Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019

Aggregated state breakdowns from Newspoll suggest solid swings in Victoria and Queensland will tip a close result in Labor’s favour.

No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.

The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.

Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.

Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019”

Comments Page 12 of 27
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  2. You live in a seat that is the home of the Downers. I don’t think your local experiences are any real guide at all.

    I am in an electorate that has dumped the Liberal party to a 2PP 40%. The local booth is as Green as it is Blue. And I work all over the place; from BK land to Elizabeth to Darwin to Henley Beach to the Adelaide CBD. I work in Oil and Gas, large infrastructure concept & design, commercial construction, residential construction, other land development, irrigation, other agriculture, mining, nature conservancy… I remember when I think it was bemused asked how many electorates have we spent time in (not just travelled through). From memory, without recalculating it, I had 120.

    But yes. My exposure is just a sliver of a slice of the Australian electorate. As is yours.

    FWIW, I predict an ALP majority of a handful. But I do not discount a Liberal minority. I dont think that is hand wringing. It is simply a reflection that in our system elections are usually close… a reflection that despite the many reasons the ALP should do very well (unified, well organised, energetic ground team and a shambles of a Coalition) they are up against a very stable and sizeable rusted on right wing vote (or anti left wing vote) and an overwhelmingly RW bias in traditional media.

  3. “It’s too late to matter now, but would it have killed them to run some ads which adopted the same format as this golden oldie? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYxnlHmLzOw”

    My thoughts exactly. Labor would not have to spend much advertising money on running Shorten debunking the “death tax”, “property tax” and “retiree tax” lies – just run it once on facebook and let the media report it. Then us labor Facebookers could past it into the comments section every time the Liberal ran their lies on Facebook. Labor should have done that last week. Diffuses the whole ridiculousness of the propaganda there and then. Instead we have been bleeding for weeks on this shite.

  5. So I spoke to someone who gets cash back on their Franked Dividends today and they said they knew it was a rort but why wouldn’t you do it when there was free money on offer?

    They didn’t mind voting for Labor to get rid of it though.

  6. what does freedom of religion mean?

    is this just morrison trying to bring religion back to politics (in his favour)

  7. Jackol,

    If this becomes a legitimate part of the sport I would expect to see this happening regularly, athletes training how to get a good launch for their finishing dive

    If it does become a legitimate part of the sport we can expect the Italian soccer team to become the new track and field stars. 😆

  9. The Morgan poll probably will worry Labor. The last Morgan Poll before the last election was I believe was in May 2016 and was 51% to Labor. Morgan used to rely more on face-t0-face. This skews the result because when a young person in jeans and t-shirt ask you how you want to vote there is a number of people who want to relate to the pollster rather than appear a heartless tory so they answer Green or Labor regardless of how they will actually vote. In general it is a 1-2% shift. If this was a phone poll then less of an issue.

  10. David Paull has stood down as Greens candidate for Parkes. The Greens will take down all campaigning material in his name.

    David absolutely rejects the views he is quoted as supporting, but has stood down to not become a distraction from the important issues The Greens are focused on.

    A Greens candidate claimed on ­social media that Martin Bryant didn’t commit the 1996 Port ­Arthur massacre in which 35 ­people died. He then denied making the comments, before later ­admitting he wrote them.

    The Facebook comment on a Port Arthur conspiracy theory page from David Paull, the Greens candidate in the western NSW seat of Parkes, said the massacre looked “like an operation designed for psychological manipulation of the general ­population”.

    “There is only one sure thing in my mind — Bryant didn’t do it and so a great crime on the Australian people was committed,” the Nov­ember 2018 comment, unearthed by social media intelligence and news agency Storyful, reads.”

  13. Dan Gulberry
    says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 12:57 pm
    nath
    But if you bought your FMG shares back in 2016 for $1.60 like I did, it’s not that bad at all.
    And if the Chinese economy does go into a tailspin, you may well be able to sell them for $1.60 on their way to even lower levels.
    __________________________________
    If the Chinese economy goes into a tailspin I’ll have a lot more to worry about than my FMG shares. we all will. I bet you are one of these people who have been warning about a house price collapse for the past 15 years. 🙂

  15. Simon Katich,
    And I live in an electorate that is full of Self-Funded retirees and it would be easy for me to believe that what my electorate reflects, so does the rest of Australia. So that’s why I have been trying to have as many in-depth conversations with the voters and just people around the place in general, plus with people who have their finger on the pulse of the campaign as well as very near it, as possible, and the impression I am getting, now, is that most sensible people realise that there are various issues which need tackling in this country and it’s not the time to put them on the back burner and there’s only one party who is grasping the bit between their teeth to do anything about any of them. Well, only one party of government.

    On the other hand, the selfish will always vote for self interest. More fiddling while Rome burns again. Luckily, however, there seems to me to be, and it is my understanding from my conversations, that there are more people who are deeply concerned for their, and their children’s future, than how much they have in the bank.

    You can take that with a grain of salt if you want, or you can understand, as I have been coming to the realisation, that most Australians take the election of a federal government very seriously indeed.

    I believe that the ultimate result will exemplify that.

    Sure, the Baby Boomer bulge hasn’t quite worked its way through the system yet, but the times they ARE a changing.

  16. Late Riser says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 12:58 pm

    Jackol, I know what you mean, but that guy wanted to win. He put his body on the line. The rules may change, but he’s an inspiration. (Just for the spectacle I secretly hope it’s allowed to continue.)

    I don’t find anything inspirational about it.

    This win at all costs mentality, what’s wrong with second if someone was better than you on the day?

    It’s definitely not cricket, I hope it hurt!

  17. nath

    I bet you are one of these people who have been warning about a house price collapse for the past 15 years.

    I’ll take you up on that bet. William will pass on my email address so I can let you know where to send my winnings.

  18. jenauthor
    says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 12:47 pm
    I see nath is still waving and yelling “look at me!” From the sidelines. Sad nath. Truly sad.
    ______________________________________
    Jen your obsession with me has gotten to worrying proportions. I’m definitely not reading your novels now. I don’t want to cultivate this compulsion to seek me out. I never even talk to you, but you cannot refrain from talking about me. Your amour fou is not reciprocated.

  19. Ifonly @ #556 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 1:04 pm

    The Morgan poll probably will worry Labor. The last Morgan Poll before the last election was I believe was in May 2016 and was 51% to Labor. Morgan used to rely more on face-t0-face. This skews the result because when a young person in jeans and t-shirt ask you how you want to vote there is a number of people who want to relate to the pollster rather than appear a heartless tory so they answer Green or Labor regardless of how they will actually vote. In general it is a 1-2% shift. If this was a phone poll then less of an issue.

    Absolute crap.

  22. I would be surprised if Morgan didn’t attempt to ask people of all walks of life, instead of just young people on the street as being suggested here.
    That would make the poll pretty useless, but the numbers in the poll look pretty consistent with the rest.

  28. A perhaps dumb question for you political marketing experts.

    As someone who has little acquaintance with social media (I’ve had a P.C. since 1981 but I’ve never sent a text), is there any way to get a sense of where we are going from an analysis of what is on social media?

    Is there an algorithm that can figure out what people are thinking on the election by scanning social media posts on Facebook or Google for example?

  30. @ifonly

    The last Morgan before the election was 0% more favourable to labor than the Newspoll taken at the same time.

    There is nothing to suggest Morgan biases to labor.

  31. Eric Holthaus
    @EricHolthaus

    At the moment, our planet’s sea ice is in record low territory.

    There’s almost a total lack of ice around Alaska, and Antarctica is missing a huge chunk too. Since we started measuring closely, there’s never been a month of May like this.

  32. @beguiledagain people would tell you how its possible, and doable, and being done.
    It is the entire basis of modern targeting advertising. As to its real effectiveness or accuracy, that’s another story

  33. I’ve been following the election closely and am convinced Labor will outperform Newspoll. It’s only a question of how much. Putting my money on 80+ seats with 85+ not being out of the question. I also Trust Laura Tingle’s analysis. She’s one of the few real journos we have left in this country.

    The Libs are defeated, and they know it. Don’t panic.

  34. Dan

    Yep, I think the volunteers might have got the boundaries wrong. They are pretty close (1/2km) to Grayndler.

  36. Nicko
    I was not suggesting that they ask people on the street. There method used to be to pay people to start at a randomly selected address and then move down the street (always going left), finish the block then cross the street etc.

    Those carrying out the poll on behalf of Morgans worked on a Saturday or Sunday. The pay was not high and there was a significantly higher proportion of younger people doing the door-to-door eg uni students after extra cash.

    Face-t0-face polling is more like a conversation and participants are more likely to reflect what they think are the opinions of those asking the questions ie some percentage of those being interviewed want to be relatable. If the interviewers are mature and in a business suit the answers will skew one way, if they are young and in jeans and T-shirt it will skew the other.

    Morgans used to try and get around that by having the person interviewed fill out a “ballot paper” that was placed in a cardboard voting box but still historically Morgan polls favoured the left over actual results.

  38. I’ve actually done one of Morgan’s face to face polls and I didn’t feel the need to skew my answers to the interviewer at all. I answered honestly and as accurately as I could.

  40. Whens the last time a Morgan poll showed a more favorable rating to Labor then other polls?
    It isn’t showing it now, newspoll doesn’t look much different to it

  42. Bonham says that if anything recent Morgans have had a slight pro-Coalition lean but it’s hard to say because of how inconsistently they publish and various other things.

    I wouldn’t give Morgan polls much credence.

  43. Re social media… Some people had a social media algorithm which predicted Trump’s victory upon which they trumpeted it with great fanfare, but from memory it has failed dismally to predict a bunch of other elections.

  44. beguiledagain

    It must have been bizarre to see the greatest “October Surprise” ever fail to move the dial.

    And then I always imagine how McGovern and all the people who had worked in that election would have felt as it all unravelled in slow motion over the next eighteen months.

  45. I’m sure WB might like the rest if we declare a PB blackout till 9am next Sunday. Those confident PBers can enjoy some time off and the hand wringers can , well, wring their hands.
    At 9am Sunday we can let loose with everything we’ve got.

  46. Lol. One of the main reasons Albo is giving for not voting for the Coalition:
    * You don’t want to see Scott Morrison’s smug grin on the TV for the next 3 years. 😆

  47. BK

    Is Shorten’s crazy tax on our beloved Utes creating jobs already? Morrison says it will destroy our economy.

  49. Morrison flaunts his particular brand of religion and gets upset if an awkward issue is raised.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has hit back at Opposition Leader Bill Shorten in an argument over whether gay people will go to hell, after both leaders fielded questions about Christian faith and gay rights.

    Mr Morrison accused Mr Shorten of a “cheap shot” over the question on Tuesday and made it clear he did not believe that gay people would go to hell, one day after giving a less direct answer to the question.

    The Prime Minister issued the statement one day after being asked about his personal beliefs while campaigning in Perth on Monday, giving a response that led Mr Shorten to warn against the “madness of division and toxicity” in the election debate on social questions.

    The matter of personal belief arose on Monday when a journalist put the following question to Mr Morrison: “What’s your belief, do gay people go to hell?”

    Mr Morrison replied: “I support the law of the country and I always don’t mix my religion with politics and my faith with politics.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/govern-for-all-shorten-takes-aim-at-morrison-over-gays-going-to-hell-20190514-p51n3k.html

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