Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

Newspoll ends the campaign with a big sample poll that offers no surprises, with Labor maintaining its modest but decisive edge.

The Australian brings us the final Newspoll of the campaign, and it lands bang on the uniform pollster consensus in recording Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5. Last week’s Newspoll had it at 51-49, but that result involved rounding to whole numbers. On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%.

The poll has a bumper sample of 3008 – it’s not clear when the field work period began, but “2108 interviews were conducted in the 24 hours up until midday yesterday”. Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 46% and down one on disapproval to 45%; Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly, from 45-38 to 47-38.

That should be the final poll for the campaign, and hence the final addition to BludgerTrack, which has been just about carved in stone for the past week. However, the addition of the Newspoll result does cause Labor to make one gain on the seat projection, that being in Victoria, although it has only made a 0.1% difference on the national two-party preferred.

UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have state breakdowns compiled from the last two Ipsos polls, though only two-party preferred numbers are provided so I can’t make use of them in BludgerTrack. I’m not too troubled by this though, as they rather improbably have Labor more strongly placed in New South Wales, where they lead 53-47, than in Victoria, where their lead is 52-48. Elsewhere, it’s 50-50 in Queensland and with the Coalition leading 51-49 in both Western Australia (more-or-less plausibly) and South Australia (less so).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,284 comments on “Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

  1. This result instills confidence in me that labor will pull it through tomorrow. But still with the herding though. Lets hope they were all right otherwise there will be some big explaining to do from all the pollsters.

  2. 83 seats for labor and Abbott and Dutton out was always my hope and prediction.
    It’s going to happen people.
    Enjoy the day tomorrow comrades, it’s going to be a good one for the good guys.

  3. Too funny

    rob harris
    @rharris334
    Sounds like the recriminations within the Liberals in Victoria aren’t even going to wait until the polls close.

  4. Predicting ALP 80, LNP 64, IND 7. But hoping for more for the ALP,would be great to get to 85.

    What about the Senate? Hoping ALP and GRN combined have close to 39, although may have to rely on Centre Alliance.

  5. I note in passing that this poll result is very close to Bludger Track.

    EDIT: if this poll was conducted in the 24 hours to midday yesterday, that’s all before the announcement early yesterday evening of Bob’s passing.

  6. nath – so if a party you support has a local candidate in the Reps who you don’t like you vote informal rather than hold your nose and vote for your preferred party.

  7. This poll is saying what pretty much all polls have been saying for the last two years – the two majors will each pull a vote share in the high 30s, the Greens will get around 10%, and others around 15%, for a 2PP of about 52-48 to Labor. This will give us a House with about 82 ALP, 62 LNP, and 7 others.

    BUT – the suspicion remains that a) the polls have been under-representing younger voters, who enrolled in large numbers for the marriage equality vote (thanks Tony!), and b) this particular poll indicates a very late small swing to the ALP (thanks Hawkie!), so the numbers above may well indicate the floor rather than the ceiling for Labor.

    Hope so anyway! Thanks as always to William for the ride, and to each and every commenter on this wonderful site – you lot are terrific!

  8. Spence
    says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 10:43 pm
    nath – so if a party you support has a local candidate in the Reps who you don’t like you vote informal rather than hold your nose and vote for your preferred party.
    __________________________________
    I don’t think BH was voting informal. He was voting Greens.

  9. From the previous thread, for completeness.
    ———–
    OK. Take a bow!

    Asha Leu
    boatswain1025
    lefty e
    Leroy

    The full list…

    PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-05-17
    Actual: ALP 51.5 to 48.5 LNP
    Median: ALP 52.0 to 48.0 LNP
    Mode: ALP 52.0 to 48.0 LNP
    Mean: ALP 52.0 to 48.0 LNP
    SD: 1.3
    No. Of PB Respondents: 40

    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 a r *until the election
    52 / 48 Andrew_Earlwood *all polls
    51.5 / 48.5 Asha Leu
    53 / 47 autocrat *for the duration
    51.5 / 48.5 boatswain1025
    51 / 49 Boerwar
    52.5 / 47.5 Boris
    52 / 48 Burgey
    54 / 46 d-money *all the way to the election
    50 / 50 Damo
    53 / 47 Dan Gulberry *permanent
    52 / 48 Deakin 3rd place 2001
    50.5 / 49.5 Evan
    51 / 49 Expat *all remaining polls before D-Day
    52 / 48 Fozzie Logic *until May 17
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    51 / 49 Geetroit *until the big day
    52 / 48 Goll *until the election
    52 / 48 imacca
    57 / 43 KayJay *all next polls
    50.5 / 49.5 Lars Von Trier
    51.5 / 48.5 Late Riser
    51.5 / 48.5 lefty e
    51.5 / 48.5 Leroy
    52.5 / 47.5 NE Qld
    50 / 50 Nostradamus
    52 / 48 Outsider *Newspoll, ER and Ipsos
    53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
    55 / 45 Question *until the election
    52 / 48 Red13 *up to an including 18/5/19
    52 / 48 Roger
    52 / 48 Scott
    52 / 48 Simon² Katich® *eternal
    50.5 / 49.5 Simon² Katich®
    53 / 47 sonar *permanent
    51 / 49 Steve777 *any remains polls before the big day
    50 / 50 Tetsujin *next set of polls
    53 / 47 Tricot *any polls
    51 / 49 Work To Rule *rest of the week
    52 / 48 Zoidlord *polls and final outcome

  10. Henry
    Herding is more than a theory. There is plenty of evidence for it. Even with a 3000 sample and 1.8% MOE it’s very very unlikely statistically that the polls have been so close together. There should have been more variation.

  11. Henry says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 10:41 pm

    “Herding” is surely just an idea, not a psephological theory of any rigour.

    It’s a possible explanation for having so many polls in row that show so little variation.

    The probability of what we have seen lately with the polls is very very low.

  12. Well this poll’s good news. I was fearing 50-50. Best wishes for those working at polling stations for the Good Guys tomorrow.

  13. Really hoping these numbers are the floor if not accurate.

    The country has yet again rejected dumping Prime Ministers.
    The whole it was climate change that lost it rejected.

    Confirming what Wentworth told us. 🙂

  14. nath – don’t be obtuse. I’m checking with H Bastard and yourself why you would think it was clever in the Senate to say – I have spotted some undesirable candidate and I’m exercising my right not to preference them. Fine but the effect is to fail to provide a vote for Labor in this case (or possible Greens in another case) based on a personal dislike.

    Sure in the Senate that is still a formal vote. But if the thinking exercise is right, the logic is that in the Reps you would vote informal rather than give a preference to a candidate for Labor, Greens whoever that you don’t like nptwithstanding that you support the party generally.

  15. Who’s counting?

    I am!

    That is the 200th consecutive poll in Bludgertrack that Labor has been ahead of the Coalition.

    There was a Newspoll on 11/9/16 that was 50-50

    Then an Essential on 12/9/16 that had Labor ahead 51-49, the first of 200 with Labor ahead.

    Since the 2016 election there have been two 50-50s early on, and a total of 209 polls with Labor ahead.

  16. guytaur says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 10:49 pm

    Really hoping these numbers are the floor if not accurate.

    The country has yet again rejected dumping Prime Ministers.
    The whole it was climate change that lost it rejected.

    Confirming what Wentworth told us.

    What will it mean if Phelps gets dumped tomorrow? 🙂

  17. Steve777 @ #2 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 10:48 pm

    Well this poll’s good news. I was fearing 50-50.

    I feel like the pollsters have been doing their level best to cook up such a result and depict a competitive race. I think the current result is still part of that effort, and the preference allocations (and rounding) are still unrealistically generous to the Coalition.

    Still. Everybody panic like it’s 50/50 for one more day! 🙂

  18. Spence
    says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 10:52 pm
    nath – don’t be obtuse. I’m checking with H Bastard and yourself why you would think it was clever in the Senate to say – I have spotted some undesirable candidate and I’m exercising my right not to preference them. Fine but the effect is to fail to provide a vote for Labor in this case (or possible Greens in another case) based on a personal dislike.
    Sure in the Senate that is still a formal vote. But if the thinking exercise is right, the logic is that in the Reps you would vote informal rather than give a preference to a candidate for Labor, Greens whoever that you don’t like nptwithstanding that you support the party generally.
    ___________________________
    Well in the House it would depend on how the candidates stacked up. I would vote for some Liberals over SDA creatures, not all Libs but some of them. Same with Kitching, and a few others. Of course if Kitching was up against K Andrews or Abbott it would necessitate some deep thinking.

  19. Late Riser. Alp 51.8 end of count. 52.4 tomorrow night at Antony’s final wrap. 79 seats at the end. Time to retire before handing out for Fiona Phillips in Gilmore. Not a party member but she has worked hard on the ground for 6 years and has my respect and support. Enjoy democracy in action tomorrow.

  20. ar – agree. Fine if people panic and do something sensible like talk to friends and rellies about how to get preferences right, how to vote in Senate etc. Not so fine if people do headless chooks parade.

  21. Kevin Bonham

    Typical 2PP for these primaries would be 51.7 by #Newspoll method and 52.3 by previous election prefs.

    Even if Newspoll’s preferences are correct, Labor would be unlucky to not get a majority on this.

  22. The last Newspoll before Turnbull’s ousting was:

    “Newspoll, conducted August 9-12 from a sample of 1,607, gave Labor a 51-49 lead, unchanged on last fortnight. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down two), 35% Labor (down one), 10% Greens (steady) and 9% One Nation (up two).”

    Morrison is worse! Oh, how do you feel, Malcolm?

  23. Perhaps the pollsters are just getting better at polling, who knows.
    Still not convinced about this herding caper, there is no evidence for it.
    Besides, since when have pollsters really given a damn what their competitors are doing ? There have been numerous recent examples of newspoll, ipsos etc having vastly different results for the same polling period.

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