Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

Newspoll ends the campaign with a big sample poll that offers no surprises, with Labor maintaining its modest but decisive edge.

The Australian brings us the final Newspoll of the campaign, and it lands bang on the uniform pollster consensus in recording Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5. Last week’s Newspoll had it at 51-49, but that result involved rounding to whole numbers. On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%.

The poll has a bumper sample of 3008 – it’s not clear when the field work period began, but “2108 interviews were conducted in the 24 hours up until midday yesterday”. Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 46% and down one on disapproval to 45%; Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly, from 45-38 to 47-38.

That should be the final poll for the campaign, and hence the final addition to BludgerTrack, which has been just about carved in stone for the past week. However, the addition of the Newspoll result does cause Labor to make one gain on the seat projection, that being in Victoria, although it has only made a 0.1% difference on the national two-party preferred.

UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have state breakdowns compiled from the last two Ipsos polls, though only two-party preferred numbers are provided so I can’t make use of them in BludgerTrack. I’m not too troubled by this though, as they rather improbably have Labor more strongly placed in New South Wales, where they lead 53-47, than in Victoria, where their lead is 52-48. Elsewhere, it’s 50-50 in Queensland and with the Coalition leading 51-49 in both Western Australia (more-or-less plausibly) and South Australia (less so).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,283 comments on “Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. If you’re record is so good, why did you change leaders?

    After an admirably brief pause, Birmingham repeats that neither he nor Scott Morrison voted for that change. I am not sure that answers the question.

    Morrison, he says, has “the common touch.” That’s a particularly pointed reference in the wake of 24-hours of tributes to Bob Hawke, most of which praised his man-of-the-people skills.

    The Libs have been desperate to makeover themselves as having the skills and likeability of Hawke.
    Hint: it’s not working. 🙂

  2. Just back from voting in Glebe (Sydney), busy already. Labor + Greens handing out HTVs. Didn’t see the Liberal. There where 2 main entry points so they may have been on the other. In any case you’d have thought they could muster 2 helpers.

  3. I’m not quite sure I believe the IPSOS state breakdowns but the keep the faintest glimmer of hope alive for the coalition (extremely extremely faint mind you). Otherwise there is always the hope the polls are wrong.

  4. I’m sticking with my forecast of 82 seats. I expect that Labor will finish up at 51.5 per cent 2PP.

    As many have on PB have pointed out, it should be closer to 90 seats and 54 per cent.

    H.L. Mencken had it right:

    “No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.”

    I understand he based this partly on the influence of the tabloid press of his day. He was 100 years ahead of his time, forecasting the influence of the Murdoch “press” on the Australian polity.

  5. According to the New Daily:
    “In Newspoll, Labor has increased its lead on a two-party-preferred basis to 51.5 per cent to the Liberals’ 49.5 per cent. The result represents a 0.5 per cent lift for Labor.”
    When i did arithmatic at school 51.5+49.5 added to 101 – looks like Scott is much closer to 50% than i thought.

  6. Possum Comitatus

    @Pollytics
    3m3 minutes ago

    There’s a plane flying around Dickson towing a “Ditch Dutton” banner

  7. From a poet friend of mine.
    ______

    Hawke

    Eternity will not silence his echoes

    Soar
    labour heart
    labour head
    labour soul

    As that sniping little cock in budgie smugglers fades away

  8. The QuadBike voted this morning, poetically…

    ‘I laid it out in the narrow voting booth, it’s wings reaching high on either partition; which candidates would I assign to preside in this Senate edition? The field was broad but alas the options poor; tentatively I scratched, a democratic chore.’

  9. I’m impressed at the certainty of some here given we have minimal sensible polling information and a lot of unknowns. The only s reasonable time to start getting excited is when we start getting a real idea of the swing later tonight.

  10. Have decided to stick with my 91+ ALP seat tally.
    Call me delusional, optimistic or fantasising, but it feels good, so who cares – I know an ALP win is on the breeze and it smells really good.

  11. Neil Pharaoh @Neilpharaoh
    2h2 hours ago

    More photos from #Deakin where the desperate, racist, sexist Liberal Party trolls have carried out this across the electorate. #auspol @theage @abcnews – don’t let them win.

  12. Morning Bludgers. Dawn breaks brightly over here in the West with change on the breeze. Perhaps we’ll get the government we were promised in 2007 but never got.

    Many thanks William for this space and all the hours you must put in. Good luck with the commentary tonight. I hope all bludgers can chip in and donate according to their means.

    Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol. It has been the start of my day for a while now. Boerwar – please thank Bluey for his tremendous efforts. Great reading! Thanks all for the entertainment.

    Late Riser – Final predictions from me: no need to change my earlier call on the night TPP 53.5 to ALP and 52.9 after final counting. 85 seats.
    2 smokies for me:
    1. 4 seats to ALP in WA plus Canning swapping on the night but going back to Libs on late counting and becoming marginal.
    2. Spontaneous outbreak of peace between the ALP and Greens! Greens supporters realising that to get progressive governments someone needs to convince middle Australia and ALP supporters realising that its good to have principled left flank and its even better if its outside the party!

    Enjoy the day everyone!

  13. booleanbach @ #407 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 9:16 am

    According to the New Daily:
    “In Newspoll, Labor has increased its lead on a two-party-preferred basis to 51.5 per cent to the Liberals’ 49.5 per cent. The result represents a 0.5 per cent lift for Labor.”
    When i did arithmatic at school 51.5+49.5 added to 101 – looks like Scott is much closer to 50% than i thought.

    See William’s notes above (or below) —

    The Australian brings us the final Newspoll of the campaign, and it lands bang on the uniform pollster consensus in recording Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5. Last week’s Newspoll had it at 51-49, but that result involved rounding to whole numbers. On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%.

    ☕ ☮

  14. Sportsbet now:
    Labor in from 1.14 to 1.10 vs Coalition out from 5.75 to 7.00

    Betfair now:
    Labor 1.12 vs Coalition 8.80

    HOW GOOD IS THAT!! 😀 😀

  15. Bellwether says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 8:36 am
    Labor now on $1.10 over at Sportsbet. The planets are aligning.

    Ladbrokes
    Labor $1.10
    Libs $7.00

    The shortest Labor has been at any time and the longest the Libs have been, (with Ladbrokes).

  16. Michael rowland:

    FINAL early voting figures: 4.76 million pre-polls (700k yesterday!). This compares to 3.2 million in 2016. Together with the (at least) 1.4 million postal vote applications, this means 37% of voters have already made their decisions. #ausvotes 

  17. sprocket_ @ #411 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 9:18 am

    The QuadBike voted this morning, poetically…

    ‘I laid it out in the narrow voting booth, it’s wings reaching high on either partition; which candidates would I assign to preside in this Senate edition? The field was broad but alas the options poor; tentatively I scratched, a democratic chore.’

    Pity he hasn’t mastered the apostrophe though.

  18. Jaeger says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 4:05 am
    51.5

    Ha! Just read this post from Jaeger – classic. Post of the campaign for me!

    The “Schwing!” is on (Might be a generational (get X) thing though).

  19. Yes Quadvlieg has high literary aspirations. One might so humbly venture that they soar too majestically high ‘pon gilded wings of turgid wankery.

  20. I turned on ABC and had to turn off again, as the presenters are so insistent on giving equal time and being ‘fair’. 😮

  21. Oliver Yates @_Oliver_Yates
    2h2 hours ago

    . @JoshFrydenberg and the Liberals have been disgusting over the last few months. Bullying and standing over voters at pre-poll, reams of paid postage, squillions on billboards, mass plastic on polling places, paid security guards and supporters. What are you compensating for?

  22. Thinking about Medibank and Medicare – I am hopeful that the next Labor Government will have a long term (after the shorter last one). In the same way that 13 years of Hawke and Keating were able to restore and embed things such as universal health care started in the shorter Whitlam government .

  23. Barry Cassidy’s comments on the Party Room, based on his supposed inside sources:
    – Coalition best case scenario based on their internal tracking, and including picking up seats (there are up to 6 they could pick up) is 71
    – ALP worst case scenario also based on internal tracking is 77
    – Beyond the 77, there are another 14 seats in the range up to 1.5% that the ALP could pick up
    – Coalition tracking suggests Victoria has improved for them (but the best case scenario above already takes that into account).
    – in Victoria the ALP is getting big swings in seats such as Higgins, Deakin and Flinders but not quite getting over the line. On the other hand it is not getting big swings in marginal seats such as Corangamite and Latrobe and the Coalition might hold on there – particularly in Corangamite
    – Abbott likely to be gone in Warringah
    – Dutton likely to be gone in Dickson

  24. D&M

    I wonder if this is why we mourn Bob Hawke so much. As well as the man, it is his vision for a fairer Australia, and his respect of democracy that we miss.

    Interesting you say this and your thoughts on Weimar. I was born in Stuttgart and emigrated as a 2 year old. Strong family connections still. As a young adult in the 80’s I thought Hawke and the generally improving life in Oz was just the way things are and would continue. We left for adventure in ’93, returning with young adult children in ’12. Australia was meaner, angrier, ‘tighter’, and confused. This past Thursday night was epiphanous. (Is that a word?) I cried. I was more than a bit surprised at that. Your comments add some perspective. Thank you.

  25. Off to vote now and just wanted to say congratulations in advance. May keep a low profile tonight and leave you all to enjoy your victory.

  26. Re Zoidlord @9:25AM.
    Some back of the envelope calculations:

    – Number of registered Australian voters = 15.8 million
    – Expected Voter turnout 92% (average of 2013 & 2016, the latter the lowest since the 1920s)
    – Expected number of votes cast = 14.5 million
    – Postal vote applications ‘at least’ 1.4 million, 9.6% of likely total vote, assumed to skew 6% to Coalition.
    – Not all postal vote applications will result in a vote, but let’s say 9% of the final total vote will be postal.

    I would reduce the Labor 2PP at the end of tonight’s counting by 9% of 6% = 0.5 to 0.6% to estimate the final 2PP for Labor.

  27. I’m predicting the pollsters got the primaries roughly right but the preferences wrong. Greens and Palmer will flow better to labor. 52.0 to labor.

    Predicting the greens will be a bit ahead of BludgerTrack, as the pollsters are using last election to weight their data ignoring the higher youth enrolment. I’ll predict exactly on their last election primary. However, the ‘othees’ Votes will flow to greens in surprisingly high numbers and therefore they will improve on last year in counts where they reach the crunch point of counting. Ie once animal justice, Palmer etc have been distributed

    Final seats in the 79-81 range for labor. 2-3 for the greens.

    Both Dutton and abbot lose their seats.

    Frydenberg is opposition leader if he holds off the greens.

    Scomo remains Leader if Frydenberg goes

  28. The anti-Labor poster defacers in Deakin – nothing they hate more than a non-white Australian woman. Despicable.

    Really hope Shireen Morris gets up and that we have seen the end of Michael Sukkar.

  29. PvO said it best – needs to be a huge Labor majority or a minority Lib result but we’ll most likely get a 5-10 seat Shorten majority.

    Also why does everyone assume that it is always the other side defacing billboards? Haven’t you considered that candidates/MPs would do that to their own to garner sympathy votes….

    Hoping for Hinch to get over the line in Victoria…

  30. lizzie

    At home you take the role of the ‘Chorus’ in Ancient Greek plays.

    Relaying information between the various actors coming and going from the stage, all the while dispensing wisdom with sage comments. And generally commenting on the triumph of those seeking to better the world.

  31. I suspect we may not know anything definite tonight. Those 4 million plus pre-polls average out to about 28,000 per seat.

    Obviously there will be variations but it’s hard to see how AEC staff can get them all counted this evening, especially when you consider that the average polling place only has about a tenth of that number to deal with.

    No doubt they will have arrangements in place, but with everything else the Divisional staff have to do on polling night it is still going to be a massive job for them.

  32. Laura Tingles observations are spot on.
    It has been a weird election campaign to say the least.
    Voting in the Senate was a difficult one for me.
    Apart from team Labor and the Greens, it was a shit show.

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