Federal election 2019 live

Live coverage of the count for the 2019 federal election.

12.06am. “We’re bringing back Macquarie”, says Scott Morrison in his victory speech. Not so fast — Labor have just hit the lead there. And not because of that Katoomba pre-poll booth I mentioned a few times earlier, which barely swung on two-party preferred.

11.13pm. Kerryn Phelps has her nose in front in Wentworth, but I would note that the Rose Bay pre-poll hasn’t reported yet. It wasn’t a booth at the 2016 election but was at the by-election, and when it came in, there was a pretty handy shift to the Liberals. Also outstanding is the Waverley pre-poll booth, which does a very great deal of business.

10.59pm. The Liberals have edged into the lead in Boothby, after Glenelg pre-poll swung 4% their way (though Brighton went 3% the other way).

10.57pm. Labor just hanging on in Cowan, well out of contention now in Swan, and every other WA seat they hoped to win.

10.56pm. I was suggesting Labor wasn’t home in Moreton before. Probably safe now. But Mansfield pre-poll swung 14.4% to Coalition, while Rocklea and Wooldridge didn’t move.

10.39pm. With 45.8% counted, South Australia looks like three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens. Centre Alliance performing weakly at 2.8%.

10.38pm. Oh, and by the way — Clive Palmer is on 3.4% in Queensland and is being flogged by One Nation.

10.38pm. Jacqui Lambie is on 8.7% in Tasmania and should be back. The result should go two Liberal, two Labor and one Greens. 58.2% counted.

10.35pm. One Nation are on over 10% in Queensland, where I’m inclined to think the most likely result is Coalition two, Labor two, Greens one, One Nation one, with 33.4% counted.

10.34pm. Looks like three Coalition, two Labor and one Greens in Victoria too, with 32.4% counted. But maybe Labor could take a third seat off the Coalition, if their position improves as more metropolitan votes come in. No one else is cracking 3%.

10.32pm. Some early indications from the Senate. Starting in New South Wales, with 35.6% counted. One Nation aren’t doing great at 5%; United Australia Party tanking on 1.4%. Looks like three Coalition, two Labor and one Greens.

10.30pm. Labor leads 1.3% in Lilley, which Nine projects down to 0.5%. One pre-poll in swung slightly more heavily than the 5.2% norm; two more are still to come.

10.28pm. Labor leads 2.3% in Blair, which the Nine computer projects down to 0.9%. One pre-poll booth, Ipswich South, swung typically; two more are outstanding.

10.21pm. That Katoomba pre-poll booth in Macquarie which Anthony Albanese said had swung heavily to Labor still isn’t in the system. Labor has a raw lead of 1.3% lead there, but absent pre-polls (Katoomba and five others), the Nine computer projects absolutely nothing in it.

10.19pm. A 9.8% swing has reduced Labor to a 4.9% lead in Hunter, projected to be 2.7%. Should be okay for them, but the one pre-poll booth swung 14.1%, and there are eight still to come, whih are worth keeping at least half an eye on.

10.16pm. Labor leads 2.8% in Eden-Monaro, Nine computer projects 1.3%, 1.6% swing to Liberal. There are eight pre-polls, none of which have reported.

10.14pm. Labor leads by 2.0% in Dobell after a 3.5% swing to Liberal, with the Nine computer projecting 1.4%. Two pre-polls, Tuggerah and The Entrance, have swung normally. Pre-polls yet to come from Charmhaven and Gosford.

10.10pm. Independent Helen Haines holds what the Nine booth projects as a 1.8% lead in Indi: two pre-polls in, Wodonga, which swung heavily to Liberal, and Mansfield, which swung only very slightly (by swing here, I mean compared with Cathy McGowan’s margin of 4.8%). Wangaratta pre-poll still to come. Very much too close to call.

10.04pm. The Nine computer now projects a tiny lead for the Liberals in Chisholm. Four pre-polls still to come may decide the result. The one pre-poll that has reported, Blackburn North, swung 1.6% to Labor.

10.02pm. The yo-yo of Swan has swung back in favour of the Liberals, while Labor maintains only a fragile lead in Cowan. Still nothing in it in Boothby, Labor very slightly ahead.

9.44pm. Labor has very tenuous leads in Blair and Lilley, so there’s certainly paths to a Coalition majority. Other seats the Liberals wouldn’t be giving up on include Corangamite, Eden-Monaro and Moreton.

9.42pm. Now it’s getting very close in Chisholm. Other seats the Liberals wouldn’t be giving up on yet include Corangamite, Dobell, Eden-Monaro,

9.39pm. Spoke too soon about Swan — close again now.

9.34pm. Particularly remarkable results from scanning around include double-digit two-party swings against Labor in Hunter, Capricornia and, would you believe it, Dawson. The latter two suggest a very strong Adani effect.

9.30pm. Another blow for Labor with Swan now looking beyond their reach. However, they have moved ahead in Cowan, so it looks like status quo in WA.

9.21pm. Anthony Albanese just said on Nine that there is a big swing to Labor on the Katoomba pre-poll centre in Macquarie, which is not in the system yet. That should save Labor’s bacon there.

9.17pm. Very advanced stage of the count in Bass, with even the pre-polls in, and Labor look too far behind.

9.05pm. Both Labor-held Cowan and Liberal-held Swan are very close, but Liberals looking good in Hasluck, Pearce and Stirling. At best though, a net gain of one for Labor in WA.

8.54pm. And if all goes well for the Liberals in WA, the door widens a little on the prospect of a Coalition majority.

8.51pm. First results look encouraging for Christian Porter in Pearce. Ditto Stirling, but very few votes there. Some results in Cowan, looks close, but too early to be meaningful. First booth looks good for Liberal in Hasluck. Individually all too early to say, but collectively discouraging for the notion that WA might save the day for Labor.

8.48pm. Given pre-polls heavily favoured the Liberals at the Wentworth by-election, I would read the present lineball result as somewhat encouraging for the Liberals.

8.45pm. Haven’t said a thing about Wentworth — it looks very, very tight. A number of the independents failed to mark much of a mark, including Kevin Mack in Farrer and Rob Oakeshott in Cowper.

8.38pm. Labor looks okay in Solomon; the CLP leads on the raw vote in Lingiari, but the Nine computer projects them ahead, because these are mostly conservative booths from Katherine and such.

8.29pm. Another big picture overview. In New South Wales, Labor wins Gilmore but loses Lindsay; Tony Abbott loses Warringah. Labor-held Macquarie could go either way. Labor wins Chisholm, Corangamite and Dunkley. Tasmania: Labor loses Braddon and looking shaky in Bass. Queensland: Labor to lose Herbert and Longman, Leichhardt looking unlikely now. In South Australia, the potential Labor gain of Boothby is lineball. Talk that Labor is in danger in Lingiari, but the Nine computer projects them in the lead, and there’s nothing from Solomon yet. Nothing meaningful yet from Western Australia. My best guess remains that the Coalition will land just short of a majority, but the wild cards of WA and pre-polls remain in the deck.

8.20pm. By best guess is that the Coalition will land a few seats short of a majority, but again: nothing yet from WA, and the possibility it will play out differently on pre-polls. The likely cross bench: Adam Bandt, Zali Steggall, Bob Katter, Andrew Wilkie, Rebekha Sharkie … possibly Helen Haines, probably not Kerryn Phelps.

8.14pm. I’ve been doing real work for the last half hour, but the situation hasn’t fundamentally changed: a few gains for Labor in Victoria, maybe a net gain for the Coalition in New South Wales, Braddon and possibly Bass lost by Labor in Tasmania as well, and a net loss for Labor in Queensland. Boothby lineball though, and Labor praying for gains in Western Australia and a favourable dynamic on pre-polls.

7.48pm. Macquarie lineball, but looking better for Labor than earlier.

7.46pm. Also, the first results in Boothby are good for Labor.

7.45pm. Looking better for Labor now in Lilley though.

7.40pm. Labor should gain three in Victoria; but only Gilmore looks strong in NSW, they look like losing Lindsay, and they’re in trouble in Macquarie. In Queensland, the Nine computer has Labor behind in Blair, Herbert, and Longman, but it’s not calling any of them. However, they are running Warren Entsch close in Leichhardt.

7.33pm. I’m certainly not seeing any gains for Labor in Queensland, and they’re in trouble in Herbert, Longman and Lilley. But Tony Abbott is clearly gone in Warringah.

7.29pm. Looks close in Herbert, but Labor are struggling in Queensland in some surprising places: Lilley

7.26pm. Labor should win Chisholm, Dunkley and Corangamite, but the seats further down the pendulum in Victoria don’t appear to be swinging

7.23pm. Lineball in Macquarie as well.

7.22pm. Looking dicey for Labor in Lindsay as well.

7.21pm. Still nothing in it in Bass, Liberals looking like winning Braddon.

7.19pm. Early assessment: it’s going to be close. Labor far from assured of a majority.

7.18pm. But it’s looking good for Labor in Gilmore.

7.13pm. Early days, but I’m not seeing any great wave to Labor. They are struggling in the two northern Tasmanian seats, and only looking really good in Corangamite in Victoria. And it looks close early in Griffith, a seat they hold in Queensland.

7.12pm. Early indications are that it’s close in Chisholm – six booths in on primary, two on two-party (50 in total).

7.09pm. Labor have moved ahead on Nine’s projection in Bass, but remain behind in Braddon.

7.08pm. If nothing else, the news from Queensland is consistently looking good for the Coalition.

7.06pm. The swing to LNP in Bonner I noted earlier has come off, now looking status quo (LNP margin 3.4%).

7.05pm. Dreadful early numbers for Tony Abbott, who trails 40.3% to 32.5% on the raw primary vote with five booths out of 50 in.

7.02pm. The Nine computer sees a 3.9% swing to Labor in Corangamite, where there is no margin.

7.01pm. Related by Chris Uhlmann, Labor believes they have won Corangamite. But the overall picture in Queensland for the Coalition looks strong, as per the exit poll result.

7.00pm. Early numbers looking encouraging for Peter Dutton in Dickson — a swing approaching 5% in his favour off four booths.

6.58pm. Labor look to have the edge in Gilmore, with 13 booths out of 66 on the primary vote – Liberal down 17.4% of which 12.7% has gone to the Nationals, while Labor are down very slightly. Ex-Liberal independent Grant Schultz only on 5.3%.

6.56pm. Four booths in from Braddon, and Labor looks in trouble. One booth in from Bass, swing looks almost exactly equal to the Labor margin.

6.54pm. Based on four primary vote results and a speculative preference throw, the Nine computer sees a 4.25% swing to Labor in La Trobe, suggesting it will be tight.

6.52pm. First two-party result in Bonner is encouraging for LNP incumbent Ross Vasta.

6.51pm. The first two-party booth from Corangamite, which is obviously in the country, has swung 5.4% to Labor.

6.50pm. Little swing in Macquarie with three booths in on two-party (it goes without saying these are small ones).

6.47pm. Gilmore looks close with eight booths out of 66 in on the primary vote.

6.43pm. First two booths from Kooyong, albeit very small ones, look encouraging for Josh Frydenberg.

6.42pm. Promising early numbers for independent Helen Haines in Indi, with 13 bush booths in on the primary vote.

6.38pm. Some fairly encouraging early numbers for Nationals member Kevin Hogan in Page, a marginal seat in northern New South Wales that Labor was never confident about.

6.35pm. Over 1000 votes in from Calare, and early indications are Nationals incumbent Andrew Gee will keep enough of his primary vote to hold off Shooters, if they indeed make it ahead of Labor to reach the final count. Early days yet though.

5.45pm. Welcome to live blogging of the federal election count. I have been working in what little time I have had to spare on an election results facility, but I probably won’t be able to get it in action this evening. However, I should be able to make it functional for the count after election night. Similarly, I may or may not find time to do some live blogging this evening, in between my duties as a behind-the-scenes operator for the Nine Network’s coverage. Speaking of, the YouGov Galaxy exit poll for Nine, from a sample of about 3300, has Labor leading 52-48, which I’m pretty sure presumes to be effectively nationally, even though only specific marginal seats have been targeted. State by state though, the swing is, as expected, uneven: 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales (2.5% swing to Labor), 55-45 in Victoria (3.2% swing to Labor), 53-47 to Coalition in Queensland (a swing to the Coalition of 1.1%), and 52-48 to Labor in the other three states combined (a swing to Labor of 2.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,922 comments on “Federal election 2019 live”

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  1. “I wonder how many votes Labor would have got if it promised put all Dental Care under Medicare for example?”

    The ALP n that basis made the mistake of thinking they needed to be responsible. So yes, they should have done that without the franking credit changes.

    They should have said they would support Adani, and offset the CO2 by giving everyone free solar panels.

    Paid for it all by “efficiency dividends” and maybe selling the national gallery.

  2. ‘I wouldn’t cite the polls of Clinton v. Trump too much. She did beat his national vote considerably. National polls don’t account for massive swings in states that were taken for granted.’

    Yes, I was a bit lazy and did not seek out the polls showing massive state wins for Clinton, nor did I bother to find the quotes from pollsters and pundits how Clinton was a 99% certainty. But I figured people would know all that stuff.

  3. PuffyTMD:

    The funny thing is Morrison locked in 80billion or more of spending hoping to nobble an ALP government. Now he has to deal with it without any extra tevenue raising capacity.

    Wise words Puff – he didn’t really expect to have to deliver anything (“we’ve delivered a surplus next year…”). It would be particularly funny if he has now to do it having lost his Treasurer (I am not suggesting this will happen, though there is a slight chance it will)

  4. My 2c here is that I suspect Labor could have won with an ambitious policy platform, or they could have won with an unpopular leader, but in the end they couldn’t win with both. Led by someone generally liked – or at least not disliked – they might have overcome the scare campaign. With a small-target campaign, they might have won under Shorten. I think it was the combination of these two factors that did them in, rather than either one in isolation. Whether the next election is 2001 (narrowly re-elected government consolidates power) or 1996 (surprisingly re-elected government becomes deeply unpopular) remains to be seen.

    It’s a pity that this will lead to timidity by oppositions in proposing new ideas, but there’s no use pretending that it won’t.

  5. Bowen out to some minor portfolio. Burke ditto. i’d keep Shorten, he has policy development smarts. KK in too.

  6. Guytaur
    Face facts. Australia is at this moment, adverse to anything progressive.
    We are nation of syphillis-laden reproductive body parts. We should be ashamed to show our faces to the rest of the world.

    It is not Labor’s time.

    And I am glad Bob Hawke did not have to see the final degeneration, into the slime, of the nation he steered on the path to greatness.

    Liberal and National voters have a lot to answer for and may their great-grand-children learn to curse their cowardice and greed.

  7. “nath says:
    Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 1:21 am
    maybe selling the national gallery.
    ROFL. oh it hurts to laugh…”

    Yeah, fair enough. That was hyperbole. Reckon it works have got more votes than the Adani convoy did for the left.

    Anyway, it doesn’t look like you need to run a campaign saying things you’ll ever actually do. Just say you’ll sell it, and you’ll raise 11 billionty dollars and that’ll pay for everyone’s free solar panels.

  8. Hmm, the dental care thing was weak. Go hard or go home, be bold, I would have announced it as the first step towards all dental coming under Medicare.

  9. Queenslanders voted against fluoride in their water systems. And they have the worst teeth in the nation. They don’t care. They think it’s a government conspiracy to sedate people with fluoride. They are fuckin insane.

  10. clem

    The Caucus should think very carefully before overruling the members vote.
    Choosing Shorten did unite the party. So that worked.

    However maybe just one election then back to the members choice would have been better. We will never know.

  11. Blobbit @ #1843 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 1:13 am

    So, of its Corbyn or Sanders the people want, why didn’t the Greens go gangbusters? Or were they not progressive enough even?

    That’s the thing, though.

    If you’re predisposed to the idea that Australians as a whole will always accept progressive policies, and then they reject those for more conservative ones, then you have to believe that either those ideas weren’t sold very well or weren’t actually progressive at all; otherwise, it would mean that right-wing voters aren’t just Green voters who’ve lost their way.

  12. surprisingly re-elected government becomes deeply unpopular

    Oh, there’s no question that Morrison and his “team” are going to be deeply unpopular.

    Although at the moment I’m struggling to work out how anyone is going to know this given, yknow, opinion polls and all that.

  13. “Hmm, the dental care thing was weak”

    The ALP believed they needed to prove they were economically responsible. It seems they didn’t. They should have paid for things by selling weird assets the government has that most people in rural QLD have never heard of.

    Then if they won, just not done it.

  14. Dentists and doctors in Queensland are reporting “extensive tooth decay” in parts of the state that refuse to add fluoride to the water supply, especially among children and the elderly.
    One in four Queensland children admitted to hospital requires treatment for a dental condition, according to the most recent report by the state’s chief medical officer.


  15. I wonder if suddenly, plugging the Franking Credit loophole may be attractive to a Morrison govt in need of money. And pulling in negative gearing.

    After all Morrison never ruled out doing it.

    That would be too funny.

  16. “The ALP n that basis made the mistake of thinking they needed to be responsible. So yes, they should have done that without the franking credit changes.”

    In hindsight the obsession with getting all the savings announced from opposition so that your costings look better than the government’s was falling into the trap of fighting the last election.

    Franking credits is a massive drag on the budget, BUT its actually a niche concern of a select few self funded wealthy non labor voting retirees. If the change was announced and then implemented in the first budget of government then all the anger and fear in the more general community would have blown over by the following election.

    Richo was right: labor should have stuck to one big change: negative gearing – which was grandfathered.

    This time around, we cant afford to be fighting the scare campaign of ten last 6 weeks.

    I’m not suggesting an incepid small target oppposition: just one that is focused like a laser on very select and targeted hip pocket nerve policies: and tie together attacks on the government with alternative policies on the same issues.

  17. “They are fuckin insane.”

    So? They have a shit load of seats. Without them, the progressives ain’t going to get government.

  18. Chalmers looks good, sounds good and has a brain. Bowen would come on and completely fuck up explaining the franking policy, only for Chalmers to follow and put it right. Frankly I’m gobsmacked that this guy was not treasury spokesman.

  19. Blobbit
    Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 1:32 am
    “They are fuckin insane.”
    So? They have a shit load of seats. Without them, the progressives aunt going to get government.
    I meant that bringing dental into medicare wouldn’t matter there clearly. They don’t care about their teeth.

  20. The thing that could lose them an election is they get too cocky like Howard did after 2004 and introduce something really nasty, and labor turn the next election into a defacto referendum on that issue and have little to say about anything else ie more or less what happened in 2007.

  21. My 2 cents worth. Labor should pass ALL Morrison’s tax cuts in full. And make one amendment. Bring the implementation forward to next financial year. Call Morrison’s bluff. If these tax cuts are so critical then they ALL need to be implemented ASAP.
    It will blow the mother of all holes in the budget bottom line but hey, the libs are the world’s greatest economic managers.

  22. AE

    Where I do agree with you is the next election must be run by Labor with a keep the spotlight on the government campaign.

    Abbott showed how that works.

  23. Lincoln
    Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 11:54 pm

    This is justice. The man who steadied the sword into the backs of Rudd and Gillard did not deserve to show that this pathway is one of success. He lies too much and badly and listens to too many people like those in this room that are responsible for lowering the bar of what is acceptable in politics


    I know that you are not and never will be a candidate for Prime Minister. But just give us an outline of your lifetime achievements so that we can judge whether you are a fit person to comment on the attributes of people who do sacrifice in order to serve their fellow citizens.

    I’ve known some sore winners in my time, but you take the cake as well as lowering the bar to the floor in social discourse.

  24. I never thought the cancer policy would shift any votes either. Who thought that gem up? In fact it was about the only Labor policy mentioned for the opening two weeks and then it sunk never to be mentioned again. Fair dinkum, this campaign was crap. Who was responsible? The only reason i never called this out, was that I thought the Tories were so bad, it wouldn’t matter.

  25. 2016/11/08 – Clinton 323 college votes; Trump 215; Clinton win 98% likely. https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/forecast/president
    2016/06/22 – Brexit: 51% remain, 49% leave.
    2019/05/17 – Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5.
    ‘highly implausible under-dispersion in the Australian opinion polls’ (https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2019/05/a-herd-of-new-polls.html )
    ‘The probability of 13 polls in a row at 48 or 49 per cent is 0.000059. This is actually slightly less likely than throwing 14 heads in a row.’
    ‘A systemic problem with the polls, depending on what it is, may point to a heightened possibility of an unexpected election result (in either direction).’ (https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2019/05/why-i-am-troubled-by-polls.html )
    “for forecasting purposes the pollsters’ published margins of error should at least be doubled” (https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2015/01/polling-accuracy.html )

  26. Negative gearing changes were also something that could have been announced on budget night after winning an election. They were grandfathering existing investments so they wouldn’t have been creating any losers.

  27. Lincoln
    Just remember you are responsible for the death of thousands when AGW peaks. Now go away and try to wash the blood off your hands

  28. Labor could emulate the Left and Democrats in the USA and basically go insane and self destruct, rather than learn.
    This could be possible, depend on who leads them.
    Will be difficult as Morison now has pretty much a clean slate having ‘saved’ the Libs, he now has authority to do what he wants….expect more conservative ideas to appear.
    This will trigger the left no end, and the tantrums that follow will scare the voting public.
    For what Not to do after an unexpected defeat Labor should look at the Left and Dems in the USA

  29. Yep all non cosmetic dentistry as part of medicare, that is the kind of real world stuff that people in the suburbs and regions can relate too.

    Medicare helped Hawke and Keating win four elections and gave them the scope to chuck a few treats to the middle class left.Andrew is right we need to return to “Laborism” in opposition.

  30. KK was very clearly blaming a complete information acquisition failure for the mishandling of Labor’s responses.

    Clearly Labor’s methods of working out what was going on were simply completely wrong. What they can do to correct this who knows. But whatever they’ve been doing … bin it all. Focus groups or internal polling or whatever … it was clearly so wrong as to be laughable if the consequences weren’t so serious. One suspects that more of a focus on basic HUMINT- as with so many information gathering exercises – really needs to be a large part of the answer.

  31. Agree Salk: worse – have a 100% membership ballot for leader and have someone like Corbyn lead us into obscurantism.

  32. This absolute nonsense about Global Warming bringing destruction because Australia didn’t do something is utter silliness. What Australia dose domestically has an extremely small effect.
    If you REALLY wanted to do something you would be having a policy that harassed the crap out of the major global polluters who do nothing, whilst saying they do something.
    Bizarre – some want Australia to self destruct to feel virtuous, but you don’t have the right to commit every Australian to that act – and as it turned out, Australians reject that notion.

  33. There is no fat left in the reserve’s ability to cut interest rates. I really wonder what rabbit an very unimaginative Morrison will pull from out of his hat when the recession hits.

  34. Palmer siphoned enough protest vote away from the ALP in Queensland, WA and Tasmanian seats, and directed them back to the Coalition, that the ALP did not win. It seems the ALP should have targeted Palmer`s UAP directly, instead of attacking the Coalition for preferencing him (which probably only helped the UAP to direct the preferences to the Coalition by highlighting to many UAP voters that is when their party wanted their preferences to go).

    Counter-attacking far more effectively against the Coalition`s scare campaigns would have helped as well. Increased first home owners grants and anti-negative gearing ads (negative gearing is giving investors a tax break to help them out bid you/your children/your grandchildren) would probably have put them on the front foot on that regard. They certainly needed to counter advertise on pensions against Palmer`s $150 pension raise and the Coalition`s “pensioner tax” campaign that almost certainly combined did the most damage.

  35. The cancer policy was indeed weirdly specific. And the intended voter demographic was, what? People currently suffering from cancer, and their families?

    And it sure didn’t lend itself to much in the way of campaign sloganeering. Surely Labor would have had a better hit from something that everyone could get an immediate benefit from, like adding dental to medicare.

    Same with the pay rise for childcare workers. Immediately lent itself to all sorts of envy, like, why childcare but not aged care? That’s a recipe for driving people to the other team out of spite. If anything that’s a policy that cost the ALP votes.

    How about just giving all low wage workers a larger tax cut instead?

  36. “This will trigger the left no end, and the tantrums that follow will scare the voting public.”

    Yes, that is possible.

    The whole Adani thing surprised me a bit. I’m in WA (new slogan, only the second most backwards state), so didn’t really have a feel for it.

    It’s looks like the Greens pushed that hard, on the basis the ALP would win, so this would get them some votes in the southern states. If the Greens had known it was going to cost them any chance of influencing government policy, would they have pushed it so much?

    So now will get Adani, cause the Libs will find it if the company doesn’t, plus all the other crap they were going to do.

  37. PuffTMD:

    I wonder if suddenly, plugging the Franking Credit loophole may be attractive to a Morrison govt in need of money.

    They weren’t expecting to have to do anything about it, but they know it has to be fixed (they were just expecting an ALP government to wear the political cost). They can try to fix it two ways:

    a – have the ATO talk to tax accountants (etc.) and tell them not to use it (it was hardly used prior to 2013 since everyone assumed that it would be closed the moment it became a problem. Then a totally incompetent government was elected in 2013 and apparently didn’t care, leading to a free for all). This may not succeed, given the prominence it has now achieved (the cat is out of the bag, so to speak), or

    b – eliminate dividend imputation completely (actually the right thing to do – its time has past). This is will really really upset key donors and branch members.

    They are probably hoist on their own petard.

  38. Labor’s ad campaign was woeful based on my exposure.
    After Morrison and that grub consumated that vile preference agreement where was the ad showing the grub owing his workers millions of dollars in entitlements and smirky mcsmirkface cosying up and the fact that taxpayers had bailed the slime ball out to the tune of $70 million on high rotation? To me it looked like labor were the ones who were broke.

  39. “People will likely vote for labor in droves when the likely recession hits.”

    This. Be prepared. Winter is coming. Slay the Night King. Then “Dracarys” on all the greedy fuckers out there. One by one (like Bismarck exterminated all the petite and vessel German states one after the other by isolating Denmark, Austria and France in turns).

    Royal Commissions up the wazoo on all the shenanigans of the past 6 years (and counting now, alas). Federal ICAC.

    Win. Govern for the little people. Settle accounts. In that order.


  40. Both the ALP and the Greens ran hard on climate change because polling told us that 60 per cent of Victorians and 57 per cent of Queenslanders believe Australia is facing a climate change emergency… oh, right.

  41. SALK – Wait for him introduce some bill around religous freedom. to the general public it will appear pretty benign, they won’t give a toss about it, but the terrace house left will have kittens over it.

    Morrisson will try and lure Labor into a culture war, to take the focus of all the chunks he is going to bite out of what is left of the Hawke Keating “social wage”

  42. Salk
    Go crawl away to your shameful little fortress where your Big Daddy figure can chase away all the monsters under the bed and make the Tooth Fairy double your tooth money.

    There is no reason for you to break the habits of a lifetime by actually caring about people.

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