The Australian brings us the final Newspoll of the campaign, and it lands bang on the uniform pollster consensus in recording Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5. Last week’s Newspoll had it at 51-49, but that result involved rounding to whole numbers. On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%.
The poll has a bumper sample of 3008 – it’s not clear when the field work period began, but “2108 interviews were conducted in the 24 hours up until midday yesterday”. Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 46% and down one on disapproval to 45%; Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly, from 45-38 to 47-38.
That should be the final poll for the campaign, and hence the final addition to BludgerTrack, which has been just about carved in stone for the past week. However, the addition of the Newspoll result does cause Labor to make one gain on the seat projection, that being in Victoria, although it has only made a 0.1% difference on the national two-party preferred.
UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have state breakdowns compiled from the last two Ipsos polls, though only two-party preferred numbers are provided so I can’t make use of them in BludgerTrack. I’m not too troubled by this though, as they rather improbably have Labor more strongly placed in New South Wales, where they lead 53-47, than in Victoria, where their lead is 52-48. Elsewhere, it’s 50-50 in Queensland and with the Coalition leading 51-49 in both Western Australia (more-or-less plausibly) and South Australia (less so).
This result instills confidence in me that labor will pull it through tomorrow. But still with the herding though. Lets hope they were all right otherwise there will be some big explaining to do from all the pollsters.
We also still don’t know what effect, if any, that the passing of Bob Hawke will have on the vote.
It’s Time, gentlefolk.
So if most of the polling was done prior to Bob left us, there might be a higher 2PP tomorrow ????
Heya Musrum!
Yes indeed!
William,
Let me guess,
BludgerTrack hasn’t budged! 🙂
83 seats for labor and Abbott and Dutton out was always my hope and prediction.
It’s going to happen people.
Enjoy the day tomorrow comrades, it’s going to be a good one for the good guys.
Too funny
rob harris
@rharris334
Sounds like the recriminations within the Liberals in Victoria aren’t even going to wait until the polls close.
Predicting ALP 80, LNP 64, IND 7. But hoping for more for the ALP,would be great to get to 85.
What about the Senate? Hoping ALP and GRN combined have close to 39, although may have to rely on Centre Alliance.
“Herding” is surely just an idea, not a psephological theory of any rigour.
With a PV of 38% the Coalition is doomed
Wait, was this poll conducted BEFORE news of Hawke’s passing? Im overseas and cant tell.
Conor,
If there has been herding then most likely it has been to overstate the L-NP.
I note in passing that this poll result is very close to Bludger Track.
EDIT: if this poll was conducted in the 24 hours to midday yesterday, that’s all before the announcement early yesterday evening of Bob’s passing.
Sample size of 3008, MOe, 1.8% (courtesy of Mr Ghost)
I’m thinking my bet of Labor on 81 is looking pretty good ….
nath – so if a party you support has a local candidate in the Reps who you don’t like you vote informal rather than hold your nose and vote for your preferred party.
This poll is saying what pretty much all polls have been saying for the last two years – the two majors will each pull a vote share in the high 30s, the Greens will get around 10%, and others around 15%, for a 2PP of about 52-48 to Labor. This will give us a House with about 82 ALP, 62 LNP, and 7 others.
BUT – the suspicion remains that a) the polls have been under-representing younger voters, who enrolled in large numbers for the marriage equality vote (thanks Tony!), and b) this particular poll indicates a very late small swing to the ALP (thanks Hawkie!), so the numbers above may well indicate the floor rather than the ceiling for Labor.
Hope so anyway! Thanks as always to William for the ride, and to each and every commenter on this wonderful site – you lot are terrific!
look like 2010 to me.
Mostly lefty-e
2100 were polled before noon yesterday according to ghostie
Labor up 0.1% and one seat on BludgerTrack.
Spence
says:
Friday, May 17, 2019 at 10:43 pm
nath – so if a party you support has a local candidate in the Reps who you don’t like you vote informal rather than hold your nose and vote for your preferred party.
__________________________________
I don’t think BH was voting informal. He was voting Greens.
Looks like 2007 to me.
From the previous thread, for completeness.
———–
OK. Take a bow!
Asha Leu
boatswain1025
lefty e
Leroy
The full list…
PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-05-17
Actual: ALP 51.5 to 48.5 LNP
Median: ALP 52.0 to 48.0 LNP
Mode: ALP 52.0 to 48.0 LNP
Mean: ALP 52.0 to 48.0 LNP
SD: 1.3
No. Of PB Respondents: 40
ALP / LNP
53 / 47 a r *until the election
52 / 48 Andrew_Earlwood *all polls
51.5 / 48.5 Asha Leu
53 / 47 autocrat *for the duration
51.5 / 48.5 boatswain1025
51 / 49 Boerwar
52.5 / 47.5 Boris
52 / 48 Burgey
54 / 46 d-money *all the way to the election
50 / 50 Damo
53 / 47 Dan Gulberry *permanent
52 / 48 Deakin 3rd place 2001
50.5 / 49.5 Evan
51 / 49 Expat *all remaining polls before D-Day
52 / 48 Fozzie Logic *until May 17
53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
51 / 49 Geetroit *until the big day
52 / 48 Goll *until the election
52 / 48 imacca
57 / 43 KayJay *all next polls
50.5 / 49.5 Lars Von Trier
51.5 / 48.5 Late Riser
51.5 / 48.5 lefty e
51.5 / 48.5 Leroy
52.5 / 47.5 NE Qld
50 / 50 Nostradamus
52 / 48 Outsider *Newspoll, ER and Ipsos
53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
55 / 45 Question *until the election
52 / 48 Red13 *up to an including 18/5/19
52 / 48 Roger
52 / 48 Scott
52 / 48 Simon² Katich® *eternal
50.5 / 49.5 Simon² Katich®
53 / 47 sonar *permanent
51 / 49 Steve777 *any remains polls before the big day
50 / 50 Tetsujin *next set of polls
53 / 47 Tricot *any polls
51 / 49 Work To Rule *rest of the week
52 / 48 Zoidlord *polls and final outcome
Cool nath…
Anyway.
My prediction:
2PP: 51.8 ALP
Seats: 81 – 63 – 7
Feels pretty solid…
Henry
Herding is more than a theory. There is plenty of evidence for it. Even with a 3000 sample and 1.8% MOE it’s very very unlikely statistically that the polls have been so close together. There should have been more variation.
Henry says:
Friday, May 17, 2019 at 10:41 pm
It’s a possible explanation for having so many polls in row that show so little variation.
The probability of what we have seen lately with the polls is very very low.
Well this poll’s good news. I was fearing 50-50. Best wishes for those working at polling stations for the Good Guys tomorrow.
Now just waiting for Shows On election night. His caps lock is already ON
Really hoping these numbers are the floor if not accurate.
The country has yet again rejected dumping Prime Ministers.
The whole it was climate change that lost it rejected.
Confirming what Wentworth told us. 🙂
William, is that the final Bludgertrack update?
Poll herding was given as an explanation of the failures of polls overseas, e.g. Brexit, UK elections, Trump.
Ah, that’s a nice note to go to bed on.
nath – don’t be obtuse. I’m checking with H Bastard and yourself why you would think it was clever in the Senate to say – I have spotted some undesirable candidate and I’m exercising my right not to preference them. Fine but the effect is to fail to provide a vote for Labor in this case (or possible Greens in another case) based on a personal dislike.
Sure in the Senate that is still a formal vote. But if the thinking exercise is right, the logic is that in the Reps you would vote informal rather than give a preference to a candidate for Labor, Greens whoever that you don’t like nptwithstanding that you support the party generally.
So. Very. Happy.
Late Riser
Labor 52% and 83 seats.
Thanks.
Who’s counting?
I am!
That is the 200th consecutive poll in Bludgertrack that Labor has been ahead of the Coalition.
There was a Newspoll on 11/9/16 that was 50-50
Then an Essential on 12/9/16 that had Labor ahead 51-49, the first of 200 with Labor ahead.
Since the 2016 election there have been two 50-50s early on, and a total of 209 polls with Labor ahead.
guytaur says:
Friday, May 17, 2019 at 10:49 pm
What will it mean if Phelps gets dumped tomorrow? 🙂
Steve777 @ #2 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 10:48 pm
I feel like the pollsters have been doing their level best to cook up such a result and depict a competitive race. I think the current result is still part of that effort, and the preference allocations (and rounding) are still unrealistically generous to the Coalition.
Still. Everybody panic like it’s 50/50 for one more day! 🙂
Barney
That the LNP voters had their protest vote 🙂
Spence
says:
Friday, May 17, 2019 at 10:52 pm
nath – don’t be obtuse. I’m checking with H Bastard and yourself why you would think it was clever in the Senate to say – I have spotted some undesirable candidate and I’m exercising my right not to preference them. Fine but the effect is to fail to provide a vote for Labor in this case (or possible Greens in another case) based on a personal dislike.
Sure in the Senate that is still a formal vote. But if the thinking exercise is right, the logic is that in the Reps you would vote informal rather than give a preference to a candidate for Labor, Greens whoever that you don’t like nptwithstanding that you support the party generally.
___________________________
Well in the House it would depend on how the candidates stacked up. I would vote for some Liberals over SDA creatures, not all Libs but some of them. Same with Kitching, and a few others. Of course if Kitching was up against K Andrews or Abbott it would necessitate some deep thinking.
Late Riser. Alp 51.8 end of count. 52.4 tomorrow night at Antony’s final wrap. 79 seats at the end. Time to retire before handing out for Fiona Phillips in Gilmore. Not a party member but she has worked hard on the ground for 6 years and has my respect and support. Enjoy democracy in action tomorrow.
So, on track for the lowest PV to win government from opposition in the history of history.
Everything crossed for a change of Government!
This is going to be nerve wracking!
ar – agree. Fine if people panic and do something sensible like talk to friends and rellies about how to get preferences right, how to vote in Senate etc. Not so fine if people do headless chooks parade.
sprocket
Just love seeing that little “lower house” graphic on The Australian webpage finally move – now to Labor 80, Coalition 65 and Other 6.
Kevin Bonham
Typical 2PP for these primaries would be 51.7 by #Newspoll method and 52.3 by previous election prefs.
Even if Newspoll’s preferences are correct, Labor would be unlucky to not get a majority on this.
The last Newspoll before Turnbull’s ousting was:
“Newspoll, conducted August 9-12 from a sample of 1,607, gave Labor a 51-49 lead, unchanged on last fortnight. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down two), 35% Labor (down one), 10% Greens (steady) and 9% One Nation (up two).”
Morrison is worse! Oh, how do you feel, Malcolm?
Perhaps the pollsters are just getting better at polling, who knows.
Still not convinced about this herding caper, there is no evidence for it.
Besides, since when have pollsters really given a damn what their competitors are doing ? There have been numerous recent examples of newspoll, ipsos etc having vastly different results for the same polling period.