in WA and fritz in SA, all made from dairy cows past their use by date.

    Granny, down here in Tassie at least myself and immediate family, various other relatives called devon, belgium (in appearance it looks like an over grown saveloy and nothing like the plastic cased stuff that is now common). As far as fritz and pelony(?) are concerned, the closest I can come to going by the descriptions I’ve heard the equivalent would be strassburg. Regional naming of things are the most confusing thing I’ve ever come a cross. You ask for what you’d get at home and end up with something entirely different. Cordial and soft drink is one that springs immediately to mind.

  9. GG

    That reading of the room should be telling you there is a sea change on the issue.

    To confirm the point.

    @noplaceforsheep tweets
    Andrews has no business publicly discussing the health of a little child & speculating as to the seriousness of her illness.

  10. lizzie @ #74 Wednesday, June 16th, 2021 – 10:24 am

    citizen

    I’d never heard of “devon meat” till I came to Oz. Also, we called it a pasty, not a pastie. My grandmother used to make them every week.

    Down here a pasty and a cornish pasty are two different things.
    ‘Tasmania, the state of befuddlement trying to decipher mainland terms for different drink and food types’.
    Another doozy you could ask is “is it a potato cake or a potato scallop”?

  12. I thought it was extremely poor form of Karen Andrews to run the line she did today.

    Just another in a line of not-fit-for-purpose ministers of this Govt.

  14. The Greens can call for onshore processing all they like but they have no policy for dealing with the rejected because they can’t bring themselves to set a target and to enforce that target.

  15. Fashion comment

    QE2 wore a dress in blue and yellow, the colours of the EU. Scomo wore badly fitting trousers that drooped in folds down his legs at the back. Makes you proud, doesn’t it, to be represented by a man like that.

  17. More on the time of the first detected Covid cases in the USA, testing “… 24,079 blood samples that had been gathered in 50 states before the pandemic shut down face-to-face services on March 18, 2020”, with false positives not excluded.

    Axios summary:

    Not where you’d expect: The National Institutes of Health found evidence that COVID-19 was in the U.S. way before it got on the public radar.

    Our previous understanding had cases flowing from China and Europe to Seattle and New York City.

    But the NIH study of blood samples found a handful of cases in Illinois, Mississippi, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin dating back to early January and perhaps December 2019, reports Axios’ Eileen Drage O’Reilly.

    Why it matters: This public transparency is important for the experts looking into when and where COVID-19 first emerged.

    The CDC published its own data last year suggesting there were U.S. cases back in December 2019.
    Earlier this year, the World Health Organization drew backlash for a report on COVID-19 origins, including for saying it was more likely imported into China than the result of a lab leak.

    Part of that backlash was because investigators were stonewalled by the Chinese government.

    The big picture: U.S. federal health officials are increasingly accepting a timeline in which small numbers of COVID-19 infections may have occurred in the U.S. before the world ever became aware of COVID-19 in China, AP reports.

    “There was probably very rare and sporadic cases here earlier than we were aware of. But it was not widespread and didn’t become widespread until late February,” said CDC investigator Natalie Thornburg.

    A major unknown: When and where the Chinese government first identified cases.

    The bottom line: The official COVID-19 death toll crossed 600K in the U.S. today, and that’s likely a gross undercount.

    https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-americans-december-cases-nih-73d09389-59b6-495f-876c-1623c90e32c1.html

    A new analysis of blood samples from 24,000 Americans taken early last year is the latest and largest study to suggest that the new coronavirus popped up in the U.S. in December 2019 — weeks before cases were first recognized by health officials.

    The analysis is not definitive, and some experts remain skeptical, but federal health officials are increasingly accepting a timeline in which small numbers of COVID-19 infections may have occurred in the U.S. before the world ever became aware of a dangerous new virus erupting in China.

    https://apnews.com/article/more-evidence-covid-in-us-by-christmas-2019-11346afc5e18eee81ebcf35d9e6caee2?

  20. I recall the racist use of ‘slant eyes’ being common during the my childhood.

    I also recall various instances of ’round eyes’ being used in different contexts, some racist.

    ‘Slant eyes’ has been reworded to ‘small eyes’.

    One of the pressure relievers in China is that ‘netizens’ are permitted to have ‘serious’ debates about matters of not much substance at all:

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202106/1226271.shtml

  22. Well done Chris Bowen.

    @SDHamiltonVIC tweets

    “This is renewable energy, don’t be afraid:” Chris Bowen taunts Coalition in House of Reps reneweconomy.com.au/this-is-renewa… via @renew_economy

  24. ‘ItzaDream says:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 5:19 pm

    More on the time of the first detected Covid cases in the USA, testing “… 24,079 blood samples that had been gathered in 50 states before the pandemic shut down face-to-face services on March 18, 2020”, with false positives not excluded.’
    ______________________
    It is great that the US is allowing access to the samples. China is not doing the same thing at all.

  25. lizzie at 5:12 pm

    Fashion comment

    QE2 wore a dress in blue and yellow, the colours of the EU. Scomo wore badly fitting trousers that drooped in folds down his legs at the back.

    So a bit baggy arse/slack arse . Sounds appropriate fashion 😆

  29. ‘a r says:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 5:34 pm

    Cud Chewer @ #303 Wednesday, June 16th, 2021 – 4:49 pm

    The flow of refugee boats fell rapidly after Rudd announced his “we’ll lock you up forever” policy.

    But the ends don’t justify the means, ‘
    _______________________
    Uh huh. De facto, no limit to Australia’s refugee intake. It’s a position being popularized by the Greens, ATM.

  30. @bradpsychology
    · 1h
    Jeff Kennett wants Dan Andrews to resign – 6 months before Andrews overtakes Kennett’s 7 years in office. Is this the smallest man in Australian public life?

  33. Boerwar
    The greens can’t bring themselves to set limits or controls in place.

    The greens are a useless waste of space.

  34. ‘VCT Et3e says:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 5:26 pm

    https://unherd.com/2021/06/brexit-was-just-the-start/, just in case you thought the enemies of the serfs had given up.’
    ___________________________________
    The reference to ‘successful Brexit’ in that text is the give away.
    A significant part of the Dutch economy comes through gateway status. Have a look at the figures for Rotterdam Port.

  35. It is a pity that the Greens think that crying in their soup about refugees is the same as having some clear policy statements on:
    1. How many refugees Australia should welcome.
    2. How these should be chosen.
    3. How to deter the remainder.

  38. BW,

    I reckon Rudd had his fingers crossed behind his back.

    Extravagant rhetoric is fine when a crisis is on.

    But most people know that spending millions on keeping toddlers locked up forever is not something most Australians will agree. My reckoning is that the Libs think they can turn this permanent incarceration of children in to an electoral winner.

    Shame on us if they succeed.

  40. GG

    I think I understand your point in the current circumstances.

    In a way I am glad that the Coalition is experiencing serious push back for its serial incompetence, racism and xenohphobia.

    But it is no way to do national policy!

  42. Mavis @ #222 Wednesday, June 16th, 2021 – 2:09 pm

    [‘Ben Roberts-Smith has broken down describing how when he walks down the street now other people “think I hit a woman”.

    He also described being “scared” for his children after articles published about a rogue SAS soldier named “Leonidas” clearly identified him, partly because of a tattoo on his torso.

    “It crushes my soul,” he said. “I couldn’t protect my kids which is extremely hard to take.“I’ve had moments in my last three years that I just didn’t think it’s worth it.”]

    A tat of Leonadis on his torso, who of course led the Greeks in the battle of Thermopylae – an apt hero for a fellow hero. I can only hope that Roberts-Smith recovers soon from his suffering and gets out a bit more; perhaps even consider dating again. And those shocking rumours about him hiring a private eye to check if a former girlfriend had had an abortion are yet another example of those who would bring this man down, their envy, jealously of him palpable.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/courts-law/ben-robertssmith-says-his-tattoo-identified-him-as-anonymous-soldier/news-story/6200a0e035a7042820cd4005688a4f42

    I’ve no opinion of R-S and guilt or otherwise as reported in various media outlets but I along with others I’m sure are a tad worried about his mental health. I’m only following this through comments made by people on here who are far more knowledgeable about the law than I ever will be. The statements coming from him (imho) are getting more deranged the longer this case goes on .
    Statements including things like “the other blokes are jealous of my VC” amongst many others.
    The veterans community, at least the ones I’m involved with are backing him 100%.
    If and I repeat if as appears to me he’s on the brink of a breakdown I hope he gets all the support he needs from veteran’s organizations because he’ll get bugger all from the department of veterans affairs.

  47. boerwar @ #338 Wednesday, June 16th, 2021 – 5:50 pm

    This comes by way of the AFL but is raw. I dips me lid to Wingard:

    https://www.afl.com.au/video/632238/online-troll-crackdown-criminal-penalties-coming-wingard-s-unfair-fear?videoId=632238&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1623828663001

    And as much as I don’t like Erin Molan’s father, her tireless advocacy to get this Bill through the federal parliament is to be congratulated. She suffered enormously at the hand of trolls online.

  48. BW,

    Morrison’s modus operandi is to do nothing and then find someone to blame when he is forced to do something, make it in to a photo opportunity and then become aggrieved if challenged.

    There is no policy.

    Australian politics atm is totally reactive to events of the day.

  50. @brucehawker tweets

    In NSW an unvaccinated frontline worker in his 60s has contracted Covid. Meanwhile in the UK, 20 year olds are now eligible to be vaccinated. @ScottMorrisonMP has really messed up the vaccine rollout.

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