Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

Newspoll ends the campaign with a big sample poll that offers no surprises, with Labor maintaining its modest but decisive edge.

The Australian brings us the final Newspoll of the campaign, and it lands bang on the uniform pollster consensus in recording Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5. Last week’s Newspoll had it at 51-49, but that result involved rounding to whole numbers. On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%.

The poll has a bumper sample of 3008 – it’s not clear when the field work period began, but “2108 interviews were conducted in the 24 hours up until midday yesterday”. Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 46% and down one on disapproval to 45%; Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly, from 45-38 to 47-38.

That should be the final poll for the campaign, and hence the final addition to BludgerTrack, which has been just about carved in stone for the past week. However, the addition of the Newspoll result does cause Labor to make one gain on the seat projection, that being in Victoria, although it has only made a 0.1% difference on the national two-party preferred.

UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have state breakdowns compiled from the last two Ipsos polls, though only two-party preferred numbers are provided so I can’t make use of them in BludgerTrack. I’m not too troubled by this though, as they rather improbably have Labor more strongly placed in New South Wales, where they lead 53-47, than in Victoria, where their lead is 52-48. Elsewhere, it’s 50-50 in Queensland and with the Coalition leading 51-49 in both Western Australia (more-or-less plausibly) and South Australia (less so).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,284 comments on “Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

  1. And he takes Bob Hawke to the pearly gates.

    david rowe‏ @roweafr 15h

    i met bob in person for the first time in the early nineties ,he said “you’re a bloody devil david ..keep it up”@FinancialReview #BobHawke

  2. Federal election campaign ends as it started, with no clear sense of change


    “No clear sense of change

    Mr Hawke’s death has ended a largely graceless campaign, and one shaped by the focus on Opposition policies in the absence of all but two from a bitterly divided Coalition, and by an unrelenting campaign by a media organisation against Labor.”

    For whatever reason the site link won’t load.

  3. lizzie

    Exactly. Every seat won is another poke in the eye to the wreckers.
    I want to see the wind taken out of the Liberal’s enablers in the media and community.

  4. Cud:

    I reckon Labor was right to articulate its policies well ahead of the election, even though it’s made them a large target to attack. That alone is doing something to change the business as usual.

  5. BK

    Thanks as always.

    Off to work, then later to the MCG to see your North Adelaide’s Robbie Young make his AFL debut.

    Today is the 45th anniversary of the 1974 election that brought universal health care to Australia – the Liberals got rid of it again and then Bob Hawke brought it back to stay.

    A great day for Australia – today’s anniversary will be another.

  6. Confessions agreed. It was the right thing to do. Especially after the 2013 election which was characterised by industrial lying about there being no change.

  7. William’s assessment on Saturday AM this morning was quite conservative- WTTE that with the polls on 51/49, an ALP majority government is touch and go. It’s not what he’s saying to us! Is WB playing both sides of the street? Maybe because he’d be run out of his own town as a bedwetter if he dared to utter such sentiments here.

  8. So I went to bed before Newspoll.

    My guessing remains the same 80+ seats for Labor, more is a bonus.

    I am waiting nearby for the booths to open in hurstville, Labor and liberals

    You all are pansies for scaremongering last few days.

  9. Obviously don’t have the finer detail but my guess is that Labor were probably on 4 point lead as they have been for many, many polls. Newspoll also probably tinkering at the edges to make the polls look more competitive. Not that it matters because ” this is the poll that counts”-so beloved comment of the Right. The swing won’t be even either but I’ll be happy with a general 1.5% across the board.
    Vale Bob Hawke. Hope he’ll be laughing that classic boisterous laugh, while downing a pint wherever he is, celebrating a Labor win.

  10. Meanwhile, I BET Bob Hawke has already negotiated his way past St Peter at the pearly gates and is now in the process of convincing God {if there is a God… that Scomo winning this election is a bad idea. Go get him Bob. Cheers Mate. This one is for you.

  11. I have a hunch, based on the amount the supposedly broke Libs spent on ads this campaign, that they will have run up the credit cards on the campaign. If so, and they lose, it’s going to be a tough job to rebuild the coffers from opposition. Either way, whichever faction can raise the funds, will likely have a greater say on the policy agenda going forward.

    Beware the angry delcons. They may prove effective fundraisers.

  12. Bramston is doing a Hawke biography. He writes of their last meeting. Use “Google trick”to access.

    Bob Hawke was ready to go.

    “To be quite honest, mate, I’d be quite happy not to wake up tomorrow morning or the next,” he told me in what was his last interview a few months ago.

    He was in pain. He was tired. He was frustrated. He had lived a long life, just half a year shy of reaching his 90th birthday.

    And he hadn’t exactly treated his body like a temple over the years.

    Although brief in his responses, he was more reflective than usual. He had been thinking about his life. When asked about his parents, Clem and Ellie, or his two wives, Hazel and Blanche, or his children, he got emotional. And his eyes moistened talking about Paul Keating…………………………………..In recent years, he had mended any lingering rifts with Keating. They were Australia’s greatest political duo. They were rivals, and sometimes had contempt for each other, but there was also mutual admiration and a warmth between them. They were like brothers.

    Hawke’s eyes widened and he smiled when he told me how happy he was that he had seen Keating recently and enjoyed his company. “We had a marvellous time ­together,” Hawke said. “We did a lot of great things together. Affection is not an inappropriate word, now, for our relationship”

  13. Socrates

    Austerity delivers confidence and that confidence trickles down

    The DNA of the “Liberal” Party of today

    Read the article quoting Tony McEvoy on

  14. The Ipsos poll showing Labor on 52 in Victoria and 53 in NSW must be embarrassing for them, not to mention their 13 for the Greens nationally. I’m not sure why these foreign outfits bother.

  15. On Monday night the ABC screens a must-watch post election program, The Battle for Warringah, a Four Corners investigation into the high-profile race in the former blue-ribbon Liberal seat. Reporter Sean Nicholls and crew began filming on Sydney’s northern beaches at the end of March, documenting the struggle between incumbent Tony Abbott and independent Zali Steggall. They have filmed behind the scenes with both candidates, but the former prime minister has so far refused a sit-down interview.

    On Wednesday Nicholls was surprised to read in the Australian that Four Corners was “embedded” with the Steggall team. The claim came from the former ABC chairmain Maurice Newman, who has a weekly column in which he variously bashes the ABC for being a “campaigner for radical environmentalism and globalism” and spruiks his peculiar brand of climate denialism.

    “For some time now, the ABC’s Four Corners has embedded a journalist within independent environmentalist Zali Steggall’s cam­paign team,” Newman wrote. “Steggall is looking to topple the incumbent member for Warringah, former prime minister Tony Abbott, who, for almost 25 years, has held the once safe Liberal seat. The national broadcaster is risking time and money to capture that surreal moment when Abbott may be out of the parliament.”

    Nicholls called Newman and politely told him he was wrong, eliciting an immediate apology from the arch conservative.

    Four Corners executive producer Sally Neighbour corrected the record on Twitter, saying Nicholls was not “embedded” with Steggall and the program had filmed with both candidates.

    Despite the Newman apology, the Australian has not corrected the article.

  16. Compare Hawke and Keating with Howard and Costello

    Costello would not give Howard the time of day for some 10 years of the eleven years – and still have no relationship

  17. Pithicus – i wasn’t seriously suggesting the boss was wRONg (as if…) He was just being circumspect and careful while on national radio I imagine. On the last Party Room podcast Katharine Murphy and Malcolm Farr were put on the spot and asked to predict the final result and the margin. They both came as over as if they were really thrown off balance by the question. KM flatly claimed that she had no idea (which i find very hard to believe) and refused to answer and MF hummed and hahhed for quite a while before saying he thought Labor would get over the line by a small margin, but that really he had no confidence either way.

  18. Hawke was an agnostic, so probably wouldn’t have much time for heaven/god references after his death.

    As an agnostic, I don’t think he’d care either way -he’s heading for a higher place.

  19. nath ! nath ! nath ! nath !

    I have discovered why Shorten is so confident of a win, you will be overjoyed to discover why. On this day in 1804 Napoleon was proclaimed Emperor. 😀 😀 😀

  20. The arrogance of Barnaby.

    Only five days before the fire Mr Joyce was grilled on the ABC’s Insiders about the move saying “it makes abundant sense” because the University of New England could team up with the APVMA due to their shared expertise. However, as the university was to point out, its expertise was in agriculture whereas the APVMA’s was chemical.

    As the regulatory body with oversight for the use of chemicals in agriculture and animals, the APVMA didn’t deal with farmers, they told Mr Joyce, they dealt with the companies who manufactured and marketed chemicals and those companies were not in Armidale.

    This point had already been made in a $270,000 Ernst & Young report which analysed the cost/benefit of the move. The report, which parliament later heard gave a “damning assessment of the relocation,” estimated that the cost of the move would be more than $23 million.

    Asked on Insiders whether the cost-benefit report was going to be made public, Mr Joyce replied that it wasn’t going to be released “because a decision [to re-locate the APVMA] has already been made by the Australian people.”

    I suppose there’s not a chance in hell that Barnaby will lose his seat?

  21. Deakin 3rd place 2001 @ #319 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 7:52 am

    I have a hunch, based on the amount the supposedly broke Libs spent on ads this campaign, that they will have run up the credit cards on the campaign. If so, and they lose, it’s going to be a tough job to rebuild the coffers from opposition. Either way, whichever faction can raise the funds, will likely have a greater say on the policy agenda going forward.

    Beware the angry delcons. They may prove effective fundraisers.

    They could always ask Mal for a donation…

  22. Off to work, then later to the MCG to see your North Adelaide’s Robbie Young make his AFL debut.
    He’s quite a goer. And he doesn’t mind a bit of aggro!

  23. Now that election day is here, I’m a bit sorry that I voted early. I’ll be doing HTVs for the Greens this morning. There are no HOR Green prospects in my electorate but hopefully it will get the Senate vote up. Looking forward to catching up with the friendly Labor crew that I see at the booth every election.

  24. lizzie:

    Will definitely watch that 4Corners. I’m guessing if Abbott does win re-election this will be his last term. Lib members won’t want to risk losing the seat to an independent because Abbott is on the nose, and he will lose preselection if he intends to run again in 2022.

  25. Good luck to all those candidates seeking to rid us of the conservative nutters. We as a nation deserve better.
    I hope this electorate ( Lindsay ) doesn’t do what the polls are saying and goes to the dark side. Will be a sad day if the ALP win and they lose this seat.
    Whatever the result I’m not going to hate on my fellow citizens for the decision they make. That’s democracy.
    I’m off to do my bit to add a 1 to the ALP vote. Take care people. Be kind today, even to those who don’t vote for you.

  26. Max
    I totally get it
    Running a pseph site and getting it badly wrong is always possible.
    elections can throw up some wacky resullts.

  27. Confessions

    Kieran Gilbert just called Abbott as being gorn and for him to win in the ‘miracle’ territory. Climate change attitudes, fewer Boomers and more Millennials dooming him.

  28. Senator Doug Cameron

    Expect a Murdoch tantrum to be reflected on the front page of every @newscorpaus rag tomorrow morning. Ignore the Yank and his pathetic political attacks on @AustralianLabor and let’s change Australia for the better!

    Gotta love him!

  29. Here at Willoughby Girls HS (North Sydney)

    Queues much longer than state and number of people doing HTVs minimal.

    5 libs, one alp and one Cory

  30. Shane Easson@shane_easson
    6m6 minutes ago
    The AEC will determine State Divisional entitlements 12 months after the first meeting of the HofR following this election. Victoria is likely to gain an additional Division, probably McEwen divided in two ( with adjustments). That’s the seat of Hawke.

  31. Good morning fellow PBers

    A crisp, clear and freezing morning here in Gisborne.

    It’s tine as the great man once said.

    Bill has the vision

    Bill has the team

    Bill’s got the policies


    The zingers!

    When will Antony call it this evening?

    Actually I’d like a book of Bill’s zingers published.

  32. In 2013 ALP deserved to lose, but got caned with Tony Abbott at the helm winning 90 seats.

    Just to calibrate, this government deserve so much more to lose and Shorten whilst unloved is no Tony Abbott and the ALP might not get 80 seats?

    This entrenched advantage the Coalition have is the next frontier.

    Would be no sense of justice if this clownshow of a Coalition govt can keep within 15 seats of Labor.

    85 feels a morally appropriate min to me, but gawd they have to get 80 puhleaze…

  33. Eddy Jokovich @EddyJokovich
    47m47 minutes ago

    So many mainstream journalists writing about how the electorate is so disillusioned with the election and politics, totally unaware they’ve been the biggest contributor to this disillusionment.

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