Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 36, Greens 10

Another poll finds Scott Morrison’s personal ratings on a downward trajectory, but still very little in it on voting intention.

The Age/Herald yesterday brought us the third result in its monthly federal polling series from Resolve Strategic, which had the Coalition on 40% (up one), Labor on 36% (up one), the Greens on 10% (down two) and One Nation on 3% (up one). This series doesn’t provide a published two-party result, but based on the last election this suggests a Labor lead of 50.5-49.5, down from around 51-49 last time. Scott Morrison has taken a hit on his personal ratings, down five on approval to 48% and up two on disapproval to 40%, while Anthony Albanese is down a point on both, to 31% and 44% respectively. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 46-23, unchanged in magnitude from 48-25 last time.

Full results from the poll, which was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1600, can be viewed here. This includes the poll’s usual results for leader attributes and best party to handle various issues, as well as breakdowns for all major questions by region and gender. After last month’s poll unusually found Labor doing better in New South Wales than Victoria, this result reverts to normal. The pollster has also been up and down in its gender breakdowns, having found Labor doing better among women in the second poll a month ago, but little gender gap in the first poll and the third.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,521 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 36, Greens 10”

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  1. Cud Chewersays:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 11:34 pm

    I keep ranting on that this virus is not a simple virus, it won’t go just because you tell it to.

    This is far from a man-made/man-modified virus, it’s mother nature.

  2. Hmm.. This person travelled on a bus whilst infectious. All they want people to do is to monitor for symptoms. Why is this not categorised as high risk, given its a freakin bus?

  3. I don’t think the same distrust extend to the Greens as far as donations and corruption goes. Just a disingenuous line here to run to try and make like everyone is just as institutionally corrupted. Exactly the kind of stooge line that reinforces distrust.

    Donations from individuals are not the same as those of corporations.
    The latter also providing sinecures for MP’s from both Lib and Lab parties, as well as enormous funding of industry bodies and positions in lobbying firms for vested interests in environmental and socially destroying industries with no actual human compunction or interest aside from making money and exploiting what they can in the process. Millions of dollars year after year.

    More weasel words to justify taking money and being corrupted by it. Why do you Laborites even bother spending day after day, year after year bitching about the Libs, or the fat toad, carping about their mates getting rorted money. Then saying oh yeah, actually it’s all fine. Lets just shut up about any reform and let the interests of corporations and their socially and ecologically destructive industry bodies run the whole place.

    Fucking pathetic weasel words.

    There’s plenty of evidence over years about the corrupting influence of money from the carbon club and other industries corrupting the genuine interests of society, the public and the environment interest. Carbon club, pokies and crown casinos anyone?

    No wonder neither the Lib or Lab party have even thought too much about, let alone organised, an ICAC because they don’t really want to stop the gravy train.

    The PB Labor cabal really seems like such a bunch of gutless stooges for the business as usual corruption, so conveniently decides that actually fossil fuel money is fine as long as both sides get about the same amount. Bugger society’s or the environment’s interest, as long as the duopoly corporate sponsorship shit can continue.

    Still try to run a pantomime here daily that Smoko, MicMac and Co fuck-up everything they touch as some sort of idiotic strategy though eh. Just to keep up some shallow empty appearance.

  4. Quoll

    I don’t think the same distrust extend to the Greens as far as donations and corruption goes.

    We were talking about the distrust of politicians in general, as appears in the polls. Not the specific issue you raised, nor specifically your (or other Greens, or even mine) trust for the Greens politicians. What do the majority of Labor and Coalition voters think of Greens politicians?

    Just a disingenuous line here to run to try and make like everyone is just as institutionally corrupted. Exactly the kind of stooge line that reinforces distrust.

    Exactly! Indiscriminate same-sameing does exactly that. I’m glad you understand.

    However in this case you’ve misunderstood. I made no claim that everyone is just as institutionally corrupted. We’re talking about trust. Two different things. Perhaps your habit of generalising also leads to this kind of mistake.

    Then saying oh yeah, actually it’s all fine.

    Well I don’t think it’s fine, nor did I say so. Stop making stuff up.

  5. Actually, is there a poll/matrix anywhere that shows how much voters of different stripes trust politicians of different stripes?

  6. If 50% of the population think politicians are corrupt, does that mean 50% think politicians are not corrupt or does it mean 50% don’t think.
    My favourite often used political qualifier is people aren’t stupid.
    Some interesting comments tonight.

  7. ‘Stable politics’

    London: Dominic Cummings has leaked Boris Johnson’s private WhatsApp messages in a sensational escalation of the former adviser’s feud with the British Prime Minister.

    The messages show Johnson slamming his health secretary Matt Hancock as “totally f—ing hopeless” for failing to meet testing targets as Britain struggled to contain the spread of COVID-19 which has contributed to the deaths of nearly 128,000 people in the United Kingdom.

  8. Nevermind it’s late and I’m the one who mixed things up I guess. The original quote regarded corruption, not distrust :P.

  9. Not surprised to see a drop in the ALP’s primary and agree with Kevin that the independent number looks an outlier.

    Kevin Bonham
    ResolvePM Vic (state) ALP 37 L-NP 36 Green 9 IND 12 (???) Other 5.

    Kevin Bonham
    I estimate 2PP 53.5-46.5 to Labor then.
    Hard to know what to make of IND 12 (double 2018 IND result)
    Better Premier Andrews leads 49-23 (skews to incumbents but not that much) #springs

    Kevin Bonham
    The issues with IND as a standalone option are: (i) some voters want to vote IND but then can find no IND they have heard of or like in their seat (ii) some voters will think IND includes non-Green minor parties generally.


    The Trade deal is only for rich snobs that can afford it.

    ‘Ceramics, whisky, biscuits, pharmaceuticals, cars, machinery, and tractors are among the products expected to be cheaper in Australia due to the removal of tariffs. There have also been suggestions British cheese and some clothing brands, such as Burberry, could cost Australians less due to the deal. The UK government estimates $7.9 billion worth of exports into Australia will have tariffs removed.’

    Nothing really important for us normal folks.

  11. Its started already:
    Minimum-wage rise ‘risks recovery’(The Oz)

    Lockdowns and a slow vaccine rollout are risks to the economic recovery, the Fair Work Commission has warned as it awarded an $18.80-a-week minimum wage rise.

  12. Maybe because they are doing what principled Independents should do. Negotiate with the government to improve their legislation.

  13. We have plenty of refugees who are now bona fide Australian residents – and the fruit picking problem remains.

    You can’t support a family on three month’s work, so migrants flock to the cities, where at least there’s a chance they can get something more permanent.

  14. zoomster @ #518 Thursday, June 17th, 2021 – 6:55 am

    The Malaysian solution was meant to be the first step in setting up a regional solution.

    The Greens opposed it.

    Simple as that.

    Sarah Hanson-Young conspired with Scott Morrison to sink it. I caught them doing it.

    The Greens didn’t come to some principled decision on their own, independent of the Abbott Opposition, they conspired with the Abbott Opposition to sink it. They abused the fact that Malaysia wasn’t a signatory to the UN Charter of Human Rights as their artifice to hide behind.

    And they have kept conspiring with the Liberals against Labor ever since. For which they deserve zero respect.

  15. Most refugees end up in the cities. They do so to be with their countrymen and, to shop at their own shops and to be near their churches and mosques.

    Some end up in the rural and regional areas but they are a minority.

  16. World’s third largest diamond discovered in Botswana

    The diamond firm Debswana has announced the discovery in Botswana of a 1,098-carat stone that it described as the third largest of its kind in the world.
    It is the third largest in the world, behind the 3,106-carat Cullinan found in South Africa in 1905 and the 1,109-carat Lesedi La Rona discovered in Botswana in 2015.

  17. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Writing about what she describes as a “stalling government”, Niki Savva says that Morrison cannot allow the QAnon questions to fester.
    A fall in productivity growth over the past decade has cost every Australian $11,500 in lost income, eating into our standard of living, explains Shane Wright.
    More from Wright who tells us that intergenerational reports mapping out the state of the budget would be expanded to cover economic disadvantage, climate change and whether government policies are actually working, under plans from Labor to revitalise the document.
    Cait Kelly writes that there are fears the biggest reform to Australia’s agriculture visa program could all but guarantee widespread exploitation throughout the picking industry, with non-English-speaking workers left vulnerable to wage theft and racism.
    And Matthew Elmas identifies the missing jigsaw piece driving our labour shortages.
    The Fair Work Commission has warned that more lockdowns and the pace of the vaccine rollout are risks to the economic recovery, as it awarded an $18.80-a-week ­minimum wage rise, but delayed the increase by up to four months for workers in Covid-impacted ­industries.
    A fresh push for an independent inquiry into damning allegations against Christian Porter was blocked straight away, in a government move that’s been slammed as a “virtually unprecedented” gag tactic, explains Josh Butler.
    Annika Smethurst looks at an Age poll that suggests the Andrews government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic has cost it the support of thousands of Victorian voters but Daniel Andrews remains comfortably ahead of his rival as the state’s preferred premier.
    The Age says Morrison government ministers have reignited a push to replace state Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien as Victorian Liberal MPs again consider plans for a spill just three months after a failed coup attempt.
    Deborah Snow writes that up until this point in the Ben Roberts-Smith defamation case, it has been the former soldier’s opportunity to give the best possible account of himself, unchallenged by the other side. That opportunity ends today when Nicholas Owens, SC, the lead barrister for the respondents begins his cross-examination – a process that could keep Roberts-Smith on the witness stand for another week or more.
    And Harriet Alexander describes the efforts of BR-S’s eminent lawyer, saying that on the last day of Mr Roberts-Smith’s evidence, it fell to Mr McClintock to coax from Mr Roberts-Smith a demonstration of the emotional impact on him from the published articles. And for several hours, he plumped his questions to find it.
    Epidemiologist David J Hunter tells us why the COVID endgame could be a long one.
    Some business chiefs and politicians keep telling us that restrictions diminish our lives and harm our economy but there is little indication that any of us want leaders to abolish all controls and put our health at risk, writes Shaun Carney who sets out to examine the meaning of the oft-used term “living with the virus” means.
    Melissa Cunningham tells us that a Melbourne infectious diseases physician is saying that until vaccine uptake rises substantially, testing remains the most critical measure in Victoria with the state “primed for a third wave”.
    Diverse spokespeople and humour: how the government’s next ad campaign could boost COVID vaccine uptake.
    On the Biloela family, the government is hiding behind legislation as a reason for not doing anything. This is truly a morally bankrupt position as anyone who understands immigration law knows, complains John Menadue.
    The Prime Minister will be relieved to be in greater company in Australia’s criticisms of China, but it’s still standing exposed on the front line of a much more tense region, writes Jennifer Hewett.
    Jennifer Duke reports that the federal government is forging ahead with a plan to overhaul the $3.2 trillion superannuation sector in a bid to usher in a new regime by July, bringing a surprise motion to debate the legislation in the Senate. Labor fears a deal might have been done with PHON.
    Richard Denniss posits that Scott Morrison is the accidental architect of a carbon tax – whether he likes it or not.
    John Hewson notes how gentlemen’s clubs have long been – and are becoming ever more so – an anachronism, inconsistent with evolving social norms.
    Peter Hannm reports that the Berejiklian government will spend an extra $380 million to help expedite investment into the state’s five renewable energy zones and smooth the way for an increase in solar, wind and storage projects.
    Attorney-General Michaelia Cash is to bring a major rewrite of the contentious Religious Discrimination Bill to parliament by December, sparking new debate over faith-based and gay rights before the next election, reports the Australian’s Richard Ferguson.
    In an era where religious importance is on the decline, it’s only conservatives and the hard Right who are still pushing for religious discrimination, writes Dr Stuart Edser who says religious freedom laws have no place in modern Australia.,15192
    Greg Jericho laments that Australia’s main response to the Covid recession was to keep home prices booming.
    Making sure the ‘big people’ pay their taxes would be a boost to democracy, urges Nicholas Shaxson.
    The Morrison government is attempting to stare down the Senate over changes to conservation laws, warning the wording of controversial new environment standards before parliament is “not negotiable” and will not be strengthened. The push was immediately rejected by two key crossbench senators, with one declaring the legislation to change the laws – which all parties agree are failing – was “dead in the water” unless the standards were strengthened, writes Adam Morton.
    Alexandra Smith previews the NSW budget.
    Michael McGowan reveals that tenants are effectively being charged fees to pay their own rent by real estate firms that outsource payment processing to third-party companies, a practice advocacy groups say has become increasingly common despite laws meant to curtail its use.
    In an address to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Scott Morrison warned rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific were a threat to the financial prosperity of other nations and called on leaders to “defend a world order that supports freedom”.
    As Biden inflicts a new cold war, his acolyte Morrison shows he has learned nothing from his blunders on China, says Colin Mackerras.
    The failure of the media to hold various Australian governments to account for their mistakes in Afghanistan has taken a terrible toll on veterans and its military reputation, writes Branko Miletic.,15194
    The TV networks have joined Netflix to oppose local TV content quotas. It’s too expensive, they say. Yet the local arts and screen sector says the industry which employs 200,000 Australians would be devastated. Elizabeth Minter reports on a crucial decision for Communications Minister Paul Fletcher.
    Alan Kohler begins this contribution with, “The decision by El Salvador to accept Bitcoin as legal tender is a big moment. It could prove that the largest cryptocurrency is a viable alternative to the money created by central banks, which would be huge. Or it could prove the opposite by making a bigger mess of El Salvador’s economy than it already is, and that would probably be the end of all the Bitcoin fun.”
    Dan Andrews is okay as Dictator Dan but not John Barilaro as Benito Mussolini, apparently. The attack by the NSW government on critic Friendly Jordies has escalated as Google and Facebook moved to remove parody images of Deputy Premier Barilaro. 2SM Radio host Marcus Paul also came under pressure. Callum Foote reports.
    Latika Bourke reports that Dominic Cummings has leaked Boris Johnson’s private WhatsApp messages in a sensational escalation of the former adviser’s feud with the British Prime Minister.
    One of the first cruises scheduled to sail from the United States has been postponed after eight crew members tested positive for the coronavirus during routine testing. Surprised?
    A crew of conservative lawyers still pushing disinformation that echoes Donald Trump’s false claim that the election was rigged are now battling federal inquiries, defamation lawsuits and bar association scrutiny that threaten to cripple their legal careers.

    Cartoon Corner

    Cathy Wilcox

    Peter Broelman

    David Rowe

    Matt Golding

    Mark David

    Andrew Dyson

    Mark Knight

    Johannes Leak – who else?

    From the US

  18. Morning all

    Cud chewer

    Following up on last night’s comments.

    Victoria do test frontline workers on days off.

    Remember only a few people end up being superspreaders. Hopefully Sydney get lucky again.

  19. Ben Roberts-Smith begins his Cross Examination today. As far as this goes I would be asking, why, what didn’t you want anyone to find out about?

    McClintock has also asked him to explain his use of two pre-paid phones, which Owens has described as “burner” phones. Roberts-Smith said the use of these phones was not designed to avoid scrutiny by law enforcement, or by the Inspector-General of the Australian Defence Force (under whose auspices a broader inquiry into wrongdoing in Afghanistan was under way). Instead, they were to protect his privacy.

    UK phone hacking scandals were “playing heavily” on his mind, he told the court, and “I just needed to talk on something that wasn’t going to be compromised by the media”.

  20. From Dawn Patrol. At least the arsehole was honest about his industry’s business model relying on ripping off overseas workers. Lurve the euphemism “lower-waged international staff” .
    ‘A big hole’: The missing jigsaw piece driving our labour shortages

    Mr Normoyle said many businesses in his industry aren’t in a position to offer higher rates of pay, particularly after lower-waged international staff became the competitive standard over the past decade and pushed down prices in the process.

  21. Both Lib and Lab traipsing across or zooming in to Perth to reassure their sponsors from the fossil fuel, APPEA, industry that they have their interests at heart this week.

    Really is amazing how cheap the major parties are when it comes to selling out the nations interest in a more rapid and real addressing of climate change.

    Same message as Morrison pretty much from Labor to their sponsors

    Federal Labor’s Madeleine King defends gas as ‘critical’ to Australia’s needs
    Opposition frontbencher will tell industry Labor’s support is predicated on gas being a transitional fuel during the shift to net zero emissions

    Scott Morrison says gas will ‘always’ be a major contributor to Australia’s prosperity
    Prime minister reassures industry the Coalition will back it during transition to ‘new energy economy’

  22. Fed Signals Earlier Interest-Rate Rise

    Federal Reserve officials indicated they expect to raise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the economy recovers rapidly from the effects of the pandemic and inflation heats up.

  23. Quoll,
    You would rather lizzie had not been able to get by after the Victorian storms and without her gas cooking supply, would you?

    This just shows what an unreasonable extremist you are. No one takes unreasonable extremists seriously.

    You need to get one of those Melania Trump jackets that says, ‘I Really Don’t Care, Do You?’

    Grow up, Quoll.

  24. C@t

    Although I was thankful to have a gas tank as back-up to boil water, I am very torn over the proposal to open up more of the ocean to gas and oil exploration, especially when I read that our gas is being sold overseas on long term contracts and is not available to domestic users.

  25. Van Badham
    If you haven’t seen the footage about the arrest of
    ’ producer by a *counter terrorism squad* acting in a complaint by #nswpol deputy premier John Barilaro, give it twelve minutes of your day and then share it. Something is very rotten in the state of NSW. #auspol
    Quote Tweet
    Warren pitt
    · Jun 15
    Replying to @DougCameron51 and @BelindaJones68
    Share this Doug –

  26. Holdenhillbilly at 7:45 am

    Fed Signals Earlier Interest-Rate Rise

    It would take sfa interest rate rises to see this in the housing market.

  27. C@tmommas at 7:50 am

    You would rather lizzie had not been able to get by after the Victorian storms and without her gas cooking supply, would you?

    Do some reading about Australia’s gas industry. Learn about where the gas from our big projects goes and what % is used locally. There is no danger of all the ‘lizzies’ of Australia running short of gas if we do not open up all those new gas fields.

  28. lizzie @ #532 Thursday, June 17th, 2021 – 7:55 am


    Although I was thankful to have a gas tank as back-up to boil water, I am very torn over the proposal to open up more of the ocean to gas and oil exploration, especially when I read that our gas is being sold overseas on long term contracts and is not available to domestic users.

    And that is the problem that needs a solution, not just some diffuse agit prop from Quoll.

    I’m going to be personally affected by offshore drilling if Keith Pitt approves PEP 11 and gives the go-ahead to extraction off the Central Coast of NSW. We don’t need gas that much that every last drop of it needs to be exploited. As you say, most of it is going overseas. However, to simply call for an end to all gas extraction is simply an immature understanding of the issue.

  29. poroti @ #536 Thursday, June 17th, 2021 – 8:03 am

    C@tmommas at 7:50 am

    You would rather lizzie had not been able to get by after the Victorian storms and without her gas cooking supply, would you?

    Do some reading about Australia’s gas industry. Learn about where the gas from our big projects goes and what % is used locally. There is no danger of all the ‘lizzies’ of Australia running short of gas if we do not open up all those new gas fields.

    Which is what I just said to lizzie. Do some reading yourself. I’m presenting a nuanced argument. People like Quoll should try it sometime.

  30. Victoria
    The craziest thing has been the sky rocketing house prices over the course of the covid pandemic. Something that seems to be happening across at least the ‘Anglo-Saxon’ nations.

  31. Bret Walker with some interesting thoughts on the presumption of innocence.

    Presumption of innocence doesn’t mean a suspect is innocent, leading Sydney barrister warns

    The high-profile barrister Bret Walker SC has warned that the presumption of innocence doctrine should not be misunderstood to mean that a person is in fact innocent.

    Walker told the Rule of Law Education Centre’s Presumption of Guilt conference on Tuesday it would be “terrible” if the presumption of innocence meant everyone was compelled to regard an accused person as innocent until they were convicted.

    The barrister said the concept meant instead that the prosecution had “to prove beyond reasonable doubt the guilt of the accused”. He labelled the view that a person was necessarily innocent until they were convicted as a form of “magical thinking”.

  32. I wonder if there is a relationship between the quoll pills and angry bandts and the following?
    The latest state poll has the Greens down to 9% in Victoria while the latest fed poll has the Greens down to 10%.

  33. From Jan 2021

    Political donations and the resources sector’s influence

    The fossil fuel industry’s outsized influence on Australian politics is confirmed by a new report, which tracks the millions of dollars spent by the sector in political donations over the past two decades. By Royce Kurmelovs.

    The report by the Centre for Public Integrity (CPI), released this week, crunched the numbers on donations disclosed between 1999 and 2019 in an effort to track the biggest donors in Australia by industry.

    The mining and resources sector, it found, was by far the most active, depositing $136.8 million into the pockets of politicians and political parties – outstripping the donations from its closest competitor, the property industry.

    Among these donations was the record $83 million paid by Clive Palmer to his own party, the United Australia Party, in 2019.

    It remains the single largest political donation in Australian history, and saw the miner employ his companies as a de facto “super PAC” – an American legal entity used to funnel vast sums of money to campaigns in order to favour a particular candidate or deny them a win.

    After Palmer, the next largest corporate donors were Woodside Energy, the largest oil and gas producer in the country, which parted with $2 million, and Santos, Australia’s second-largest oil producer, which donated $1.5 million.The CPI found the top corporate contributors to these third-party organisations were all in the resources sector: Rio Tinto donated $4.6 million; Glencore, $4.1 million; and BHP, $3.6 million. If the donations made by BHP’s subsidiaries were combined, though, they would total $10.5 million, making it the largest contributor of all.


    “It’s pay-to-play politics,” says Dan Gocher, director of climate and environment at the Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility. He says his organisation speaks regularly to listed companies about their political contributions. Some agreed to stop, but many refused. “We’ve had conversations with some of these companies and they see it as the price of access to Liberal and Labor party business forums,” he says.


    The gas-fired recovery is a plan by the Coalition government to massively expand the production of natural gas to combat the economic problems left in the wake of the pandemic.

    Although the plan was opposed by 25 of the nation’s leading climate scientists in an open letter published in August last year, industry lobbyists have sought to position natural gas – a fossil fuel – as a “transitional fuel” that can help “bridge” to a zero-carbon economy.


    Australia’s Dodgy Political Donations

    Labor and the Liberals have taken over $100 million from corporate donors since 2012.
    Parties use political donations to help fund their election campaigns and day-to-day activities. In return, corporate donors get access to politicians. They sit with them at fundraising dinners and meet with them at Parliament House.

    The dodgy deals that result are evidence that the system is broken – it gives those with money the opportunity to buy influence that the average person cannot afford.

  35. BK: Thanks for including David Hunter’s reality check on COVID in your essential roundup. A few of those anxious about their privilege (including more than a few Bludgers) could take note – not that it will stop the whining. Touting tourism is now a dead end job – Scummo’s spinners notwithstanding.
    PS. Pro-tip: I’m not going anywhere near Oz ski-fields this season, and snogging snow-bunnies is right out. Single-person snow caves around Blue Lake might be the way to go for cross-country.

  36. And then there is the ‘interesting’ legal position that you are innocent, even if proven guilty in a Court of Law, because you can afford to Appeal your guilt in the High Court.

  37. zoomster

    Thanks for repeating the truth about the regional solution, which the Gillard government was trying to bring about as a result of advice by many as the best way forward. I remember my fury and disappointment when the Greens refused to support the legislation needed.

  38. Sally McManus
    Why don’t we have rapid testing kits? Asking ppl who have been at exposure sites to line up for hours will mean many won’t. These kits were developed in Australia – yet the Fed Govt did not secure them. Forward planning to “live with the virus” lacking!

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