The Australian brings us the final Newspoll of the campaign, and it lands bang on the uniform pollster consensus in recording Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5. Last week’s Newspoll had it at 51-49, but that result involved rounding to whole numbers. On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%.
The poll has a bumper sample of 3008 – it’s not clear when the field work period began, but “2108 interviews were conducted in the 24 hours up until midday yesterday”. Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 46% and down one on disapproval to 45%; Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly, from 45-38 to 47-38.
That should be the final poll for the campaign, and hence the final addition to BludgerTrack, which has been just about carved in stone for the past week. However, the addition of the Newspoll result does cause Labor to make one gain on the seat projection, that being in Victoria, although it has only made a 0.1% difference on the national two-party preferred.
UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have state breakdowns compiled from the last two Ipsos polls, though only two-party preferred numbers are provided so I can’t make use of them in BludgerTrack. I’m not too troubled by this though, as they rather improbably have Labor more strongly placed in New South Wales, where they lead 53-47, than in Victoria, where their lead is 52-48. Elsewhere, it’s 50-50 in Queensland and with the Coalition leading 51-49 in both Western Australia (more-or-less plausibly) and South Australia (less so).
Been spending the day handing out my local booth in Ryan. All been very pleasant and incident free so far. One guy gave an LNP guy an earful about the preference deal with Palmer, and another went on a very aggressive rant about Bill Shorten and the “this isn’t Australia” ads, but that’s about it. Lots of LNP volunteers, a few Labor (myself included), and a Green or two.
There’s also two young girls handing out for Clive Palmer who I’m pretty sure are backpackers doing it for the money. They don’t seem to have received any advice on using the booth real-estate effectively, with both of them standing together on one side and missing a good portion of people entering.
Most people have either taken no HTVs or all of them. Of those who have just taken one, the LNP has had the best hit rate so far, though only by a little.
Hello fellow bludgers.
William, finally made a donation, thank you for your efforts. Best politics place in Australia.
I’ve been lurking on this site for more than a decade without posting. It’s given an opinionated politics nerd like myself a safe place to feed my habit and enjoy reading mostly informed discourse and banter 🙂
Thought I might as well throw my hat in the ring – 51.8 ALP, just over 80 seats which will settle to a small working majority once pre-polls and postals have been counted.
Now, if you’ll excuse my self indulgence:
This has been an election between two parties:
One party – a united team with a large amount of talent including a high number of women with detailed policies that attempt to redress some of the structural disadvantage and problems present in our society.
As usual their policies don’t go anywhere near far enough and the right wing of the party can “go away” but it’s a good start.
The other party – tired old white males made up of drunks, bigots, religious nutters and ignorant science denying ****wits who hate each other almost as much as they hate the country, are overtly enabling racists and have no policies apart from rent seeking and continuing to do dodgy deals for their mates.
Tough choice.
Special mention to the disgusting level of deliberate lies the Conservatives have thrown out all campaign. Leaving aside the lack of talent, policies and actual plans to do something about the crisis we face with global warming this behaviour just cannot be rewarded.
And as for the Greens? Can we bring back Bob please? Or at least Scott Ludlum or make Adam party leader? Sorry, but our campaign has been nothing and we’re getting absolutely no traction. If we can’t increase our vote with the issues we are facing in this election which should be our bread and butter we need to pack it in and let a new progressive party have a go.
I cant believe I’m saying this but perhaps the Greens need to join with the ALP in a coalition so they can try to get something done.
Hanson? Nothing has changed. She’s still a deliberately ignorant bigot with shocking taste in men. Please “go away” back to QLD.
Clive? Pay your workers you …. Back to Qld please.
Anning- WTF?! You appear dangerously close to an actual white supremacist. *further comments deleted*
Wake up Australia. See ya Hawkie.
Enjoy the night bludgers.
Cheers.
I’m not sure how to interpret the “love machine” comment, but would point out, wrt the typical usage, noone likes a bloke who boasts about how much he’s getting.
@J_C_Campbell
Labor reporting this has been done to Shireen Morris’s signs all over Deakin. #auspol
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6zfA4KVUAAdu5w?format=jpg&name=900×900
Lincoln:
For the population sizes we’re talking about (single electorate / entire country) the proportion of the sample size to the population size isn’t really relevant. In fact, the maximum margin of error for a 500 sample size in a 100,000 population (electorate poll) is worse than for a 3,000 sample size in a 16,000,000 population!
Pre-poll votes = 4.76 million
Postal votes ~ 1.4 million
That is about 37 % of total vote.
C@tmomma @ #247 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 6:06 am
@cat
Have a brilliant day and many thanks to all of you volunteering for Labor. It’s been a mammoth effort by all of you over the past months.
To the rest of us urging you all on, the sight of big smiles on Chloe Shorten and Chloe Shorten’s Husband while voting was bewdifulll.
Happy Election Night Parties to all those having them. We’ll be dodging between all channels – yes, and Sky – and the Swannies. At least I’ve made a birthday cake for OH but all he really wants is to see Morrison concede tonight and Bill being cheered.
from the mood after i just voted is that it does not look good for bill shorten tonight
Just Quietly @11:58.
Obviously a typo in the second para. You’re wishing Wayne a good election.
“Democratic duty fulfilled:”
Dan, Asha….don’t forget to report on the sausages
What a week they say disasters come in threes first my pash rash Doris Day dies, second Hawkie passes on and now Grumpy cat as well, folks lets do it for Bob and confine this mob to the trash can.
Steve777
I will be having a big party tonight after the coalition win the election and our great leader Scott Morrison is returned as PM
Lots of signage, small queue. Was in, out and eating a sausage, bacon and egg sandwich within 5 minutes.
I find Wayne’s irrepressible optimism in the face of strong evidence to be far more refreshing than the pronouncements of some of the ALP/Green doom mongers on here.
Laurie Oakes interview.
“This election should be over,” Oakes said today.
“This government has been a rabble, Labor should have been able to tear it apart, should have been able to crush it. Instead we’ve got, on the eve of the election, no one is really sure.
“The most likely result I would think is Labor falling across the line and just getting there, but some Liberals really think they’ll fall across the line.
“It shouldn’t have been like that, it should’ve been all over, wrapped up, tied up with a bow and that’s a failure on the Labor Party’s part.
“I tell you what, if the Liberals do win this election, they’ll have to put up a bloody big statue of Scott Morrison.”
Just voted in Sturt at Norwood Primary school at about 11am
Quickest I’ve ever voted, absolutely no line.
James Stephens was out the front but too busy having a photo shoot and play acting at handing out HTV cards to actually engage with voters.
He didn’t hang around that long and soon left with his photographer in tow.
Hope it’s a lot closer than he would seem to think it is.
The “Liberals” misleading signs in Chisholm the lead story on the SMH site:
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/liberals-accused-of-misleading-chinese-voters-by-imitating-aec-signage-20190518-p51op4.html
Clive is a lonely box under a tree at my booth. Only one voter has taken a leaflet, and he had to break open the box to get it.
Not even a box for the Greens.
This is how the SMH reported Bish 4 US.
“Asked if she would be offered the position of ambassador to the United States when it becomes vacant next year, Mr Shorten first acknowledged Ms Bishop had said she wants to work in the private sector. He then added: “I’ll certainly be talking to her. I know that her and Penny [Wong] have a very good working relationship … I will always rate her very highly.”
“I’m not going to put a name against a label because we haven’t even won. But I’m saying to you quite unreservedly here, I’ve got a lot of respect for her. Chloe and I know her well. She’s a good person and we can’t waste talent.””
And a statue of Laurie
The vandalism of Shireen Morris’ posters is totally wrong. Hopefully the actions of these hateful people does not effect the vote.
Steve777 @ #687 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 11:56 am
Pretty sure he means in a christian love sense …..
Wayne says:
Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 12:11 pm
Steve777
I will be having a big party tonight after the coalition win the election and our great leader Scott Morrison is returned as PM
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Yep he has fairy cake, freckles and choo choo bars.
Back from the polls for my lunchtime break.
It’s on like Donkey Kong!
Which one’s Scomo’s wife?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owJHNSF9bm0
Laurie Oakes is right.
Missionary.
Annabel Crabb has always been lightweight and more interested in tactics than in what policies are actually good.
I think the AEC spokesperson on those signs doesn’t understand the issue is what the sign says, not just the colour. Really should be an open and shut case of a breach of the law. I daresay the lawyers are on their way.
Good vibe at the booth, lots of people not taking HTVs
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 12:15 pm
Back from the polls for my lunchtime break.
It’s on like Donkey Kong!
==============================================================================
Pray tell beautiful Cat! So quiet here in Bangkok …….
Interesting that the Costello 9 Network has no delivery of “The Age” today because of a production problem
There is apparently a business premises in Bayswater where the Morris signage has been racially defaced to the disgust of many attending Polling Booths
Booths in Deakin are being attended by Pentecostal Preachers handing out Sukkar HTV’s
Diogenes @ #715 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 12:14 pm
Remembering Jewelry warming up the faithful at the 2010 Liberal launch with her stand up routine ridiculing labor…it was vicious.
She deserves contempt. Nothing else.
“This government has been a rabble, Labor should have been able to tear it apart, should have been able to crush it. Instead we’ve got, on the eve of the election, no one is really sure.”
A biased mainstream media and a feral Murdochracy has got to be a big part of the reason. Palmer preferences shovelling discontented voters back to the Coalition could prove another.
Most people are smart enough to see through the crap but they only have to shift a small number at the margins.
“Really should be an open and shut case of a breach of the law. ”
What law though? As far as I can see, Australia has very few laws against anything election related, in terms of what can be said.
Patrick Bateman
“What’s a “careerist lawyer”? I’m a lawyer and know of most lawyers in Adelaide, and I’ve never heard of the bloke in the profession.”
Glad to hear you are in the neighbourhood. I should have said political careerist. He has never had a job outside politics. He studied law.
We have also voted at one of the private school booths further south. We are equal distance from both. I certainly felt the mood at the Magill booth was more Labor friendly this morning than the last time I recall voting there, whatever that means.
Update on the implied mean and standard deviation of ALP seat gains from Betfair.
Seats + 9
Standard deviation 4
LNP Majority 0.5%
LNP Minority 9%
ALP Minority 11%
ALP Majority 80%
In own view is it will a relatively comfortable with around 80 seats.
Off to do HTV in Kooyong for the rest of the afternoon. I doubt my efforts will remove Josh, but I do like he was worried enough to spend big to hang on.
According to AEC they cannot act they staying very strict to electoral act
I.e fuxk all
Boerwar @ #616 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 9:30 am
Given her love of fashion, I think she’d prefer France.
AEC
https://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Publications/backgrounders/polling-places-offences.htm
Also
https://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Publications/Backgrounders/authorisation.htm
Beautiful day for voting in the northern part of Melbourne, I had a sausage, and tonight I am going to an election party and I trust there will be plenty of reasons to take a chug as a pile of bad people loose their seats.
Laurie Oakes knows the real reason
The fibs ran a policy free campaign republican style.
The alp could have done the same and got 100+ seats.
The fibs do what they do best and twist the franking credits into a nasty tax scare campaign…
It has zip to do with Bills popularity.
“According to AEC they cannot act they staying very strict to electoral act”
Which they should. It’s not the AEC’s place to go feral. Even after the WA senate debacle, they’re one of the few public institutions related to politics that still has any level of community respect.
Ta Simon, that first part looks like it may be relevant, assuming the AEC person was correct that the material is authorised.
What can the AEC do? I presume they only have the power to prosecute after the election, with no power to act to remove material?
The good news for Morrison is that this time next week nobody will be trying to distract him with anything at all.
Oakes? Oakes?
Rings a bell…
“from the mood after i just voted is that it does not look good for bill shorten tonight”
If the mood in my electorate is anything to go by, you’ll be on heavy sedatives tonight.
Boerwar
Loons dressed for a formal dinner. Thank you for a few peaceful moments away from the madding crowd. 🙂
Having a lunch break from HTVs. Being the seat of Berowra, no way of knowing if there’s a “vibe”.
In terms of the truthfulness of claims made, sure. But in terms of deceiving people about the voting process the law is quite clear I believe, and the AEC has been quite proactive in the past about stamping down hard on misleading voting instructions in the past.
I would have thought that making your campaign material look at all like official AEC instructions would be a big problem for the AEC and that the law should support action, but IANAL.
This is what the AEC website says:
and
https://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Publications/Backgrounders/authorisation.htm
lizzie
Yep. Dapper to a fault!
Incidentally, I went camping recently and heard, for the first time in decades, the nocturnal calls of Bush Stone-curlews. It was just wonderful.