Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 36, Greens 10

Another poll finds Scott Morrison’s personal ratings on a downward trajectory, but still very little in it on voting intention.

The Age/Herald yesterday brought us the third result in its monthly federal polling series from Resolve Strategic, which had the Coalition on 40% (up one), Labor on 36% (up one), the Greens on 10% (down two) and One Nation on 3% (up one). This series doesn’t provide a published two-party result, but based on the last election this suggests a Labor lead of 50.5-49.5, down from around 51-49 last time. Scott Morrison has taken a hit on his personal ratings, down five on approval to 48% and up two on disapproval to 40%, while Anthony Albanese is down a point on both, to 31% and 44% respectively. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 46-23, unchanged in magnitude from 48-25 last time.

Full results from the poll, which was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1600, can be viewed here. This includes the poll’s usual results for leader attributes and best party to handle various issues, as well as breakdowns for all major questions by region and gender. After last month’s poll unusually found Labor doing better in New South Wales than Victoria, this result reverts to normal. The pollster has also been up and down in its gender breakdowns, having found Labor doing better among women in the second poll a month ago, but little gender gap in the first poll and the third.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,521 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 36, Greens 10”

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  1. Now to answer the specific questions in your post, BoerWar, after my general comments above.

    There are 80 million displaced persons among whom there are 32 million children.

    Yes, and the world population is currently around 7.8 billion (7.8 x 10^9, or 7,800,000,000). So, lets round this to 10 billion: 1 x 10^10 people.

    So, we have (lets round it to 100 million) 1 x 10^8, or 100,000,000 refugees.

    So, for each person in the world, there are (1 x 10^8 / 1 x 10^10) refugees per head of world population.

    So, 1 refugee for every 10^2 (aka 100) people.

    The world can definitely accomodate 1 refugee per 100 people, with good will, and by giving training to those refugees, or just letting them use their talents, they can contribute to the community in which they are placed.

    When we talk about a family of 4, we are talking about 4 refugees settling among a population of 400 people.

    If they can open a restaurant where they cook their local cuisine, for the enjoyment of the local inhabitants, then we all win.

    So, in Biloela, according to the 2016 census, there are over 5,000 people. Of course the Murugappan family were welcomed with open arms. Biloela is 120 K west of Gladstone! No one wants to live there. The young people move away to the city. The country and regional towns are dying all over the world. What a fantastic place to accomodate refugees!

    https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=what+is+the+current+world+population
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biloela
    And, as Redgum sang of Gladstone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prGL0eemcPA

    When the Sri Lankan family gets to either Sri Lanka, or Australian citizenship in Biloela, those figures will still obtain,

    Yes, but letting them go back to Biloela will help many people understand that refugees are just normal people who want the same things as we all do – a safe life, a better future for our children, and to be a useful and functioning part of society – to do a job we are proud of, to feel we are “earning our keep”.

    demonstrating that the current brou ha ha, from the Greens to the Coalition is pure kabuki with some enthusiastic audience participation and confusion thrown in.

    Completely agree with this. We need a Doc Evatt type, who can get the world enthused about making the world a better place for all of us.

    How many refugees a year should Australia welcome? By ‘welcome’, I mean that they gain transport services to Australia, immediate permanent residency (with the usual pathways to full citizenship) and full access to all relevant government transfers and services. In addition government services would provide services that accelerate full participation in the paid and informal economies.

    Well, the population of Australia is around 24 million (24,000,000 or 24 x 10^6) so, we should take 24 x 10^4 (240,000) refugees, for our share.

    Also, How many are happy to live in our dying regional towns? They could completely revitalise them. We could easily take more than our humanity mandated quota for people willing to live in the regions.

    Which refugees should Australia welcome? How do we organize our annual quota? I assume that it would be preferable to have sort of organisation rather than rafferty’s rules.

    Really, whoever wants to come here. Probably fewer people than most Australian think.

    How should Australia deter the remainder which I will call ‘non quota refugees’? Total global non quota refugees will quickly exceed the number that this equation started with.

    Not if we implement a global refugee resettlement – and as a moral imperative we should.

    Specifically, what cruelties would this involve?

    See above.

    As I recall, turning the boats back was widely regarded as cruel and inhumane but now seems to be accepted by many of the same commentators who previously reviled it.

    Most people now know that mass deaths at sea serve no purpose.

    In terms of cruelty there can be no doubt that one involves mass death as refugees who do not fill our quota desperately try to cross seas in unseaworthy boats.

    Another cruelty will involve the non quota refugees remaining in as state of permanent uncertainty as they realize that any hope of being resettlement recedes into the horizon.

    Well , we as humanity need to sort this out, so everyone can have decent place to live.

    Another cruelty will be the state of the on quota refugees camps. Life is bad in most of the camps. Education, health and housing are generally absent to totally lacking. Security is often very poor as well.

    OMFG – the World is more than capable of providing safe, temporary accomodation to every one who needs it. It will provide jobs, for Dogs sake.

  3. Mexicanbeemer
    We end up being expected to take the whole world’s refugee population ? That is the traditional end of that line of question.

  4. Quoll
    Firstly, the distrust extends to the Greens.

    Secondly, sure there are *parts* that are the same. The mistake the Greens make is thinking that generalising gets them votes. What it does is encourage people to stick to the status quo (i.e. at the moment that would be Greens and Labor out of government and Coalition in).

    Thirdly, distrust of politicians and government serves the Right, who are naturally happy to shrink government and tell people they’ll stay out of their hair. If you think politicians get up to no good, are you going to go with the one with the big program or the one that does as little as possible?

  5. The thing I find strange about the debate over refugees, we have people literally dying to get to Australia and we can’t get people to pick fruit.

    Instead of spending 3 billion locking them up it would seem to me fruit picking visas would be the way to go. If they fit in why not let them stay.

    Considering the great contribution the Vietnamese boat people have made to our society I don’t understand the why people are so scared of people willing die to come here.

  6. Bucephalus:

    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 9:18 pm

    [‘Mavis says:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 9:12 pm

    Yes, she is expecting the Greens to pursue policy positions that she agrees with.’]

    Well, considering she’s the convenor, that’s not surprising. But the point I was making in relation to Quoll’s post is that the majors are not the only ones to receive quite large donations. That’s how the system works. Quoll, though, at least impliedly, would have it that the Greens’ donations are received via small donations from those attending winter solstice celebrations, Steiner school fetes, and the like. And what of the 2011 $1.6 million donation from the founder of the Wotif, Graeme Wood, the largest individual donation ever in this country.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-01-08/record-greens-donation-no-longer-a-wotif/1898404


  7. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 9:31 pm

    D&M
    Okay so after we have taken the 240000 what do we do with the 240001 person?

    There must be a limit to the number of leaking fishing boats available. Hell it would be cheaper to buy them all up than the current nonsense.

  9. Poroti
    Only if there is no process in place for rejecting cases.

    The way Morrison has treated this family has been a disgrace.

  10. frednk says:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 9:36 pm

    “I don’t understand the why people are so scared of people willing die to come here.”

    The people who come here to pick fruit either specifically or as a condition of their “working holiday” visa don’t intend to stay.

    It is quite reasonable that we have control over who we let into our country and that they are assessed prior to being offered a place. Uncontrolled entry is not supported.

  11. D&M,

    I admire your sentiment. We would need reinvestment in a world order for a global resettlement programme such as you have proposed to occur. NB:- the numbers you have suggested may not have taken human attitudes into account; some countries are preferred over others.

    Where are we at? The UN is tired and we slowly shift into a situation whereby the lessons from WWII, and the causes thereof, slowly absent themselves from our collective living memory.

  13. I really have a problem with people using the particular, ie the Biloela family, to argue for the general situation. There is a world of difference.

    And so many romantic assumptions. That do not take account of so many real world considerations.

  14. Frednk
    I’m not scare of them wanting to come here but there needs to be a process in place. When making policy or a project all possibilities need to be considered not because you expect the extremes to happen but so if something unexpected does happen then you are not caught unprepared.

  16. Bucephalus
    …
    It is quite reasonable that we have control over who we let into our country and that they are assessed prior to being offered a place. Uncontrolled entry is not supported.

    I have always found that a strange argument coming from the right. What happened to the “private enterprise is best”, why the sudden faith in bureaucratic selection? Why the desire for big government jails?

  18. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/06/16/resolve-strategic-coalition-40-labor-36-greens-10/comment-page-8/#comment-3627209

    All seats in the US House of Reps are up for election in the mid-terms, so the Trump as Speaker of the House plan would include Trump running for a house seat (presumable a safe Republican seat in Florida). Trump could primary almost any Republican candidate he wanted to, just by running. It is a potential political tactic to bring out the Trump voters in the mid-terms, likely also to increase turnout among anti-Trump voters.

  19. Not to mention the fact that the Australian federal government is a Coalition government and there’s no way they will pursue a course that is anything other than hard line. They won’t even let women and children that are Australian citizens come back from the ISIS family camps in the Middle East!

    And we haven’t even started to consider Climate Change refugees in the numbers yet.

  22. Mexicanbeemer
    Because people have to cross an ocean, the process is self limiting. It can be argued the people smugglers were making it too easy. The test was not good enough. In the end there has to be a limit on the availability of leaky fishing boats. We have spent a lot of money undermining the leaky fishing boat market.

    Would have been cheaper to limit supply by buying them all up.

  23. Jaeger:

    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 9:39 pm

    [‘More spinning than flies:’]

    Have you no compassion(?).

    Probably; is that the bright green one?

  35. Victoria

    Apparently the transport driver, despite being an obvious front line worker, was not vaccinated.

    Gladys and Kerry fucked it up again.

    Not to mention that the driver had been infectious last weekend. What happened to daily testing of front line workers?

  36. Mavis @ #440 Wednesday, June 16th, 2021 – 9:12 pm

    So Labor received $477,930 in donations from fossil fuel companies; the Tories a similar amount. Big deal.

    ————-

    Boeing sending almost 1 million dollars to Republicans, (who also incited the capital riots), do you think that is not a big deal?

  37. Mexican Beemer

    D&M
    Okay so after we have taken the 240000 what do we do with the 240001 person?

    We take the 240,000 as part of an agreed international solution to the refugee problem.

    The person 240, 001 has another option for settlement, as part of our international agreement.

    FFS – am I the only Irish person here!!

    Millions of people left Eire because of famine and poverty, including all my family, from the 1800s to around the year 2000.

    The reason I, and my children, have an education and are doing pretty well during COVID-19, is because my ancestors left a moribund country (English colony), and sought a better life in Australia, the US and the UK.

    We as a family, are drifting back to Ireland, Galway, Kerry and Cork, as a family. I always think of Pauline Hansen: “Go Back to Where You Came From”, when we discuss our plans.

    Why would you want to stop people like my forebears coming to Australia or anywhere else?

    Because, we do eventually “go back to where we came from”.

  38. https://www.ft.com/content/2036d7e9-daa2-445d-8f88-6fcee745a259

    The US has warned the EU against pursuing “protectionist” technology policies that exclusively target American companies, ahead of Joe Biden’s first presidential visit to Brussels.

    The National Security Council, an arm of the White House, wrote last week to complain about the tone of recent comments about the EU’s flagship tech regulation, as debates are about to begin in the European parliament.

    “We are particularly concerned about recent comments by the European Parliament rapporteur for the Digital Markets Act, Andreas Schwab, who suggested the DMA should unquestionably target only the five biggest US firms,” said the email, seen by the Financial Times and dated June 9.

    It added: “Comments and approaches such as this make regulatory co-operation between the US and Europe extremely difficult and send a message that the [European] Commission is not interested in engaging with the United States in good faith to address these common challenges in a way that serves our shared interests.”

    —————————-

    USA doesn’t like a taste of their own medicine.

  39. Cud chewer

    The MSM dont seem all that concerned about these covid cases in NSW.
    If they were, they would be saying the term “scrambling” like they always do here in Melbourne.

  42. Alpha zero

    It wasnt anywhere near the headline. Lol!

    Scrambling appears towards end of story.

    If it were Melbourne. Headline would read

    Health authorities are scrambling……..

  44. Player One says:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 10:13 pm

    “Immoral? Yes.”

    Rubbish.

    On what basis is it immoral?

    I think actually it’s quite an achievement for our polity.

    We get very similar levels of political funding for either side, and these levels are moderate. The main exception was the intervention of the fat toad of Queensland, which hopefully will not be repeated. And this has been achieved notwithstanding the High Court’s inference of an implied right to free speech that could only be assuaged through permission for political donations, including those from he of Toad Pocket

  45. The Victorian State of Play:
    ___________________________

    Mike Honey Syringe
    @Mike_Honey_
    ·
    9h
    Victorian outbreak paths update for 16 June 2021:

    Inspired by the very informative work of
    @dbRaevn
    , an interactive dataviz of the current Victorian outbreak paths.

    Interactive dataviz (multiple pages/styles), data and source code all available here:

    dbRaevn
    @dbRaevn
    ·
    10h
    Victorian Outbreak Map – 16th June 2021
    #COVID19Vic #Covid19VicData

  48. Victoria

    We now have a second confirmed case in Sydney. A household contact. And exposure sites are popping up quickly. So much for me visiting Sydney this week. Fuck you, Gladys, for you “acceptable risk” bullshit.

  49. D&M
    Thanks because my concern has never been how many Australia took but what happened to those it didn’t take because leaving millions in camps for years isn’t a good outcome for anyone.

  50. The transport driver wasn’t being tested on his days off. Victoria, tell me if I’m wrong, but I believe that in Victoria they test front line workers like this on their days off?

    So, instead of being detected as positive back on the weekend, we don’t take action until Wednesday. Now we’re going to see contacts of contacts. Will NSW Health quarantine the lot? First I saw of this news was an entire cinema worth of people put into quarantine. Glad I didn’t watch that movie.

    And of course, he wasn’t vaccinated. Why the fuck hasn’t Gladys and Kerry stopped non vaccinated people working on risky front line jobs like this?

    I bet the PPE was still “surgical mask” and not P95. Because Gladys’s advisers still have their heads stuck up their assholes regarding aerosols. These pricks can never admit being wrong. Worse, Gladys believes them rather than using her own intelligence.

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