I’m afraid in depth analysis of the result will have to wait until I’ve slept for just about the first time in 48 hours. I’ll just observe that that BludgerTrack thing on the sidebar isn’t looking too flash right now, to which the best defence I can offer is that aggregators gonna aggregate. Basically every poll at the end of the campaign showed Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5, and so therefore did BludgerTrack – whereas it looks like the final result will end up being more like the other way around. The much maligned seat polling actually wound up looking better than the national ones, though it was all too tempting at the time to relate their pecularities to a past record of leaning in favour of the Coalition. However, even the seat polls likely overstated Labor’s position, though the number crunching required to measure how much by will have to wait for later.
Probably the sharpest piece of polling analysis to emerge before the event was provided by Mark the Ballot, who offered a prescient look at the all too obvious fact that the polling industry was guilty of herding – and, in this case, it was herding to the wrong place. In this the result carries echoes of the 2015 election in Britain, when polling spoke in one voice of an even money bet between the Conservatives and Labour, when the latter’s vote share on the day proved to be fully 6% higher. This resulted in a period of soul-searching in the British polling industry that will hopefully be reflected in Australia, where pollsters are far too secretive about their methods and provide none of the breakdowns and weighting information that are standard for the more respected pollsters internationally. More on that at a later time.
Yep. Tanya would be brilliant, but the dumbfcks are in control. Go with Albo, then switch.
Which have absolutely nothing to do with what I was saying.
Monumental and heroic effort by Morrison. Devastating result for Labor. Outstanding for centre right politics.
Rex Douglas: “Give the power to the rank and file.”
And you’ll get someone like Jeremy Corbyn. Perhaps you won’t mind that, but – call me old-fashioned, but I tend to think that centrists are more attractive to the electorate as a whole.
Puffy, unfortunately Australia has become a country that hates to hear the truth, so used has it become to deceiving itself.
If you want to know who to elect as leader of labour – take an hour of each politician talking and see which one doesn’t make you fall asleep
Graham @ #906 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 2:44 pm
Hey, what if they all do?
Generic Person says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 2:43 pm
In what way was the centre/right involved?
(Turn down your speakers.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxis55X9PrI
Graham says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 2:44 pm
We’re talking about Australia, not the UK! 🙂
@adrian perhaps a 3 minute challenge?
Expat Follower @ #763 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 1:00 pm
You might not like it. But what I say is true. And sometimes the truth hurts. What nerve in you did I touch?
Jaeger @ #861 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 12:13 pm
The problem I see with that is that a lot if the clean industry jobs would pay a lot less than mining, and a lot of them, in the manufacture process at least, will end up being automated anyway.
Graham @ #906 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 12:44 pm
Great idea. This guy makes even the economy sound interesting!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4qvhJxhb90
Shermos @ #824 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 1:58 pm
Incumbent governments get the blame if they’re Labor.
Coalition governments simply blame Labor citing debt n deficits or something, works a treat. and you know, labor can’t manage money.
G’Day,
Long time lurker, first time poster and as a Labor supporter, current member and a unionist for over 45 years I have a few thoughts on some of the comments on Williams’ great blog particularly regarding The Union movement .
l apologise in advance for a probably too long and rambling post as I’m not much of a writer. Firstly I’m gutted that Labor has lost once again to the forces of self interest and the only silver lining is that Bob Hawke didn’t live to be disappointed. My work history and Union involvement is as follows Vic public service-public service union, builders labourer-BLF, factory worker-Tobacco Workers Union, construction worker (Westgate Bridge)-Ironworkers Union, office worker-TWU, self employed distributor (went broke height of 80’s recession) truck driver, self employed owner driver-TWU and currently a production Worker covered by the AMWU. In that time I’ve been involved in many disputes,strikes and and general bastardry by various employers and seen the strangulation and disempowerment of the union movement by various State and Federal Tories since the early 70’s till today. Therefore I believe I have some understanding of the changes to the workplace and the Union Movement on the shop floor over these past 45 plus years.
From the many discussions/arguments I’ve read on this blog from many different posters over the years from supporters of Unions and Labor I wonder how many have experienced being out on the grass, wondering how your going to pay your bills or feed your kids when you’re a one income household but sticking it out in solidarity with your workmates for what’s fair despite the cost or been a shop steward who put in huge hours of voluntary labour for not monetary reward but for the common good, who paint a target on themselves come every EBA from companies who will attempt to intimidate or sack them for any perceived transgression or the frustration of going to so called FairWork with a solid case only to be overturned by a biased, stacked kangaroo court, it’s like complaining to your mother in law about your wife, no hope.
The Union Movement isn’t a theoretical or esoteric exercise but rather men and women willing to put in the time, money blood,sweat and tears for the whole Labor movement, for the benefit of all.
For those on this Blog advocating the distancing of the Labor Party from it’s Union roots- I’ve got news for you. The ALP was set up and still is the political arm of that Union Movement. If you don’t like it, form your own party instead of high jacking mine.
Red Clyde
One good thing about Australian politics is that, after 2016, it took only three years to answer the question of whether Shorten was good or Turnbull was just bad.
The UK have to wait another 3 years to answer a similar question about their last election.
This tweet has now disappeared
Joel Fitzgibbon
Verified account
@fitzhunter
May 18
More
I am honoured to be recommend as a Labor’s leader/ deputy position candidate
I like the idea of democracy dumplings. sui mai or shark fin?
That was Rex, not me.
Jaeger @ #896 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 2:41 pm
How about this; go with Albo, get elected, then knife Albo and install Tanya.
You know it makes sense.
Re Adani: I’m still not convinced that it was a huge factor in many marginal seats. Arguably only three: Herbert, Capricornia and Leichhardt. In those three, you can be certain that the ill-judged convoy was most unhelpful to Labor’s chances. But the swings were so big that they probably would have lost anyway.
I remain to be convinced that the Adani issue had any great impact in Brisbane. The bad results for Labor in that city are consistent with the swings against Labor in most places o be found outside of the inner-Sydney/inner-Melbourne/Canberra/Hobart bubble. And I reckon that those results were mainly a function of Labor’s taxation and economic policies, not its stance on climate change, which wasn’t really anti-Adani anyway.
Why do the Victorians keep insisting that building railroads through us will make us love them?
We’re in a post-sense universe, mundo.
I heard Daniel Andrews on ABC radio this morning, being interviewed by Jon Faine. Andrews pointed out that with all the big projects going on here, it would be hard to find the workers and other resources to build East West link too at the same time as the other major road & rail constructions were soaking up everything. Also repeated the Vic govt line that the other projects have a viable business case, and East West doesn’t. It didn’t sound at all like he was going to take the feds money if it was only for East West.
I’me coming around to the idea of Dr Chalmers.
Got a ring to it.
I think it will be a long time till Australia has an ALP government. It will be when the crisis hits, and everyone will be screaming for the lefties to save them. “You care about society. Save our society. Fix this mess. pretty please.” And as soon as they are saved, the mess is fixed, they will vote the Right back in to take care of their money. Because suddenly society won’t matter anymore, only individuals are important.
There is not a principled bone in most Australian’s bodies, and greed rules. We are a shameful disgusting lot..
Millennial
says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 2:56 pm
Why do the Victorians keep insisting that building railroads through us will make us love them?
_________________
What about trams?
“Monumental and heroic effort by Morrison. Devastating result for Labor. Outstanding for centre right politics….”
It was not a monumental effort by Morrison, the persona is fake. Labor gifted the Libs this election courtesy of franking credit policy, and its inevitable portrayal as class envy. They lost a lot of votes thanks to this miscalculation.
Polls are so prevalent now that results miss a group who will just hang up the phone. These people are conservative but not particularly political.
The defeat had nothing to do with Greens opposition to Adani, BW. Wake up.
Jaeger @ #920 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 12:54 pm
Mea culpa.
Jim Chalmers was blooded as the Labor spokesman for the campaign and I don’t recall he made any big mistakes.
Nath
We’d already scrapped trams here like, 40 years ago.
Leroy: “Andrews pointed out that with all the big projects going on here, it would be hard to find the workers and other resources to build East West link too at the same time as the other major road & rail constructions were soaking up everything.”
Not enough workers!! What about all those people languishing on Newstart or suffering from the withdrawal of Sunday penalty rates?
Oh, I forgot, in order to land a lucrative construction job in this country you need to belong to one of two very exclusive clubs which are called the CFMMEU and the AWU. My bad.
lizzie @ #926 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 2:58 pm
Far from making mistakes Lizzie, he was outstanding.
lizzie: “Jim Chalmers was blooded as the Labor spokesman for the campaign and I don’t recall he made any big mistakes.”
He consistently argued strongly in favour of the Labor tax package. But I don’t personally blame him for that.
I started the day thinking Albo, but I’m slowly becoming persuaded by the arguments in favour of Chalmers: a fresh start and all that.
Good Afternoon
For those saying let’s go with Jim Chalmers. Pause think. Nikki Savva likes the idea of him for Labor’s leader.
All good, Dan. I’m enjoying raging against the Machine Head. 🙂
Lovey
On the opinion polls. From the comments here, some electorates received an unending stream of calls. (I received none as Casey was of no interest.)
It wouldn’t be surprising if people got so sick of it they refused to answer or just made shit up.
At the very least he should replace Bowen as shadow treasurer.
If Chalmers becomes leader I’m just letting you guys know upfront that I’ll be constantly be making Steamed Hams jokes.
I’m definitely not sold on Chalmers. There’s a little bit too much “easy solution” about the pitch for him on here.
Ditto. And aurora borealis jokes.
“Outstanding for
centre right politicslies, fear, greed and stupidity.”Have they asked permission from Barnaby?
ALP vote collapsed around the nation. The left wing crap has failed and Aussies do not want to be taxed to death.
Lovey: “It was not a monumental effort by Morrison, the persona is fake. ”
All political personas have a strong element of phoniness in them. Morrison is a cunning fox with a strong background in marketing, but he is also in some ways the daggy dad from the suburbs that he would like us all to think of him as being.
Most of all, Morrison is an engaging communicator. He demonstrated this consistently throughout the campaign, not least when he was talking about the death of Bob Hawke, on which subject he was twenty times as effective as Shorten.
In politics, some have the ability to communicate and some don’t. Normally, those that don’t never make it to the top: but in recent decades we have seen the likes of Simon Crean, Mark Latham, Brendan Nelson, Tony Abbott, Julia Gillard (although she always seemed to be a good communicator up and until she became PM) and Bill Shorten. IMO, none of these were up to the mark as communicators. But it’s been a very strange period in our political history.
Millennial
says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 2:59 pm
Nath
We’d already scrapped trams here like, 40 years ago.
______________________________
I presume that the promise of decent teeth won’t tempt. How about we relocate most of the armed forces bases to Qld? Throw in a special Queensland Air Conditioning rebate on electricity?
guytaur: “For those saying let’s go with Jim Chalmers. Pause think. Nikki Savva likes the idea of him for Labor’s leader.”
For me that’s a plus,, but I recognise I’m very much an outlier on this forum.
meher baba – I mean people like project engineers and other rare skills construction professionals, not people doing labouring. I know people who have recruited for the big contractors and govt agencies because of all the work goin on, and the market is getting tight.