Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

Newspoll ends the campaign with a big sample poll that offers no surprises, with Labor maintaining its modest but decisive edge.

The Australian brings us the final Newspoll of the campaign, and it lands bang on the uniform pollster consensus in recording Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5. Last week’s Newspoll had it at 51-49, but that result involved rounding to whole numbers. On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%.

The poll has a bumper sample of 3008 – it’s not clear when the field work period began, but “2108 interviews were conducted in the 24 hours up until midday yesterday”. Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 46% and down one on disapproval to 45%; Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly, from 45-38 to 47-38.

That should be the final poll for the campaign, and hence the final addition to BludgerTrack, which has been just about carved in stone for the past week. However, the addition of the Newspoll result does cause Labor to make one gain on the seat projection, that being in Victoria, although it has only made a 0.1% difference on the national two-party preferred.

UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have state breakdowns compiled from the last two Ipsos polls, though only two-party preferred numbers are provided so I can’t make use of them in BludgerTrack. I’m not too troubled by this though, as they rather improbably have Labor more strongly placed in New South Wales, where they lead 53-47, than in Victoria, where their lead is 52-48. Elsewhere, it’s 50-50 in Queensland and with the Coalition leading 51-49 in both Western Australia (more-or-less plausibly) and South Australia (less so).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,283 comments on “Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 25 of 26
1 24 25 26
  1. SKY cross to ALP function room had them talking 5 gains in Vic.
    Cross to commentators at libs function had them not looking at a win, concerned about taking back Indi (reference to an Army of Orange), and there being a swing to Labor in Leichhardt, but maybe not enough to change it.
    Then Madman Murray starts talking… he thinks scomo has saved North Queensland, he says what might lose it for the Libs is a lack of representation at booths for Palmer and Poorline, and their voters might not be disciplined enough to send their preferences directly to LNP.

  2. Maybe we should take predictions on Morrison’s first line in his concession speech?

    I’ll go first, ” How good’s losing!’

  3. BTW, anyone starting to think Nine buying the Age/SMH want such a bad thing? They don’t seem to be that interested in pushing any particular line, like the other media players.

  4. ‘North Coast Trawler says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 5:22 pm

    Just did a stint for GetUp in Dickson. My anecdotal evidence is those under 45yrs are with the progressives and the over 60 with LNP. The 45-60 no idea. ‘

    Good pick up. The age breakdowns are that the youf are overwhelmingly pro Labor and that the Olds are pro-Liberal with the tweenies somewhere in between.

  5. Meher

    I think that in 3 hours time your estimate will be shown to be a gross understatement of Labor’s seat tally.

  6. YBob says:

    Borewar, fathead paying only $100 for a days work ?
    Isn’t that a classic case of wagetheft ?

    The workers are chuffed. They are $100 up on Clive’s previous workers 🙂

  7. Exit poll from Ch9

    The Coalition is edging Labor on primary votes, 39 to 38 per cent.
    In 2016, the Coalition led by a much wider 42.1-34.7 per cent.
    The Greens are holding steady at 10 per cent, and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are registering at three per cent.

    Ten per cent of voters are opting for another party or an independent, down from 13 per cent in 2016, the poll shows.
    Pauline Hanson’s One Nation are polling at just two per cent.
    The exit poll results are based on a survey of 3301 voters at 33 polling booths across the country.

  8. ‘Blobbit says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 5:24 pm

    BTW, anyone starting to think Nine buying the Age/SMH want such a bad thing? They don’t seem to be that interested in pushing any particular line, like the other media players.’

    The commercial challenge is to turn the Age/SMH into DT clones without losing their residual leadership. Can’t be done.

  9. Jaeger the cork comes out when Mr Green calls it.

    Only just went in the fridge. Touch and go as to whether it will have had enough time to chill.

  10. ‘poroti says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 5:25 pm

    YBob says:

    Borewar, fathead paying only $100 for a days work ?
    Isn’t that a classic case of wagetheft ?

    The workers are chuffed. They are $100 up on Clive’s previous workers ‘

    LOL. I hope the Sandgropers are not going to let Team Straya down tonight?

  11. This breakdown by ipsos would have been interesting if had caught it earlier.
    NOTE: gender breakdown of Greens vote, 16% of female voters…

  12. #Galaxy Exit Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (-3.0 since 2016) ALP 38 (+3.3) GRN 10 (-0.2) #

    Palmer 3
    PHoN 2
    Others 10

  13. Sprocket if that exit poll for the Greens holds that’s a good sign that Labor will have fewer nutty crossbenchers to horse trade with in the Senate.

  14. I am going to start posting *ALL THE GUESSES* in a few minutes. For now though my thought for the day.

    Daughter: Dad? What’s a love machine?
    Morrison: …errr. Go ask your mum.

  15. Blobbit says: Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 5:24 pm

    BTW, anyone starting to think Nine buying the Age/SMH want such a bad thing? They don’t seem to be that interested in pushing any particular line, like the other media players.


    Go to FOX and News Corp and SKY News – if you want to see political BIAS …..

  16. Both Labor & Greens have Ind Louise Stewart as 2nd pref in Curtin.

    Much more positive for both Labor & Greens to last time, at least on my booth.

    Fingers crossed for the final tally.

  17. Blobbit,
    Having the SMH’s recommendation for a Labor Government was a welcome change from the old FauxFax editorials.

    Tis a good panel on Channel 9 with 3 prominent women MP’s along with a woman co-host. The network’s guys, Uhlman and O’Connor could be worse I guess.

  18. “The commercial challenge is to turn the Age/SMH into DT clones without losing their residual leadership. Can’t be done.”

    Indeed. I guess the difference with 9 (and Ten now with CBS as owners) is that all they seem to care about mainly is the commercial side. If going RWNJ is going to cost them money, I’m not sure they’re so inclined to play that game.

    I think they appear to be less interested anyway overall in being political players, so might give their papers some more freedom.

    Don’t know if it’ll pan out that way, but you never know.

  19. First fly crawling up the wall…

    When will Labor or the Coalition be declared as winners?

    [tonight 19:30] pica
    [tonight 19:32] Conor
    [tonight 19:35] Scott
    [tonight 20:07] DRDR
    [tonight 20:07] The real Dave
    [tonight 20:13] vote1julia
    [tonight 20:15] Socrates
    [tonight 21:12] jenauthor
    [tonight 21:05] sonar
    [tonight 22:21] Expat
    [tonight 20:23] andrewmck
    [tonight 20:30] Asha Leu
    [at end of the week] ltep
    [a week from now] Tetsujin

  20. Well colour me surprised! A late swing to Labor in NSW seems to have suddenly kicked in, if that exit poll is anything to go by.

    I wasn’t expecting that. I hope it plays out.

  21. Boerwar

    Fingers crossed. I hope it does not come down to WA seats, too long to be on the edge of the seat ! With luck Scrott cuddling Clive will prove as ‘successful’ as the State peasants’ embracing of Poorlene.
    I have been on a diet since November but tonight I am declaring an 8 hour ceasefire in the war on weight. Teh wine is chilled the cheese is aged so come on the closing of the polls 🙂

  22. Ross Greenwood said the highest swings to Labor in their Exit Poll were in Victoria and NSW, but only 1.1 % in QLD.

  23. Psyclaw @ #1185 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 5:21 pm


    I’m really worried that when all the TV panels call it a landslide for Labor about 8.30, they will all be lying. I’m just not at all confident you can trust them, or trust the AEC.

    I hope all PBers will write me sympathetic replies and understand my worries. If they don’t I’ll just keep reposting about my nervousness, like an effective troll should.

    I will not be confident about a Labor win till Shorten goes to the GG to call the 2022 election.

    I know that at least you will be sympathetic with my situation.


    Sweet Jesus Psyclaw! Get a grip.
    Labor has got this!

  24. Fly number 2.


    This will be up to the AEC, though I may be persuaded to accept a projection by A.Green. Also, where a party wasn’t specified I put the number into the Independent category. The timestamp is when the guess was placed, to be used as the tiebreaker.

    76-80/xx/xx/xx/xx Al Pal, May-17 11:36
    92/xx/xx/xx/xx Alpha Zero, May-17 22:12
    82/xx/xx/xx/xx Andrew_Earlwood, May-17 23:10
    87/57/xx/xx/7 andrewmck, May-18 15:42
    94/xx/xx/xx/xx Andy Murray, May-17 23:22
    81/xx/xx/xx/xx Antony Green, May-14 12:12
    82/xx/xx/3/xx Arky, May-17 23:48
    85/xx/xx/xx/xx Asha Leu, May-18 16:02
    98/45/xx/xx/8 ausdavo, May-18 16:02
    91/xx/xx/xx/xx beguiledagain , May-14 10:05
    79/xx/xx/xx/xx Bluey, May-15 18:20
    85/xx/xx/xx/xx boatswain1025, May-18 15:38
    91+/xx/xx/xx/xx booleanbach, May-18 09:19
    87/xx/xx/xx/xx Boris, May-17 22:01
    83/xx/xx/xx/xx bryon, May-17 22:13
    81/63/xx/xx/7 BTRProducer, May-18 15:39
    87/xx/xx/xx/xx Burgey, May-17 21:47
    75/70/1/1/3 Cameron C., May-13 13:55
    84/59/xx/xx/8 Captain Moonlight, May-14 10:28
    80/65/xx/xx/6 Conor, May-17 16:56
    79-81/xx/xx/xx/xx Cud Chewer, May-17 12:34
    87/58/xx/xx/6 d-money, May-17 22:31
    xx/76/1/xx/xx Damo, May-17 17:23
    79/66/xx/xx/6 Darn, May-17 21:40
    81/xx/xx/xx/xx Dave from Wagga, May-18 16:03
    79/xx/xx/xx/xx Davidwh, May-13 14:35
    85/xx/xx/xx/xx Deakin 3rd place 2001, May-17 21:47
    83/xx/xx/xx/xx Diogenes, May-17 21:46
    89/xx/xx/xx/xx Douglas and Milko, May-09 21:56
    85/61/xx/xx/5 DRDR, May-17 17:06
    79/xx/xx/xx/xx Expat, May-18 15:32
    81/xx/xx/xx/xx Expat Follower, May-17 07:36
    102/xx/xx/xx/xx Fozzie Logic, May-17 22:04
    53/xx/xx/xx/xx Gecko , May-10 22:19
    78/67/xx/xx/6 Geetroit, May-12 16:57
    82+/xx/xx/xx/xx Goll, May-18 04:35
    85/xx/xx/xx/xx gough1, May-17 23:08
    84/xx/xx/xx/xx Graham, May-17 09:32
    83/63/xx/xx/5 Greensborough Growler, May-13 16:44
    83/xx/xx/xx/xx Henry, May-17 22:40
    82/62/xx/xx/7 Hugoaugogo, May-15 13:46
    75/70/xx/1/5 ICanCU, May-17 21:37
    79/xx/xx/xx/xx Illawarra Observer, May-17 22:57
    83/xx/xx/xx/xx imacca , May-17 21:59
    66/80/1/1/3 Itsthevibe, May-18 13:24
    90+/xx/xx/xx/xx ItzaDream, May-17 13:58
    81/63/xx/xx/7 j341983, May-13 14:04
    85+/xx/xx/xx/xx Jack Aranda, May-18 07:01
    79/xx/xx/xx/xx JJ, May-18 15:33
    83/xx/xx/xx/xx JM, May-17 22:52
    91/50/xx/xx/10 Joanne Murphy, May-14 08:07
    84/61/xx/2/4 Jordan, May-18 00:49
    88/xx/xx/xx/xx Laocoon, May-18 00:02
    xx/62/xx/xx/xx Laura Tingle, May-13 19:44
    81/xx/xx/xx/xx lefty e, May-17 09:41
    81/xx/xx/xx/xx Leroy, May-13 23:05
    80/xx/xx/xx/xx LionsQ, May-18 15:54
    76/xx/xx/xx/xx ltep, May-17 09:55
    81/xx/xx/xx/xx Lynchpin , May-12 22:03
    90/51/xx/xx/10 martini henry, May-18 07:32
    76/70/xx/xx/xx Matt, May-12 13:59
    84/57/xx/xx/10 Mexicanbeemer, May-17 22:26
    79/66/xx/xx/6 mikehilliard, May-17 21:34
    82/xx/xx/xx/xx Millennial, May-18 16:09
    77/xx/xx/xx/xx moderate, May-13 15:43
    79/xx/xx/xx/xx Mundo, May-14 08:58
    86/xx/xx/xx/xx NE Qld, May-18 15:34
    72/71/xx/5/3 nath, May-17 23:57
    72/75/1/1/2 Nostradamus, May-10 08:44
    91/xx/xx/xx/xx OH, May-17 17:19
    86/59/xx/xx/xx Outsider, May-12 13:12
    80/65/xx/xx/6 ozpmn, May-18 16:27
    80/64/xx/xx/7 Paterson Observer, May-17 22:49
    83/xx/xx/xx/xx pica, May-17 21:32
    83/xx/xx/xx/xx pithicus, May-18 07:15
    82/xx/xx/xx/xx Prolo, May-17 22:03
    80/xx/xx/xx/xx Red13 , May-18 09:23
    85/xx/xx/xx/xx Rewi, May-16 18:04
    80/xx/xx/xx/xx Rex Douglas, May-17 12:29
    87/xx/xx/xx/xx Roger, May-17 23:10
    88/xx/xx/xx/xx Rossmore, May-17 21:35
    110/xx/xx/xx/xx Sceptic, May-17 11:41
    94/51/xx/xx/xx Scott, May-11 10:49
    82/xx/xx/xx/xx Sgi, May-18 16:59
    80/xx/xx/xx/xx SilentMajority, May-17 23:20
    78/xx/xx/xx/xx Simon² Katich®, May-17 21:38
    84/xx/xx/xx/xx slackboy72, May-18 15:49
    90/51/xx/xx/10 Smaug, May-13 08:10
    79/66/xx/xx/6 Socrates , May-18 15:54
    84/xx/xx/xx/xx sonar, May-18 16:11
    87/xx/xx/xx/xx Sohar , May-17 23:21
    82/xx/xx/xx/xx Steelydan , May-14 11:19
    91/xx/xx/xx/xx swamprat, May-18 16:27
    82/60-62/xx/1-2/5-7 sustainable future, May-18 15:36
    79/xx/xx/xx/xx Terminator, May-18 16:13
    /76/xx/xx/xx Tetsujin, May-18 16:19
    84/60/xx/xx/7 The Kouk, May-18 08:00
    86/59/xx/xx/6 The real Dave, May-18 15:55
    76/xx/xx/xx/xx The Toorak Toff, May-14 10:06
    82/63/xx/xx/6 Tristo, May-13 18:02
    85+/xx/xx/xx/xx Two In The Bush, May-18 05:26
    77/xx/xx/xx/xx Victoria, May-11 10:41
    79-81/xx/xx/2-3/xx Voice endeavor, May-18 09:49
    81/55/xx/xx/xx/15 vote1julia, May-18 16:50
    65/80/xx/xx/6 Wayne, May-17 15:02
    81/64/xx/xx/6 William Bowe, May-12 23:31
    82/62/xx/xx/7 Work To Rule, May-12 18:17
    85/xx/xx/xx/xx Yabba, May-17 23:08
    76/68/xx/xx/7 Zoomster, May-14 08:12
    80+/xx/xx/xx/xx Zoidlord, May-17 08:03

  25. From the Guardian

    “Word from Zali Steggall’s camp at this stage, is ‘positive’, Paul Karp says. He’ll have more news for you in just a moment, but it seems that climate change is biting in Warringah.”

    How does one spell schadenfreude?

    Can only hope.

  26. I commented the other day that Nine seem uninterested in continuing Greg Hywoods’s strategy for Fairfax of fighting with News for aging right wing readers and by bringing back sub-editors in house may be seeing quality, trustable news gathering as a worthwhile market gap to pursue. Signs good so far.

Comments Page 25 of 26
1 24 25 26

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *