I’m afraid in depth analysis of the result will have to wait until I’ve slept for just about the first time in 48 hours. I’ll just observe that that BludgerTrack thing on the sidebar isn’t looking too flash right now, to which the best defence I can offer is that aggregators gonna aggregate. Basically every poll at the end of the campaign showed Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5, and so therefore did BludgerTrack – whereas it looks like the final result will end up being more like the other way around. The much maligned seat polling actually wound up looking better than the national ones, though it was all too tempting at the time to relate their pecularities to a past record of leaning in favour of the Coalition. However, even the seat polls likely overstated Labor’s position, though the number crunching required to measure how much by will have to wait for later.
Probably the sharpest piece of polling analysis to emerge before the event was provided by Mark the Ballot, who offered a prescient look at the all too obvious fact that the polling industry was guilty of herding – and, in this case, it was herding to the wrong place. In this the result carries echoes of the 2015 election in Britain, when polling spoke in one voice of an even money bet between the Conservatives and Labour, when the latter’s vote share on the day proved to be fully 6% higher. This resulted in a period of soul-searching in the British polling industry that will hopefully be reflected in Australia, where pollsters are far too secretive about their methods and provide none of the breakdowns and weighting information that are standard for the more respected pollsters internationally. More on that at a later time.
Gorton at his best.
While the feelings in this household are overwhelmingly negative, sad mad disappointed and disheartened, it is time obviously time for reflection.
I think Clive’s purchase of a government went well for him, on paper no seats but a government that will approve and maybe even fund mining expansion in the name of jobs.
Obviously selling a campaign based on lies about your opponents and empty waftams about what you will do obviously works, Labor’s policies not only needed to much explaining and didn’t resonant but the number of them meant the campaign appeared disjointed and patchy. People are scared of change and the message from labor was change on steroids.
On the subject of Bill Shorten I was a fan but did note that while impressed with his speeches I didn’t like his delivery style, he was always going to be tarred with both the union tag and his role in the RGR wars.
Going forward we need a leader who can sell a message like Abbott and Morrison. I also think a campaign through social media to educate the electorate on economic issues such as the difference between income and taxable income and who benefits, what and how preferences work, how to understand the budget and most importantly how to fact check spin would help to break down the poor reporting of the MSM.
Well I’m off to watch insiders on catchup so when I get too stressed I can pause it and calm down.
Look after yourselves it’s quite a depressing time for the labor stalwarts
You’ve never met the SA Liberals, you?
“It’s not our platform or approach that needs changing. It’s the boundaries that are wrong.”
Confessions @ #847 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 2:05 pm
Alison misses the same points as Farr.
Statement from Wayne Swan —
On behalf of the Australian Labor Party I would like to thank all our Party members and supporters for their hard work and dedication during the election campaign.
The result is deeply disappointing and our Party has a responsibility to analyse the result and to respond maturely.
Attributing blame or fault to any particular individual or policy is not the way ahead.
Every political party which suffers a defeat learns one lesson and that is to listen even more carefully.
In light of this result we need to examine our policy framework and our campaign strategies.
Having a respectful and intelligent conversation with the Australian people has in the past shown Australia the best of Labor. We need to make sure we do that, reconnect where we’ve lost touch and cement the bonds that are the foundation of our great Party.
This result also has implications for the future of our democracy. A $60 million spend by a conservative-aligned billionaire in a preference recycling scheme for the Liberal and National Party cannot be allowed to stand.
We can’t allow our country to become a cheque-book democracy.
The characterisation of the Labor policy agenda as radical says more about the state of conservative politics in Australia than it does about Labor. There is no world in which Labor won’t stand for fair wages, a fair go, enhancing equality of opportunity and tackling dangerous climate change.
This policy framework was demonised by our political opponents, and yet these are all issues Australia will have to confront, and soon.
We owe it to our supporters and future generations of Australians to find a politics that connects the people with these urgent challenges.
Despair for those who love our country and are committed to a fairer society is not an option. Millions of Australians depend on Labor to be an effective political force as we were poignantly reminded through the death of Bob Hawke. He taught us that Australia is at its best when we don’t fear the future. The biggest risks to this country’s future today are growing inequality and climate change denial.
We acknowledge the extraordinary service to our Party of Bill Shorten over six deeply challenging years. We are all proud of the role he has played in reuniting our Party and refreshing our policy agenda, and I am pleased he will continue to serve in the Parliament.
The Party has got to dust itself off, rethink and reorganise.
If you check out the votes for Flynn, Capricornia and Dawson, you will see that the LNP vote stayed exactly the same and that the One Nation exactly mirrored the ALP drop. Those preferences then went surprisingly tightly to the LNP. Like it or loathe it, Central Qld wanted Adani. The ALP trying to sit on the fence and tell one story in Melbourne and the other in Qld and hope the others don’t find out was a gauranteed disaster from day one. No one likes to be treated as though they are stupid.
Rex:
She’s been in office for half a term.
Though, I suppose this isn’t particularly surprising from the person who has previously spruiked Paul Howes and Kristina Keneally (prior to her even entering federal Parliament) as potential leaders.
I’m pretty much used to Labor losing elections everyone thinks they’re going to win.
Henry Parkes. You don’t need a comb to be a statesman:
“No one likes to be treated as though they are stupid.”
Yes…but on the other hand they voted for Palmer / Phon which is a leading indicator of stupid.
Lazy.
Barnesy is good, but no match for Gillian and Lord:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69EcnxJmnd4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNZPNv0Df9c
Wayne Swan needs to examine and fix the psrty power structure in favor of the rank and file.
I’d be concerned at his lack of attention to this in his statement if I was a Labor member.
I think the earth has only 12 years left as I am told Queenslanders are going to fry the planet.
This religious fervor really needs to end and be replaced with some rational thought that isn’t about sacrificing our first born as a symbol of our fear, even though will have zero effect on anything else.
bc: “Be careful with the advice of economists.”
Indeed. And John Daley, head of the Grattan Institute, isn’t even a fully-fledged economist: he’s a management consultant, ex-McKinsey’s.
Andrews is really in an awkward position re the East/West tunnel. He will have to take the 4 billion from Morrison and it will make him look ridiculous. Which is obviously the whole point of it. Snookered!
“No one likes to be treated as though they are stupid.”
Suck it up, Princess – you’re stupid.
Asha Leu @ #857 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 2:10 pm
The blue collar workers in Queensland on the coal highway to hell would be a priority for her to get into new jobs.
nath @ #865 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 2:15 pm
It’s not awkward at all if the funding isn’t coming from state coffers.
I’ve got a terrible hangover…. might have to go for a hair of the dog soon……at what should have been a joyous party last night I was talking with some really upset folks…..I was one of the upset folks too.
Rex:
And I bet a left-wing, female union boss from inner city Melbourne is just the person who will win them over.
Farr’s take re Adani and climate change costings is what I was saying last night to anyone who would listen.
The “Queensland can’t have this mine because climate change, never you mind all those other coal mines in NSW that noone is demanding be closed” myopic focus on Adani was bad enough. Labor playing into it with the “never you mind what it will cost because not taking action costs more” made me fear a 5 point poll drop on the day it first happened… and had the polls been accurate that might indeed have been the case.
For all the other complaints about Labor’s failure to push its positive policies in health, education and wages, and failure to effectively counter the Liberal framing of Retiree Tax, Housing Tax etc, I do feel that the combo of Adani and the general “you don’t care about our jobs, you’re selling us out in the name of some ill-defined climate change policy that might not even do anything” vibe created through all of this is what did most of the damage.
Rex Douglas
says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 2:17 pm
nath @ #865 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 2:15 pm
Andrews is really in an awkward position re the East/West tunnel. He will have to take the 4 billion from Morrison and it will make him look ridiculous. Which is obviously the whole point of it. Snookered!
It’s not awkward at all if the funding isn’t coming from state coffers.
_______________________
It is a bit after paying 700 mill not to build it. But he will survive. He will look silly but he’s done well enough on other fronts.
BK
Re your table of possible ALP leaders
Having met both Tony Burke and Albo I have to say I like them both as potential leaders, but Tony is my choice.
We need someone who can distill ideas to their simplest message
Props to WB for backing Nath and for his own insight:
William Bowe
says:
Wednesday, September 26, 2018 at 2:39 am
It’s gravely disturbing what Nath has to put up with for declining to worship at the altar of a hack politician with a 54% disapproval rating.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 2:13 pm
And that’s of course based on your intricate knowledge of Labor’s internal structure?
BK re your leadership musings
I think Plibersek & Keneally are great but they have too much low hanging baggage for News Limited to hang them and not being men they won’t go down well in Queensland
Albanese is past it, remember the leader has to be in their prime in 3 years time so I think Chalmers at 41 is the best bet. He explained Labor policy far more clearly than Bowen and he is from Queensland – probably an inner urban lefty
NB My internet has collapsed so I am hotspotting. Thanks Termite Turnbull
Asha Leu @ #870 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 2:18 pm
She has Bill Shortens failures to learn from, doesn’t she.
Blue collar workers in Nth Qld and other coal mining communities want job security. Give it to them with clean industry jobs.
bc: “How confident are we that the person leading in the seats in doubt will win?”
More confident if they’re a Liberal, because of the way postal votes break to the Libs.
However, in Wentworth, the absentee votes might be helpful to Phelps: although I think Sharma is probably too far ahead for Kerryn to fight her way back.
I’m gonna put it out there. If there’s a candidate for a Labor leader who isn’t an uptight nerd or cardboard cutout, they’ll have my support. Hawke was popular because he was chill but still had gravitas. It’s the same reason people like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama did well, yet John Kerry, Al Gore and Hillary Clinton didn’t. It’s the same reason why Jean Chretien and Justin Trudeau did well but (insert all the forgettable Liberal leaders) didn’t. It’s the same reason Tony Blair did well but Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband… you get my point.
Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #875 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 2:21 pm
The current internal structure delivered Shorten, who was never the peoples’ man.
Give the power to the rank and file.
re The East West Tunnel promised in the week before the election. That $4 billion federal funding is NOT in the budget figures – so it was just a wedge
Having watched Jeremy Corbyn and UK Labor be useless in the face of a disintegrating Tory party, I can’t say that greater member control of the party has a lot of appeal – and I am a member.
The membership is always more extreme than the voter base. The leadership has to win over the voters, not preach to the converted.
Oakeshott Country @ #651 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 11:54 am
Australia does not deserve a Labor gov’t.
nath @ #872 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 2:19 pm
Depends what the cost/benefit is under these new terms.
Under the old terms it was a dud deal for Victorians.
Australians apparently find the clownshow of the past 9 months acceptable. So be it. And when we see what the Coalition didn’t tell us about their policies, what’s in the 2020 Budget, or a mini Budget later this year, that’s what Australia voted for. When we see the cuts in health, education and welfare, the privatisations, that’s what Australia voted for. When the next recession strikes in a year or two and the Government responds with austerity, that’s what Australia voted for.
Maybe we should remind people when these things come to pass.
As to the future of Labor and of progressive politics in this country, or of any decent politics, I have nothing useful to say so I’ll shut up for now.
Arky @ #882 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 12:25 pm
This. I didn’t vote for Albo in 2013 for this very reason. The party needs to appeal to swinging voters, not the rusted on base.
Frickeg: “My lefty heart wants to see Tanya Plibersek as leader, and I honestly think she’d do a great job and cut through pretty well. But I don’t know that, and neither does anyone else. If the victor turns out to be a mistake, it’s best to rectify it before the election rather than after losing it.”
Tanya has no cut through whatsoever, and once you got her you’d never get rid of her: it’s one thing tearing down a female leader who you are able to accuse of being a backstabber (ie, Gillard0, but if Tanya Plib gets elected into the job by the party, she’ll be able to stay there as long as she wants, no matter how poorly she performs.
IMO, if Labor goes down the Tanya P route, they can probably write off the 2022 election and possibly the 2025 one as well. There are people who live inside the political bubble and then there are people who live inside the “great wall of quinoa”. Tanya is one of the latter: she will have zero appeal in the outer suburbs or in places like Queensland and northern Tasmania. Don’t go there Labor.
zoomster @ #766 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 1:31 pm
Eeer no, the baby boomer bulge is still progressing through that boundary. It’s the gen blue who are fading fast but numerically overwhelmed by baby boomers.
Ok, how about a Chalmers/Kearney team ?
Youth, charisma, blue collar, engaging, social/environmental values, economic credentials…
It’s really vomitorious for bludgers who not only do not belong to Labor but who actively campaign against Labor to be giving out unsolicited advice about what Labor should or should not do. They do not have Labor’s best interests at heart.
Labor have to listen to the voters, including to all those voters who ignored our appeals. We exist to serve them. We owe nothing to those who set out to defeat us time and again.
I like Tanya Plibersek but think it would be a big mistake electing her as leader. But then, I’m shit at predictions so who knows. I think Albo will get it.
This is pretty tasteless but an indication of what the media has come to represent: clickbait.
https://mumbrella.com.au/how-the-sunday-telegraph-doorstepped-bob-hawkes-deathbed-580217
Onlooker @ #666 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 12:00 pm
I am a real ALP supporter and a member. I put the yards in to do my bit. It does not change the fact that anyone who enabled the Morrison gov’t is complicit in the predictable deaths from a warming planet. These deaths are happening now.
So what do you call some one who assists in the deaths of men, women and children by supporting a climate change denial party?
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 2:24 pm
Ah, yes of course!
Just like the Liberals, Nationals and Greens do.
That would have made all the difference.
Based on a very quick glance at the numbers right now, Chisholm is extremely like to go to LNP, and Macquarie is very likely to go. Lilley could possibly be lost as well, if the postals go really badly against the ALP.
Cowan seems safe at the moment.
Steve777 @ #885 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 2:28 pm
Yes, and is normally the case, our worse than useless media did not hold them to account.
Where was the question to government about their costings, about where their money is going to come from, because we all know where it will bloody well come from?
Hell, I would even like Labor to hammer these questions.
Speaking of Briefly. The ALP needs to get rid of their Red T shirts. It triggers communist associations in some simple minded people. Kevin had it about right:
Expat
Australia is in the top 15 largest economies in the world (nominal and per capita). We are the largest per capita carbon polluter.
Concerted and coordinated global action on climate change is fragile. Australias position is vital. And it is clear that one party is serous about it and the other not. You dont have to look hard – they have both demonstrated this.
I have seen planning efforts by Councils, Cities, Port Authorities, ecologists etc to prepare for climate change. As a student of history I know the effects changes in climate can have on internation relations. Armageddon was your choice of words. It isnt far off.
I completely reject that what we do here in Australia doesnt matter, that we are too small to make a difference so why bother, that maybe climate change wont be so bad, that the Liberals arent that much different to the ALP anyway.
Rational Leftist:
“It’s the same reason Tony Blair did well”
Except in the areas of sensible foreign policy and moral judgement. But don’t mind me, please carry on.
Puffy,
Just as well Australians don’t deserve a Labor govt, cos they sure ain’t getting it.
Where are all my “Qld is progressive! Look at their State government, plus The Tree of Knowledge!!!” people today? Where are all my awesome, progressive Boomers?
*Crickets*
Get in the bin.