Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

Newspoll ends the campaign with a big sample poll that offers no surprises, with Labor maintaining its modest but decisive edge.

The Australian brings us the final Newspoll of the campaign, and it lands bang on the uniform pollster consensus in recording Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5. Last week’s Newspoll had it at 51-49, but that result involved rounding to whole numbers. On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%.

The poll has a bumper sample of 3008 – it’s not clear when the field work period began, but “2108 interviews were conducted in the 24 hours up until midday yesterday”. Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 46% and down one on disapproval to 45%; Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly, from 45-38 to 47-38.

That should be the final poll for the campaign, and hence the final addition to BludgerTrack, which has been just about carved in stone for the past week. However, the addition of the Newspoll result does cause Labor to make one gain on the seat projection, that being in Victoria, although it has only made a 0.1% difference on the national two-party preferred.

UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have state breakdowns compiled from the last two Ipsos polls, though only two-party preferred numbers are provided so I can’t make use of them in BludgerTrack. I’m not too troubled by this though, as they rather improbably have Labor more strongly placed in New South Wales, where they lead 53-47, than in Victoria, where their lead is 52-48. Elsewhere, it’s 50-50 in Queensland and with the Coalition leading 51-49 in both Western Australia (more-or-less plausibly) and South Australia (less so).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,283 comments on “Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. As I am housebound today, I’d like to thank all the posters who are out in the world and can report on their sense of what is happening. 🙂

  3. Subcontractors WA has lodged a complaint to Consumer Protection against its former chairwoman Louise Stewart, alleging she continued to act on behalf of the association following her resignation.

    In the document, seen by The West Australian, the Subcontractors WA committee seeks external and official intervention for Ms Stewart to hand over financial documents, bank accounts, email access and cease acting on behalf of Subcontractors WA.

    Ms Stewart is running as an independent candidate for the seat of Curtin in tomorrow’s Federal election.

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-election-2019/subcontractors-wa-lodges-consumer-protection-complaint-against-independent-curtin-candidate-louise-stewart-ng-b881202402z

  5. Sgh1969

    There are some I definitely wouldn’t miss. The misogynist Macdonald and that fat ex-policeman with multiple properties.

  6. Back from voting. Nailed my democracy sausage after the disappointment of last time (they had run out).

    Had to do so without a HTV though. Only the Libs were on deck for the early-birds.

  10. Fess

    Slowly but I hope surely. 🙂
    I can walk up the stairs to my bedroom without pausing twice on the way. That has to be a plus!!

  11. Zoidlord,
    “He’ll do you up a treat, mate.”

    Sen. Cameron’s take down of the IPA “fellows”/commentators in Estimates was brilliant.
    (I’m still looking for the magic words to find it.)

  16. Morning bludgers

    So Labor strategists are saying between 77 to 79 seats. Ties in with my 77 seats.

    I hope it is at least 80 seats. But any win ultimately will do. Morrison and co are atrocious.

  21. Cheryl Kernot @cheryl_kernot
    25m25 minutes ago

    If successful I really wish @billshortenmp would begin his speech tonight with “How good is this?” #AusVotes2019

  22. Jaeger

    Agree. The arrogant ‘fellows’ had a brutal wake up call to reality. It’s a long way from university politics gentlemen.

    A brilliant take down of the IPA.

    Dougie’s facial expressions ranged from WTF to Surely you cannot be serious.

  28. The Guardian editorial

    Ministers hastily elevated to plug gaps caused by the rush of resignations after Malcolm Turnbull’s demise have shown scant command of their brief, and little interest in talking about the important portfolios they manage. And yet, to shut down an uncomfortable line of questioning in a campaign debate, Mr Morrison has promised that one of those most conspicuously “missing in action” – the environment minister, Melissa Price – will stay in the role if the Coalition is re-elected. In some important portfolios he did not appoint new ministers before the election was called, meaning announcements continue to be made in the name of ministers who are not even contesting.

    The task of government can never be a one-person undertaking, and voters have ample evidence to doubt the Coalition has a full team ready for the job.
    …
    We have always considered Guardian Australia readers capable of making their own voting decisions, but in 2019 we urge readers to heed the fact that Labor is the only party with a credible climate policy and a chance of forming government after Saturday.

    For those with more a progressive leaning and a conviction Australia should work faster to reduce emissions, the Greens’ climate policy is more ambitious than Labor’s and its tax and spending policies more redistributive. Depending on the election outcome in the Senate, the Greens could work to toughen Labor’s stance.
    …
    We believe the Coalition’s indefensible attitude to climate change, its wafer-thin policy offering and the fact that it has not resolved the internal divisions that blighted its term in office mean it has forfeited the right to voters’ trust.

    However you choose to exercise your democratic decision-making on Saturday, please consider your candidate’s position on climate and the rapidly shrinking timeframe for action. We have endured mindless scare campaigns and half-baked policy for too many decades. We don’t have three more years to waste.

  29. So if the ALP get over the line in regards to Legislative programs etc should Bill and the team hit the ground hard and focus on the budget and finances and get as much done by the end of the year

    Or focus on a few big ticket items to get some runs on the board

    Apart from the budget would people like to see a massive clean out of department heads starting with the ABC?

    What about some more enquires such as the NDIS and NBN?

  30. So, I just voted with my Mum.

    Line was longer than expected.

    In the House I voted 1 Labor, 2 Greens, etc.

    In the Senate I voted for a bunch a left-wing micros, then ALP and Greens.

    Mum voted 1 Greens in both the House and Senate. When I asked her why, she said she didn’t care.

    Some might find that interesting. 😉

  32. Laura Tingle’s column today.

    There has not been an election in living memory where a change of government has occurred in circumstances where the political parties were expected to both win and lose seats, nor where preferences and independents could make such a difference to the outcome.

    If all the strategists were really honest, they would quietly admit there has never been an election where they have known less about what was going on in voters’ minds than this one.

    The splintering of modern media platforms might give parties the capacity to target micro audiences, but it also blinds them to what people are actually seeing and thinking, particularly young people.

    More than 700,000 new voters have joined the electoral roll since 2016, partially as a result of the marriage equality plebiscite.

    A breakdown shows that in some of the most marginal, and/or most contested seats in the country, there are around 1000 new voters aged 18-24 on the rolls, sometimes more than the margin with which seats were won or lost.

    How will they vote? Have the parties been talking to them about issues that matter to them like climate change?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-18/federal-election-campaign-overshadowed-by-bob-hawke-deathlegacy/11116026

  33. Just went up to my local polling booth in Petrie. Hardly anyone voting, in fact there was only one other voter there. No Greens, ON or UAP people handing out HTVs. Are you sure there is an election on today.

  35. Wrong answer Scotty, never concede…

    NEW THIS MORNING | Scott Morrison tells @TheTodayShow he will stay on as leader of the Liberal party if they lose the election. @9NewsAUS #AusVotes19  #auspol 

  37. Sound advice for anyone yet to vote.

    Peter BrentVerified account@mumbletwits
    2m2 minutes ago
    Remember people, in the *Senate*, rather than put the parties and candidates you hate last, just leave a blank square next to them. Don’t give them a number. This applies above and below the line.

  39. Had a chuckle over woman interviewed (ABC24) this morning in Dickson, her main concern being hospitals. Asked who she’d be voting for, she said the Libs. Perhaps she wants less rather than more(?).

    More generally, with the death of Bob Hawke, the blanket coverage of his achievements (and those of PJK) can only be a plus, as will the number of young voters who’ve registered before and post the plebiscite.

  40. ABC News
    ‏@abcnews
    4m4 minutes ago

    Liberal Senator @Birmo says voters can be assured of a united Coalition Government because Scott Morrison changed the Liberal Party rules so a sitting prime minister can’t easily be dumped by the party room

    After the RWNJ truculence for over three years, that’s a joke!

  41. But only dont number them if you hate them all equally. If you dislike one and loathe another, number the dislike one to have the best chance of the loathed being defeated.

  42. Laura Jayes on Sky just said that of the people that pre-polled 50% were over 55. No wonder they had a slight edge in the ‘pre poll’ poll numbers.

  43. The booth I voted at is a new venue and I noticed there were a number of changed venues in Petrie this election. Wonder how that will affect Antony’s booth matching programs.

  44. With the record pre-polls has there been any change to the way they are counted? Ie- some or all may be counted on the night?

    Apologies for my ignorance, I was lucky enough to be overseas almost the entirety of the election campaign (can highly recommend doing it!), and even before the campaign had gone out of my way to avoid politics this year.

  45. @Max

    Pre-polls cast in the electorate will be counted tonight. They’ll hit in a flurry maybe 10-11pm.

    Out of electorate pre-polls will take longer.

  46. “Laura Jayes on Sky just said that of the people that pre-polled 50% were over 55. No wonder they had a slight edge in the ‘pre poll’ poll numbers.”

    That doesn’t surprise me.
    Was my assumption .

  49. Ketan Joshi
    ‏ 1m1 minute ago

    Family Photo: (l to r) @Greghuntmp, @KellyODwyer, @Cpyne, @PeterDutton_MP, @JoshFrydenberg (front).

    Every smile here is joy resulting from increased harm to all of us as carbon regulation is repealed.

    We pay for these smiles

  50. Alex Turnbull robo-calls thousands in Warringah, urging vote against Liberals

    By Sally Rawsthorne

    Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s son Alex has made a robo-call to households in Warringah on the eve of the election, urging them not to vote for Tony Abbott.

    Mr Turnbull recorded a call that went to 1,000 homes in the hotly-contested seat suggesting the incumbent Member for Warringah was responsible for the Liberal Party’s chaos in Canberra and inaction on climate change.

    “I’m calling to let you know that this election you have a choice,” says the call obtained by Nine News.

    “You can vote for Peter Dutton’s ally Tony Abbott, who drove the coup that removed Malcolm and has been a driver of the non-stop instability of the party.

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