Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

Newspoll ends the campaign with a big sample poll that offers no surprises, with Labor maintaining its modest but decisive edge.

The Australian brings us the final Newspoll of the campaign, and it lands bang on the uniform pollster consensus in recording Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5. Last week’s Newspoll had it at 51-49, but that result involved rounding to whole numbers. On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%.

The poll has a bumper sample of 3008 – it’s not clear when the field work period began, but “2108 interviews were conducted in the 24 hours up until midday yesterday”. Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 46% and down one on disapproval to 45%; Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly, from 45-38 to 47-38.

That should be the final poll for the campaign, and hence the final addition to BludgerTrack, which has been just about carved in stone for the past week. However, the addition of the Newspoll result does cause Labor to make one gain on the seat projection, that being in Victoria, although it has only made a 0.1% difference on the national two-party preferred.

UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have state breakdowns compiled from the last two Ipsos polls, though only two-party preferred numbers are provided so I can’t make use of them in BludgerTrack. I’m not too troubled by this though, as they rather improbably have Labor more strongly placed in New South Wales, where they lead 53-47, than in Victoria, where their lead is 52-48. Elsewhere, it’s 50-50 in Queensland and with the Coalition leading 51-49 in both Western Australia (more-or-less plausibly) and South Australia (less so).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,283 comments on “Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 23 of 26
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  1. Regarding the time of calling it, I think it will be very clear Morrison cant form government fairly early. The Liberals are a minority government to start. The redistribution stacks at least two new seats against them as a given. At least two minors (Bandt and Sharkie I expect) wont vote for them. They only have to lose another two seats and even minority government becomes impossible. They should lose three early, unless Victoria is much less bad than expected. So I really do not see how ScumMo can stay PM. So I think Shorten will be confirmed as PM by 8:15. But all the other seats could take hours if the margins are close and the pre polls are large. Still, worst case, once the pre polls are counted later tonight the government will be gone and margin confirmed. Labor will have a majority or, worst case, rely on Bandt and Sharkie or Wilkie. I think they will have a bigger majority (79+).

  2. Asha Leu

    Dutton’s grasping at every straw he can find. I believe his campaign bought up all the advertising space in Dixon (and GetUp took to the sky?). As the Young Libs say: fun times. 🙂

  7. Boerwar @ #1071 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 4:30 pm

    ‘Asha Leu says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 3:55 pm

    All the Green volunteers I spoke to the day sounded very eager for a Labor victory and (to my mild surprise) very pro-Bill Shorten,… ‘

    Meh.
    The Greens spent six years Killing Bill with the worst of them.
    Di Natale has spent most of the election campaign focusing on trying to parasitize and/or wedge Labor.
    The result? The Greens on a primary of 9-10% and a net loss of reps.
    Too late to play nice now.

    You just hate the fact that the Greens will carry Labor to victory tonight. 😆

  8. Tony trying his new Voter Whisperer technique.

    Look into my eyes, look into my eyes, the eyes, the eyes, not around the eyes, don’t look around my eyes, look into my eyes,you’re under.

  9. Last Newspoll and Galaxy polls for the NSW election underestimated support for the government by 1-2%
    Last Newspoll and Yougov polls for the Vic election underestimated support for the government by 2-4%
    What are the chances they are out by that much in support for the government? I don’t know but I figure $8.00 (on Ladbrokes or 365) is worth a punt.

  11. Ven:

    Same here. Utterly baffled as to what Mark Latham is seeing there, unless he genuinely believes endorsing a non-white candidate is an attack on white people.

  13. Ven says Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 4:41 pm

    How is the Green poster an attack on White people as Latham suggested.

    The person on the photo isn’t white, so it must be an attack on white people, or at least the white people that live in strange world of Mark Latham.

  14. So our infrustructure is crumbling, just look at the NBN thats falling to bits.
    The cost of services is ever increasing, to the point that people can barely pay for their basic utilities
    Then there is the strain of services.
    Wages are stagnating, and not just underemployment, but naked wage theft is rife as the COALition gives a nod and wink to greedy aholes who have no compuncti0n in ripping off the very people they need to keep the businesses that they operate functioning.
    The COALition is paying for theit pet projects, such as giving tax breaks to their mates such as Franking Credits as Negative Gearing.
    The Natural environment is at a crisis point
    and these sheer incompetent morons keep implying to us that things are going gang busters.

    Sheesh, Please, Please may tonight be successful for the bright side tonight

  17. Steelydan @ #715 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 12:13 pm

    Laurie Oakes interview.

    “This election should be over,” Oakes said today.

    “This government has been a rabble, Labor should have been able to tear it apart, should have been able to crush it. Instead we’ve got, on the eve of the election, no one is really sure.

    “The most likely result I would think is Labor falling across the line and just getting there, but some Liberals really think they’ll fall across the line.

    “It shouldn’t have been like that, it should’ve been all over, wrapped up, tied up with a bow and that’s a failure on the Labor Party’s part.

    “I tell you what, if the Liberals do win this election, they’ll have to put up a bloody big statue of Scott Morrison.”

    Why the hell would anyone, including the lnp, want a big statue of a scrotum.

    Oops, sorry my mistake, doesn’t say they want it just that they should put one up.

  19. Socrates I’d agree.

    Labor needs a net 4 seats to win. If the polls are correct then Labor will win a net 9 seats (in notional terms). The first 3-5 of those will be obvious very soon. The only thing that can slow things down is uncertainty over seats under threat to Libs.

  21. Late Riser

    My call, outlandish as it is :

    Labor 81
    Coalition 55
    Other 15
    Antony Green calling it at 8:13pm
    The surprisement of the night will be the record number of Independents & Minor Parties.
    There will be some wild swings (eg Farrer: Kevin Mack to oust Sussan Lay despite a 20.5% margin). I have no idea how these type of wild swings translate into TPP. Maybe William can explain (if he can get off the floor after lhao having read my call!)

  24. @Rex.

    If the Greens didn’t exist, Labor would be fine.

    If Labor didn’t exist, the Greens still wouldn’t be able to form Government.

    The Greens aren’t helping Labor at all

  25. “HughB, they were just the two alleged Rwandan serial murderers Dutton let into the country, trying to earn an honest living.”

    I despise the law and order meme but Labor really should do something about this for the sake of justice. Even New Zealand is aghast at this. These people have allegedly committed serious crimes. They were not following orders, but allegedly giving them. The two men we accepted were the platoon leader and section leader of the militia unit responsible (identity not in dispute). The same unit was involved in the Rwandan genocide (i.e. previous mass murders).

    Both US and Rwandan authorities consider them prime suspects. The case was abandoned once the confessions were tossed so they were never cleared. Another accomplice was convicted of his role in the murders in neighbouring Uganda. They would stand trial if returned to Rwanda. Under Australian war crimes laws or international laws surely their cases should be investigated. Even for their prior roles in the Ugandan genocide (another appalling crime) they should be investigated. If there was a case against them they could stand trial in the Hague.

    To me this case is no different to those of alleged former Nazi and Bosnian Serb war criminals found in Australia and repatriated for trial.

    One of the victims parents now lives in Perth so publicity over this case will not go away.

  27. I snuck in the back way at the local church/polling station and managed to get a democracy sausage just before the mustard ran out (I think I had the last dregs).

    I didn’t have to queue, but all the booths were in use. As I wore my “don’t blame me I voted below the line” t-shirt I voted below the line and numbered all sixty something boxes (sorry Pirate Party, I put you lower than intended, but you weren’t going to get elected anyway).

    When I left the ALP and Nationals volunteers noticed my shirt and commented on it (they were standing next to each other). There were about three people with UAP yellow t-shirts on., plus plenty of Liberals (this is a pretty blue part of Swan). I did ask the ALP guy and Nationals lady if the UAP were hired or loaned from the Libs, but they didn’t seem to know.

    Hopefully we’ll know the result in a few hours.

  29. Poor Latham, how far he has fallen. Wonder if that bout of pancriatitiuos (sp?) after he lost to Howard Scrambled his brain ?

  30. HaveAchat @ #1107 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 4:50 pm

    Steelydan @ #715 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 12:13 pm

    Laurie Oakes interview.

    “This election should be over,” Oakes said today.

    “This government has been a rabble, Labor should have been able to tear it apart, should have been able to crush it. Instead we’ve got, on the eve of the election, no one is really sure.

    “The most likely result I would think is Labor falling across the line and just getting there, but some Liberals really think they’ll fall across the line.

    “It shouldn’t have been like that, it should’ve been all over, wrapped up, tied up with a bow and that’s a failure on the Labor Party’s part.

    “I tell you what, if the Liberals do win this election, they’ll have to put up a bloody big statue of Scott Morrison.”

    Oakes is spot on. Say what you will about the odious Scomo he still thinks he can wear Labor down…..Labor just doesn’t have the killer instinct and Scrote knows it.

  31. Remember Latham got a defamation case brought against him by Osman Faruqi for accusing him of anti White racism among other things. Maybe he likes collecting defamation lawsuits from Faruqis.

    “I think Alex Bhatal the previous candidate, would have had a better chance against her.”

    Bhatal had lost campaigns for the seat too many times. Surely the Greens can produce a better candidate than her. It’s a serial Greens problem, loads of passionate volunteers but they don’t stand, and the people who do tend to be the serial internal politickers.

  32. “Heard Dutton running the line that those young voters who are supporting Labor weren’t old enough to remember the ‘chaos’ of the last Labor govt.”

    Well they were definitely old enough to remember the chaos of this government!

  33. 3 Beers for Bob! Hooray! Hooray! Hooray! Labor’s going to win Forde. Mark my words. The Tories have given up trying. They can’t compete with our Labor volunteers. It’s time to congratulate Des Hardman, the new Labor member for Forde!!!!

  34. “I will be happy with ALP win and Abbott, Hunt and Dutton loosing the seats.”

    I’d be estatic. I think the lyin’ Hunt will survive. other two to go.

  38. “Heard Dutton running the line that those young voters who are supporting Labor weren’t old enough to remember the ‘chaos’ of the last Labor govt.”

    Wasn’t that the gov’t that passed he most bills in the history of the universe?

  41. I strongly suspect Labor will win 80+ but it should be closer to 90+.
    The only reason why not will be the super and franking credit changes and Bill Shorten’s appeal as a leader.

  44. The reason that it wont be a wipeout for the Libs is not a failure of Labor, its the commitment of Labor to be upfront about controversial policies.

    They could have played small-target politics and it would have been easy to win (like Abbott did), but it makes their job harder when they are in, Labor have a better chance of getting their taxes through the senate because they took it to the people. Even a Lib Mp was such as much today.

  46. Heard Dutton running the line that those young voters who are supporting Labor weren’t old enough to remember the ‘chaos’ of the last Labor govt.

    Who was the sockpuppet/muppet trying on the “only baby boomers remember Hawke” BS?

    Good luck with that…

  47. “Bill Shorten’s appeal as a leader.”

    that has nowt to do with it.
    Anyway he’s almost caught up to scomo anyway

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