Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 36, Greens 10

Another poll finds Scott Morrison’s personal ratings on a downward trajectory, but still very little in it on voting intention.

The Age/Herald yesterday brought us the third result in its monthly federal polling series from Resolve Strategic, which had the Coalition on 40% (up one), Labor on 36% (up one), the Greens on 10% (down two) and One Nation on 3% (up one). This series doesn’t provide a published two-party result, but based on the last election this suggests a Labor lead of 50.5-49.5, down from around 51-49 last time. Scott Morrison has taken a hit on his personal ratings, down five on approval to 48% and up two on disapproval to 40%, while Anthony Albanese is down a point on both, to 31% and 44% respectively. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 46-23, unchanged in magnitude from 48-25 last time.

Full results from the poll, which was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1600, can be viewed here. This includes the poll’s usual results for leader attributes and best party to handle various issues, as well as breakdowns for all major questions by region and gender. After last month’s poll unusually found Labor doing better in New South Wales than Victoria, this result reverts to normal. The pollster has also been up and down in its gender breakdowns, having found Labor doing better among women in the second poll a month ago, but little gender gap in the first poll and the third.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,521 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 36, Greens 10”

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  1. Greensborough Growler @ #337 Wednesday, June 16th, 2021 – 5:48 pm

    BW,

    I reckon Rudd had his fingers crossed behind his back.

    Extravagant rhetoric is fine when a crisis is on.

    But most people know that spending millions on keeping toddlers locked up forever is not something most Australians will agree. My reckoning is that the Libs think they can turn this permanent incarceration of children in to an electoral winner.

    Shame on us if they succeed.

    They already have. How many elections ago were there still children on Nauru and the Coalition still won?

  2. Reichspotato is about to pay former AGJ … https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/02/peter-duttons-she-said-he-said-comment-regarding-brittany-higgins-used-in-defamation-defence

    It so feels like America before the WoI of 1776, France before the 1789, Australia before the mid Eureka … essentially you can’t keep the people, or a good dog, down.

    So from 2019 the Libs/ Nats put up Spinocchio, hands up who thing the ineligible Treasurer or his mate from QLD will be any better, for the serfs, rather than lobbyists/ acolytes/ courtiers of warlords/ merchant kings?

    If the system isn’t changed Australis will be heading down international scorecards, just like the Poms/ Yanks1

  3. guytaur @ #349 Wednesday, June 16th, 2021 – 6:13 pm

    @brucehawker tweets

    In NSW an unvaccinated frontline worker in his 60s has contracted Covid. Meanwhile in the UK, 20 year olds are now eligible to be vaccinated. @ScottMorrisonMP has really messed up the vaccine rollout.

    I just do not get how a guy whose job it was to drive the bus for international cabin crews was unvaccinated still? Either due to his own complacency, or the lackadaisical attitude of his employer to their staff?

  4. Is it possible for someone with knowledge of the matter, to comment on whether Toyota is dragging its feet on the development of hybrid and electric versions of the Hilux and light commercial vehicles?

    As background, this NZ article has the government refusing to accede to the demands of farmers, to drop a proposed levy (about $NZ3,000) on higher emission vehicles such as the Toyota Hilux, to fund a subsidy scheme for EVs. In the article Toyota NZ is quoted as saying it will quite some time before hybrid/electric Hilux and similar will be available.
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125455498/ardern-rules-out-exempting-farm-utes-from-clean-car-scheme

    Then I came across an article in https://www.caradvice.com.au/946198/toyota-pushes-back-every-model-will-be-hybrid-or-electric-target-from-2025-to-2030/ dated 20-4-21:

    Toyota has pushed back its target of having a hybrid or electric version of every model in its range by 2025 – to 2030 – because the world’s biggest car maker needs more time to develop advanced technology for its utes, vans and four-wheel-drives.

    It seems strange that Toyota is falling behind its competitors in developing hybrid and electric utes and light commercials after being a leader in hybrid technology over the years (we have a 2020 Corolla hybrid).

    Some comments on the article suggest that the current Toyota management in Japan has lobbied governments to resist stricter emissions standards in California (supporting Trump) and in UK.
    One might ask whether Toyota was in any way linked to the LNP’s anti EV campaign at the 2019 election where tradies’ utes featured.

    Fortunately, under stakeholder pressure, Toyota headquarters has announced it is reviewing its anti emissions reduction stance. Hopefully this will be reflected in debate from now until the next federal election.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/toyota-to-review-climate-stance-as-investors-turn-up-the-heat-2021-4?r=AU&IR=T dated 19-4-21.

  5. Comedy Gold from Chris Bowen 😀
    Scott Hamilton
    @SDHamiltonVIC

    “This is renewable energy, don’t be afraid:” Chris Bowen taunts Coalition in House of Reps.

  6. Come on Clive lift your game. Alan Bond is the guy to emulate. What a bravura performance as a shuffling confused doddery old man that was.

  7. Cat

    I think the gold standard is that turd covered in gold that gets mentioned from time to time.

    Remembering NSW has not declared itself the gold standard.

  8. Bert
    I share your views on a possible break down. I remarked to OH the other day that it would not at all surprise me if the proceedings end mid way with a PTSD diagnosis.

  9. Is this a hint, or a reminder of the “model litigant” expectati0ns of government?

    Peter Dutton and Shane Bazzi ordered to mediation

    Guardian Australia has confirmed that the defence minister, Peter Dutton, has been ordered to mediation with refugee activist, Shane Bazzi, who he is suing for defamation over a tweet.

    At the first case management hearing for the matter on Wednesday, Justice Richard White reportedly said it “would not be amongst the biggest defamation cases that have come before the court” and “should be able to be settled”. Dutton will have to personally attend mediation, which will be conducted before 31 August.

    The prospect of success is not high unless Dutton has a change of heart because – as Guardian Australia reported on Sunday – Bazzi has already deleted the tweet and committed not to make the accusation again, but Dutton pressed on, seeking an apology and damages. Bazzi is defending the case on the basis it was a fair comment or honest opinion.

    On Wednesday, Bazzi told Guardian Australia:

    “I look forward to and am happy to participate in that mediation process.”

  10. Karen Middleton
    @KarenMMiddleton
    ·
    1h
    The Greens just tried to intro a private senator’s bill to set up an inquiry into whether Christian Porter is a fit & proper person to serve as a minister, re historical rape allegations he denies. Govt took rare step of blocking its 1st reading. They usually allow more than that.

    Are we a parliamentary democracy in anything other than name only any more?

  11. poroti says:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 6:22 pm
    Come on Clive lift your game. Alan Bond is the guy to emulate. What a bravura performance as a shuffling confused doddery old man that was.

    Don’t forget Rupert M in London. He was quite impressive.

  12. Karen Andrews, yet another example of an incompetent religious nutter with no compassion for anyone doing it tough.
    We saw the mess that 4 years with Trump and the fanatics did, we’re getting the rerun, only the longer version.
    Coal or renewables, tax cuts for Corporates or help for the average Joe Blow, manufacturing overseas or here, all too hard, wrong every time.
    This is not the LN/P of 20 years ago. It has been taken over by those who think Church should control State. And the world will end before you know it so don’t worry about the debt.
    Continuation of slurs, lies, dodgy deals and pork barrelling like never seen before from now to the next election.
    Another three years of this, please no, no, no.

  13. Speaking of religious nutjobs. This is our Immigration Minister, Alex Hawker, from The Monthly’s archives:

    Young Libs in the chocolate factory
    “When I ask Alex [Hawke] about his own political heroes, he replies: ‘I’m not going to say Che Guevara or anything!’ His vision for Australia, influenced by his admiration for Reagan, Thatcher and Howard, involves lowering taxes and winding back the welfare state. But, as he acknowledges, the battle over economic rationalism has been all but won; his right-wing moral agenda is the harder sell. Alex has championed raising the age of consent, which he considers a child protection issue to stop gay men preying on the young. He also warns me that ‘abortion is not going to be off the agenda’, then adds, with a smile: ‘It’s going to be back, probably bigger and better.’”

  14. Youngest son asked me if I’d seen the friendlyjordies stuff (my response “I have people for that…”).

    He was outraged at the arrest.

    I told him that if he thought it was unfair, he could donate to their defence case….

    …he already had.

  15. citizen
    Oh yes, forgot about that one. Brought a tear to my eye to see Rupes endure “the most humble day” of his life 😆

  16. Stephen Jones MP @StephenJonesMP

    The Govt has done a deal on contentious super bills. We don’t know what. This is what’s at stake:
    locking workers into dud funds
    Axing life insurance for dangerous occupations
    Excluding the worst funds from scrutiny
    Allowing Frydenberg to take over super investments

  17. U.S. Nears 600,000 Virus Deaths Despite Progress From Vaccines.

    In the next few days, the United States will surpass 600,000 deaths from Covid-19, the highest known death toll in the world. The milestone approaches even though virus cases and deaths in this country have sharply fallen, vaccinations have been distributed widely, and many people have shed their masks and resumed prepandemic lives, including in New York and California, which both fully reopened on Tuesday.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/15/us/virus-deaths.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

  18. The Drum panel and Gray Connolly
    has agreed that when it comes to corruption NSW is the gold winner and sets the standard for the rest and will not reform itself. It needs an outside authority.

  19. Why is sQomo and Frydo wanting to tax our super?

    And the Liberals want to cripple the industry super funds which are guaranteeing our retirement?

  20. “Morrison’s only saving grace is he doesn’t have his tie running down his leg like Trump does.”

    If it didn’t have to travel so far to get over his fat guts it would be running down his leg.

  21. Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 7:04 pm

    Nah nah just more life experience than you do.

    But keep your imagination to yourself.

  22. Latest conspiracy theory from the USA is that the Repugs will win the 2022 mid terms, and seek to install Donald Trump as Speaker of the House.

    Apparently you don’t have to be an elected congressperson to be bestowed this position…

  23. @AdamBandt tweets

    A 2.5% minimum wage rise is a good start, but leaves a quarter of workers paid below the poverty line.

    Billionaires’ wealth soared by 30% during COVID.

    Workers deserve more than 2.5% – and under the Greens’ plan, we’d lift it to 60% of median wage.

  24. Herald Sun 16/06
    Firefighters have won another boost to their pay with more than 300 of the state’s top brass to be paid an extra $3m a year.

    Commanders and assistant chief fire officers have secured a 5.5 per cent “availability ­allowance” backdated to January 2020, while all members will receive a 2.5 per cent pay increase.

    “That 5.5 per cent of a base salary of around $170,000 is pretty good for doing absolutely nothing,” one member said. “Fire Rescue Victoria is just the gift that keeps on giving. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if a claim now goes in for all firefighters to get this availability allowance.”

    It is understood the allowance, for employees who are required to be available outside their normal shift, is paid even when officers are on leave and unable to respond to a job.
    ________________
    What’s the next allowance on the agenda?
    Whatever it is, Andrews will pay it.

  25. Zerlo

    Biden got Russia on board after all?

    I thought that meeting hadn’t happened and Russia joining the US was far fetched.

  26. Zoidy,

    You’re the one comparing the threat of Israel as opposed to China as a reasonable comparison.

    You really are an idiot.

  27. According to Australia Talks more than half of us accept that politicians are corrupt. Is that why people continue to vote for them because it has become accepted ss normal?

    With a proven liar leading the government there is no hope of reform.

  28. Lizzie

    We are into Trump territory.

    Liberal voters are joining the anyone but them as they turn into One Nation.

    Nikki Savva is not alone in thinking that. The only question is it enough.

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