Federal election 2019 live

Live coverage of the count for the 2019 federal election.

12.06am. “We’re bringing back Macquarie”, says Scott Morrison in his victory speech. Not so fast — Labor have just hit the lead there. And not because of that Katoomba pre-poll booth I mentioned a few times earlier, which barely swung on two-party preferred.

11.13pm. Kerryn Phelps has her nose in front in Wentworth, but I would note that the Rose Bay pre-poll hasn’t reported yet. It wasn’t a booth at the 2016 election but was at the by-election, and when it came in, there was a pretty handy shift to the Liberals. Also outstanding is the Waverley pre-poll booth, which does a very great deal of business.

10.59pm. The Liberals have edged into the lead in Boothby, after Glenelg pre-poll swung 4% their way (though Brighton went 3% the other way).

10.57pm. Labor just hanging on in Cowan, well out of contention now in Swan, and every other WA seat they hoped to win.

10.56pm. I was suggesting Labor wasn’t home in Moreton before. Probably safe now. But Mansfield pre-poll swung 14.4% to Coalition, while Rocklea and Wooldridge didn’t move.

10.39pm. With 45.8% counted, South Australia looks like three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens. Centre Alliance performing weakly at 2.8%.

10.38pm. Oh, and by the way — Clive Palmer is on 3.4% in Queensland and is being flogged by One Nation.

10.38pm. Jacqui Lambie is on 8.7% in Tasmania and should be back. The result should go two Liberal, two Labor and one Greens. 58.2% counted.

10.35pm. One Nation are on over 10% in Queensland, where I’m inclined to think the most likely result is Coalition two, Labor two, Greens one, One Nation one, with 33.4% counted.

10.34pm. Looks like three Coalition, two Labor and one Greens in Victoria too, with 32.4% counted. But maybe Labor could take a third seat off the Coalition, if their position improves as more metropolitan votes come in. No one else is cracking 3%.

10.32pm. Some early indications from the Senate. Starting in New South Wales, with 35.6% counted. One Nation aren’t doing great at 5%; United Australia Party tanking on 1.4%. Looks like three Coalition, two Labor and one Greens.

10.30pm. Labor leads 1.3% in Lilley, which Nine projects down to 0.5%. One pre-poll in swung slightly more heavily than the 5.2% norm; two more are still to come.

10.28pm. Labor leads 2.3% in Blair, which the Nine computer projects down to 0.9%. One pre-poll booth, Ipswich South, swung typically; two more are outstanding.

10.21pm. That Katoomba pre-poll booth in Macquarie which Anthony Albanese said had swung heavily to Labor still isn’t in the system. Labor has a raw lead of 1.3% lead there, but absent pre-polls (Katoomba and five others), the Nine computer projects absolutely nothing in it.

10.19pm. A 9.8% swing has reduced Labor to a 4.9% lead in Hunter, projected to be 2.7%. Should be okay for them, but the one pre-poll booth swung 14.1%, and there are eight still to come, whih are worth keeping at least half an eye on.

10.16pm. Labor leads 2.8% in Eden-Monaro, Nine computer projects 1.3%, 1.6% swing to Liberal. There are eight pre-polls, none of which have reported.

10.14pm. Labor leads by 2.0% in Dobell after a 3.5% swing to Liberal, with the Nine computer projecting 1.4%. Two pre-polls, Tuggerah and The Entrance, have swung normally. Pre-polls yet to come from Charmhaven and Gosford.

10.10pm. Independent Helen Haines holds what the Nine booth projects as a 1.8% lead in Indi: two pre-polls in, Wodonga, which swung heavily to Liberal, and Mansfield, which swung only very slightly (by swing here, I mean compared with Cathy McGowan’s margin of 4.8%). Wangaratta pre-poll still to come. Very much too close to call.

10.04pm. The Nine computer now projects a tiny lead for the Liberals in Chisholm. Four pre-polls still to come may decide the result. The one pre-poll that has reported, Blackburn North, swung 1.6% to Labor.

10.02pm. The yo-yo of Swan has swung back in favour of the Liberals, while Labor maintains only a fragile lead in Cowan. Still nothing in it in Boothby, Labor very slightly ahead.

9.44pm. Labor has very tenuous leads in Blair and Lilley, so there’s certainly paths to a Coalition majority. Other seats the Liberals wouldn’t be giving up on include Corangamite, Eden-Monaro and Moreton.

9.42pm. Now it’s getting very close in Chisholm. Other seats the Liberals wouldn’t be giving up on yet include Corangamite, Dobell, Eden-Monaro,

9.39pm. Spoke too soon about Swan — close again now.

9.34pm. Particularly remarkable results from scanning around include double-digit two-party swings against Labor in Hunter, Capricornia and, would you believe it, Dawson. The latter two suggest a very strong Adani effect.

9.30pm. Another blow for Labor with Swan now looking beyond their reach. However, they have moved ahead in Cowan, so it looks like status quo in WA.

9.21pm. Anthony Albanese just said on Nine that there is a big swing to Labor on the Katoomba pre-poll centre in Macquarie, which is not in the system yet. That should save Labor’s bacon there.

9.17pm. Very advanced stage of the count in Bass, with even the pre-polls in, and Labor look too far behind.

9.05pm. Both Labor-held Cowan and Liberal-held Swan are very close, but Liberals looking good in Hasluck, Pearce and Stirling. At best though, a net gain of one for Labor in WA.

8.54pm. And if all goes well for the Liberals in WA, the door widens a little on the prospect of a Coalition majority.

8.51pm. First results look encouraging for Christian Porter in Pearce. Ditto Stirling, but very few votes there. Some results in Cowan, looks close, but too early to be meaningful. First booth looks good for Liberal in Hasluck. Individually all too early to say, but collectively discouraging for the notion that WA might save the day for Labor.

8.48pm. Given pre-polls heavily favoured the Liberals at the Wentworth by-election, I would read the present lineball result as somewhat encouraging for the Liberals.

8.45pm. Haven’t said a thing about Wentworth — it looks very, very tight. A number of the independents failed to mark much of a mark, including Kevin Mack in Farrer and Rob Oakeshott in Cowper.

8.38pm. Labor looks okay in Solomon; the CLP leads on the raw vote in Lingiari, but the Nine computer projects them ahead, because these are mostly conservative booths from Katherine and such.

8.29pm. Another big picture overview. In New South Wales, Labor wins Gilmore but loses Lindsay; Tony Abbott loses Warringah. Labor-held Macquarie could go either way. Labor wins Chisholm, Corangamite and Dunkley. Tasmania: Labor loses Braddon and looking shaky in Bass. Queensland: Labor to lose Herbert and Longman, Leichhardt looking unlikely now. In South Australia, the potential Labor gain of Boothby is lineball. Talk that Labor is in danger in Lingiari, but the Nine computer projects them in the lead, and there’s nothing from Solomon yet. Nothing meaningful yet from Western Australia. My best guess remains that the Coalition will land just short of a majority, but the wild cards of WA and pre-polls remain in the deck.

8.20pm. By best guess is that the Coalition will land a few seats short of a majority, but again: nothing yet from WA, and the possibility it will play out differently on pre-polls. The likely cross bench: Adam Bandt, Zali Steggall, Bob Katter, Andrew Wilkie, Rebekha Sharkie … possibly Helen Haines, probably not Kerryn Phelps.

8.14pm. I’ve been doing real work for the last half hour, but the situation hasn’t fundamentally changed: a few gains for Labor in Victoria, maybe a net gain for the Coalition in New South Wales, Braddon and possibly Bass lost by Labor in Tasmania as well, and a net loss for Labor in Queensland. Boothby lineball though, and Labor praying for gains in Western Australia and a favourable dynamic on pre-polls.

7.48pm. Macquarie lineball, but looking better for Labor than earlier.

7.46pm. Also, the first results in Boothby are good for Labor.

7.45pm. Looking better for Labor now in Lilley though.

7.40pm. Labor should gain three in Victoria; but only Gilmore looks strong in NSW, they look like losing Lindsay, and they’re in trouble in Macquarie. In Queensland, the Nine computer has Labor behind in Blair, Herbert, and Longman, but it’s not calling any of them. However, they are running Warren Entsch close in Leichhardt.

7.33pm. I’m certainly not seeing any gains for Labor in Queensland, and they’re in trouble in Herbert, Longman and Lilley. But Tony Abbott is clearly gone in Warringah.

7.29pm. Looks close in Herbert, but Labor are struggling in Queensland in some surprising places: Lilley

7.26pm. Labor should win Chisholm, Dunkley and Corangamite, but the seats further down the pendulum in Victoria don’t appear to be swinging

7.23pm. Lineball in Macquarie as well.

7.22pm. Looking dicey for Labor in Lindsay as well.

7.21pm. Still nothing in it in Bass, Liberals looking like winning Braddon.

7.19pm. Early assessment: it’s going to be close. Labor far from assured of a majority.

7.18pm. But it’s looking good for Labor in Gilmore.

7.13pm. Early days, but I’m not seeing any great wave to Labor. They are struggling in the two northern Tasmanian seats, and only looking really good in Corangamite in Victoria. And it looks close early in Griffith, a seat they hold in Queensland.

7.12pm. Early indications are that it’s close in Chisholm – six booths in on primary, two on two-party (50 in total).

7.09pm. Labor have moved ahead on Nine’s projection in Bass, but remain behind in Braddon.

7.08pm. If nothing else, the news from Queensland is consistently looking good for the Coalition.

7.06pm. The swing to LNP in Bonner I noted earlier has come off, now looking status quo (LNP margin 3.4%).

7.05pm. Dreadful early numbers for Tony Abbott, who trails 40.3% to 32.5% on the raw primary vote with five booths out of 50 in.

7.02pm. The Nine computer sees a 3.9% swing to Labor in Corangamite, where there is no margin.

7.01pm. Related by Chris Uhlmann, Labor believes they have won Corangamite. But the overall picture in Queensland for the Coalition looks strong, as per the exit poll result.

7.00pm. Early numbers looking encouraging for Peter Dutton in Dickson — a swing approaching 5% in his favour off four booths.

6.58pm. Labor look to have the edge in Gilmore, with 13 booths out of 66 on the primary vote – Liberal down 17.4% of which 12.7% has gone to the Nationals, while Labor are down very slightly. Ex-Liberal independent Grant Schultz only on 5.3%.

6.56pm. Four booths in from Braddon, and Labor looks in trouble. One booth in from Bass, swing looks almost exactly equal to the Labor margin.

6.54pm. Based on four primary vote results and a speculative preference throw, the Nine computer sees a 4.25% swing to Labor in La Trobe, suggesting it will be tight.

6.52pm. First two-party result in Bonner is encouraging for LNP incumbent Ross Vasta.

6.51pm. The first two-party booth from Corangamite, which is obviously in the country, has swung 5.4% to Labor.

6.50pm. Little swing in Macquarie with three booths in on two-party (it goes without saying these are small ones).

6.47pm. Gilmore looks close with eight booths out of 66 in on the primary vote.

6.43pm. First two booths from Kooyong, albeit very small ones, look encouraging for Josh Frydenberg.

6.42pm. Promising early numbers for independent Helen Haines in Indi, with 13 bush booths in on the primary vote.

6.38pm. Some fairly encouraging early numbers for Nationals member Kevin Hogan in Page, a marginal seat in northern New South Wales that Labor was never confident about.

6.35pm. Over 1000 votes in from Calare, and early indications are Nationals incumbent Andrew Gee will keep enough of his primary vote to hold off Shooters, if they indeed make it ahead of Labor to reach the final count. Early days yet though.

5.45pm. Welcome to live blogging of the federal election count. I have been working in what little time I have had to spare on an election results facility, but I probably won’t be able to get it in action this evening. However, I should be able to make it functional for the count after election night. Similarly, I may or may not find time to do some live blogging this evening, in between my duties as a behind-the-scenes operator for the Nine Network’s coverage. Speaking of, the YouGov Galaxy exit poll for Nine, from a sample of about 3300, has Labor leading 52-48, which I’m pretty sure presumes to be effectively nationally, even though only specific marginal seats have been targeted. State by state though, the swing is, as expected, uneven: 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales (2.5% swing to Labor), 55-45 in Victoria (3.2% swing to Labor), 53-47 to Coalition in Queensland (a swing to the Coalition of 1.1%), and 52-48 to Labor in the other three states combined (a swing to Labor of 2.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,922 comments on “Federal election 2019 live”

  1. Right, what’s the first culture ear the LNP will now prosecute?

    Privatise the ABC? Ban organisations like GetUp, or at least change the law enough so that they cannot effectively operate?

    If there’s a lesson here, it’s that the left overall needs to sort Labor, if they want to get anywhere near power.

    And the ALP needs to go into a campaign promising no losers, no matter how rich they are. It’s crap, but that’s the way it is, it seems.

  2. “This absolute nonsense about Global Warming bringing destruction because Australia didn’t do something is utter silliness. What Australia dose domestically has an extremely small effect.
    If you REALLY wanted to do something you would be having a policy that harassed the crap out of the major global polluters who do nothing, whilst saying they do something.
    Bizarre – some want Australia to self destruct to feel virtuous, but you don’t have the right to commit every Australian to that act – and as it turned out, Australians reject that notion.”

    Yep.

    I reckon that although Abbott lost tonight, ostensibly on climate change, he actually departs having won the climate wars emphatically.

  3. Well, no one saw this result coming.

    All I hope for now is that Morrison ends up in a minority government – but I think he will sneak in with an overall majority of 1 or 2.

    Abbott gone. Thank goodness.

  4. “And the ALP needs to go into a campaign promising no losers, no matter how rich they are. It’s crap, but that’s the way it is, it seems.”

    Yep. Get the fuckers whilst in power. Even then groundwater would have to be laid to protect the government from the kind of campaign that the minining industry ran back in 2010 (run by Labor’s last successful advertising agency as well. The fuckers).

  5. “AngoraFish says:
    Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 1:53 am
    Both the ALP and the Greens ran hard on climate change because polling told us that 60 per cent of Victorians and 57 per cent of Queenslanders believe Australia is facing a climate change emergency… oh, right.”

    Looks like the mistake was assuming that meant people wanted to do anything about it.

    I guess part of the problem is that nothing is being offered to the people who are going to suffer right now, by losing their job in the mine.

    It isn’t the hike in the ground that people care about, it’s the putting food on the table bit.

  6. This election was the newly elected Rudd government not finding and proclaiming the structural deficit, from the Howard Government`s profligate spending temporary mining boom income on permanent tax loophole policies, almost immiadiately upon their election and then fixing them, coming home to roost.

  7. “All I hope for now is that Morrison ends up in a minority government – but I think he will sneak in with an overall majority of 1 or 2.”

    I’m hoping for minority government and then the wonders of s.44 to take hold. Dutton. Frydenberg. …

  8. What’s with all of the blaming Queensland voters from so many Labor supporters? Sure it is frustrating to see people like George Christenesen pick up double digit swings, but blaming the voter and abrogating responsibility is always a pretty pointless and pathetic road to go down. In any event it looks like the ALP only lost two seats in Queensland which should have been easily offset by the swag of Victorian seats that were supposedly going to end up on Labors tally courtesy of all the enlightened Victorian progressives. Talk of seats like Kooyong and Higgins all looks a little bit ridiculous now when they can’t even bag a seat like Chisholm.

  9. Thinking of how to win more elderly voters by imitating conservative messaging.

    Step 1: Appeal to a mythical past that never existed (doesn’t have to be based on reality)
    Step 2: Blame everything on the young
    Step 3: Give the young a patronizing compliment (they are our children after all)
    Step 4: Make the conservatives a party of a scary future
    Step 5: Have some weird anecdote of a conservative teaching something horrible to the youth

    So something like this 😀

    “In my day we never treated boat people the way we do today. We were the land of the fair go, bringing about Universal healthcare and our air was clean and unpolluted. The millenials these days are too busy eating avocado on toast to care about refugees and the environment. I mean, don’t get me wrong, they are the future and they have a good heart. They just lack a bit of common sense that comes with age. Its not their fault though. Its all theirs pointy headed clueless academics teaching our children that have lost contact with reality. In my own seat I had a chin wag with a young fella who was told by their University professor that sweatshop labour is necessary for capitalism to work. Can you imagine anyone saying that in our day? We would have gotten a real spank and been dragged straight off to church! But that’s what the conservatives want don’t they? To corrupt our children with their indoctrination to take away jobs, healthcare, you name it!”

    I actually think that would work 😀

  10. “Both the ALP and the Greens ran hard on climate change because polling told us that 60 per cent of Victorians and 57 per cent of Queenslanders believe Australia is facing a climate change emergency”

    People love sounding virtuous on such issues when talking to pollsters, but when framed as an an economic issue, with an inherent degree of future cost and economic risk, then that concern suddenly disappears. The hip pocket always wins. Sad, but true.

  11. Angorafish I think the only way we can increase the wages of low skilled workers significantly within the liberal economic framework we are stuck with is with working tax credits ie we pay some of their wage.

    The question is how to fund it without scaring those in the next income tier up that their going to pay for it.I am too tired too think about that just now but I hope whoever next leads the Labor party has a good look at it.

  12. Worst state swing for labor – Qld
    Worst age demographic for labor – Boomers.

    It’s a vindication of everything I’ve posted the past three months. How comforting.

  13. The End

    Labor’s ad campaign was woeful based on my exposure.
    After Morrison and that grub consumated that vile preference agreement where was the ad showing the grub owing his workers millions of dollars in entitlements and smirky mcsmirkface cosying up and the fact that taxpayers had bailed the slime ball out to the tune of $70 million on high rotation?

    To me it looked like labor were the ones who were broke.

    Yes, and that is because Labor relay on the $10 or $20 that people like me can chuck them over the campaign. So, they we’re broke. This is why the ALP could not counter the Coalition’s negative and mendacious advertising campaign.

    On the other hand, the Liberals coffers are never actually empty – Clive and friends will fund a third organisation that will provide wall-to-wall negative advertising against the ALP.

    Even better, it never appears on the Coalition donation records.

  14. 1. Labor’s ad campaign was crap.

    2. Daniel Andrews’ win in Victoria was a false flag that led Labor up the garden path.

    3. Polls are an increasingly useless metric in the age of the smart phone.

    4. And, as my son succinctly put it:

    ‘Who isn’t going to vote for more money for themselves!?!’ And that’s what the people on between $40000 and $200000 did. It might only be $11 per week, instead of $11000 but in an age of deliberate wage stagnation, that’s better than nothing.

    5. Oh, and Unions, and what they are trying to sell, are toxic.

  15. And that’s what the people on between $40000 and $200000 did.

    Not all of them. And of course the logic behind voting for the $11 per week pittance instead of voting for the party promising to end the deliberate wage stagnation is pretty twisted.

    Though agree with pretty much all the other points.

  16. BK says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 8:51 pm
    The Greens’ Adani trek to Queensland has all but ensured now that the mine will go ahead.

    Yup. The Gs will the use the existence of the mine to campaign against Labor forever and a day.

  17. briefly @ #1919 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 9:19 am

    BK says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 8:51 pm
    The Greens’ Adani trek to Queensland has all but ensured now that the mine will go ahead.

    Yup. The Gs will the use the existence of the mine to campaign against Labor forever and a day.

    No. Anyone who sees this result and thinks it means that the Greens and Labor need to campaign against each other more is a fool.

  18. I feel both dispirited and angry. Dispirited because so many wealthy Australians accept the subsidies for their “private” education, “private” health and “private” childcare from the poor and don’t give a bugger about the education, health and childcare of the people making the contribution.

    Worse, is the entitlement of the “self-funded” retirees. Bill is wrong when he says franking credits to retirees is a gift from Treasury. It is a gift typically from families earning $60,000 to $80,000 who make this gift to the children of rich people at the expense of their own children’s education, health and childcare. Yet the “self-funded” retirees have no shame and, I think, genuinely believe they are entitled to this gift from the poor.

    My anger is directed at the Greens. Any politician who thought a cavalcade of southern protesters lecturing the North Queenslanders about their lifestyle would yield positive results is a fool. George Christianson would have seen this stupidity as manna from heaven. The swing against Labor starts at this point.

    But, of course, the Greens are consistent. Blocking the ETS led to a decade of climate wars and blocking “the Malaysian Solution” enabled the successful Tory “turn-back-the-boats” strategy. I am not normally into conspiracy theory but the idea the Greens were established by the Tories to destroy Labor is appealing. They really are a cancer on the body polity.

  19. From Margaret Saville’s Crikey article on Dickson:

    “One of the booth workers estimated that the Liberal Party had spent more than a million dollars on campaign advertising and materials in their quest to get Dutton, on a wafer-thin margin, over the line.

    Every household in the electorate had received about 50 pieces of Liberal Party direct mail, she said, and the electorate was plastered with unnervingly large photographs of the minister, spruiking his ability to spend zillions of dollars on a highway.”

    Clive had double page ads in the Courier Mail warning about Chinese airports. Queensland was awash in it. I thought Palmer’s shafting of workers would be proof against it; could not have been more wrong.

    The ALP were up against serious money and industrial scale lies and bluff. It’s harder to cut through when someone else buys all the billboards.

    FWIW from north of the Tweed, which honestly feels like the far side of the moon right now.

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