I’m afraid in depth analysis of the result will have to wait until I’ve slept for just about the first time in 48 hours. I’ll just observe that that BludgerTrack thing on the sidebar isn’t looking too flash right now, to which the best defence I can offer is that aggregators gonna aggregate. Basically every poll at the end of the campaign showed Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5, and so therefore did BludgerTrack – whereas it looks like the final result will end up being more like the other way around. The much maligned seat polling actually wound up looking better than the national ones, though it was all too tempting at the time to relate their pecularities to a past record of leaning in favour of the Coalition. However, even the seat polls likely overstated Labor’s position, though the number crunching required to measure how much by will have to wait for later.
Probably the sharpest piece of polling analysis to emerge before the event was provided by Mark the Ballot, who offered a prescient look at the all too obvious fact that the polling industry was guilty of herding – and, in this case, it was herding to the wrong place. In this the result carries echoes of the 2015 election in Britain, when polling spoke in one voice of an even money bet between the Conservatives and Labour, when the latter’s vote share on the day proved to be fully 6% higher. This resulted in a period of soul-searching in the British polling industry that will hopefully be reflected in Australia, where pollsters are far too secretive about their methods and provide none of the breakdowns and weighting information that are standard for the more respected pollsters internationally. More on that at a later time.
Of course, the people who actually will bear the pain in Puffy’s “Let the country suffer so they can learn!” scenario will be the poor and disadvantaged voters who didn’t vote for the Coalition.
The ones who you think you’re educating will be padded by support from the government. The Libs aren’t stupid, they know where to pour the gravy.
Did Hawke ever do much good in QLD?
Just Quietly @ #1727 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 11:23 pm
And why shouldn’t the blame be sheeted home to those responsible? There are consequences to voting a particular way, or refusing to vote a particular way.
We do not have another three years. This was a vote to let this country bake to a cinder. There will be fires in which people and animals die. There will be increased extreme weather events. We will reach a carbon tipping point for global warming. The latest figure I heard was it is only 12 years away. Whatever it is, it is not a hundred, where three years is just 3% of the time we have left to act. Very soon we will have signed our own death warrants.
That is why I say, non-Labor voters have blood on their hands and it will never wash off. That is why I say Australians in the majority are fucken aresoles. Greedy, selfish, racist, wilfully ignorant, pathetic, small-minded cowards who rely on athletes winning gold medals to feel good about themselves.
I won’t pander to their egos. They wanted this, let them wear the opprobrium. Liberal/National/Nutter voters should have to wear a T-shirt with their voting card printed on it, so the rest of us can know who the bastards are.
Suave @ #1697 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 11:15 pm
I’m sorry but it is about the policy platform.
The L in ALP is about the labour movement.
That’s working people who need jobs to put food on the table and keep a roof over their families heads.
If the ALP want to pursue environmental ideals they need to do it in government.
They need to earn power and political goodwill from the people who elect them, like Hawke did.
If they want to chase green preferences and social media kudos from the urban under 34 twittergram demographic then they better get used to proselytising from opposition.
Shorten was poison in QLD. When Palaszczuk said she supported Adani and Shorten said he didn’t that didn’t rankle well with QLDers. They got behind Palaszczuk (despite vetoing the rail line loan) and kicked Shorten to the kerb. Shorten just looked out of touch with QLD and rural Australia. He looked out of touch with the working man. That’s not what people want from an ALP leader, let alone a Labor PM.
This burn-the-voters-to-the-ground garbage is really pretty embarrassing and unedifying, it’s not at all an approach that will convince anyone of anything. Not helpful.
Looks like Hawke did pretty well. But perhaps not at the 2pp level. Certainly won enough seats in 87 and 90. ok in 83 and poor in 84.
Labor sitting over in its ideological corner telling the people…Don’t tell us what you want, we are telling you what you should want, and by the way….Vote for us!!
Meanwhile, Libs moving over to the people saying please vote for us.
Labor saying…you have to sacrifice this, that.
Libs saying..we will sacrifice this, that..
kinda the way it looked.
Blobbit: “I’m still waiting, btw, for anyone to give me an example of an opposition winning government in Australia on the back of a wife ranging reform program.”
Truth to tell, what Labor took into this election wasn’t a reform program: it was a grab bag of poorly-researched and badly thought through tax changes which they struggled to explain on multiple occasions. And they never even produced a clear message as to what they were going to do with the additional revenue they wanted to raise.
i think an Opposition with a really well-structured tax reform program that could be clearly demonstrated as being fair and equitable might have a chance of selling it. But, even then, it would be a high risk strategy so why do it.
“Greedy, selfish, racist, wilfully ignorant, pathetic, small-minded cowards ”
You can stop now, Shorten has already stepped down.
bc @ #1741 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 11:33 pm
No, you did not. But are you going to confront people who did with their culpability or are you going to whitewash their perfidy?
If a person voted for the Coalition they probably don’t see themselves as aresoles. Aresoles never think there is anything wrong with themselves.
But the point remains, if they did not vote to put Labor in power in 2019, aresole is the kindest word for them.
Puffy, Victoria voted overwhelmingly for the ALP. Promise to spare us from the death plague you are threatening to unleash on the nation. thank you.
You cannot bring a mob of scrambling rats together. It is first to the food pile and devil take the hindmost. This is Australia, 2019.
Rational Leftist @ #1751 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 11:38 pm
That is a good point. So, when the next big one hits, let’s eat the rich.
I think we are seeing the development of Labor’s next strategy here…
“Double, double toil and trouble;
Fire burn and caldron bubble.
Fillet of a fenny snake,
In the caldron boil and bake;
Eye of newt and toe of frog,
Wool of bat and tongue of dog,
Adder’s fork and blind-worm’s sting,
Lizard’s leg and howlet’s wing,
For a charm of powerful trouble,
Like a hell-broth boil and bubble.
Double, double toil and trouble;
Fire burn and caldron bubble.
Cool it with a baboon’s blood,
Then the charm is firm and good.”
For the millionth time, Australia’s government isn’t decided the electoral college, it’s decided by voters in 151 different electorates. While it’s fine to look at the region that the marginals are in and how they behave, I think people are getting too hung-up about actually winning a state, rather than picking off marginals.
shiftaling: “This burn-the-voters-to-the-ground garbage is really pretty embarrassing and unedifying, it’s not at all an approach that will convince anyone of anything. Not helpful.”
And it’s based on an entirely false premise: ie, that the election was a kind of referendum on climate change. But Labor hardly went boots and all on the issue, and they sent quite a mixed message about Adani. And, because of what I consider to have been very poor strategy, they put themselves into the position of being forced to spend much of the campaign talking about taxation.
If Labor had made climate change the main focal point of their campaign, had told the Australian people that the election was a vote about the future of the world and the lives of their children and grandchildren, then it might possibly be fair to accuse the Australian people of having made a selfish choice. But this wasn’t Labor’s pitch to the electorate.
The politicians who did make this sort of pitch to the electorate – the Greens, Zali Steggall, Helen Haines – did far better than most pundits expected.
That’s got my vote!
lol salk
Lindsay and Robertson were low hanging fruit but both were lost long before the election due to right sub-factional fighting in the pre-selection. Blame the voters as much as you like but Labor, at least in NSW, needs to look at its own culture
Lucky creed – you are totally correct. The trend going forward is for labor to be destroyed by rwnj preferences.
The good news is they aren’t all rwnj voters. These people just want secure jobs and flag waving, but the key to them is much less immigration.
Make low immigration core labor policy and do it to boost wages and living conditions. Win elections.
Blobbit says:
Monday, May 20, 2019 at 12:07 am
“bringing Australians together”
What’s that mean in terms of actual policies?
Not sure about policies but to start with (before developing any policies) it would mean:
1. Not abusing them because they see the world differently;
2. Not demeaning them because they work in the mining industry and voted for what they thought was in there interest (i.e. their job);
3. Not labelling and categorising them as the other (eg. from Qld/rednecks/country hicks).
I hate to point it out but Salk is winning the argument on here.
I think it is time people were made uncomfortable about voting Lib or Nat. It is time they were confronted with the damage they do and suffering they cause. While it is questionable whether such voters are capable of shame, efforts must be made to make it unacceptable to be a right-wing voter. And that means confronting them with the effects of their vote, and showing disapproval.
PuffyTMD
says:
Monday, May 20, 2019 at 12:28 am
I think it is time people were made uncomfortable about voting Lib or Nat. It is time they were confronted with the damage they do and suffering they cause. While it is questionable whether such voters are capable of shame, efforts must be made to make it unacceptable to be a right-wing voter. And that means confronting them with the effects of their vote, and showing disapproval.
________________________
Yeah Nah. We all have family members who vote differently. Let’s keep the hatred online. lol
And why should right-wing voters not be called out? As long as we blame Labor, or the Greens (as much as I could choke on saying it) or other factors, the scoundrels who voted in the Coalition are to blame. The information was there, it is there at a couple of keystrokes. If they did not know what a policy was, they could get off their lazy bums and call the local office of the various parties. Worried that there will be a death tax? Ring the ALP candidate or the ALP head office and fucken ask about it. Want to know the Liberal policy on Climate Change, ask them. Then cross check the information. If someone feeds you a load of bollocks at a bbq, take your smart phone out and look it up.
Australians seem to be able to handle Netflix, online streaming, youtube DIY videos, downloading porn, online gambling and facebook. Are you telling me they cannot check out the stuff they are told or think they know?
Fuck ’em. They are traitors in love with the almighty dollar. Why should they be molly coddled?
I say, let them eat cake.
nath @ #1773 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 12:01 am
So you are happy to have family members who are responsible for the deaths of vulnerable people? And you are not even going to politely tell them what they have done? OK then.
Also, if any of our American siblings are watching: Let this also be a warning to you. While it’s a completely different kettle of fish, the lesson about just assuming you’re going to romp it in without trying should be in the back of your minds, lest you think Trump will be a pushover.
Rational Leftist @ #1776 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 12:12 am
Trump is going to get a second term. You might get a bet on it somewhere.
You cannot lose by under=estimating the perfidy of the voting public.
Should be a Big Warning to the Dems for 2020
Running with the Green New Deal will be their Great New Destruction.
PuffyTMD
says:
Monday, May 20, 2019 at 12:41 am
nath @ #1773 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 12:01 am
PuffyTMD
says:
So you are happy to have family members who are responsible for the deaths of vulnerable people? And you are not even going to politely tell them what they have done? OK then.
____________________________________
My family is pretty solid ALP/Green. Mostly ALP. But I have a brother who is secretly a Liberal voter. He acts as if he is disinterested in politics around the rest of the family, just to avoid any shit he might cop. But I know he votes Liberal because he told me and swore me to secrecy years ago. So there is already a certain amount of what you are suggesting. I told him to just say what he thinks and bad luck. He’s got a right to his opinions and his vote, I love my brother and won’t be treating him any differently just because he’s secretly a RWNJ.
He will if the Democratic nominee campaigns with the same level of tone-deafness, lacklustre and assumed inevitability as Labor did.
Wait, that was John Kerry in 2004, wasn’t it?
The Dutch winner of Eurovision is named “Duncan”, lol
Generic Person says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 3:59 pm
@Rational Leftist
Broken is prosecuting the same failed arguments over and over again and expecting a different result. Australians have rejected avowedly socialist, high taxing class wars. Welcome to reality.
———————-
Let’s me see if I’ve got this straight. I hope you’ll correct me if I am wrong because I didn’t go to the Howard-Costello school of tax avoidance.
You own several negatively geared loss-making properties which reduce your tax liability on your other income to zero. You also have a share portfolio of $1 million which entitles you to a tax refund of tens of thousands of dollars.
Nice work if you can get it!
By the way, how many negatively geared properties do you own? And what was the size of your dividend imputation tax refund last year? And how much did you pay your tax accountant (tax deductible).
Joe – I think it’s a bit more complex than just immigration, and I wouldn’t like us to go down that path and I am not convinced we would be net winners from it.
NSW Labor flirted with that kind of thing at their recent state election and it didn’t go too well for them.
I think there is a demographic in Australia that as you say is not instinctively right wing but senses that no one really represents them anymore and that the modern left is at best preoccupied with other things, things that mostly don’t concern them, and at worst completely despises them.
But they are not so naive as to think the tories have their best interests at heart, they have to vote or they get fined so where do they go?
Off to someone who is a faux outsider and sells themselves and outsider, not suprising for a demographic that sees itself as being outsiders.
Salk “Libs saying..we will sacrifice this, that..
kinda the way it looked.”
Nope. Libs said no one had to sacrifice anything. Ponies for everyone, as long as they have a go. And who doesn’t have a go?
Mehar ”
i think an Opposition with a really well-structured tax reform program that could be clearly demonstrated as being fair and equitable might have a chance of selling it. But, even then, it would be a high risk strategy so why do it.”
Nope. Only an opposition with a tax package that gives everyone a handout. Sorry, bonus. Next election, maybe the ALP should have a policy of $5k for everyone with a job, to recognise how tough they’re doing it.
No more stupid than the baby bonus.
So, no one can think of a federal opposition that won government with an actual reform program, apart from Whitlam?
C@tmomma:
I respectfully disagree with the ABC piece Zoidlord cited. Because Labor had a counter-argument they could have used to pursue opposition to the project: What about the jobs Adani will cost?
Labor didn’t push this point, which to me is a shame because IMO it’s a winner. The theme is there, it’s broadly accurate to reality, and it will hit home: Adani’s Carmichael project is not a net job creator, it will never be a net job creator, and all the hoo-haw about “how many jobs it will create” is so much bum-fluff. Why is this?
Simple.
The Carmichael project is an assault on the Great Barrier Reef, upon which 90,000 tourism jobs depend. It is this is three ways: First, because Adani has already proven that they can’t be trusted with managing coal shipping and the impacts it has on the Reef (cf: Abbot Point when Cyclone Debbie hit) – and now they want more open license to run amok. Second, because in order to ship the coal out, more coral will have to be blasted from the Reef to create an even wider, deeper channel through the Reef for even larger ships to get through. And third, because climate change is literally killing the Great Barrier Reef – and more coal being burned will directly add to climate change.
If “jobs” is the point, then hammering home the thousands and thousands of jobs that the Carmichael project would endanger/destroy would have reversed the situation – suddenly, Queenslanders would have been aware that it’s not all opportunity, it’s costs as well. But this would have required Labor to have taken a definitive position opposing the Carmichael project on grounds of the national economic impact, if nothing else. Instead, Labor tried to have two bob each way – opposing Adani from the safety of Victoria, but equivocating/supporting it in Queensland.
This didn’t work, and it’s not going to work in the 21st century. Why not? Because your opponents will be all too glad to point out how you’re trying to sit on both sides of the fence at once, which is a major cynicism trigger for modern voters – and there’s nothing better than cynicism to get the voter thinking “Screw ’em all – what’s in it for me?” as they head into the voting booth. And at that point, Labor loses.
Had Labor declared that it was for the Carmichael project, it could have run ads stating that there’s no daylight between ALP & Coalition on the issue – and worn the (relatively minor) hit in Victoria, most of which would have gone to the Greens and come back as preferences. Low-risk, low-return strategy.
Had Labor declared that it was against the Carmichael project, it could have run ads defending/explaining its position, in terms that voters could understand – and potentially agree with. This would win points outside Queensland for having the gumption to actually pick a side, while the hit in Queensland could be mitigated by Queenslanders seeing that the Carmichael project isn’t everything the Coalition is saying it is. High-risk, high-return strategy.
Instead, Shorten – Labor as a whole, really – was being too cute by half, trying to oppose it where it was hated and waffle/support it where it was liked. This meant that not only could they be hammered from both Right and Left for their equivocation, but that Labor was essentially powerless to fire back and build support for its position. Essentially, Labor opted for a high-risk, low-return strategy, and it backfired – horribly.
Net result? Queenslanders believed that Labor was against Carmichael and that Carmichael was a good idea, and voted LNP – because it made sense to. And non-Queenslanders saw that Labor was trying to have it both ways and lost respect for the Party. Accordingly, I’d have to say that the Greens (smelly as they are!) didn’t lose Queensland; Labor’s mishandling of the Adani issue lost Queensland, and possibly the election too.
Lesson to be learned by Labor’s next leadership team: When a hot-button issue comes up, pick a side and engage in persuasion to get the electorate on your side. Don’t try to have it both ways – you’ll just antagonize everyone!
“I think there is a demographic in Australia that as you say is not instinctively right wing but senses that no one really represents them anymore and that the modern left is at best preoccupied with other things, things that mostly don’t concern them, and at worst completely despises them.”
They want stable jobs first, which is understandable. Second they want free money, but they’ll love without it.
Worrying about climate change is only possible when you don’t have to worry about putting food on the table, or paying for the Hilux.
Every second word from the ALP should be jobs from now on.
“Matt”
I kinda agree with that. Not sure though that the costing 90k jobs will work. There simply hasn’t been enough visible evidence of our happening yet.
By that I don’t mean it hasn’t happened and can’t be seen. Just that all that had not yet lead to job losses. That argument isn’t going to work until some of those 90k start losing the jobs.
Unlike mines closing, which people have seen the cost of.
I reckon in retrospect they should have gone the me-too line and worn the cost.
Incumbent American Presidents usually get relected Bush snr only lost because of Perot, which really only leaves Carter in the oncer territory , so if you go on historical precedent Trump will win, I certainly wouldn’t bet against him.
US elections are racial headcounts,(once you fully embrace identity politics that is what you get ) Clinton lost because minority voters just didn’t turn out in the same numbers for her as they did for Obama that is why she lost states Obama won twice.
The democrats only hope would be another Obama,someone who can get the minority vote out in big numbers without scaring away too many whites.
nath @ #1779 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 12:17 am
OK, I can understand. I have a couple like that too. I am currently undermining the arguments of one of them. The latest was that our Reserve Bank was owned by a foreign bankers from an evil cabal intent on ruling the world. A quick Wiki look up brought up the truth of the matter and when he would not agree it was right, I pointed out that he was actively filtering out truth.
I said it was like he had a pallet of paints, and he was painting in just the colours he liked to make a picture he liked, if someone put a different colour on it, he was wiping it away until he felt comfortable again.
We will see if he raises that meme again.
I am sympathetic to both Labor and Greens. I can’t agree with either enough to join them. You’ve both done stupid things and sabotaged each other.
The left needs to take a Machiavellian (realist) approach: If you want to do good, you need to learn how to be a bastard so that, when necessary, you can beat the true bastards at their own game. Clean hands don’t win elections. Sad but true. The libs have done do so well historically partly because the rich and the media empires they own back them, and partly because they are prepared to use every dirty fucking trick in the book to win. We can’t outfight them, but we can outsmart them.
Further, the left needs to form a united front. I really think the ALP should work on forming a coalition with the Greens. Compromise on policy and don’t waste precious resources running in the same seats. Give the Greens the inner cities and leafy suburbs where their brand is most popular. Labor can focus on the poorer and more conservative seats. That means at least some progressive/small l liberal ALP sitting members are going to have to shift over to the Greens or quit public politics and go behind the scenes. The short term sacrifice will, I think, reap long term reward. The Greens may also have to rebrand a bit to overcome past stigma and their more conservative members should go to the ALP.
At the very very least, a harder preference deal should be made, and the campaigns should cooperate. Maybe that’s asking for too much, but it’s nice to dream.
New thread.
Politically, putting too high an emphasise on climate change is not going to win too many medium and short term battles.
The impacts of global action aren’t going to be seen for decades and will show up in the data long before people start noticing anything themselves.
Yes, it’s a super important issue that must be dealt with, but whatever we do it’s not going to start getting colder.
The carbon price helped to reduce emissions, but it kept getting hotter. This is completely as you’d expect.
As a result you can implement the required policy and point out what’s being achieved, but that will be meaningless to most people because what they will see happening outside will be hotter temperatures.
Basically what I’m saying is, you’ll need other policies to use as your success indicators because climate change policy won’t be it.
Labour have only governed for 38 of 118 years apparently
but in that time the progressive achievements are mind blowing compared to say the usa where the center left has probably governed at least half the time
its terribly depressing if you are a labour politician getting so little credit for doing so much but things aren’t terribly bleak for a labour activist
every labour period has led to multiple reforms that are here to stay and now the disability program is here to stay.
So I say Labour should push to be ambitious in policy. They will win occasionally but their wins, though occasional, will change the country permanently for the better
Looks like a UK 1992 election (unpopular leader replaced = Thatcher); Polls pointing to a Labour win and then blindsided when the Basildon result was called, combined with the 2015 UK polling meltdown.
The UK Tories post 92 were intellectually bankrupt and about to sink themselves on a rock which they have been stuck on since, Europe. So as history records Blair hammered them in 97.
Have the Labor party a suitably charismatic potential leader?
Does the LNP have a potentially festering sore ?
Libs still short of majority.
75 to them.
OK.
Question – what will be the Qld Labor Governments take on the Adani issue now? Will they finally roll over and let it begin? Will they think- we won’t win those CQ seats anyway even if we do let Adani start ? Are the seats in the SE corner (the ones to win if you want to be in Government)the ones to hold onto so the hell with CQ and FNQ, numerically speaking? Will they consider the State Election as being separate from a Federal one thinking and persist with obstructing Adani ( using the Science, the GBR and the economic weakness of coal against it?)
Looking forward to hearing what PBrs think.
PuffTMD,
On behalf of rats, I must object to this aspersion on their character. Rats are highly moral creatures who will aid those whom they don’t know but are in need, and will even share their favourite food after the act of liberation.
http://www.livescience.com/17378-rats-show-empathy.html
Humans could learn from them.