Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

Newspoll ends the campaign with a big sample poll that offers no surprises, with Labor maintaining its modest but decisive edge.

The Australian brings us the final Newspoll of the campaign, and it lands bang on the uniform pollster consensus in recording Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5. Last week’s Newspoll had it at 51-49, but that result involved rounding to whole numbers. On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%.

The poll has a bumper sample of 3008 – it’s not clear when the field work period began, but “2108 interviews were conducted in the 24 hours up until midday yesterday”. Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 46% and down one on disapproval to 45%; Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly, from 45-38 to 47-38.

That should be the final poll for the campaign, and hence the final addition to BludgerTrack, which has been just about carved in stone for the past week. However, the addition of the Newspoll result does cause Labor to make one gain on the seat projection, that being in Victoria, although it has only made a 0.1% difference on the national two-party preferred.

UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have state breakdowns compiled from the last two Ipsos polls, though only two-party preferred numbers are provided so I can’t make use of them in BludgerTrack. I’m not too troubled by this though, as they rather improbably have Labor more strongly placed in New South Wales, where they lead 53-47, than in Victoria, where their lead is 52-48. Elsewhere, it’s 50-50 in Queensland and with the Coalition leading 51-49 in both Western Australia (more-or-less plausibly) and South Australia (less so).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,284 comments on “Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

  1. On Paul Murray live, markson said approx 2000 of the 3000 responses to newspoll were collected after news of Hawke’s death broke.

    Not sure how this reconciles with the poll having been completed by noon yesterday, but in the end it doesn’t matter. Bob will almost certainly be celebrating a Labor victory tomorrow, wherever he is now. I know we will be.

  2. Nath “Well in the House it would depend on how the candidates stacked up. I would vote for some Liberals over SDA creatures, not all Libs but some of them.”

    Any “Liberal” who gets elected, even a liberal, would be a cipher for the hard right that controls the party. A vote for the “Liberals” is a vote for cuts, for privatisation, for continued climate inaction, for screwing workers, for the religious right, for giving and and comfort to racists and other bigots…

  3. guytaur says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 10:55 pm

    Barney

    That the LNP voters had their protest vote

    Good little Tories!

    One dummy spit, now home you come.

    Of course Phelps’ initial election could have been down to low turn out at the by-election.

  4. On Paul Murray live, markson said approx 2000 of the 3000 responses to newspoll were collected after news of Hawke’s death broke.

    Fibrils just establishing excuse narrative … it’s all Bob’s fault

  5. William, why do you have a note for Lindsay saying ‘LNP incumbency loss’ on Bludgertrack? Shouldn’t it be an ALP incumbency loss?

  6. nath – OK I think we have sorted out that you jump around based on personal views of candidates rather than general philosophy of a party. That’s fine there are plenty of people who do that. Puts you in the non-party swinging voter category. Rex Douglas is the same. Happy to vote for or preference Libs on occasions.

    Just annoying that some blinkered Labor supporters here use you and Rex as examples of Greens supporters, or even dog forbid spokepersons, for the purpose of attacking Greens. It has always been a straw argument for people who dont read carefully or just want to run a line. But thanks for clarifying your position.

  7. “51.7% off Newpoll and 52.3% off previous preferences.

    According to KBonham”

    So, my feel that this is actually a 52% 2PP is correct.

    Maybe we are looking at a 52.5% 2PP in the final washup. But with the swing concentrated where the government is most vulnerable even a 51-49 national result would be more than enough.

    Could be a blood bath. Hope so.

  8. Courier Mail still Turd Polishing – don’t you know its all the Southern States that have done this!

    “SCOTT Morrison is the overwhelming preferred Prime Minister in four critical Queensland seats that also back the Coalition on jobs, traffic congestion and border security, an exclusive poll for The Courier-Mail reveals.

    However, Bill Shorten is on track to become prime minister with southern states swinging to Labor although this may not deliver him enough seats to avoid a hung parliament.”

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/federal-election-2019-scott-morrison-preferred-pm-in-critical-qld-seats/news-story/220cae7b02598b507f7a8b99f752b3f9

  9. “2108 interviews were conducted in the 24 hours up until midday yesterday”

    Given the paper is written for Saturday that means to me the polling was done up to midday Friday

    I was polled by Galaxy on Thursday night abt 8pm. Are they Newspoll?

  10. I spent most of today handing out Labor cards at a booth in Cowan. Anne Aly was present for a while and was very warmly greeted by voters. The total voters attending was 7-8 times more than on any day in the first two weeks. Similar high attendance was reported from the other northern prepoll centres in Cowan, Moore and Pearce. The weight of support today was clearly for Labor. Clearly.

    On the indications today – in a booth that would not usually be strongly for Labor – are that Anne Aly will be very easily returned in Cowan; that Labor’s Kim Travers will win Pearce; that voters want change.

    Labor win.

  11. Its still a contest people. 🙂

    We get out and do it tomorrow at the booths with confidence and optimism but knowing it aint over till Anthony Green (hallowed be his name) calls it.

    And if he calls it before i’m finished scrutineering and i am not at the bowls club when it happens…a certain ALP organizer better have a plane ticket to somewhere far far away………….. 🙂

    Good luck all.

  12. “LR Please put me down for Final 2PP Lab 52.1 and 82 seats.”

    I’ll take some of the Mensa magic yabba. Put me down for the same LR.

  13. Spence
    says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 11:09 pm
    nath – OK I think we have sorted out that you jump around based on personal views of candidates rather than general philosophy of a party. That’s fine there are plenty of people who do that. Puts you in the non-party swinging voter category. Rex Douglas is the same. Happy to vote for or preference Libs on occasions.
    Just annoying that some blinkered Labor supporters here use you and Rex as examples of Greens supporters, or even dog forbid spokepersons, for the purpose of attacking Greens. It has always been a straw argument for people who dont read carefully or just want to run a line. But thanks for clarifying your position.
    ______________________________
    Well I like the Greens, certainly not a member or spokesman. But if down to 2pp that’s pretty much my view. It would take a pretty bad ALP candidate and a pretty good liberal to get me to give my prefs to liberal in most circumstances.

  14. Oh, and congrats William. Looks to me like Bludgertrack was and is the best indicator for a reasonable and accurate stab at the polling situation. Many thanks and glad to have done the presspatron thing.

  15. The untouchable issue in this election from the standpoint of the Lib-Libs has been household incomes.

    Voters in the metro marginals are very very sore about this. If they vote their financial deprivation, the Libs will lose 30 seats.

  16. Libs pretty cocky in Pearce. But the vibe today very positive.

    Wife and I ended up on pre-poll all day on our day off and perhaps swayed a few people with good conversations.

    Just got back from doing some minimalist signage at polling stations and that’s where the family will be tomorrow. National win and a narrow loss in Pearce would do me, but I have feeling we might get the quinella with a little bit of luck.

  17. “To all NSW voters
    Tomorrow is the chance to send Alan Jones off into retirement – he has promised to quit radio and all public appearences if Labor wins.”

    And Nath to the Alps. Not sure whether he means Victorian or Swiss.

  18. Most of the impact of Hawke passing wont have registered in this poll. No one would say Hawkie’s passed, I’m changing my vote to Labor. The impact comes, if it does, from people getting informed about a successful Labor Govt that could manage an economy at least as well as Liberals and do some big things like Medicare, Capital Gains Tax, thinking about Indigenous rights etc. That takes a while to sink in – lot of fog in the way in many cases.

  19. Henry says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 11:01 pm

    Perhaps the pollsters are just getting better at polling, who knows.
    Still not convinced about this herding caper, there is no evidence for it.
    Besides, since when have pollsters really given a damn what their competitors are doing ? There have been numerous recent examples of newspoll, ipsos etc having vastly different results for the same polling period.

    Grab a coin and try and toss 14 heads in a row.

    Statistically what we’ve seen with the polls is less likely to occur than that.

    Does that mean herding has happened?

    No, but it’s a possible explanation to a highly unlikely set of events.

  20. Hey all,

    Been way too busy to comment much here over the last few weeks, but really enjoyed following the chat. Good guys to win.

    LR, put me down for 53.6 final count and bugger it – I’m sticking with 94 seats too!

  21. Pearce is the one close seat in WA where the donkey vote has flipped to Labor – ie Lib in 2016, Labor in 2019. Effect is to reduce the observable swing needed to unseat Porter by about 1%.

    All other WA marginals – Libs have donkey vote and in Swan flipped from Labor in 2016 – so Swan has a c 1% addon to swing needed.

  22. I, for one, am hoping for a clear Labor majority in the HoR and, at the very least, a reasonable-minded Senate. I despise this government and all that it doesn’t stand for. There is nothing wrong with being a Liberal, but this current breed of xenophobic, environment pillaging, faux-religious crusading, money launderers needs to be extinguished. Hoping for a Labor 53%!

  23. Henry
    There are lots of reasons for herding. One is you reset your heuristics and demographics to retrieve an outlier poll that makes you look silly. Another is you don’t bother collecting and analysing your data properly and just put out a poll which matches what is expected.
    Eg Diopoll 2416 responses 51.3% LaborTPP. Lib 38 Lab 37 Green 10. Here’s my bill for $60K.

  24. I think Labor will win comfortably. Everything is running against the Libs at the business end of the electoral cycle. Household financial pressures/real incomes; pressure on public services; climate change; their internal political issues….their utter policy emptiness….these all outweigh their media campaigns. We can add Labor’s field campaigns into the mix.

    The Lib-Libs are beaten. Labor win.

  25. Morrison talking about a minority Coalition government and talking up the crossbenchers.

    That is political poison – people will vote for stability.

    And – I just found out that Grumpy Cat died!

  26. Not good

    “POLICE are searching for a man who stabbed a Tony Abbott campaigner while the volunteer was putting up election campaign material in Sydney’s northern beaches on Friday night.

    Volunteers armed with Tony Abbott posters and campaign material went to Balgowlah Heights Public School at 8.20pm to prepare for today’s election.”

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/tony-abbott-volunteer-stabbed-at-school-on-poll-eve/news-story/3237dfbabbaff6ac0b5015b13f2746a5

  27. William – brilliant on the quick updates.

    I guess you are busy on the presentations for tomorrow night but Q – you have adjusted the states a bit differently from this Newspoll. Does that mean you have state breakdowns for the figures. Similar Q re Essential – you mentioned state breakdowns but not published. Guessing they are not for publication?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *