I’m afraid in depth analysis of the result will have to wait until I’ve slept for just about the first time in 48 hours. I’ll just observe that that BludgerTrack thing on the sidebar isn’t looking too flash right now, to which the best defence I can offer is that aggregators gonna aggregate. Basically every poll at the end of the campaign showed Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5, and so therefore did BludgerTrack – whereas it looks like the final result will end up being more like the other way around. The much maligned seat polling actually wound up looking better than the national ones, though it was all too tempting at the time to relate their pecularities to a past record of leaning in favour of the Coalition. However, even the seat polls likely overstated Labor’s position, though the number crunching required to measure how much by will have to wait for later.
Probably the sharpest piece of polling analysis to emerge before the event was provided by Mark the Ballot, who offered a prescient look at the all too obvious fact that the polling industry was guilty of herding – and, in this case, it was herding to the wrong place. In this the result carries echoes of the 2015 election in Britain, when polling spoke in one voice of an even money bet between the Conservatives and Labour, when the latter’s vote share on the day proved to be fully 6% higher. This resulted in a period of soul-searching in the British polling industry that will hopefully be reflected in Australia, where pollsters are far too secretive about their methods and provide none of the breakdowns and weighting information that are standard for the more respected pollsters internationally. More on that at a later time.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 1:44 pm
….
Don’t you mean the Queensland CFMMEU campaigned against Labor ..?
Yes them too. The Greens; clive, the CFMMEU and the Liberals, all off the same song book. They won.
When Albo becomes leader I will become leader of the ALP partisans on PB. I will have the moral authority, closer to the leader and to HQ. You know it’s right.
Greens leader Richard Di Natale said
“What it does show is that the era of opinion polls I think is over. They can’t be trusted,” he said.
You know, I’ve been pretty dismissive of Albanese’s performance skills, but he’s actually doing very well here. Colour me impressed.
While I am not his biggest fan (he’s a bit too bland and conservative for me), the next Labor leader should take a leaf out of Peter Malinauskas’s book and do a listening tour of the country. While I know that’s a bit more of a logistical ask than one of the state, as in Peter M’s case. I think it would be a good idea for Labor to open its ear up on what people’s concerns are – as well as develop retail connection.
I have tried to logically review the contenders for Labor leadership and came up with this.
What do you reckon?
Labor leadership?? Me well ok with either Tanya or Albo. KK…not her time at the moment.
Very disappointed with the outcome yesterday after being optimistic for the last 12 months. So why did people reward a government that was split and has future tax policies that are clearly not in a he best interests of the majority? Fear.
People are frightened that their job, if they have one, is not secure. Their casual hours will be cut even further. The value of their homes are falling and that they will continue to fall. Their cost of living is rising against stagnant wages and their is no prospect of this changing- at least in the short term.
When you are already fearful the prospect of change is just another thing to fear. So like the deer caught in the headlights, the electorate froze. Clinging to the hope that no change is safer course.
So nath if the members vote and the caucus vote is the same, will you back the result?
I think one of the problems has been with people – like me, I’m the first to admit – reading the local “vibe” and assuming that translates across the whole country in some way, shape or form.
Very clearly it doesn’t.
But QLD results aside, there was definitely something very odd happening, even down here in SA, where things don’t look too bad at a quick glance.
On my booth in Spence (very safe ALP, held by Nick Champion) there were some astounding preference results:
* ALP got only 67% of Green preferences
* Palmer votes split 65/35 to the Libs
* The Animal Justice Party split 53/47 to the Libs! I mean, WTF?
* The Independent knockabout tradie bloke who looked like a Liberal stooge, broke 55% to Labor
* Informal came 4th
* There were surprisingly only 2 ballot papers with penises drawn on them. One was formal.
* one vote had “RIP Hawkie” written on it … but no vote. Thanks, mate.
Without a doubt the oddest election I have been part of in 40+ years.
KK couldn’t be PM. Impure thoughts would just explode in number.
frednk @ #801 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 1:47 pm
Except that the Greens campaigned on clean energy job security, the others not so much.
BK:
You forgot the column for “Isn’t intimately connected in the public mind with one of the most despised Labor governments in living memory.”
frednk
says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 1:50 pm
So nath if the members vote and the caucus vote is the same, will you back the result?
__________________________
If Albo become leader he will drive a giant Infrastructure train right into the Lodge. And I will be his chief advisor. (online).
Of the seven undecided, the Coalition leads in three and the ALP in four. If the seats fall that way then the Coalition will be on 76 seats.
How confident are we that the person leading in the seats in doubt will win?
Malcolm Farr’s take on the election:
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/one-word-that-sums-up-labors-election-disaster-in-queensland/news-story/79f0adfb76eea5a0c0210d038f66b2ca
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 1:51 pm
….
Except that the Greens campaigned on clean energy job security, the others not so much.
And they got none of it, a liberal government is their reward.
Albo: single mum, disability pension, housing commission. It begins.
“Without a doubt the oddest election I have been part of in 40+ years.”
Which is why i am NOT going to bag the poll aggregators like Mr Bowe, KB or whoever on this result. REally, i have not processed the degree of “oddness” that went into this election. 🙁
I have considered the option of stopping my frugal use of electricity, my urge to reuses and recycle, buying carbon credits on flights a carhire, my preservation of native bushland. Bring on the carnage.
But I wont.
See what you think of this.
FalconWA @ #808 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 1:50 pm
Agree with this. Jonathon Ross once did a 3-part series about Americans called “Fat”, “Dumb” & “Rich”.
If he did one about Australians it would have to be called “Greedy”, “Stupid” & “Fearful” 🙁
I know the one you’re talking about and I decided to look at his platform. It was pretty left-wing from what I glanced at (It was mostly economic stuff I saw. I didn’t really see any takes on refugees or LGBT+, or anything like that – it was just a glance). He had no shot, so I didn’t really invest too much thought but I did admire the effort he put into the run, which is more than most independents do.
BK
Plibersek.
I value integrity.
BK @ #823 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 11:55 am
Better. Chalmers has the goods for mine.
BK:
“I have tried to logically review the contenders for Labor leadership and came up with this.
What do you reckon?”
Interesting exercise, but each of those categories / attributes needs to be weighted. They are not equally valued by the electorate.
Attractive? I’d forgotten about all the past hotties that were PM. 🙂
Farr misses a lot of points in his postmatch.
The Queensland CFMMEU for starters….
Don’t forget the economy is tanking. We’ll be in recession soon probably. Incumbent govts always get the blame. Labor will get back in next time with a big swing if they play their cards well enough.
If all 7 go ALPs way it will be 73 LNP 71 ALP 7 others.
This wishful thinking does not lighten my mood.
Admit it, you would turn for Gorton!
nath:
In fact, it could be argued that the three most conventionally attractive PMs in recent times – Keating, Gillard, and Abbott – were also some of the least popular.
BK @ #820 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 1:55 pm
Unfortunately I think the media would attack Plibersek or KK in the same way they did Gillard. Albo as already mentioned would have a lot of dirt thrown at him.
frednk @ #817 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 1:53 pm
Maybe if Labor had have convinced the Queenslanders on clean energy job security a Labor govt would be in power today.
Scott says Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 1:48 pm
I think he’s wrong. Too many of the current generation of journalists and editors are wedded to them. They don’t know anything else. With the hollowing out of the media virtually all of the policy specialists have gone. All that are left are the tea leaf readers, and opinion poles are their tea leaves.
Gorton was hung like a horse!
I am, as always, surprised at how many alleged Labor supporters are busily shredding the various leadership contenders here. For my money Labor’s team is one of its biggest strengths and most of them would probably make decent opposition leaders.
My own hope is that whoever the next leader is, they are the person with the best possible chance of defeating the LNP at the next election – and that if it turns out they aren’t, they stand down for the good of the party. I have a lot of respect for how Bill Shorten ran this campaign, and I think he would have made a decent prime minister, but there is no escaping the fact that he has been (justly or not) a drag on the Labor vote from the word go. In hindsight, the best thing for him to do would have been to resign after the 2016 election and allow someone without all of his baggage to lead Labor to this election.
There’s a lot of Jacinda-envy going on, but it’s worth remembering that the only way NZ got Ardern was because Andrew Little knew he wasn’t cutting through and fell on his sword. If the ALP’s next leader finds themselves in a similar position, I hope they have the courage to do the same – and if not, the ALP needs to get ruthless and do it for them.
My lefty heart wants to see Tanya Plibersek as leader, and I honestly think she’d do a great job and cut through pretty well. But I don’t know that, and neither does anyone else. If the victor turns out to be a mistake, it’s best to rectify it before the election rather than after losing it.
(FWIW, this is the same reason that Jeremy Corbyn is a terrible Labour leader and should resign.)
zoomster says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 1:29 pm
Or do they? 🙂
Asha:
Keating and Abbott attractive? 😮
In the first debate Bill Shorten talked about Labor bringing stability, but then talked of voting for change. I thought this was wrong at the time. I don’t think you can argue for stability if you’re also promising change. Try for one or the other, but not both.
If you don’t like the idea of a woman being leader because of the concern about opposition misogyny then you are just as misogynistic as they are, as far as I am concerned because you’re enabling it.
That’s not saying that you should support any female candidate who puts their hand up, just that you shouldn’t discount them because of that. The Coalition are going to throw the kitchen sink at everyone.
Only 1 Queenslander there that is here to help? Or do you mean Terri Butler?
The people of the outer suburbs of Sydney and Brisbane rejected Labor’s death tax, the politics of envy and identity politics. Australians trust the Coalition Government to deliver budget surpluses and create more jobs.
Simon² Katich, some sense of proportion might be appropriate.
ALP = salvation as opposed to the Coalition = armageddon on Climate change is pretty simplistic binomial to assert even in less extreme form than those stupid comments referenced – i’ll just cite Adani as one data point to suggest that words are cheap.
In any event i must thank that pile of bile author… from feeling quite despondent, when i see the way people like that choose to react then i feel a bit better that the Coalition won now. ScoMo should hire such types to campaign for the ALP actively, they’ll win 100 seats next time just on pure “F*&^ You” sentiment…
DRDR
I agree. Some of the attributes would be mandatory and the remainder weighted and scored (a la Kepner-Tregoe decision analysis).
FFS, Rex, are you for real?
I think I need to apologise to Beorwar for ever comparing him to you.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/how-labor-lost-queensland-and-gifted-the-coalition-a-third-term/11122998
I think Ged should be leader.
She has the credentials necessary to lead Labor better than any of her colleagues.
Labor need to stand for what the people want, not for what their own ideologies demand. Govts.are meant to working for what the voters want right?
Labor: I blame the voters for not wanting me.
Voters: good luck with that.
Asha Leu @ #846 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 2:05 pm
C’mon, I’m waiting for your withering attack …?