The Australian brings us the final Newspoll of the campaign, and it lands bang on the uniform pollster consensus in recording Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5. Last week’s Newspoll had it at 51-49, but that result involved rounding to whole numbers. On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%.
The poll has a bumper sample of 3008 – it’s not clear when the field work period began, but “2108 interviews were conducted in the 24 hours up until midday yesterday”. Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 46% and down one on disapproval to 45%; Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly, from 45-38 to 47-38.
That should be the final poll for the campaign, and hence the final addition to BludgerTrack, which has been just about carved in stone for the past week. However, the addition of the Newspoll result does cause Labor to make one gain on the seat projection, that being in Victoria, although it has only made a 0.1% difference on the national two-party preferred.
UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have state breakdowns compiled from the last two Ipsos polls, though only two-party preferred numbers are provided so I can’t make use of them in BludgerTrack. I’m not too troubled by this though, as they rather improbably have Labor more strongly placed in New South Wales, where they lead 53-47, than in Victoria, where their lead is 52-48. Elsewhere, it’s 50-50 in Queensland and with the Coalition leading 51-49 in both Western Australia (more-or-less plausibly) and South Australia (less so).
Upnorth @ #725 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 12:17 pm
Put it this way, Upnorth, I was minding someone’s Pharoah Hound and trying my best to keep it away from the Democracy Sausage stand and someone came up to me, tapped me on the back and asked for a Labor HTV!
In our upmarket,well-healed area that went 54-46 to the Fiberals last time, I have been run off my feet handing out Labor HTVs. I have had people ONLY taking Labor HTVs. I have had people coming out after voting coming up to me and wishing us all the best and saying, ‘fingers crossed that you win’. I have seen young people only taking Labor and Greens HTVs. I even had a lady handing out HTVs for the Liberals saying it would probably be best if we had a State Coalition government and a federal Labor government. I can barely believe my eyes and ears. But there you go. 🙂
Bill keeping a lid on it!
There is only one reason why that colour is what it is. Dirty Rotten Scoundrels.
The only thing that could save them is a prominent authorisation.
I’d be wary of buying into any narrative until we see the actual election result. There’s a lot of guesswork going around, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the result is uncertain, it just means the people who are guessing are uncertain.
Bilko says:
Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 12:10 pm
What a week they say disasters come in threes first my pash rash Doris Day dies, second Hawkie passes on and now Grumpy cat as well, folks lets do it for Bob and confine this mob to the trash can.
True, but…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDb8MZGQlnU
GG,
Id say Bill is a master at damning with faint praise.
@ C@t – thank you, I trust your “waters” more than just about any other
Surely copying the distinctive AEC colour is also mid,leading. Surely?
I couldn’t see the message in their photo (overcast, so not skywriting.)
Possum’s onto it; “Don’t want sky high health costs?” and “Ditch Dutton”:
https://twitter.com/Pollytics/status/1129551133934927873
C@t
You sound very upbeat and you deserve it. 🙂
Dan Gulberry says:
Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 12:21 pm
Boerwar @ #616 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 9:30 am
The best posting for Bishop, IMO, would be Beijing.
Given her love of fashion, I think she’d prefer France.
—————————–
Do we have an embassy in Antarctica?
Wayne @ #706 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 12:06 pm
lizzie @ #756 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 12:38 pm
Just the facts ma’am. 🙂
On the AEC thing, looks like an application can be made to the federal court today, so it appears action could be taken.
I wonder if the ALP will think it’s worth their while?
And with the Dickson dodgy HTV cards one could say the Liberals are fans of AC/DC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whQQpwwvSh4
I wonder if they all voted pre-poll because already made up their minds?
poroti @ #332 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 8:04 am
poroti
Gawd, I love that comment. Thanks. It’s lightened the waiting.
I’m like a cat on a hot tin roof today with so many jobs on the go and I just can’t focus on any one thing. Might be a good day to forget the lot and just watch the footy.
I am amused by people who think Annabelle Crabbe’s comments about Morrison’s campaign are wrong. I read it as he is a great salesman who has done a good sales job. That many, including me, think it’s a shit product doesn’t change his salesmanship.
Last night we got robocalled by Hastie, this morning Teese.
More creativity from the Democracy Sausage Keepers.
On a break after 4 hours on the poll booth. Plenty of support for both ALP and Greens. I think the swing is on.
I hope so. This stuff stinks.
At the end of an election day I would like to say – politics was the winner.
Lunchbreak from a booth. Vibe good but am in safe aLP seat.
Commies and Greens good company on the day. 🙂
Libs volunteers seem a little down and grumpy. 🙂
Actually getting quite a bit a positive feedback and encouragement from voters.
All good people. Time to finish coffee and get back to it.
Simon K
Conservatives get away with this sort of underhand stuff too often. Just like bosses who cheat on wages. They should be brought to account.
I see a couple of our other volunteers are getting the same vibe I am out in the field. 🙂
I just followed Labor’s htv cards for Senate and Reps. Like another poster I made a point of taking just the Labor one. I wore my It’s Time T shirt and got a few “good T shirt”remarks.
Plenty of Labor’s corflutes etc.
Hoping we can win this NP held seat.
Nearly 1pm – half way through guys. Thank you for the updates!
Do it for Bob guys – freedom is close at hand.
“Like another poster I made a point of taking just the Labor one.”
Had quite a few at my booth like that. 🙂
My 90 year old dad told a Lib pamphleter that Zed Seselja was a f****** c*** of a **** ******* ****.
Or WTTE.
Hawkey has him riled up I guess.
The Lib took it in his stride thankfully.
The shopkeepers love it, too, when it brings everyone into town on one day.
imacca
Thank you for your work on the front line of the election.
BH, poroti,
Napoleon was crowned Emperor on 2 December 1804. A year later to the day he crushed the Austrians and Russians at Austerlitz. When McMahon called the 1972 election for 2 December Whitlam made much of the fact that it would the anniversary of the destruction of a reactionary ramshackle coalition.
How dare ScoMo pretend he is anything like Hawke. Fake to his bootstraps.
I just received election pamphlet for the Labor candidate in the mail.
I mean, I just voted for the guy and all, but hey, commitment!
“shopkeepers love it”
I genuinely think it’s great The way we vote. It’s a bit of a party atmosphere, most people seem quite happy.
It actually seems to be getting more festive. Certainly more so than I remember it as a kid or callow youth.
The core weakness of the three leading parties is lack of macroeconomic literacy.
The two parties in Australia that are macroeconomically literate are the Australian Workers Party and the Pirate Party.
The campaigning organization GetUp! and think tank Per Capita are also macroeconomically literate.
So is The Future of Work group within think tank The Australia Institute.
lizzie @ #351 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 8:22 am
lizzie
Are you feeling improvement” I hope so. Bet the pup was pleased to see you home.
Steve Watson
Ah, but it was on this day that the Senate proclaimed him Emperor Napoleon I
Happy Election Day (and night) everyone. Beast wishes to the good guys at polling places and running for office.
I’m off to a family picnic / BBQ, back mid evening.
Assantdj
Her comments are evidence of the navel gazing of the political class and their hangers on. What do you think voters want to hear about from those in the bubble: A play by play interpretation of the political game? Or analysis of what our potential governments are going to do and the effects on Australia?
Only the vacuous class neglects the latter while thinking most people give a stuff about the former.
BH
I was busting to get home before the election. I wanted to enjoy the day at my computer with PB reactions, not just the hospital TV. Dogs very phlegmatic. Hi – when’s supper?
I’ve had a Chocolate Crackle, a Ricotta Chocolate Brownie and a Fudge Brownie. 🙂
What’s the vibe out there???
“What do you think voters want to hear about from those in the bubble: A play by play interpretation of the political game?”
Based on the discussions here….
All the activity helps. My Tasmanian friend manages a community Op Shop attached to a school. The school is a polling place, so as well as the BBQ, people will be able to browse the Op Shop. They anticipate a busy day with an almost captive market.
Getting an excellent response down at the Glenelg end of Boothby. With the Crows playing at 1:40, it could be a quietish afternoon.
If Crabb’s target audience is people like us, then that’s a pretty small audience :-P.
If political commentators want to keep their jobs, they need to find something to say about every candidate that isn’t completely negative. “Morrison worked very hard” is about all they’ve got.
“DisplayName says:
Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 1:00 pm
If Crabb’s target audience is people like us, then that’s a pretty small audience :-P.”
Well played sir!
Just heard from a couple of lefty voter friends in Warringah that they’re all voting Steggall. Anything to get rid of the rabbit.