Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

Newspoll ends the campaign with a big sample poll that offers no surprises, with Labor maintaining its modest but decisive edge.

The Australian brings us the final Newspoll of the campaign, and it lands bang on the uniform pollster consensus in recording Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5. Last week’s Newspoll had it at 51-49, but that result involved rounding to whole numbers. On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%.

The poll has a bumper sample of 3008 – it’s not clear when the field work period began, but “2108 interviews were conducted in the 24 hours up until midday yesterday”. Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 46% and down one on disapproval to 45%; Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly, from 45-38 to 47-38.

That should be the final poll for the campaign, and hence the final addition to BludgerTrack, which has been just about carved in stone for the past week. However, the addition of the Newspoll result does cause Labor to make one gain on the seat projection, that being in Victoria, although it has only made a 0.1% difference on the national two-party preferred.

UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have state breakdowns compiled from the last two Ipsos polls, though only two-party preferred numbers are provided so I can’t make use of them in BludgerTrack. I’m not too troubled by this though, as they rather improbably have Labor more strongly placed in New South Wales, where they lead 53-47, than in Victoria, where their lead is 52-48. Elsewhere, it’s 50-50 in Queensland and with the Coalition leading 51-49 in both Western Australia (more-or-less plausibly) and South Australia (less so).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,284 comments on “Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

  1. 10pm for AG to call it as we wait for the west.
    And
    86 to labor. (hopefully more)

    But what I really want is for Clive to have wasted a ton of money and get nothing.
    That would really put a bow on tonight.

  2. ARGH! Chris Pyne just turned up in my twitter feed, DRINK!

    * Not personally, you understand, someone tweeted the station promo. Still.

  3. The Premier State was always going to come through – my hopeful tips

    Robertson, Reid, Gilmore and Banks to ALP; with Indies in Warringah, Cowper and maybe Farrer. Wentworth back to the Libs, ALP holds Lindsay and everything else. Maybe Page to the Greens.

  4. Fly number 3

    TPP on the night
    Assuming to be given by A.Green no later than 10pm, tonight. Once again, the timestamp will be used as a tie-breaker if needed.

    Median: ALP 52.4 to 47.6 LNP
    Mode: ALP 52.0 to 48.0 LNP
    Mean: ALP 52.4 to 47.6 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 46

    ALP / LNP
    52.0 / 48.0 alpine blizzard, May-15 12:30
    52.5 / 47.5 Andrew_Earlwood, May-11 15:00
    53.4 / 46.6 andrewmck, May-18 15:42
    53.0 / 47.0 Arky, May-11 15:11
    55.0 / 45.0 ausdavo, May-09 16:16
    52.4 / 47.6 boatswain1025, May-18 15:38
    51.0 / 49.0 BTRProducer, May-18 15:39
    52.7 / 47.3 Burgey, May-08 17:42
    52.4 / 47.6 Captain Moonlight, May-14 10:28
    52.0 / 48.0 chaisa, May-12 00:00
    53.2 / 46.8 chinda63, May-09 17:11
    51.0 / 49.0 Confessions, May-18 15:28
    52.5 / 47.5 Conor, May-17 16:56
    50.4 / 49.6 Damo, May-17 17:23
    51.4 / 48.6 Davidwh, May-11 17:40
    53.0 / 47.0 Deakin 3rd place 2001, May-17 21:49
    51.8 / 48.2 Douglas and Milko, May-09 21:56
    53.1 / 46.9 DRDR, May-17 17:06
    51.9 / 48.1 Expat, May-18 15:32
    52.4 / 47.6 Illawarra Observer, May-17 22:57
    51.3 / 48.7 jenauthor , May-17 17:09
    52.0 / 48.0 Jimbocool, May-09 17:23
    51.9 / 48.1 JJ, May-18 15:33
    53.2 / 46.8 Just Quietly, May-12 14:39
    53.5 / 46.5 Lachlan, May-09 17:05
    52.4 / 47.6 Late Riser, May-09 23:26
    52.0 / .0 LionsQ, May-18 15:54
    50.8 / 49.2 ltep, May-13 10:41
    52.5 / 47.5 Marcos De Feilittt, May-09 15:48
    53.1 / 46.9 Matt, May-09 17:05
    53.0 / 47.0 NE Qld, May-18 15:34
    53.0 / 47.0 OH, May-17 17:21
    52.7 / 47.3 Outsider, May-09 17:21
    51.9 / 48.1 ozpmn, May-18 16:27
    52.3 / 47.7 poroti, May-18 15:29
    52.0 / 48.0 Red13 , May-18 09:23
    52.7 / 47.3 Roger, May-17 23:10
    53.9 / 46.1 Scott, May-09 18:16
    51.0 / 49.0 Socrates , May-18 15:54
    52.4 / 47.7 sonar, May-18 16:11
    52.9 / 47.1 Terminator, May-18 16:13
    50.0 / 50.0 Tetsujin, May-18 16:19
    52.8 / 47.2 The real Dave, May-18 15:55
    53.1 / 46.9 Tom, May-09 16:05
    52.4 / 47.6 Work To Rule, May-12 18:17
    52.8 / 47.2 Zoidlord, May-18 15:35

  5. Jaeger the cork comes out when Mr Green calls it.

    I think this is one of the reusable plastic stoppers, but that seems fair enough. πŸ™‚

  6. Late Riser @ #1245 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 5:41 pm

    Fly number 3

    TPP on the night
    Assuming to be given by A.Green no later than 10pm, tonight. Once again, the timestamp will be used as a tie-breaker if needed.

    Median: ALP 52.4 to 47.6 LNP
    Mode: ALP 52.0 to 48.0 LNP
    Mean: ALP 52.4 to 47.6 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 46

    ALP / LNP
    52.0 / 48.0 alpine blizzard, May-15 12:30
    52.5 / 47.5 Andrew_Earlwood, May-11 15:00
    53.4 / 46.6 andrewmck, May-18 15:42
    53.0 / 47.0 Arky, May-11 15:11
    55.0 / 45.0 ausdavo, May-09 16:16
    52.4 / 47.6 boatswain1025, May-18 15:38
    51.0 / 49.0 BTRProducer, May-18 15:39
    52.7 / 47.3 Burgey, May-08 17:42
    52.4 / 47.6 Captain Moonlight, May-14 10:28
    52.0 / 48.0 chaisa, May-12 00:00
    53.2 / 46.8 chinda63, May-09 17:11
    51.0 / 49.0 Confessions, May-18 15:28
    52.5 / 47.5 Conor, May-17 16:56
    50.4 / 49.6 Damo, May-17 17:23
    51.4 / 48.6 Davidwh, May-11 17:40
    53.0 / 47.0 Deakin 3rd place 2001, May-17 21:49
    51.8 / 48.2 Douglas and Milko, May-09 21:56
    53.1 / 46.9 DRDR, May-17 17:06
    51.9 / 48.1 Expat, May-18 15:32
    52.4 / 47.6 Illawarra Observer, May-17 22:57
    51.3 / 48.7 jenauthor , May-17 17:09
    52.0 / 48.0 Jimbocool, May-09 17:23
    51.9 / 48.1 JJ, May-18 15:33
    53.2 / 46.8 Just Quietly, May-12 14:39
    53.5 / 46.5 Lachlan, May-09 17:05
    52.4 / 47.6 Late Riser, May-09 23:26
    52.0 / .0 LionsQ, May-18 15:54
    50.8 / 49.2 ltep, May-13 10:41
    52.5 / 47.5 Marcos De Feilittt, May-09 15:48
    53.1 / 46.9 Matt, May-09 17:05
    53.0 / 47.0 NE Qld, May-18 15:34
    53.0 / 47.0 OH, May-17 17:21
    52.7 / 47.3 Outsider, May-09 17:21
    51.9 / 48.1 ozpmn, May-18 16:27
    52.3 / 47.7 poroti, May-18 15:29
    52.0 / 48.0 Red13 , May-18 09:23
    52.7 / 47.3 Roger, May-17 23:10
    53.9 / 46.1 Scott, May-09 18:16
    51.0 / 49.0 Socrates , May-18 15:54
    52.4 / 47.7 sonar, May-18 16:11
    52.9 / 47.1 Terminator, May-18 16:13
    50.0 / 50.0 Tetsujin, May-18 16:19
    52.8 / 47.2 The real Dave, May-18 15:55
    53.1 / 46.9 Tom, May-09 16:05
    52.4 / 47.6 Work To Rule, May-12 18:17
    52.8 / 47.2 Zoidlord, May-18 15:35

    LR
    You missed me.
    For the record ALP 50.9

  7. Final fly, number 4. Apologies, but this is a long one.

    Final TPP
    To be provided by the AEC, whenever they get done.

    And again, the timestamp will be used as a tie-breaker if needed.

    Median: ALP 52.2 to 47.8 LNP
    Mode: ALP 52.0 to 48.0 LNP
    Mean: ALP 52.2 to 47.8 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 86

    ALP / LNP
    51.6 / 48.4 alpine blizzard, May-15 12:30
    53.5 / 46.5 Alpha Zero, May-17 22:12
    52.1 / 47.9 Andrew_Earlwood, May-17 23:10
    52.8 / 47.2 andrewmck, May-18 15:42
    53.6 / 46.4 Andy Murray, May-17 23:22
    55.0 / 45.0 antonbruckner11 , Mar-01 15:37
    53.1 / 46.9 Arky, May-17 23:48
    52.5 / 47.5 Asha Leu, May-18 16:02
    54.5 / 45.5 ausdavo, May-09 16:16
    53.0 / 47.0 booleanbach, Feb-21 12:37
    53.4 / 46.6 Boris, May-17 22:01
    52.0 / 48.0 BTRProducer, May-18 15:39
    52.2 / 47.8 Burgey, May-08 17:42
    50.6 / 49.4 Cameron C., May-13 13:55
    52.4 / 47.6 Captain Moonlight, May-14 10:28
    52.0 / 48.0 chaisa, May-12 00:00
    52.1 / 47.9 chinda63, May-09 17:11
    51.0 / 49.0 Confessions, May-18 15:28
    51.5 / 48.5 Conor, May-17 16:56
    50.4 / 49.6 Damo, May-17 17:23
    51.4 / 48.6 Davidwh, May-13 14:35
    53.0 / 47.0 Deakin 3rd place 2001, May-17 21:49
    51.5 / 48.5 Diogenes, May-17 21:46
    52.4 / 47.6 Douglas and Milko, May-09 21:56
    52.5 / 47.5 DRDR, May-17 17:06
    51.4 / 48.6 Expat, May-18 15:32
    52.6 / 47.4 Frednk, May-08 18:20
    54.0 / 46.0 Gecko , May-10 22:19
    52.0 / 48.0 Geetroit, May-12 16:57
    52.7 / 47.3 gough1, May-17 23:08
    52.5 / 47.5 Greensborough Growler, May-13 16:44
    53.0 / 47.0 guytaur, May-09 17:19
    51.8 / 48.2 Illawarra Observer, May-17 22:57
    52.0 / 48.0 imacca , May-09 17:16
    51.8 / 48.2 j341983, May-13 14:04
    52.7 / 47.3 Jack Aranda, May-18 07:01
    52.2 / 47.8 jenauthor , May-17 17:09
    51.4 / 48.6 Jimbocool, May-09 17:23
    51.4 / 48.6 JJ, May-18 15:33
    52.0 / 48.0 JM, May-17 22:52
    52.9 / 47.1 Just Quietly, May-12 14:39
    53.0 / 47.0 Lachlan, May-09 17:05
    51.5 / 48.5 Late Riser, Dec-08 17:45
    50.8 / 49.2 ltep, May-13 10:41
    52.0 / 48.0 Marcos De Feilittt, May-09 15:48
    52.7 / 47.3 martini henry, May-09 10:08
    52.6 / 47.4 Matt, May-09 17:05
    51.6 / 48.4 Mavis Davis, May-10 09:28
    52.5 / 47.5 Mavis Davis, Dec-08 17:24
    51.8 / 48.2 max, May-09 19:12
    52.0 / 48.0 Mexicanbeemer, May-17 22:26
    52.2 / 47.8 Millennial, May-18 16:09
    50.9 / 49.1 Mundo, May-18 15:46
    52.4 / 47.6 NE Qld, May-18 15:34
    49.2 / 50.8 Nostradamus, May-17 21:18
    53.0 / 47.0 OH, May-17 17:21
    52.2 / 47.8 Outsider, May-09 17:21
    51.5 / 48.5 ozpmn, May-18 16:27
    51.8 / 48.2 pithicus, May-18 09:17
    52.3 / 47.7 poroti, May-18 15:29
    52.2 / 47.8 Prolo, May-17 22:03
    51.0 / 49.0 Rex Douglas, Feb-19 18:02
    54.0 / 46.0 Roger, May-09 09:53
    52.3 / 47.7 Rossmore, May-17 20:53
    50.0 / 50.0 Salk, May-16 15:11
    53.2 / 46.8 Scott, May-18 15:50
    51.0 / 49.0 Scott (Scout), May-14 23:58
    52.3 / 47.7 slackboy72, May-18 15:49
    52.0 / 48.0 Socrates , Jan-00 00:00
    52.0 / 48.0 sonar, May-18 16:11
    52.7 / 47.3 Sohar , May-17 23:21
    53.0 / 47.0 sonar, May-09 16:33
    55.0 / 45.0 steve davis, Mar-01 15:34
    53.0 / 47.0 swamprat, May-18 16:27
    52.7 / 47.3 sustainable future, May-18 15:55
    51.4 / 48.6 Terminator, May-18 16:13
    49.5 / 50.5 Tetsujin, May-18 16:19
    52.2 / 47.8 The real Dave, May-18 15:55
    55.0 / 45.0 Tom, May-09 16:05
    52.0 / 48.0 Tristo, May-16 12:13
    52.0 / 48.0 Voice endeavor, May-18 09:49
    51.0 / 49.0 Wayne, Feb-20 00:03
    52.7 / 47.3 Whisper, May-09 16:00
    51.8 / 48.2 Work To Rule, May-12 18:17
    52.1 / 47.9 Yabba, May-17 23:08
    52.5 / 47.5 Zoidlord, May-17 17:01

  8. Truth in reporting legislation must be being drawn up as we speak.

    Divesting monopoly media ownership in any market must follow.

    Mandatory imprisonment for defacing election material after a poll is called, and for breaching the electoral act by importuning a message as being from the electoral office, would also be nice.

  9. Fulvio
    β€œTruth in reporting legislation must be being drawn up as we speak.”

    Canada has a good model for this.

    The Lions won too. Its looking like a good day πŸ™‚

    6pm, voting over, ScumMo hand the keys in please. Night all.

  10. Back from HTV in Kooyong. Josh Frydenberg made a late appearance and has a relaxed chat to volunteers of all persuasions. He seemed modestly confident about his own seat but “mixed” was the most upbeat description he could muster for the overall result.

  11. Just heard from my brother (seat of Cowan) that there was a punch-up at a polling station in Ballajura involving a One Nation volunteer. Not sure if the ON guy started it or was the victim.
    Stay tuned.

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