Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019

Aggregated state breakdowns from Newspoll suggest solid swings in Victoria and Queensland will tip a close result in Labor’s favour.

No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.

The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.

Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.

Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019”

  1. I’ve incorporated the Newspoll breakdowns into BludgerTrack, for a net gain of two seat for the Coalition. They’re up two in New South Wales and one in Queensland, but down one in Victoria.

  2. 4 front pages to go for the Daily ToiletPaper to deliver the rumoured slander bucket on Bill Shorten, after today’s pathetic and confusing effort…

  3. The Sydney Morning Herald is a bit more balanced today – Shorten gets the Rock star treatment, whilst Scotty makes another desperate Captain’s Call…

  4. Strange no essential poll ,when considering in the week of the 2016 federal election

    they had one on Tuesday and election day morning

  5. Re the first home owners policy.

    Last yesterday Morrison ramped it up by suggesting it could be open ended and not just capped at $ 500 million ( approx 10000 loans ).

    This gives labor a good out as the policy unravels. Labor could commit to the “ modest” $500 million limit and refuse to go any further. A bit of fiscal responsibility and a contrast to the Morrison open ended grab for votes.

    Cheers.

  6. William Bowe @ #2 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 4:19 am

    I’ve incorporated the Newspoll breakdowns into BludgerTrack, for a net gain of two seat for the Coalition. They’re up two in New South Wales and one in Queensland, but down one in Victoria.

    Is that really the right thing to do since the breakdowns are based on existing polls? Or do you delete the existing polls and replace them with these new figures?

  7. The number of seats the libs/nats will lose, the recent 2016 election day result is the more accurate indication
    if the opinion polls are accurate that the libs/nats combined primary vote is around 38%

    With a 4% decline of the libs/nats combined primary vote , the libs/nats will lose far more than 15 seats

    2013- 2016 the libs/nats lost 14 seats with 3.5% decline in the primary vote

  8. Don’t think that intense nsw state election , despite the libs/nats retaining government

    The libs/nats still lost seats including 2 to Labor , going to be a similar situation in the federal election

    the libs/nats will likely lose seats to independents and Labor , despite nsw being good for Libs/nats

  9. The differential between the national and state figures in the Newspoll aggregate has been applied for each Newspoll published through the relevant period, i.e. April and May. This only affects how the votes are distributed among the states – the national voting intention result is exactly as it was before.

  10. @Dan

    Yup and also making it a non issue ScoMo is forced to make up something else, something else that will cost $$$$

    As long as Labor doesn’t follow ScoMo at every turn

  11. Election Day biggest wish, aside from the obvious of a Shorten Labor government?

    Greens to gain Ryan. Would drive my father in law nuts.

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Shane Wright tells us that a $500 million plan to help first-home buyers into the market did not go through cabinet and has not been modelled for its impact on property prices, as experts warn the policy will struggle to meet its objectives. Now who would have thought?
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/controversial-policy-to-help-first-home-buyers-did-not-go-through-cabinet-20190513-p51mtg.html
    And Elizabeth Knight explains why the big banks don’t care about this first-home buyer stunt.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/why-big-banks-don-t-care-about-the-first-home-buyer-stunt-20190513-p51mvg.html
    The AFR says Morrison’s first home buyer plan is flawed.
    https://www.outline.com/gFxjMb
    Greg Jericho is scornful of the scheme.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/may/14/a-government-with-few-ideas-offers-a-rinky-dink-first-home-scheme-on-the-run
    The brutal truth on housing is that someone has to lose in order for first homebuyers to win.
    https://theconversation.com/the-brutal-truth-on-housing-someone-has-to-lose-in-order-for-first-homebuyers-to-win-117010
    David Crowe reports that in a new campaign on wages, Bill Shorten intends to scrap the federal government’s submission on the minimum wage and lodge a new proposal to boost pay packets as soon as July 1 under a Labor government.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/shorten-to-press-for-higher-wages-on-the-first-day-if-he-wins-power-20190513-p51mxg.html
    Jacqui Maley writes about John Howard’s zingers while in Warringah.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-took-john-howard-just-one-minute-to-deliver-the-campaign-s-most-potent-attack-on-bill-shorten-20190513-p51mvs.html
    Ross Gittins trumpets that a new federal government needs to release its econocrats from the ever-more dubious proposition that nothing in the economy has changed and we’ll soon be back to the old normal. The Treasury has become highly politicised, he says And the RBA is going along with it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/let-s-stop-kidding-ourselves-the-old-normal-is-just-around-the-corner-20190512-p51mhe.html
    Shane Wright sort of agrees.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/budget-and-economy-heading-for-another-universe-20190513-p51mo1.html
    Andrew Leigh expounds on Labor’s plan for office.
    https://www.outline.com/TTeGRc
    Richard Denniss iso of the opinion that reducing the disposable income of high income earners, who save a lot, and spending more on nurses and child care workers, who spend the most, will boost GDP.
    https://www.outline.com/8m8F7V
    Here’s a comprehensive guide to the policies of the major parties.
    https://theconversation.com/compare-the-pair-key-policy-offerings-from-labor-and-the-coalition-in-the-2019-federal-election-116898
    Neil McMahon reviews last night’s Q and A. I think I mage the right decision to give it a miss.
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/he-is-wrong-coalition-minister-rebukes-john-howard-in-last-chance-q-and-a-20190514-p51mz2.html
    Former Victorian A-G writes that after this election there will be a brief window for a constructive national dialogue aimed at redesigning our federal system to improve delivery of services and better align responsibilities and powers across that system.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/after-the-election-this-is-the-reform-we-need-to-focus-on-most-20190510-p51lzg.html
    David Crowe tells us that Julia Banks is preparing legal action against conservative group Advance Australia after it branded her a “bully” in an advertising campaign across the crucial Victorian seat of Flinders.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/julia-banks-to-sue-conservative-activists-over-bully-claim-20190513-p51mw5.html
    Labor’s $1.5 billion plan to “unlock” Northern Territory and Queensland gas would create far more emissions in Australia than Adani’s coal mine, making it much tougher for a Shorten government to meet the nation’s Paris climate goals.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-s-1-5b-plan-to-unlock-gas-would-create-more-emissions-than-adani-coal-mine-experts-say-20190513-p51mwa.html
    And Nicole Hasham reports that Labor will not commit to topping up the Green Climate Fund, suggesting it may ditch the foreign aid measure despite the urging of Pacific leaders.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-backs-away-from-vocal-backing-of-world-s-biggest-climate-fund-20190513-p51ms8.html
    Dana McCauley writes that Labor’s promise to fix the aged care system would cost billions of dollars, the peak body for the sector says as Bill Shorten approaches the May 18 election with questions hanging over the price tag for the party’s reforms.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-s-promise-to-fix-aged-care-would-cost-billions-peak-body-20190513-p51mt4.html
    The AFR reckons we have an election with a South Australian sting in the tail.
    https://www.outline.com/Xf5Grk
    Modelling by BAEconomics that has been used to attack Labor’s climate policies is a “complete outlier” according to an analysis of more than 20 other recent modelling exercises on the effect of higher climate targets on the economy and electricity sector.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/14/climate-modelling-used-to-attack-labor-policies-a-complete-outlier-analysis-finds
    Scott Morrison has credited his government with having “saved” the Great Barrier Reef, a claim rejected as “ridiculous” by scientists, environmental groups and the Queensland government.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/13/scott-morrisons-claim-coalition-saved-great-barrier-reef-condemned-as-ridiculous
    According to Sam Maiden Labor believes it has finally found the “killer ad” to prosecute the Liberal Party’s inaction on climate change and connect with younger voters in the final days of the campaign.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/05/13/labor-attack-ad-climate-change/
    The buck apparently doesn’t stop with Pauline Hanson, as the fallout from her party’s latest scandal rolls on, led by the misogyny of the men she picks to represent her. Chloe Koffman explains.
    https://newmatilda.com/2019/05/13/dont-cry-for-pauline-because-pauline-is-the-problem/
    The Labor and Liberal candidates in Chisholm, a crucial Victorian seat both have connections with organisations supported by the Chinese Communist Party.
    https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/china-s-activities-in-key-marginal-seat-affect-labor-liberal-candidates-20190510-p51lzf.html
    A great dummy spit from Peter FitzSimons on Clive Palmer.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/the-most-difficult-question-of-all-on-election-day-20190513-p51mq6.html
    Yesterday more horror stories emerged during the aged care royal commission.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/fighting-to-breathe-no-staff-member-in-sight-aged-care-royal-commission-hears-vera-s-story-20190513-p51mw1.html
    Cara Waters with yet another franchising rip-off.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/painful-and-stressful-swim-school-franchisees-chase-refunds-20190513-p51mqx.html
    Fury over water allocations has led irrigators in south-eastern Australia to file a class action in the New South Wales supreme court, seeking $750m in damages from the federal government’s Murray-Darling Basin Authority.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/14/murray-darling-irrigators-file-class-action-seeking-750m-from-basin-authority
    Swedish prosecutors will reopen their rape investigation into Julian Assange.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2019/05/13/julian-assange-rape-investigation/
    Sam maiden tells us that welfare groups have slammed a “scare campaign” by real estate agents across Australia, who are warning tenants that Labor’s negative gearing policy will send rents soaring and lift the unemployment rate.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/05/13/negative-gearing-scare/
    The imminent publication of a definitive catalogue of celebrated artist Brett Whiteley’s work has cast doubts over the provenance of another of his paintings, in a fresh scandal that could wipe millions from the value of some art investments. Some investors will get their fingers burnt!
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/art-and-design/whiteley-painting-bought-for-1-5-million-is-bathed-in-doubt-20190513-p51mxe.html
    The US/China trade war is looking ominous.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-retaliates-with-tariffs-in-defiance-of-trump-warning-20190513-p51myw.html
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-situation-is-as-bad-as-it-could-be-wall-street-dives-as-us-china-trade-war-escalates-20190514-p51mz8.html
    Peter Hartcher writes that Trump has China on the defensive.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/trump-has-china-on-the-defensive-20190513-p51mq1.html
    But Stephen Bartholomeusz says markets are confused, unable to decipher whether last week’s trade negotiations between the US and China have broken down irretrievably or whether it’s just another hiccup in the process.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/trump-and-the-rest-of-the-world-is-confused-about-where-the-us-china-trade-talks-stand-20190513-p51mrg.html
    This reporter had not been barred from attending a public meeting in two decades of journalism but it finally happened. Michael West reports on the sneaky push to exempt a Chinese-owned tax avoider from the National Gas Rules and foist a $2.7 billion cost onto Australian gas customers while opening up vast new tracts of land for fracking.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/gas-deal-a-massive-transfer-of-wealth-from-gas-customers-to-china-and-singapore/
    Today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week” goes to a heavy from The Finks.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/finks-bikie-gang-president-arrested-over-alleged-drug-supply-network-20190513-p51muk.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Cathy Wilcox sees through Morrison’s housing scheme.

    As does David Rowe.

    And David Pope!

    Pope has a good crack at Palmer.

    From matt Golding.



    Two contributions from John Shakespeare.


    More apt poetry from Mark David.

    Zanetti couldn’t go for long before pulling out the CFMEU thug.

    But this one’s reasonable.

    Nice work from Alan Moir on News Corp.

    Jon Kudelka and the housing policy.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ac9890be891261f15f82ffb47c982da9?width=1024

    From the US.






  13. I find it hard to believe that Labor has gone backwards in NSW on these figures. Still, if that’s the case, let’s hope the swings elsewhere are enough to get the seats required.

  14. Itep,

    No need for labor to complain about the scheme. All they need to do is confirm they will cap it at the announced $500 million and let Morrison roll on.

    Morrison announced this for headlines. The details are secondary to him.

    Cheers.

  15. Lynchpin says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 6:57 am
    I find it hard to believe that Labor has gone backwards in NSW on these figures. Still, if that’s the case, let’s hope the swings elsewhere are enough to get the seats required.

    —————–

    1% favour to the libs/nats is not much , they are likely to lose 5 or more seats , to independents and Labor combined

  16. Labor going after missing in action Mellisa Price

    I wish I can put up the photo of “Where in the world is – Melisa Price” from their Facebook page.

  17. Campaign
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison will begin the day in Adelaide while Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will kick off his day in Launceston.

    12:45 PM
    Former Prime Minister John Howard will join government Minister and Hasluck MP Ken Wyatt on the campaign trail in Perth.

  18. Trump’s trade war is going well. Just about everybody foresaw this.

    Wall Street shares sank after China defied Washington by announcing retaliatory tariffs, the latest salvo in the two countries’ increasingly belligerent trade dispute, sending investors fleeing equities for less risky assets.

    MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe shed 1.90 per cent, its biggest one-day drop in more than five months as it touched a two-month low.

    China said it would impose higher tariffs on a range of US goods, striking back in its trade war with Washington shortly after President Donald Trump warned it not to retaliate in the long-running trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-14/wall-street-shares-sink-as-china-announces-retaliatory-tariffs/11109650

  19. Wow, The Daily Telegraph are really getting desperate when they have to try to criticise Labor for a pro business policy.

  20. Listening to Chris Bowen on AM now, I get the impression there’s not a chance in hell Labor will implement this first home buyer policy if they get in.

  21. “Hopefully the improved numbers for the Coalition in NSW are in their safe seats. ”

    I suspect a lot of it will be in Banks, Reid, Robertson, Lindsay and … Gilmour.

    Sacrebleu!

  22. China said it would impose higher tariffs on a range of US goods, striking back in its trade war with Washington shortly after President Donald Trump warned it not to retaliate in the long-running trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies.

    When I read things like this I can only think that Donald Trump is suffering from a severe case of megalomania. Why should China do anything he tells them to?

  23. OMG Bowen’s sign off on the AM interview was gold. Sabra called him “Mr Morrison” and he said “Oh Sabra, it was a robust interview but I didn’t think it was that bad.”

  24. simon holmes à court

    8m8 minutes ago

    when actually was the last time the environment minister @Melissa4Durack gave an interview?

    (nb. @ScottMorrisonMP has said she’ll absolutely stay in the portfolio if he’s returned as PM.) #ausvotes

  25. When I read things like this I can only think that Donald Trump is suffering from a severe case of megalomania. Why should China do anything he tells them to?

    Not content with screwing over US soybean farmers, Trump wants American consumers to be punished as well!

  26. Scott Morrison is calling on independent candidates to put their cards on the table and declare which side they would back in the event of a hung parliament, The Australian reports. Morrison last night said it was “reasonable and fair” to ask, because “you never know what you’re going to get”, referring to independents challenging Liberal strongholds unlikely to go to Labor.
    “People vote for an independent thinking they’ll respect the wishes of their local electorate ultimately about who should form a government, and they end up going and putting the Labor Party in,” Morrison said, repeating fears stoked by Peta Credlin

    Peta Credlin is an ever present danger to democracy. I think she has a twisted mind.

  27. Got to say. Those annoying, misleading and repetitive liberal attack ads are effective: by characterising the reversal of tax expenditures and concessions as “taxes that affect everyone” the filth have been able to con a much broader cross section than the narrow and rich actually affected. The switch to the lie that Labor’s spending will be paid for by future Australians is a ‘nice’ touch at the end. Labor has been anemic in countering this. Maybe the ad man is the same political genius that Trump is.

  28. Morning all. The Higgins poll explains why we have heard so little from Frydenberg. Even if half true he is fighting for survival.

    This Guardian piece helps separate the facts from ScumMo’s lies about Labor policy. Of eight tax reforms, only one is a new tax. Yet ScumMo lies shamelessly that all eight are new taxes. Ending rorts are not new taxes.

    I think the reaction against Labor’s badly needed reforms exposes that, in tax as in parliamentary expenses, a strong sense of entitlement has emerged in the part of wealthy Australians not paying any tax.

    No doubt, some of the worst users of these rorts are in the Liberal cabinet. US politicians often file their tax records. If Australian politicians did! I wonder how much tax a Dutton, Taylor or Hockey would have paid?

  29. I guess the thing that depresses me most about Australia at the moment is the fact that a ‘Party’ that is bereft of vision, plans & goals; that delights in tearing down our environment our social constructs & our identity, and a party that is in conflict with itself, is still in with a chance.
    That almost 40% of the population believe they should be re-elected is hard to accept.

    So, i will keep on with the wishful thinking and stick with my 91+ seats on Saturday, just in case my fellow Australians prove me wrong.

  30. Dan G:

    As Trump once boasted, he could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and gun people down, and STILL his base would support him.

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