Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

Newspoll ends the campaign with a big sample poll that offers no surprises, with Labor maintaining its modest but decisive edge.

The Australian brings us the final Newspoll of the campaign, and it lands bang on the uniform pollster consensus in recording Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5. Last week’s Newspoll had it at 51-49, but that result involved rounding to whole numbers. On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%.

The poll has a bumper sample of 3008 – it’s not clear when the field work period began, but “2108 interviews were conducted in the 24 hours up until midday yesterday”. Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 46% and down one on disapproval to 45%; Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly, from 45-38 to 47-38.

That should be the final poll for the campaign, and hence the final addition to BludgerTrack, which has been just about carved in stone for the past week. However, the addition of the Newspoll result does cause Labor to make one gain on the seat projection, that being in Victoria, although it has only made a 0.1% difference on the national two-party preferred.

UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have state breakdowns compiled from the last two Ipsos polls, though only two-party preferred numbers are provided so I can’t make use of them in BludgerTrack. I’m not too troubled by this though, as they rather improbably have Labor more strongly placed in New South Wales, where they lead 53-47, than in Victoria, where their lead is 52-48. Elsewhere, it’s 50-50 in Queensland and with the Coalition leading 51-49 in both Western Australia (more-or-less plausibly) and South Australia (less so).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,284 comments on “Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

  1. “Is there any other way?”

    For some reason, in WA we’ve gone bread rolls. No idea why, but about 15-20 years ago we seemed to switch from sliced bread to rolls.

  2. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 1:14 am

    Barney, you’ll have to pay extra postage and handling charges.

    That’s disgraceful!

    Shouldn’t we be trying to promote and export our democratic ideas to those less fortunate?

  3. Blobbit says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 1:16 am

    “Is there any other way?”

    For some reason, in WA we’ve gone bread rolls. No idea why, but about 15-20 years ago we seemed to switch from sliced bread to rolls.

    Surely that defeats the simple beauty of the whole operation.

    Basic household ingredients combined to create perfection.

  4. If Morrison isn’t dumped as Liberal leader immediately after the election, I see no other reason to do it later but for his performance as opposition leader.

  5. Ideas are free.

    Bread roll, sausage, onions and tomato sauce are at market price, plus postage and petties.

    That’s how the free world revolves, Barney.

  6. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 1:23 am

    Ideas are free.

    Bread roll, sausage, onions and tomato sauce are at market price, plus postage and petties.

    That’s how the free world revolves, Barney.

    Bloody Liberals!

    Imagine what we could do if they hadn’t cut the shit out of the Foreign Aid budget?

  7. If it makes your part of the world feel any better, I’ll put in a good word for Julie Bishop to be appointed Ambassador to Laos.

  8. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 1:30 am

    If it makes your part of the world feel any better, I’ll put in a good word for Julie Bishop to be appointed Ambassador to Laos.

    Why do have so much hostility for Laos?

    It’s a beautiful Country with wonderful, friendly people.

  9. “Surely that defeats the simple beauty of the whole operation.

    Basic household ingredients combined to create perfection.”

    I tend to agree, no idea why it happened. I suspect Bunnings had something to do with it here. Pretty sure in WA they’ve always used buns, rather than a slice of bread.

  10. Blobbit says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 1:35 am

    “Surely that defeats the simple beauty of the whole operation.

    Basic household ingredients combined to create perfection.”

    I tend to agree, no idea why it happened. I suspect Bunnings had something to do with it here. Pretty sure in WA they’ve always used buns, rather than a slice of bread.

    That’s just unAustralian!

  11. “That’s just unAustralian!”

    Now now, we can all accommodate each other’s differences. We put up with you lot…bloody eastern staters

  12. Beware hubris.
    I recall watching Presidential election night where Clinton was supposed to have a 90% probability of winning and an expected record winning margin.

  13. @Rocket

    Sustainable Australia are fairly similar to the Greens, but pathetic of them to not have a how to vote card. Really pathetic

  14. I think the plebescite will come back to bite the Liberals in the ass tomorrow night, a whole lot of young voters are now enrolled and voting for the first time this election and they are conveniently unreachable by traditional landline based polling methods. At least 60 percent of them lean left on social issues according to the results of the marriage equality postal survey. As someone who bizarrely ended up on the socially conservative and economically liberal side of the political spectrum last time I took the ABCs political compass quiz this is a ambivelant reality for me. Undone of course by the fact that my seat is unwinnable for the disendorsed Labor candidate who doesn’t stand a chance. Labor aligns most closely to my political beliefs and Liberal a close second but they are a cluster fuck of infighting and instability at the moment, so I won’t be giving them a decent preverence. The crazy thing is there isn’t even a single party in Australia in my square on the political compass. Sorry for believing that opportunities should be merit based rather than identity based and that democratic socialist economic policy is the only option after neo-liberalism has so obviously failed my generation. How fringe do your political beliefs needs to be before you are obligated to accept that you are a kook? I guess I’m just howling at the Moon at this point. Labor is not left enough economically and too far left socially, but I have no choice other to support them, except they dont have a candidate running in my electorate because he LIKED A QUESTIONABLE MEME SEVEN YEARS AGO. I may just draw a giant cock on my ballot paper. Fuck politics altogether.

  15. Go the goodies!!

    I have never despaired for a change of government as much as this election , though getting rid of Tampa Howard was a close second- his ‘divide and rule’ destroyed Hawke’s unified Oz and gave a nod and wink to overt xenophobia.

    It is a shame that moderates like John Hewson and Fred Chaney can’t make it through the Liberal ranks these days but a loss this time may mean they need to decide on whether there are enough votes in going with the hard right, deeply influenced by the Christian lobby, or the moderates where my Lib voting friends would fall. Most couldn’t vote Labor and would have voted Democrat in years gone by, inspired by the ‘keep the bastards honest’ .

    Nervously waiting like an expectant father-to-be with his wife in labour, sleep is light and intermittent.

    An enormous thanks to all the foot soldiers , the unsung heroes…..I couldn’t do my bit this time because of family illness but can vouch that being part of campaigning is less stressful than watching helplessly from the sidelines.

    So hope Sam Crosby succeeds in Reid today.

  16. From the work of Mr. W. Bowe Esq.

    I liked it a lot better when Labor was showing +22
    but when I ask my favourite daughter
    What do I know ❓
    The response is – of course –
    Nothing.

    And a very good morning to Douglas and Milko.

    Happy Election Day indeed – I have Smiffs Crips – MIcrowave Popcorn – Icecream and Jelly – oodles of Creaming Soda – and a mounting sense of relief.

    😇😍😵 ☮ ☕

  17. And a big thanks to all of you volunteering today to make democracy work.

    A few people have mentioned the failure of the Weimar Republic this week, in what I thought were rather sneering terms.

    The real problem with Weimar was that the army, the judiciary, the captains of industry, and the loony “stabbed-in-the-back black reichwehr” just did not respect the conventions of democracy.

    And I first noticed this happening in Australia with the “Children Overboard” lie.

    It got a lot worse when Tony Abbott became leader of the opposition and then PM. No lie was too great, no smear a step too far. The main stream media got on board enthusiastically with “Democracy is broken”, “Politicians are all conniving, self-seeking bastards”, climate change is crap, people are not really living in poverty, money has not really been ripped our of domestic violence support.

    I started to realise that there has been a consensus by both sides of politics to respect democratic conventions (Westminster in Oz), and that with this being broken, we would easily go the way of the Weimar Republic.

    Of course since then we had Brexit and Trump, and I realise we are in the fight of our lives now to make people believe in democracy again.

    I wonder if this is why we mourn Bob Hawke so much. As well as the man, it is his vision for a fairer Australia, and his respect of democracy that we miss.

    n.b my good wishes do not extend to Frazer Anning, Advance Australia and all the other nutty far right people. These people actually do want to destroy democracy. Just remember, Hitler contested democratic elections, and people handed out for him.

  18. Greetings and best of luck today from a labor man in Hamburg.

    Thanks to everyone who’s worked so hard to get here.

    Let’s hope your efforts pay off with the end of Abbott and Dutton and 85+ seats for the good guys.

    Have a sausage for me.

  19. Just finished setting up our booth material (took a few hours on my own). Lib volunteer rocked up as I was done, a bit daunted that I’d got all the best spots. Nice guy.

  20. Happy Election Day indeed – I have Smiffs Crips – MIcrowave Popcorn – Icecream and Jelly – oodles of Creaming Soda – and a mounting sense of relief.

    I have some sea salt microwave popcorn, too. 🙂

    I’m making beef Chili Colorado (“red”) in the slow cooker using the “holy trinity” of dried chiles: ancho, pasilla (negro), and mulato – with some guajillo for a touch of heat (<= jalapeno.) Some good stock, lots of garlic, a couple of bay leaves, ground cumin, fresh sage and oregano. Simple, but the chiles are a surprising amount of depth and complexity to the flavour.

  21. C’mon NSW! You can do it! 53-47! Today is the day, tonight is the night. Cometh the hour, cometh the man. And the man is Bill Shorten!

  22. I’m off to Captain a booth today and I have Seaweed Snacks, dried Mango Slices and a packet of Snakes (which I am going to pretend are Liberals in the Labor Garden of Eden 😆 )

  23. Douglas and Milko
    Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 5:18 am
    Comment #232

    What’s to be done with TV and newspapers wall to wall, deep pile nonsense. My family are oblivious and half the population like Mr. Morrison, a blatherskite and vacuus FW.
    Policy, direction, vision – don’t be silly, Mr. Whatsisname is not liked because —–: ? :
    Lets blame anyone other than moi. Scary brown or black people – those who worship the wrong God.
    Road to Damascus represents a business opportunity.
    I fear I’m babbling again and because Brown Bear is hibernating I will just have to make my own coffee. Woe is me. Alac alay …..
    Toodles.
    Note – the correct God is named Westpac.

  24. If we’re talking Steam Punk, I have 2 bedside lamps in the steam punk style, all metal and gnarly wire. I found them outside a really expensive house on the verge along with 2 life size wire tailors’ dummies. I snaffled the lot!

  25. How’s this for unique? Our branch secretary is a jewellery designer and she has made all the ladies handing out HTVs a pair of red earrings each to wear today!

  26. I’m off to Captain a booth today and I have Seaweed Snacks, Mango Slices and a packet of Snakes (which I am going to pretend are Liberals in the Labor Garden of Eden )

    Good luck!

    Those seaweed snacks are dangerously more-ish. (“It’s only wafer thin…”)

  27. “The ghost is reporting a swing of 1.2% in victoria, 1.7% in wa, 4.1% in qld.

    That swing in Victoria theoretically gives Corangamite only. In WA , nothing but Hasluck on the edge. In Qld, Dickson, Forde, Petrie, Bonner Leichhardt and possibly Brisbane if I take my view that Central Qld will hold on Adani.”

    Yeah I must say that I’m getting tired of Newscorp suggesting that Liberals will hold all the seats in QLD and challenge in Herbert and Longman after they put out a Newspoll in QLD on the state breakdowns where it’s 50/50. Either their statewide polling in QLD is wrong or there reporting on the marginals is incorrect. They can’t have it both ways either they put up or shut up.

    Ipsos has put out a poll with Labor and Liberals 50/50 in QLD either this poll is wrong or Newscorp marginal polling in QLD is fudged. You can’t have a poll 50/50 and then suggest Labor picks up 1 seat in QLD because seats are bound to fall from the pendulum.

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