Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

Newspoll ends the campaign with a big sample poll that offers no surprises, with Labor maintaining its modest but decisive edge.

The Australian brings us the final Newspoll of the campaign, and it lands bang on the uniform pollster consensus in recording Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5. Last week’s Newspoll had it at 51-49, but that result involved rounding to whole numbers. On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%.

The poll has a bumper sample of 3008 – it’s not clear when the field work period began, but “2108 interviews were conducted in the 24 hours up until midday yesterday”. Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 46% and down one on disapproval to 45%; Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly, from 45-38 to 47-38.

That should be the final poll for the campaign, and hence the final addition to BludgerTrack, which has been just about carved in stone for the past week. However, the addition of the Newspoll result does cause Labor to make one gain on the seat projection, that being in Victoria, although it has only made a 0.1% difference on the national two-party preferred.

UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have state breakdowns compiled from the last two Ipsos polls, though only two-party preferred numbers are provided so I can’t make use of them in BludgerTrack. I’m not too troubled by this though, as they rather improbably have Labor more strongly placed in New South Wales, where they lead 53-47, than in Victoria, where their lead is 52-48. Elsewhere, it’s 50-50 in Queensland and with the Coalition leading 51-49 in both Western Australia (more-or-less plausibly) and South Australia (less so).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,284 comments on “Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

  1. Graham @ #197 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 1:09 am

    “Just out of interest, how did the Libs depress wages?”

    Principally by criminalising strikes.

    Employers don’t give wage increases out of the goodness of their hearts, they do so out of fear of industrial action.

    Legislation introduced by various LNP governments has been designed so that any industrial action will result in fines or monetary damages such as to cripple the unions and their individual leaders.

    As a result unions have little to no bargaining powers and therefore fewer and weaker wage bargains are struck.

    Remember this people when you go to vote today. Let it be one of the things that guides you. We need fairness. Fairness is important.

  2. That Chili Colorado sounds a treat

    It’s based on this recipe:
    https://www.bonappetit.com/recipes/article/groat-ricks-chili-colorado

    This time I want shredded beef rather than a “stew”, so step 1 is to bung the beef and stock into the slow cooker and wait. And wait. Don’t panic if it looks like it is turning into boot leather (“Apply gin!”), and wait some more.

    If it all goes horribly wrong, I still have the dried chiles – and plan B in the freezer. 😉

  3. D & M

    “respect for democracy”.

    Yes, Howard and Abbott led the charge to throw it out, and we still haven’t got rid of the pair of them. 🙁

  4. I’m hoping there won’t be too much aggro at the booths. People such as Abbott seem to stimulate it. And then there are the pseudo Nazi types. Be safe, everyone.

  5. Woooo Hooooo Newspoll. What a nice thing to be greeted with this morning. What a shame they had fractions and did not round up the numbers 🙂

  6. A litle distraction – hummingbird robots.

    Hummingbirds – and insects – don’t use conventional aerodynamics, and their wings are both resilient and astonishingly flexible.

    “The physics is simply different; the aerodynamics is inherently unsteady, with high angles of attack and high lift,” said project leader Xinyan Deng, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at Purdue University in Indiana, in a prepared statement.

    “This makes it possible for smaller, flying animals to exist, and also possible for us to scale down flapping wing robots.”

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/science/2019/05/17/cute-hummingbird-drone/

  7. Expecting those on the right on our tv screens to go on about how the Coalition has more PV than the ALP. Guaranteed to be one of the themes to try and legitimise that the ALP shouldn’t be in government. It will happen.

  8. Woooo Hooooo Newspoll. What a nice thing to be greeted with this morning. What a shame they had fractions and did not round up the numbers

    I hated “significant digits” in Physics…

    They’re showing the first decimal place now because they have a larger sample – but they still hide the margin-of-error in the fine print!

    “51 +/- 7” and “51.5 +/- 3.1” (or whatever) would be more honest – but doesn’t support the narrative.

  9. Good luck today to all progressive candidates and supporters. This is the first election I’ve put my hand in my pocket to help-it feels to me a lot more important now than in 2016 to change the government. The polls suggest Labor can do it, but the swing is quite modest, I think we are going to be riding a lot of highs and lows tonight as the results come in. Cheers everyone.

  10. “Lands bang on the uniform pollster consensus” eh? Herding! They’ve stolen your job William. LR, please book me for 47.3-52.7. Seats? 85+ Gotta go and do a shift at the pollling place now – bye…

  11. As a ex-Greens voter who moved from Tasmania to Queensland just over 10 years ago I’ve been campaigning heavily on the ground for Labor in Dickson.

    It is not until you spend significant time in a different state from the one you were brought up in that you start to realise that Australia is not the homogeneous country it might appear at first glance. I am always caught off guard by the political conservatism found is large sections of the Queensland public.

    After six months of phone banking for Labor in Dickson my bubble, that we’re all known to live in, has certainly turned opaque. The divide between one’s own seemingly reasonable belief structure and folk from the other side of politics has never been wider.

    What’s it based upon?

    Well it really does seem to be misinformation, lies, propaganda, generational voting habits, and outright ignorance. I have tried were possible to engage in conversations with conservative and reactionary voters to try and get some glimmer of their belief systems.

    In some instances these beliefs are based upon self interest, think franking credits and reverses to capital gains, these are stances I can respect because at least voting for purely self interest makes some sense. The rest just seem to be voting our of hate r fear, nothing actually concrete in their thoughts and reasons and when pushed can only back up their decision with one line statements which echo the LNP’s own.

    So what does this mean for the election, well I’ll leave the national commentary to others, but for Dickson I am saying that this will be tight, probably not known on the nights, most likely a recount and only won on a few hundreds but maybe tens of votes. If Peter Dutton wins expect a challenge in the high court on his eligibility under section 44. If Ali France wins expect Dickson to stay with Labor for 2 or 3 elections.

  12. Morning all.

    Will be handing out HTVs this morning, looking forward to it despite the chilly weather and the polling place I’m at gets next to no sun on the front of the building. 🙁

    I still cannot believe how well Morrison has done to make the coalition even competitive. They have no record of achievement, and can only campaign on not being Labor/Bill Shorten.

    It’s madness!

  13. kirky says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 6:45 am
    Expecting those on the right on our tv screens to go on about how the Coalition has more PV than the ALP.

    ——————-
    Trend of the Libs/nats combined primary vote and lost of seats since government
    2013 Libs/nats won office , Libs/nats combined primary vote 45.6% = 90 seats
    2016 Libs/nats combined primary vote 42.1% ( -3.1% ) = 76 seats (14 seat lost from 2013)
    if opinion polling accurate
    2019 Libs/nats combined primary vote 38.0% (- 4.1%) = 55 seats (22 seat lost from 2016)

    what is clear its impossible for the libs/nats not to lose seats or to get net gain seats ( on top of the 74 seats they hold)

  14. Im Tasmanian and wish the ad man would piss off, even if keeps going to the north and im in the south i can feel the bad force

    Bout to go and work on my kids school sausage sizzle……….hoping for a change of government today.

    Nervous

  15. Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk

    When Bob Hawke won in 1983, GDP growth was -2.3%; yes that is a minus sign
    Unemployment was 10.0%
    Interest rates were 10%
    Inflation was 11.4%
    This was the legacy of John Howard as Treasurer who somehow now claims to be a good economic manager

    When you have all the conservative papers backing you, the myths live for ever.

  16. As a ex-Greens voter who moved from Tasmania to Queensland just over 10 years ago I’ve been campaigning heavily on the ground for Labor in Dickson.

    We’re thinking of heading the other way (or east – NZ), for climatic reasons.
    As FDOTM says, “don’t come here – it’s terrible.”

    It was an exciting election last time in Dickson, but alas.
    $1M+ spent this time to defend the indefensible doesn’t surprise me; it might work.

    Keep looking up; you might see GetUp’s election day “stunt” (I’m guessing it’s skywriters.)

  17. PvO has a somber column today, he says that if the coalition can form govt Morrison will have greater authority in the Liberal party, and will be politically dominant. If, as is looking likely however, and Labor win narrowly, the temptation for the Liberals seeing a quick path back to govt will be too much, Morrison will stay on as leader, and the party won’t do the heavy lifting to reform itself that is needed.

    And then there are the Nationals.

    Let’s not forget that the worsening problems for the conservative side of politics are exacerbated by the divisions within and with the Nationals, who no longer know who they really represent. The attitudes of farmers (who overwhelmingly believe in climate change), mining communities (which overwhelming don’t care about it) and coastal ­regional communities (which are turning green) are so disparate as to render it nigh impossible to represent them all under one party banner. And that’s before we even address the personality disputes, state divides and the problems ­created by the Frankenstein beast that is the LNP.

    So whether the Coalition wins or loses, its problems will persist.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/hopes-for-a-bright-new-future-border-on-the-delusional/news-story/40ad7316fc1c45a37b4bd699c6dfab70

  18. Mike Carlton@MikeCarlton01
    38m38 minutes ago

    Things I want to see.
    A clear Labor majority.
    Abbott, Dutton, Hunt and Porter gone.
    Coalition chaos.
    Liberal Party internal warfare
    Alan Jones in hysterics
    The Murdochracy humiliated.

    Amen to that.

  19. brrrr bit icy this morrow
    alp 83 coal don’t care , others ditto.
    90 wouldn’t surprise me at all.

    Edit
    prepolls 2.5% in alp’s favour for a change.

  20. Good luck to everyone this morning and thanks to all helping today.

    I don’t think it is possible for Labor to do worse than 74 seats and minority government, and I think they will secure a comfortable majority, well ahead of the Coalition because of about six or so cross-benchers.

    Tonight on TV the most common narrative from Coalition commentators will be “Wait till the prepolls are counted later – they will reverse this result and Morrison will win”. I expect the first utterance of this by 730 pm – maybe earlier on Sky News!

  21. Confessions @ #270 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 7:02 am

    Morning all.

    Will be handing out HTVs this morning, looking forward to it despite the chilly weather and the polling place I’m at gets next to no sun on the front of the building. 🙁

    I still cannot believe how well Morrison has done to make the coalition even competitive. They have no record of achievement, and can only campaign on not being Labor/Bill Shorten.

    It’s madness!

    It’s not really when you think about it.Scomo is an ad man and an ad mans job is to make us buy things we don’t need,so really all he has been doing is getting people to buy the product that he is spruiking.Nothing more and nothing less.

  22. Doing my morning walking and walking past polling station. No posters yet of any party and the gates of the school where polling held are closed

  23. Rocket Rocket @ #279 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 7:16 am

    Good luck to everyone this morning and thanks to all helping today.

    I don’t think it is possible for Labor to do worse than 74 seats and minority government, and I think they will secure a comfortable majority, well ahead of the Coalition because of about six or so cross-benchers.

    Tonight on TV the most common narrative from Coalition commentators will be “Wait till the prepolls are counted later – they will reverse this result and Morrison will win”. I expect the first utterance of this by 730 pm – maybe earlier on Sky News!

    I’d say the Libs will be trying to overturn the result in the Stewards Room citing S44 breaches.

  24. When Bob Hawke won in 1983, GDP growth was -2.3%; yes that is a minus sign
    Unemployment was 10.0%
    Interest rates were 10%
    Inflation was 11.4%

    The stat that still gets me is when Hawke Labor came to office 3 in 10 Aussie kids were completing high school.

  25. Confessions its not surprising that this is closer than it should be. If people voted purely on rational self interest then only 10% or so of the population (the truly wealthy and privileged) would vote Liberal.

    Deeply seated emotional responses. The fear of Labor. The motivation that a lot of Liberals have that they aren’t there to give good governance, but simply to keep Labor out. Where does that come from? Clever manipulation over generations.

    The fetishisation of budget surpluses. The belief that tax cuts will grow the economy despite the fact that this idea has been debunked long ago and despite the fact that most of the best countries to live in are higher taxing than us. The lack of general understanding of the economic benefits of infrastructure, education and fairness. All of this reinforced by a tame, lazy and basically ill-informed media.

    Its no wonder that Labor struggles. The fact is that Labor has to do better. Just having a surplus isn’t going to change perceptions. I hope Bowen understands this. Labor needs to change the entire conversation to a saner more informed one where people actually realise that Labor is the party that has built this country and the Liberals are consistently wreckers. This doesn’t happen in the space of an election campaign.

    Look at the NBN. Tens of billions spent on a temporary network built on copper. It will have to be scrapped and replaced. Labor should have a policy to scrap and replace but it cannot. Why? Because most people don’t know that what the Liberals have built is temporary. They will find out soon enough, but this is just one example of where Labor has to change the game itself.

  26. Off to Merri Creek Primary to hand out for the Senate and for our near neighbours in Cooper and Wills for the morning, and to Frankston Primary for the afternoon. Looks like a cold start to the day – let’s hope it has a great finish!

  27. Good morning Dawn Patrollers on what I hope will be a momentous and defining day.

    Shorten has reason to believe he could be PM, but Morrison still has a chance, writes David Crowe.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/shorten-has-reason-to-believe-he-could-be-pm-but-morrison-still-has-a-chance-20190517-p51ol9.html
    Craig Emerson fondly recalls his time working for Bob Hawke.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/my-fondest-memory-working-for-bob-hawke-20190517-p51okg.html
    Noel Towell says that Victorian voters could hold the key to the outcome of today’s federal election with several must-win seats in the state still too close to call as the campaign drew to a close yesterday.
    https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/make-or-break-state-victoria-the-key-to-triumph-on-saturday-20190517-p51ojm.html
    Once the shock of Bob Hawke’s death passed, thoughts turned quickly to what, if any, impact it would have on the election campaign. That’s how politics is, writes Phil Coorey.
    https://www.outline.com/ZurcA4
    Paul Bongiorno with a good wrap on the campaigns.
    https://www.outline.com/U9U9yz
    The AFR reports that Labor strategists say the party is on track to win between 77 and 79 seats, giving it a small but workable majority. Morrison’s best hope is for a hung parliament.
    https://www.outline.com/kL9jmJ
    Katharine Murphy writes, “As voters head to the polls on Saturday, it’s worth noting the underlying conditions are comparable to the conditions that existed when Hawke took office in 1983. It’s comparable in the sense that there is significant work to do to get Australia where it needs to be for the next few decades.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/17/what-would-hawkie-do-why-australias-economy-cant-afford-more-denial-and-drift
    Things turned a bit nasty at Warringah yesterday.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/liberal-volunteer-attacked-at-warringah-polling-booth-20190517-p51onc.html
    Alex McKinnon writes that in the face of a serious challenge by independent candidate Zali Steggall, Tony Abbott is fighting to hold on to his place in parliament – and some of the campaign tactics have turned nasty.
    https://www.outline.com/GP7TEK
    Kirsty Needham explains how Chinese manufacturers plan to get around US tariffs as Americans pay the price
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/how-chinese-manufacturers-plan-to-get-around-us-tariffs-as-americans-pay-the-price-20190516-p51o7a.html
    Laura Tingle writes that Bob Hawke’s death has left us all to reflect on not just the death of one of our most popular PMs but where our politics seems to have gone wrong.
    https://www.outline.com/Z26WRb
    David Wroe writes that whoever forms government next week will face a dangerous and fast-changing world and must deal with the challenge of how Australia positions itself in the growing rivalry between the United States and China.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/very-uncomfortable-for-australia-the-foreign-affairs-challenges-facing-the-next-government-20190517-p51oet.html
    Nd the AFR says that no matter what the result of the election, it is likely to be no more than a pause in the strife and division that have wracked Australian politics over the past decade.
    https://www.outline.com/vuTCK9
    Adele Ferguson says that restoring trust is an urgent challenge for our next government.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/restoring-trust-is-an-urgent-challenge-for-next-government-20190517-p51oj2.html
    George Megalogenis takes issue with Labor’s election policies.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/a-campaign-conducted-on-the-basis-of-delusion-20190517-p51oeo.html
    Anne Davies tells us how Angus Taylor’s Oxford rowing mate’s company was a beneficiary of a particular $80m water deal.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/17/angus-taylors-oxford-rowing-mate-one-of-main-beneficiaries-of-80m-water-deal
    Ross Gittins reckons both sides are a bit tricky with their spending undertakings.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/both-sides-are-bit-too-tricky-when-it-comes-to-spending-20190516-p51o7h.html
    Michael Koziol reports that John Howard has backed Tony Abbott’s “completely unexceptional” statement on the death of Bob Hawke, despite widespread condemnation of the remarks including a warning from Scott Morrison that fellow Liberals shouldn’t be too “partisan”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/scott-morrison-cautions-tony-abbott-over-partisan-bob-hawke-tribute-20190517-p51obi.html
    Wendy Squires celebrates Australia’s compulsory voting system and the way it is managed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/yes-we-have-to-vote-and-it-s-a-good-thing-too-20190516-p51o4x.html
    Albo has written a tribute to Hawkie.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/bob-hawke-my-mentor-was-a-nation-builder-and-our-greatest-pm-20190517-p51oha.html
    “Seven years after Gonski, why is school funding still inequitable?”, asks Jordan Baker. There’s a bit of work here for Labor if it gets up.
    https://www.smh.com.au/education/seven-years-after-gonski-why-is-school-funding-still-inequitable-20190516-p51o34.html
    Michelle Grattan tells us how Bob Hawke was master of managing government.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-bob-hawke-was-master-of-managing-government-117326
    Mike Seccombe reports that if the Labor Party wins today’s election, it will likely need support to pass its reforms from Centre Alliance, whose senators have vowed not to back changes to franking credits.
    https://www.outline.com/D2u3cM
    Michael Pascoe writes that this might just became the election not to win.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/05/16/new-government-inherit-weak-economy/
    Kate McClymont with a smelly story involving Barnaby Joyce.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-suspicious-fire-the-suicide-and-the-shameless-pork-barrelling-20190517-p51oit.html
    Australia’s government faces questions over secret deal with the US in which Rwandans accused of killing tourists were granted humanitarian visas.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/17/how-australia-ended-up-taking-in-rwandans-accused-of-killing-tourists
    Australia’s refugee policy is akin to the legal definition of torture, something a new government will hopefully change, writes Meggan Devery.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/ending-the-coalitions-history-of-human-rights-abuse,12690
    Is the DAA back to its old tricks? After investigations here into food giants such as Nestle and Sanitarium financing the Dietitian’s Association of Australia (DAA), the peak dietitians body cancelled its sponsorships program. Maryanne Demasi reports the DAA has again compromised its independence from Big Sugar by inviting advertisers.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/dietitians-backslide-dump-corporate-sponsorships-invite-ads-instead/
    Peter FitzSimons says Rugby Australia had no choice but to tear up Folau’s contract. And he takes unerring aim at the Parrot.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/rugby-australia-had-no-choice-but-to-tear-up-folau-s-contract-20190517-p51oll.html
    Why, more than 60 years after the last nuclear test in Australia, had the British government suddenly vanished previously declassified documents about the tests from its national archives? The Campaign for Freedom of Information, a British not-for-profit organisation, described it as worrying.
    https://www.outline.com/qjZvNe
    Supply chain manager Christine Miller explains how our growing expectations for fast delivery are transforming not only the retail experience, but the industrial and logistics landscape – the backbone of a behemoth e-commerce industry.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/demand-for-fast-delivery-is-transforming-the-logistics-industry-20190516-p51o1s.html
    Centrelink does it again!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/17/centrelink-sorry-after-apparent-error-leaves-woman-with-3500-debt-and-no-income
    For Melbourne’s LGBTQIA community, the police raid above the Hares & Hyenas bookstore – and subsequent serious injury of queer party organiser Nik Dimopoulos – has triggered memories of darker times.
    https://www.outline.com/huGWRE
    Samantha Dick writes that Alabama’s decision this week to outlaw abortion has raised questions over Australia’s complex abortion laws which see some women forced to travel interstate in order to terminate pregnancies.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/05/17/australia-abortion-laws-alabama/
    Our old favourite Salm Mehajer has been slapped with a few more fraud charges.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/salim-mehajer-served-fresh-set-of-fraud-charges-20190517-p51omh.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe and the ultimate democracy sausage.

    And he takes Bob Hawke to the pearly gates.

    John Shakespeare farewells Bob Hawke.


    David Pope and the choice we need to make today.

    This is one of Pope’s that I missed yesterday.

    Alan Moir on polling day.

    David Pope and the loss of Hawke.

    From Matt Golding.






    Mark David winds up the campaigns.

    Andrew Dyson pays respect to Hawke.

    From Glen Le Lievre.


    Zanetti just can’t help himself!

    THIS is how it’s done Mr Zanetti!

    Jon Kudelka takes the piss out of the ad man.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/56f4e510bca83bf7ba95a586a7c47bed?width=1024

    From the US





  28. I can’t for the life of me work out what product the coalition are selling. Scotty and that’s it.

    I found it easier to read the Morrison transcripts in a Sir Joh (“Sergio”) accent…
    “Don’t you worry about that.”

  29. Cud

    We need a Labor victory that is strong enough to give them confidence. The Lib bullies (ScoMo is a good example) have been selling fear for so long… Shorten has played strategic caution, but a good victory should give the signal to him to come right out and say rubbish, as Hawke would have done.

  30. Late Riser, I will stay with a final tpp of 52.7 to the good guys and a seat tally of A.L.P. 90, L.N.P. 51 and greens/x bench 10. And for nath if you do retire to the vic. alps leave your xmas antlers at home.

  31. Confessions @ #287 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 7:22 am

    Grime:

    I can’t for the life of me work out what product the coalition are selling. Scotty and that’s it.

    That’s it in a nut shell.Buy me and you get Scomo.
    Reminds me of the old KTel 4″x 2″,absolutely useless for anything and stand it in the corner when not being used,the ultimate product.Comes with no warranty whatsoever.
    But it’s really cheap!

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