I’m afraid in depth analysis of the result will have to wait until I’ve slept for just about the first time in 48 hours. I’ll just observe that that BludgerTrack thing on the sidebar isn’t looking too flash right now, to which the best defence I can offer is that aggregators gonna aggregate. Basically every poll at the end of the campaign showed Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5, and so therefore did BludgerTrack – whereas it looks like the final result will end up being more like the other way around. The much maligned seat polling actually wound up looking better than the national ones, though it was all too tempting at the time to relate their pecularities to a past record of leaning in favour of the Coalition. However, even the seat polls likely overstated Labor’s position, though the number crunching required to measure how much by will have to wait for later.
Probably the sharpest piece of polling analysis to emerge before the event was provided by Mark the Ballot, who offered a prescient look at the all too obvious fact that the polling industry was guilty of herding – and, in this case, it was herding to the wrong place. In this the result carries echoes of the 2015 election in Britain, when polling spoke in one voice of an even money bet between the Conservatives and Labour, when the latter’s vote share on the day proved to be fully 6% higher. This resulted in a period of soul-searching in the British polling industry that will hopefully be reflected in Australia, where pollsters are far too secretive about their methods and provide none of the breakdowns and weighting information that are standard for the more respected pollsters internationally. More on that at a later time.
Boerwar @ #670 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 12:33 pm
If 50% of LNP voters had voted for Labor it would be forming government now. Two obvious but pointless points.
frednk says:
Not forgetting to describe the money paid as coming from “hard working Australian families” with occasional “struggling to make ends meet” added at the end.
Zali Stegall sounds like a bit of a fraud in this interview, is she a indi, or a tory in indi clothing
My biggest fear under this re-elected Lib government is their ongoing trashing of our progressive income tax system. The dreaded “Phase 3” changes would still be saved by an ALP win at the next election right?
If Anthony Albnese had been Labor leader, I predict Labor would have won in a landslide. Especially this government was arguably the most incompetent in Australian history.
Honestly I am predicting the Labor party will be replaced by the Australian Greens as the main Progressive party in Australian politics. By the wy I voted for Mehqren Farqui in the senate in NSW . I argue she is tens times the sort of leader Australian politics needs to have (I admit I am a ‘soft’ Corbynista by the way).
Some good news is that recent breakthroughs with solar tech means higher rates of energy capture and soon to market:
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/18/perovskite-solar-cell-fever-reaches-fever-pitch/
” is she a indi, or a tory in indi clothing”
Troy fer sure. But, i will hold judgement until i see what she actually takes a stand on re: Climate/energy
Maybe don’t make your message about making anyone pay more taxes? Because we’ve seen first hand how that easily morphs into “Labor wants to tax you to death”
I’m not saying that we should not be making the wealthy and corporations pay more taxes. Just don’t make that your message. Or, if you do, make it CLEAR that’s what you’re talking about. Shorten’s vague terms like “top end” just opened imaginations that it might have meant them who he was going to increase taxes on.
mundo @ #745 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 1:21 pm
Resurrect Tony’s Debt Truck. The more people see that the more they may start to believe it.
I’m pretty sure there are bucketloads of sh*t to be thrown at Albo if he’s elected as leader. He has turned too many blind eyes in the past – to corruption in NSW (which our dear departed MTBW’s made clear he was aware of decades before it became public) and the machinations of Rudd, for starters. The msm would have lots of juicy stories they’ve been keeping in reserve, ready to go.
Victoria Labor (ironically, under Shorten) has always been good at ruthlessly cutting out any MP who had anything to do with the Ancien Regime. After all, someone who has been in Parliament a couple of decades, who has had experience as a Minister, has probably achieved all they’re going to, but still has all the contacts, nous and authority to direct events from the outside. Strategic replacement of MPs such as this with bright young things and using the next three years to train them up is probably a good option.
Same with leaders. Someone who has had some governmental experience – e.g. junior Ministry – done some policy development, worked out how to deal with the media, etc but is still a bit of a cleanskin (no connection with any of the knifings) is probably the best choice.
Morrison is still facing a lot of difficulties. The Coalition have already shown they’re not that good at handling a marginal government, so the whole ‘herding cats’ thing which saw them paralysed for the last few years is still a Thing. If it’s minority government, that’s even harder. And there are several key Ministerial roles to be filled.
On the brighter side, the Coalition knows they can’t revisit all the nasty things they wanted to do under Abbott. And we know that they actively resent leaders who try to run the show by themselves. They may have tolerated a Morrison dictatorship for the relatively short period of the election campaign, but there’s no guarantees they’ll knuckle under for an extended period of time. They’re still mad as cut snakes, remember – and not enough of their loonies have been booted.
I’d like to dream of a DD, but this will be a government which clings to power to the last hour. It’s not there because it’s popular.
YBob
This election was not lost because labor failed to get the pension vote.
That’s not what I’m saying. I’m saying that when you make a line such as “This month x people paid no tax, yet got y given to them ……” or wtte
it could be seen as complaining that pensioners get the pension etc
It has been 20 years since Naomi Kleins NoLogo was first published. A book about many things; it was in part about the power and negative effects of branding. The branding where giant companies were selling a lifestyle, through advertising. The fakeness was palbable. But people bought it.
Advertising, branding, marketing became about who you want to be, what group you want to be associated with, affiliate with… identify with. This relationship only grew over the years and reinforced itself to the point it seeped into peoples core values and beliefs. Real life imitated fake branding. Modern western anthropologists write about this cultural phenomenon.
Politics in our democracy has always been about the sell. And perhaps has been about identity and branding all along. Rarely about content, politics has been about hooking in a voter for life by branding them with a political identity- creating a base. Around the time NoLogo was published John Howard was starting his second term and well on the way to the right wing perfecting their branding.
Last night was the pinnacle of all those years of constant broad spectrum focus on making large swathes of the electorate incapable of voting for the ALP, no matter the circumstances.
Puffy TMD
“If you are reading this and you did not vote for the ALP yesterday, you are a murderer.”
“You voted for the rapist murderer party. So ask yourself, what are you?”
If there is any silver lining to the result, its to stick it to absolute f*&^wits like this person. I hope that the ALP disowns and disavows people like you, as should their ardent supporters here. The more the likes of this kind of pathetic sore loser are in any way representative of the party or the movement then the less any normal people will want the slightest thing to do with it.
I generally dont get personal and abusive here, but that kind of disgusting drivel says all we need to know about the author and not the supposed subject being advocated.
YBob
Indi’s indies are total frauds, but everyone – media included – seems to have drunk the KoolAid, so Zali should get away with it!
Has the next labor PM even been born yet?
…if you want grim reality, that over 65 cohort gets smaller by the day…
If Albanese were leader, Labor would have lost by even more.
Shorten would have white-anted him just to make sure that he lost, just like Krudd tried to do with Dullard.
Just want to say fuck the pollsters (except you William, can’t do a good job when all you’ve got to work with is shit) and FUCK the compliant, self absorbed media! Even the ABC was biased in its coverage. Scummo probably won’t try to privatise it, but he’ll sure keep working on turning it into a Liberal party version of the People’s Daily.
I wasn’t wrong about the polls being wrong, but I misread the way the vote would go. Clive Palmer saved the election for the libs. I didn’t think enough people would fall for his bullshit.
My take:
Labor needs to stand for what it believes in. It might be tempting to go further right, but you can’t win on being Liberal-lite and Greens hating. Right leaning voters won’t buy it, and left leaning ones take their first preference elsewhere. Full disclosure: I did. You can’t be wishy-washy. This election was a fuck up on tactics, messaging, and voter distrust of RGR era Shorten even though he could have been a competent PM. I don’t know who should replace him, but I reckon Penny Wong has what it takes if she could swap with someone in the lower house. Whoever takes the job has to be charismatic and take a strong stance. Look at Jackie Lambie. People like or respect her even if they don’t agree with a lot of what she has to say. Keep the base on side and win whoever else over you can, especially young people. The mainstream media is with the enemy and pollsters can be safely ignored for the time being.
Oppositions can’t apparently can’t ever go big target, and they have to fight dirty. It shouldn’t be this way in a democracy with an educated populace, but it apparently is. There are always going to be a lot of ignorant and small minded people at the ballot box unless we start restricting voting based on ability to pass some kind of civics/basic knowledge test.
zoomster backing someone with Junior Ministry experience. let me guess, from the Right? She’s obviously correct, I mean look at the Indi results!
Lord help us.
And she’s blaming Albo for all the corruption in the NSW Right. It doesn’t get any funnier.
meher baba says Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 1:07 pm
It’s ironic, but this probably equally applies to Morrison, except Morrison has been better able to hide his machinations. Look at what he did to Michael Towke, even getting the ALP to provide a dirt file on Towke (https://twitter.com/kyleandjackieo/status/1034236800670154752?lang=en), and I bet Sam regrets that now. There are still plenty of Abbott supporters who blame Morrison for the change to Turnbull. Then there are the claims that Morrison’s hands were not clean at all in the removal of Turnbull, and if anything, that he had been planning it for some time.
I think he would have been a PM very much in the Hawke style, although without the popularity, or the need to be loved.
I’m surprised no one made anything out of all the people who lost the pension in the last government.
Be careful with the advice of economists. How many of Ken Henry’s tax plan were politically feasible?
Not true in the slightest. People are increasingly living longer.
laughtong @ #754 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 1:27 pm
I honestly thought Labor would do it this time. Nope.
Labor lacks the killer instinct. But they do really cool policy work. Hey guys, let’s go do some cool policy work, and, then let’s go write a musical!!! Yay!!
Hey, Joel Fitzgibbon got Latham up as leader. The man’s the obvious choice for leader. He is a visionary.
Taylormade, I dunno was John Howard born by 1993?
Oh, and Keneally would be an awful, awful choice. A talented and charismatic woman, no doubt, but come on. If Shorten has baggage, then she has a fully packed airport carousel. The attack ads write themselves.
Or he could do us a solid and catch the same bus out as Shorten.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 1:23 pm
Queensland – 75.1% counted
Primary vote
ALP 27.4% (-3.5%)
Greens 10.2% (+1.4%)
And the Galilee Basin will now be developed; oh the success. The Greens campaigned hard against Labor and won along with Clive who campaigned hard against Labor and won; and the LNP that campaigned hard against Labor and won.
Don’t write off Kimberley Kitching. I’m sure zoomster will back her.
If Labor had proposed universal basic income which is not means tested, then those who feared from losing from Labor’s proposed negative gearing and franking dividends changes.
Because one needs to realize that some Boomer retirees are actually supporting financially especially their Millennial children (if they have them( considerably, by if possible paying for their whole university fees or providing deposits for their home loans. Wonder why Boomers are worried about Labor’s promised changes to Franking Dividends. Because many Baby Boomers who have Millennial children are supporting them as much as possible
I can’t quite decide who is more detached from reality today, Rex or Boerwar.
It is such a tone deaf move, it might just happen.
And I do think she’s a good spokesperson. Just… really? You want to remind everybody of your link to the late, ultra-corrupt NSW State Labor Government?!
Did Albo deliver a speech? He was scheduled to front the media at 1:30 eastern.
Dreyfus or Butler…or both.
I remember when KK got the nod from Eddie and Joe to become premier – that is enough to exclude her from leadership
nath
Not backing anyone, don’t know who’s out there.
Indi result saw a swing to Labor.
Brothers.
laughtong says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 1:27 pm
….
Resurrect Tony’s Debt Truck. The more people see that the more they may start to believe it.
If the budget keeps going as it is ( the surplus thing was bullshit) then 100% agree,
Asha Leu @ #781 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 1:38 pm
C’mon don’t tease me…. go your hardest !
frednk @ #743 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 11:19 am
Yes. Let’s not rush to jettison the entire platform. Much of it was valid and may only need the odd tweak. Other parts need to be completely re-fashioned. Take time people. We have to get it right.
RL
I meant the present cohort!
zoomster says Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 1:31 pm
Quite the opposite. We have an aging population and that cohort is getting large by the day.
Give it a rest, nath. I’m not from the Right. They tell me I’m too green!
frednk @ #778 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 1:37 pm
Don’t you mean the Queensland CFMMEU campaigned against Labor ..?
So Bill cuts across Albo’s speech – nice work 😆
expat,
while I do not endorse the comment you refer to, I understand the sentiment behind it.
Voting is not a whimsy, it is a responsibility. And with it must come some accountability. The Abbott experiment made some sense. At a time when we are feeling the undoubted force of climate change (a clear and present danger from natural disasters, food and water security to global political stability) with a political party demonstrably disinterested and/or incapable of being part of the solution to that threat, voting for Morrison is at best reckless. Deliberate, unjustifiable recklessness.
Given that Queenslanders are so determined to fry the planet and trash their main tourist attraction we should be proactive and rename it the “Once Great Barrier Reef”.
Rational Leftist:
This deserves to be repeated.
Oakeshott Country:
As does this.