No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.
The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.
Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.
Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.
Simon² Katich® @ #394 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:27 am
—
i call bulldust and I am on the ground. No seats will fall in Tasmania.
It is not hand wringing. The polls are close. The seat polls are confusing. There are many complicating factors with the minor parties. There is a broad anti left feeling in large parts the electorate.
The ALP need to make up seats.
The possibility of a return of this awful government is real and needs to be considered.
I remember talk on 5 March 1983 about a late swing back to the libs.
Barney in Saigon @ #398 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:31 am
Very true. A depressingly defeatist attitude.
Like it or not, but if Labor manages to lose then it will be regarded as a combination of the franking credits policy and Shorten’s unpopularity.
At the risk of incurring screeching, and coming from a progressive perspective, I do wish that they’d been a bit more nuanced with the franking credits issue. They could have got exactly the same political mileage out of it by (for example) grandfathering it for people who are within 5 years of retirement, and this would have hugely blunted the attacks and the hysteria. I know some reasonably well off, but small-l liberal, people who feel very nervous about their retirement planning being affected by this. We can all yell and scream about how good they have it, but ultimately such people still vote and this issue has become a lightning rod.
Re Shorten, I’m not so sure. The double standards are appalling – if any Lib leader had the same level of criticism and scrutiny directed at him, he’d melt in seconds. But awake in the small hours of the night I often wonder about how Tanya Plibersek would be going at this point in the campaign… much better, I strongly suspect.
Of course most analysis will ignore the appalling lies being run on social media and the News Corp MSM, but they surely must be a factor in how close this is. My Facebook feed is full of this rubbish.
That’s not what I’m saying Barney nor do I think it.
Simon² Katich® @ #402 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:03 am
Some here seem to think that if you even mention the possibility that Labor will lose it will somehow become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The polls are far too close. Well within the range where a ‘shy Tory’ effect, or a refugee boat, or a terror scare, will get the Libs over the line.
So has an ear to the (under)ground.
Don’t know if this will work, but this is the ALP CC add. Great work.
The latest evidence for Bass was last Saturday’s Newspoll showing Bass being retained by the ALP.
I note that Morrison has shown a singular lack of interest in Tasmania for more than a week now. Not going there.
I think his chance of success there is past.
I also note that Morrison is not going to Herbert or Lindsay either. If they were the chances for the Liberals as earlier thought, Morrison would be visiting them more to keep any movement away from Labor on track.
He’s not, speaks volumes.
Obviously not!
This is why the election matters; and many others like it all over the world:
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/05/13/we-dont-know-planet-co2-levels-hit-415-ppm-first-time-3-million-years
I will be well gone by the time the planet gets to 3.5 degrees of warming (which it will do on current projections) but my children & grandchildren will probably face this in their lifetimes.
So, every election of an even half-way progressive government gives the planet a fighting chance.
Electing the LNP gives it no chance at all.
The result of this election matters.
“I find it difficult to believe that you are a seasoned campaigner.”
I’m a hasbeen who never was. It’s been 15 years since I ran either a campaign or a campaign office. Some elections I even sat out altogether – because I was travelling for work or had other commitments.
I think my problem this time around is simply nervous energy: I haven’t been able to campaign at all because I’ve been travelling around the state for work and even when I’m home on the weekends I’ve been busy packing up the house – not for that NZ move (lol) but simply for a move into our garage for the next 4 months as the back half of our house is gutted and then rebuilt as a major renovation project – which is due to start next Monday morning.
I’ll admit I’m still reeling from Labor’s bad last week in the nsw election campaign and the prospect of that whole trumpian thing resonating in this election: I’m sure I’d be in a much better frame of mind if I could actually be more useful in the campaign.
So bludger is a bit of therapy for me at the moment.
Any hoo. Upwards and onwards.
I’ll be back in Sydney by lunchtime on Saturday, so will hand out HTV’s at my local primary school in the afternoon before going to Linda Burney’s Campaign party.
The last Vic election, and the super Saturday elections give more evidence to a ” shy Labor ” effect than a tory one.
“Like it or not, but if Labor manages to lose then it will be regarded as a combination of the franking credits policy and Shorten’s unpopularity”.
Like it or not, but if Labor manages to win then it will be regarded as a combination of the franking credits policy and Shorten’s unpopularity.
If Labor gets elected, the very first bill they should introduce should ban false political advertising.
Any such policy would have to be very conservative, but could use a defamation type approach – you can state your opinion, however vile, but you cannot state or imply false facts.
The Libs and right wing nutter microparties would go crazy about how it’s an attack on free speech, but if the election is still fresh in people’s minds I think there would be strong public support for this. Would the Libs risk a double dissolution over the question of whether politicians should be able to lie to the public?
The second bill should be an ICAC with teeth and the power to rake over the last 6 years of corrupt government…
Red13 @ #405 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:38 am
He’s got a bunch of days left yet. Chickens, counting, hatched, etc..
I believe there is also a broad anti right wing element in the electorate, I know several life long Liberals voters who have vowed to never vote for the Liberals again because they believe in acting on climate change, and they want renewables, EVs etc.
Chopping down Malcolm Turnbull was the last straw for alot of people.
Only the hard right type voters will be going back to the libs, but the moderates, it is a different story.
“Like it or not, but if Labor manages to lose then it will be regarded as a combination of the franking credits policy and Shorten’s unpopularity.”
Indeed – as I mentioned, if the ALP lose, one of the worst aspects will be that it will just reinforce the idea that no party should go into an election with any policies, unless they benefit particular groups, at no cost. Which is completely unrealistic.
As for Tanya – who knows if she would have been able to get the ALP to where they are now anyway. Maybe it would have all fallen apart in the first 6 months? If she was under the scrutiny that an OL is, maybe some skeleton would have fallen out. Impossible to say.
For those talking about Boothby. Have a look at the betting odds.
Greensborough Growler @ #415 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:10 am
I want Labor to win. Let’s be clear about that.
If they win, the evidence of the reasons will be in the electorates that swing. My guess is that housing affordability and climate change will be the things moving people to Labor, as well as dislike of Morrison and his mob.
Vogon Poet @ #414 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:10 am
Let’s hope.
The polling has been bloody weird. Hardly any polls, all very consistent, very odd marginal polling released. I still find it hard to believe that Labor is stuck on 51 after the last fortnight, where they haven’t put a foot wrong and the Libs have been a shambles.
@Simon
I think there’s the happy medium. It’s absolutely closed during the campaign (as it always does). I am absolutely open to the idea that there is a path, however precarious, that could see the Coalition returned. But, since the polling data (in aggregate and for its possible flaws) and the campaign resource allocations are not suggesting that this is likely.
I’m not going to fixate on what might happen for no other reason than that’s an awful way to live. I personally have an idea as to how I expect this to pan out. I see nothing that makes me reconsider that determination BUT I’m also alive to the fact that elections are strange and can have strange outcomes.
It probably helps that I never expected that Labor would completely landslide, because of the size of the swing in 2016 that closed up the margins and did a lot of the work for 2019 and that Australian elections are ALWAYS comparatively close. 52-48 can be landslides in some elections …
You can be aware but not alarmed.
Before people start swearing allegiance to the polls, they (or their producers) have some explaining to do.
Mark the Ballot explains here [https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2019/05/why-i-am-troubled-by-polls.html] that the chances of most of the recent polls converging around 51/49 2PP and not being normally distributed through the margin of error is 16,948 to 1.
In other words, something or someone is corrupting the integrity of these polls.
Mark goes further here [https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2019/05/polling-update.html] to speculate that:
“pollsters are doing one or more of the following (and noting that each pollster could be doing something different):
* augmenting their statistical model with a data analytics model to produce their TPP result
* reporting a rolling average over multiple polls
* polling the same online cohort each time
* polling something like ten times the sample they are reporting, and/or copying each other”
So if some combination of the above is occurring (highly likely) then it raises the question, which way is the bias occurring relative to the two major parties and by how much? Of course, no one can definitively answer this without a massive amount of research but my two bobs worth is that there is a bias towards the coalition of 1-2%. I’m basing this on the following:
* Betting markets aggregating and weighing intelligence other than polls and these markets providing a much higher implied probability of an ALP win of around 82 to 84 seats.
* Many voters switching off from the campaign and having already made up their mind.
* Many of these switched off voters already having voted prepoll.
* An influx of new young voters who are unlikely to respond to polling requests.
But even if we accept the polls are not compromised in someway then based on Bludgertrack and an average MOE of 2.5% then we are still looking at an ALP 2PP result in the range of 49.2% to 54.2%, with the much higher probability that the 2PP % lands well north of 50%.
Barring a major black swan event, I can’t see the Coalition getting anywhere near 66 seats, let alone 76 seats.
booleanbach, a big YES to your post on the grandchildren.
Global warming will cost us more than money.
#NoMoreMorrison
J341983 @ #418 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:45 am
The world needs more wares?
“But awake in the small hours of the night I often wonder about how Tanya Plibersek would be going at this point in the campaign… much better, I strongly suspect.”
I don’t.
Put put way too much stock in popularity ratings which has played to the Coallition’s advantage more often than not.
Shorten has made few mistakes and has been excellent in this campaign. By all reports TP wasn’t great last night.
The franking credits, negative gearing and super reforms have given Labor a funding platform for massive spending increases across health and education. Whether or not the have net-hindered this election chances at all they strongly increase the chance of Labor political dynasty on the basis of implementing precisely the promised (very Labor) platform in an environment of very low expectations and divided enemy
What’s more Bill Shorten will make an excellent prime minister. Kill Bill has only made him stroner
Like it or not, you’ll like it or not. (Sorry. I couldn’t resist.)
Perhaps that pollie of last resort, Clive Palmer, stepped in to help out the Libs with fundraising. I’ve no TV so mercifully unexposed to the Lib attack ads, (and in this safe Labor seat the only thing that’s come thru the letterbox is a Tanya Plibersek Labor flyer)but from the commentary it sounds like they have the money to run them.
Labor should counter them, but in these last days it’s more important to get across the reasons to vote for them that set them apart from the last 6 years(and from the negatives of the RGR years – the point of Keating’s comments this morning)- stability and a lasting program of reform, just doing attack ads would be a bit too same-same.
It sounds like Labor are running a lot more ads this week, at the business end of the campaign. Hopefully that will reduce a lot of what came before, like the Clive crap, to noise. I can’t help thinking the result will be more like 53/47 than 51/49, though I’ll take either
I see the armchair generals are still in full flight here this morning. Well, I’m just back from the real world over at our Pre Poll and I have been having conversations with people that have close connections to the campaign and I am feeling more upbeat as a result.
Simon,
It *is* hand wringing.
Every published poll has the ALP in front 51 or 52% TPP. This idea that it should be a blow out is a crock. 52.something IS a blow out in Australian electoral terms. Look where the leaders are campaigning, look at their various announcements. You can’t comprehensively rule out anything in politics as with life, but every indicator is pointing to Labor winning the election pretty comfortably. If it turns out not to happen, then William may as well close this site down, because polls are utterly useless.
Blobbit, I also think the Negative Gearing changes are more of a negative for Labor then they imagine (and certainly more so than Franking Credits – in my opinion).
All Australian’s are aspirational when it comes to property (regardless of party leanings) – and in a falling property market people are frightened of the additional impacts of the changes to prices.
I will be voting Labor in the lower house (as the Coalition is a disaster and needs to go), but personally I will be voting strategically in the Senate to ensure that NG changes are blocked, that is my vote will not be going to Labor.
Blobbit @ #418 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:41 am
Simon Katich,
I’m with Burgey. Maybe you need to get out and help your local ALP campaign to see what’s REALLY going on.
ltep says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 11:37 am
You may want revisit your words because any other meaning for them is unclear.
Patrick Bateman @ #416 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:42 am
You’re writing plenty of words that just mean you’re hedging your bets.
I’m all in on a comfortable Labor win and the Morrison Government being a dead parrot.
The thing about the franking credits is that investors make rational decisions in their own best interest. If there are some who are buying Commbank and Tesltra based on $10 dividend and $3 franking credit, they will re-assess their position. Those who no longer receive the benefit won’t hold an investment that only makes $10, they will sell those shares to taxpayers (who get the full $13 value) and buy something unfranked returning $11 or $12 in dividends and capital growth eg a mining company. Net result will be no increased income fro the government and income loss and inconvenience for those making the change. Shares with franking will fall slightly (less people in the market for them) and shares with no franking will rise slightly (more in the market for them).
I was also told about something big that’s going to happen on polling day. Nothing to do with Labor specifically. 🙂
C@t
That’s teasing. Could be anything, even a cyclone. 🙂
BOOTHY – Gone ?
At the 2016 general election, NXT posted more than 20% of the primary vote in all five Liberal seats in South Australia, winning the seat of Mayo from a Liberal. Before exploring other House of Representative seat options for Centre Alliance, a few things need to be kept in mind.
1 The Centre Alliance brand is yet to be tested in a general federal election context. Moreover, the brand is yet to be properly tested without the Nick Xenephon appeal attached to the brand because he has retired from politics all together. The only precedent indicators that can offer any insight are the 2016 election, the State Election in 2018 and a wary review of the 2018 by election in Mayo.
2 2 In the Federal election in 2016, NXT received 21.7 percent of the Senate primary vote and won 3 of 12 available senate seats. In the South Australian election in 2018, SA Best (CA) received 19.4 percent of Upper House first preference votes, dropping only 2.3 percent and won two of 11 available seats [Neither of them was Nick Xenephon]
3 3 In the Federal election in 2016, NXT received 21.2 percent of the House of Representatives primary vote in South Australia.
On the positive side, SA Best finished 2nd in the primary vote in 12 of 47 lower house seats (25.5 percent). Seven of these 12 seats were Liberal held seats. SA Best fell just 1.8 percent 2PP short of winning Heyson (51.8) and 4.6% short of winning Finniss (54.6) from the Liberal Party.
A drop from 21.1 percent primary votes in a federal election to 14.1 primary votes in a State election is about a 1/3rd primary vote slippage between 2016 and A pril 2018 in South Australia.
However, those 21 percent of primary votes have to go somewhere if not to Centre Alliance.. and that is a lot of votes to account for right ?
Also, CA preferences flowed to Labot 60% in Boothby in 2016. On paper then, I think the very attractive but pro coal Christian Pentecostal Ms Flint is going to lose her seat in Boothby at this election so the ‘status quo’ prediction WB foresees above is out by one seat IMHO.
This seats and the Tassie seats will definitely be backed for Labor with the bookies from my wallet.
In breaking polling news;
subgeometer
You mentioned RGR in passing, but it popped an idea into my head that a side effect of the relentless and ineffective “Kill Bill” has been to wipe RGR from political memory. If anything “Kill Bill” contributes to the idea of Labor stability.
#NoMoreMorrison
@Red13
“My reading of the campaign thus far has seen Shorten and Labor extensively campaigning in Coalition seats, on the attack. Defensive campaigning has been as rare as hens teeth. Tell me haw many forays has Shorten made to either Herbert or Lindsay,hmm?”
Quite a few by my reckoning. Plus multiple trips to Darwin and Tasmania.
In addition to that Shorten has been on the offensive. But: how many visits to Banks? Page? Forde and Pitrie? Etc.
ScoMo seems to have his spent time equally between sandbagging seats that would need big swings, defending genuine battleground seats and also attaching labor marginals.
PB
Large undecided group. Weird preference outcomes.
Polling companies are finding the volatility on the right hard to deal with. We also saw they missed the Victorian State election result due to primary vote collapse in seats not polled because considered safe for the LNP like Hawthorn.
We know that a common theme is a collapse in the LNP primary result.
The fact that seats like Kooyong Warringah and Wentworth are in play is an astonishingly bad outcome for the LNP.
Just think of the media narrative if Labor was losing its safe seats with a 7% margin in published polling
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 11:53 am
Volcanic eruptions, tsunamis and earthquakes?
C@tmomma @ #432 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:20 am
Yes, a bunch of anecdotes about how people who are going to vote Labor like Labor should be really informative.
There are equally valid ways of helping that don’t involve standing around for hours at a polling booth.
Roger @ #426 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:17 am
So why have the polls consistently had the Libs within the MOE given Shorten’s excellent campaign?
Grubby tactics by Dutton in Dickson.
The full story of RGR has yet to be written. It may take a decade or more to get out, and it will depend upon if Shorten falls out with some of his confederates. Feeney knows a lot. But he won’t talk for a long time. He’s waiting for the plum overseas posting Shorten has in store for him. Washington or a prime spot in Europe.
Ifonly @ #430 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:52 am
I parse that as “capitalism is hopelessly and permanently broken”. 🙂