No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.
The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.
Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.
Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.
I have been trying to post the following for some time, but keep getting told it is a repeat of one I have already posted. Hopefully adding this bit at the top will get around that.
A E
Is there any way we could persuade you pack right now and head off today. It would also be a bonus if you could take Mundo with you.
Some quiet time amongst the sheep and the kiwis would be an excellent tranquilizer for the two of you, as well as a big relief for the rest of us.
A powercore chap came around this morning to remind me a new pole in going up on the 19th.
No electricity for me sunday bugger.
Anyway he proudly showed me a pic of himself and Bill Shorten standing together, so I assumed he was a labor supporter.
He is from Wannon electorate afaik.
Dog’s Breakfast @ #591 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 1:14 pm
There’s more hand wringing about hand wringing than actual hand wringing.
C@tmomma @ #584 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 1:36 pm
I did a Morgan poll a few years ago and they gave me a mock ballot paper to anonymously write down my voting preference. Not sure if they still do that.
Is there any info yet about the exit polls which will be available on Saturday afternoon?
Burgey @ #395 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:59 am
Somehow, I doubt they will get it. Going to take at least one more electoral kicking, quite possibly more.
They certainly deserve them.
–––––––––––––––
Ante Meridian @ #495 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:59 am
The Libs do have a 6% margin to overcome, and in the face of an ≈2% national swing against them.
OTOH, all of that margin was gained at the last election, so it may not be so sticky.
The NT government certainly has budget woes, for various reasons (majority of which have nothing to do with the current government, who have only been in office for 2.5 years). I think it is fair to say that a budget reckoning was going to come due about now regardless of who was in power here.
All the Lib ads here are concentrated on the budget, tying Big Bad Bill to NT Labor, and the local angle (send a message to Gunner, local jobs, take the pressure of NT families, get the NT back on track, etc).
You could be excused for thinking it was an NT election.
“Andrew, when you join the lineup on Bunker Hill, remember – “aim for the officers”!”
Yeah. Nah. That’s a fallacy. The officers, especially 18th century British ones who purchased their commission, are the ones most likely to fuck up the enemy’s attack.
Aim for the sergeants: they’re the ones actually running the show.
Morgan leans left.
I have never heard something so preposterous, polling wise, in all my life.
What a joke!!!
adrian@1:27pm
“At the moment our planet’s sea ice is in record low territory”
That is pretty scary because what it means is that climate change effects are under way.
Nicko
This is an example of a Morgan off the scale 9 days before the 2010 election
https://www.pollbludger.net/2010/08/12/morgan-face-to-face-57-5-42-5-to-labor/
Actually for the nervous nellies, PB August 2010 has a series of TPP polls similar to what we are getting at them moment.
citizen says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 1:49 pm
But you did when you walked out of the Chamber when it came to the vote on ME.
You did when you invited media into your Church during a service.
Hypocrite!!!
More playing with pre-poll numbers.
Victoria has 11 of the top 20 seats of pre-polling as a percent of enrolled to vote (led by Flinders with 29.9% having voted as at COB yesterday)
“Morgan leans left.
I have never heard something so preposterous, polling wise, in all my life.
What a joke!!!”
Yeah. Shenanigans to that shite.
“Mr Morrison accused Mr Shorten of a “cheap shot” over the question on Tuesday and made it clear he did not believe that gay people would go to hell, one day after giving a less direct answer to the question.”
Morrison is a liar, unless he has now split from his church on this doctrine.
“We believe that our eternal destination of either Heaven or hell is determined by our response to the Lord Jesus Christ.”
They have already determined that a LGBT lifestyle leads to only one destination and it ain’t heaven.
Rocket Rocket says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 1:44 pm
beguiledagain
It must have been bizarre to see the greatest “October Surprise” ever fail to move the dial.
And then I always imagine how McGovern and all the people who had worked in that election would have felt as it all unravelled in slow motion over the next eighteen months.
———————-
Yes. In retrospect I think that what happened was that the Post and Woodstein had such a great exclusive that the rest of the media in Washington couldn’t get near it. And as journalists do, if you can’t beat ’em, ignore ’em.
Very few other major media organizations in those initial months, including the New York Times decided to dedicate the required resources to match the Post. So by the time the final weeks of the election campaign rolled around the story had little traction.
I remember that I was shocked when CBS promo’d the series because I felt that it was not going anywhere. Bob Woodward referred to CBS picking up his material as “a kiss” from Walter Cronkite. He and Bernstein were frustrated that the rest of the Washington media had left them out to dry.
There was considerable dissension inside CBS about the broadcasts with senior management furious that they were risking violating the broadcasting industry’s fairness doctrine. And Nixon’s friend Bebe Rebozo brought together a group of businessmen who challenged the Washinton Post’s two TV licenses in Florida, CBS affiliates, an unprecedented move that was direct payback for the Watergate coverage.. Would that we had a public broadcaster with the courage that CBS exhibited over the years with Walter Cronkite as managing editor.
Can anyone advise where and when this mass of pre-polls are counted?
Some mood music for you guys n gals..
https://youtu.be/OA_CndlBu0g
Paddy
says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 2:08 pm
Can anyone advise where and when this mass of pre-polls are counted?
__________________________
I think they were counted after election day votes in Victoria last year.
Pre-polls can vary sometimes they’re counted later, sometimes they come in weird batches mid-count and throw poor Antony Green for a bit of a loop… for a second.
Paddy says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 2:08 pm
Should be Saturday night, but as they represent a very large booth the results shouldn’t be out until late.
Patrick Bateman @ #407 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:37 am
Yes, sadly it seems the un-loseable election could indeed be lost.
A loss would be catastrophic for Labor. Not sure how the current structure of the party could possibly survive… ?
I’d imagine they start counting them at the same time, but given the huge number they’re the last to be reported. I’m sure scrutineers are feeding figures back to HQ though.
Oh come on, Labor will survive regardless of the election outcome.
Paddy,
The pre-polls will be counted on the day, and will probably come in after all the on-the-day booths (because the sheer number of them will take a while to count).
Ven @ #605 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 1:33 pm
Climate change effects have been underway for years. How is this not common knowledge?
Pre-polls will be counted on Saturday night. In most State elections they are counted later.
JM
Thanks for the update. The Territory elections we experienced in Alice and Darwin were a lot of fun.
If I remember correctly, on the morning of the 1987 election, the first story on the 7am news on ABC radio was something like “The CLP have firmed in the betting today to get a clean sweep of all 25 seats in today’s Northern Territory election”. Unusual way to start the news (and I think they gave how the odds had changed, can’t remember what they were) – in any case the CLP actually went backwards from 19 to 16 seats!
The most bizarre (is anything bizarre in the NT?) result was in Sadadeen in Alice Springs – Denis Collins who was the CLP member lost the preselection to Shane Stone (future Chief Minister), so he ran as an independent. From memory I think he campaigned from the Todd Tavern – and won!
this from wikipedia
A conspiracy theorist, Collins advocated burying guns in the desert in response to the Fabian Socialist World Bank conspiracy. He was defeated in 1994 by CLP candidate Richard Lim.
In later years he joined One Nation, and contested the Tasmanian seat of Bass for the party in 2001
according to the guardian
Federal election 2019: Scott Morrison says he doesn’t believe gay people go to hell
So the bible is crap ay scott
Barney in Saigon @ #607 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 1:33 pm
Don’t forget “this isn’t about our mothers or families” (after the smear on Shorten’s mum) -> *drives directly to LNP launch and waves his wife around like a trophy*
Hard to disagree with this assessment:
Andrew Catsaras
@AndrewCatsaras
Mercedes announces it is phasing out petrol/diesel fueled vehicles.
https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/motoring/motoring-news/mercedesbenz-to-call-it-quits-on-petrol-and-diesel-powered-cars/news-story/c3104ab07d351f9e0622a20c096b070f#.qwb8x
Patrick Bateman @ #621 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:14 pm
I’ll give you clue: it begins with ‘m’ and ends with an ‘a’.
Patrick Bateman
Climate Denial is strong. Then there is denial about how fast it’s happening. As mentioned on the Drum last night. Some are still talking about climate change as a future event rather than something that is happening today.
adrian @ #626 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:17 pm
I think the media coverage has been as good and fair as it could possibly be given the current toxic nature of the two major parties.
pithicus @ #185 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:15 pm
More like “Scott Morrison confirms that ‘saying anything if it means winning an election’ is not considered sinful”.
Morrison might face a few questions from the Shire Live pastor and members when he next attends, especially if he loses the election.
Rex Douglas @ #630 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:20 pm
You would.
Rex Douglas @ #624 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:20 pm
I see you’ve progressed from rabbit holes of fuckwittery to open cut mines of it.
ltep @ #619 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:13 pm
If they can’t beat this current L/NP rabble then the party structure needs re-building from the ground up.
My dear old mother lives in Boothby – is being bombarded by literature. Mum had knee replacement 2 months ago and family get her mail whilst she is recovering at home. She asks what was there – our general response personal mail and election stuff. She just says put the election stuff in the bin and won’t even bother reading it.
Do people actually like their letter boxes stuffed every couple of days with the same message?
Rex Douglas
Now you are writing crap. The media as a whole swallowed the carbon tax lie of Credlin. They have not improved much since.
Australia is finally at least waking up to Newscorp and it’s agenda. Not everyone has. I say that as someone who thinks Labor grasping the nettle on Adani could have been much stronger on climate change.
Guardian: “Exclusive – Higgins polling suggests Greens could take seat from Liberals in upset” Question – if the polls suggest something could happen, and it happens, is it an “upset”?
guytaur @ #629 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 1:49 pm
I think the fundamental problem is that it is yet to really tangibly ripple through a major western country. Things like fires and hurricanes have always happened, and increases are a matter of degree.
There are some interesting arguments that the Syrian civil war and some other recent global strife is caused, or exacerbated, by climate change.
We are getting closer to some more fundamental issues though, like crop failures as pesticides plus climate change annihilate insect populations and break the basic links required to keep food crops growing. Maybe once supermarkets start being sold out of certain common foods people will wake up a bit.
As a South Australian, I would hope that the temperature hitting 47 degrees would wake a few people up, but the state polling indicates that my fellow croweaters are happy to be roasted in their own juices by voting LNP.
adrian @ #633 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:21 pm
Don’t go blaming the media if Labor can’t beat this current L/NP rabble.
If the Greens win Higgins it will be an upset victory regardless of how many polls showed it happening in advance.
The won’t win Higgins though.
GG
Mercedes announces it is phasing out petrol/diesel fueled vehicles.
How is Morrison going to stop them doing this? He must surely try?
I should add – banning pesticides that do not break down quickly in the environment and farming practices that do not embrace biodiversity should be almost as high a priority as acting on climate change. The climate is changing but separately from that we are at a tipping point with the way we interact with ecosystems.
I don’t understand anyone who doesn’t want to stop these things happening. We absolutely can stop them, and probably will eventually. The question is how much damage we let slide by before we get into gear.
Mercedes declares war on the weekend.
Good to see Rex arrive on time to give us some half decent standup.
Time for a laugh.
We all need a good laugh.
Jack Aranda @ #620 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:25 pm
If a single seat poll were to prove accurate, that would be an upset.