No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.
The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.
Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.
Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.
Bludgertrack is getting mighty close to indicating a hung parliament!
Newspoll has come in substantially over recent months:
Feb – 53, 53 [TPP for Labor]
Mar – 54
Apr – 52, 52, 51
May – 51, 51
Fess,
Especially if the people he gunned down had dark coloured skin.
That’s a fair point for Morrison to make and for Credlin to note: however, Julia Banks, Wilkie and Oakshot aside I think the battle ones are pretty clear: Sharkie, Katter, Zali and Phelps will support the lnp for supply. Brandt says he will support labor.
ScoMo is within his rights to put the acid on Banks, Wilkie and oakshot. I’d like to know where they stand myself.
Bloody hell – last night was very Poll Bludger After Dark…..
Everyone feel a bit calmer this morning?
“Bloody hell – last night was very Poll Bludger After Dark…..
Everyone feel a bit calmer this morning?”
No. I’m planning on moving to NZ.
The thing that gets me is how willing people are to believe obvious lies from the Coalition in the election campaign.
Jesus A_E… step back from the ledge…
The breakdowns accord a little with what I was hearing (namely that Victoria and Queensland are looking good for Labor but not really anywhere else). I’m still hopeful but prepared for another long 3 years…
Anyway, my prediction for the election result is that Labor will get over the line in a majority but only a small one as the people give Bill Shorten and Labor a go for 3 years. A try before they buy next time scenario.
At this point the idea of uniform swings across states is even sillier than the efficient market hypothesis.
I suspect the Coalition is getting a significant swing within its own safer seats that are not “climate change seats” for lack of a better term. Nobody is publicly polling them but it suggested by other data. Echo chambers that believe guff like the death tax claims.
C@t
Don’t forget that most people don’t really take much interest in politics (“they’re all the same”) and only take notice when there is a threat to their income. Or they latch on to a single thought (“stop Adani”). It’s only people like us who dive behind the headlines for the details.
“Jesus A_E… step back from the ledge…”
I’ve always liked Napier. Art Deco. Coffee shops. Surf. Wineries. La Doce Vita.
Today’s on line Oz is something to behold – virtually every article and opinion piece is an attack ad against Labor. They are panicing.
Hopefully Victoria is going to save the rest of the nation from itself. If all else fails, Dutton and Abbott losing their seats might make the difference. I expect the Greens and labor vote is going to be higher than anticipated because of the number of yong people enrolled and possibly missed by traditional polling methods.
I am very happy for them to keep pushing the idea that this election is down to the wire – because I don’t think it is. Labor really need to push the “We can’t afford three more years like the last six years” message in the closing days.
there are quite a few people that take very little notice of politics ever.
They see the nasty tax flyers in the mail, take a quick glance and chuck em.
They think , more tax , bad.
Orange Crush retaliates further!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/05/13/trump-warns-china-not-retaliate-tariffs-insists-they-wont-hurt-us-consumers/?utm_term=.869b97b649cc
It is a very obvious statement that every election is a seat by seat battle. Some ups and some downs. Never uniform. Surprises always happen.
This election is, even more so, coming down to a seat by seat battle and the party with the most organised and effective ground campaign will win.
No election result is uniform across the country and no election result is uniform in individual states.
This election is particularly a down in the trenches battle of attrition.
It was never going to be a huge win for labor. They just do not happen. Anyone expecting a 55-45 or such win has been fooling themselves.
Four days to go and the effective and targeted labor campaign will roll on.
Cheers.
In Bludgertrack I trust.
This close to the election, I think the pollbludger poll tracker is the most reliable guess for the final outcome on Saturday night.
So, Labor to get 79 +/- 3 seats. The errors are all mine, and I think it would be closer to +/- 2 seats, but in this case you round your errors up, not down. Error overestimated according to Gaussian statistics, but I have yet to see a convincing argument about why the error distribution at this election is Gaussian.
Worst case, Labor get 76. They will still form government, and I am more than happy to take that as a big win.
lizzie @ #63 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 7:52 am
Yes, but you’ve also got to hope that there are enough serious, thoughtful voters out there to balance the equation, and you’d maybe be surprised to find out that there are. At least according to my observations at the Pre Polls.
“there are quite a few people that take very little notice of politics ever.
They see the nasty tax flyers in the mail, take a quick glance and chuck em.
They think , more tax , bad.”
But but but Guytaur has told us all that people want more taxes.
And that neoliberalism is dead & telling ordinary folk ‘the truth’ (more taxes are good and the fossil fuel industry you work in, or are somehow associated with is dead and you are obliged to simply muck in and vote greens or labor) is good politics because it’s worked so well for President Sanders and Prime Minister Corbyn.
Look at the Liberal campaign launch…the guys with the real inside information.
Winners are grinners.
@confessions
Americans are dumb as …..
From Mark David.
Thanks BK for today’s Dawn Patrol.
🐘Elephant Stamp
🥇 Best and Fairest
🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
Love the cartoons. Hate the Horrible Aged Care Stories. (Perpetrators).
One thing about this election, it must be among the least polled elections in recent times.
A narrow win for Labor is fucked. It represents complete gridlock for the next 3 years, unless labor is willing to do dirty deals that are inconsistent with its election platform. Labor will be blamed for that and the tanking economy that they will be powerless to do anything about, given their straightjacket.
Plus the ‘Bill has questions to answer’ meme will get a redux and there will be Leadershit CPG stories wall to wall from day one.
Fuck it: I do love a good Hawkes Bay wine. Check y’all later.
Zoidlord,
… Australians?
On the plus side, even a minority Labor government will have huge opportunities to start inquiries into the many dubious business dealings of Liberals and Nats in recent years. And the scare campaigns will turn out to be false. Public opinion might not be so blind in three years.
Anomalies between Bludgeterack and Ladbrokes odds for NSW
Punters have Libs favorite to retake Lindsay (current 1.1% margin)
Punters have ALP favorite to take Reid (4.7%), Gilmor (0.7%), Robertson (1.1%)
So Ladbrokes have a net +2 as compared to Bludgertrack for NSW
To take Roberston (edit) and Gilmore (next two on bludgertrack) would require a straight line 2PP of 52.6% to ALP in NSW
Reid is a bit of a surprise…
Narrow win is fine. Don’t set an artificially high bar.
A_E, get yourself a mug of concrete. Win or lose, we will all need it. If Labor win, there is a very long, hard, ugly fight ahead to fix up the mess left by the incompetence and mismanagement of the previous six years. If we lose … well, the struggle continues.
FWIW I think we will roll straight over them. ALP 91 seats, Coalition 50 seats, cross bench 10 seats. (Alright it ignores all the facts WB presents with his careful polling analysis. You can have your facts WB! I’ll have my own reality.)
Last night Sportsbet suspended betting on the Coalition, suggesting perhaps a betting plunge. Well, it seems nothing happened, the odds are back to what they were yesterday – 1.14 (Labor) to 5.50 (Coal).
‘The mood has turned’: Prized seat of Higgins on a knife-edge as Liberal vote heads south
The Liberal Party is sandbagging one of its most-prized seats amid growing fears that a backlash fuelled by women and young voters could deliver it to Labor for the first time in history.
The government holds the affluent inner-Melbourne seat of Higgins on a margin of 7.4 per cent, but both major parties say the retirement of sitting MP Kelly O’Dwyer, an influx of young residents and concerns about leadership instability and climate change have dragged the Liberal Party’s primary vote below 50 per cent, putting it at risk of a shock loss.
Internal opposition polling recently placed the Coalition just ahead of Labor by about 51 to 49 per cent on a two-party preferred basis – a sharp fall from the healthy 58-42 per cent margin Ms O’Dwyer secured at the 2016 election.
Ms O’Dwyer, the Jobs and Industrial Relations Minister who took over the seat from Peter Costello, is using her profile and connections to support the campaign of Liberal candidate Katie Allen. The Liberal Party has also had access to the $500,000 war chest the cabinet minister and leading moderate amassed through recent fundraising.
Labor ran dead during the 2016 election, allowing the Greens to finish second. But in a sign of confidence it has a shot in 2019, Labor dumped its previous endorsed candidate in March and replaced him with high-profile barrister and former Law Council of Australia president Fiona McLeod, igniting a three-cornered contest between Labor, the Liberals, and the Greens’ Jason Ball.
Ms McLeod will introduce Mr Shorten at a rally on Sunday and had shadowed the leader whenever he has campaigned in Melbourne.
Asked on Saturday whether he could win Higgins – which includes Melbourne’s richest suburb of Toorak – Mr Shorten replied: “Something is going on in Victoria. People don’t want more of the same with the government.”
To have a chance of victory, Labor would need to come second on first preferences and the Liberal primary vote would need to fall from 52 per cent to below 45.
Liberal sources said “the mood has turned” in the electorate over the last two months. They were also struck by how many early voters – particularly those in their late 30s and 40s – had made up their minds and respectfully told volunteers they liked Ms O’Dwyer and Dr Allen but could not vote Liberal, citing the party’s approach to women, climate change and the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull.
While enrolment statistics show an 11.6 per cent increase in the number of voters aged 70 or older in Higgins since the 2016 election, there has also been sizeable increase in the number of voters aged below 40.
The number of voters aged 18-19 increased by 13.1 per cent over the past three years, driven by the same-sex marriage plebiscite. There are nearly 600 extra voters aged between 20-24, and 860 extra between 40-44.
Ms Allen, a paediatrician, contested the Greens-held seat of Prahran at the November state election but was caught up in a whopping swing against the Liberals in affluent suburbs and fell short. State Labor recorded double-digit swings in some of the state seats in and around Higgins.
Ms O’Dwyer has strongly backed her replacement in a series of paid Facebook ads targeting voters.
“She’s been caring for our community but now she will be that strong voice for us in Canberra,” Ms O’Dwyer says in the ad.
Mr Ball said the Greens had run a strong ground campaign for many months and Labor was playing catch-up.
“It’s great they are finally paying attention to the seat, but my estimate is it may be too little too late,” he said.
“I have been hearing today – and ever since voting started – that people are saying climate change is their number-one issue, and Labor and the Liberals are both not doing anywhere near enough on that.”
In addition to Higgins, the opposition believes it had a chance in the Liberal-held seats of Deakin and La Trobe and is confident it will win Corangamite, Dunkley and Chisholm.
Ffs – If the win isn’t big and government isn’t easy, I’m out?
Come on. And let’s be honest – if the economy slides and Labor is in power (probably my biggest concern all the way along) – the Libs will blame them anyway.
While my 81 seat prediction stands, I’ll take a majority. Pure and simple.
I second Andrew_Earlwood getting himself a schooner of HTFU!
Very impressive kick back by Rob Oakshotte against his nationals opponent in Cowper.
https://www.oakeshott.com.au/desperate_national_party_candidate_reaches_for_the_mud_bucket_rob_oakeshott_independent_for_cowper
lizzie @ #63 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 7:52 am
I think I convinced mum and dad to vote Labor this time around because they believe they are better of the two.
ScoMo is doing policy on the run right now.
Thanks Joanne. I know you mean well, but I’m getting my grieving in early. That way I won’t be distracted when I pack for NZ next week.
Hey Bug1,
You have been on to Laddies lately, obviously
What does it say about Qld?
Reid is a bit of a surprise…
It’s because Sam Crosby is such a lovely guy. And smart too.
@Tonyburke
Given the announcement on the weekend was for an extra $40m for scripted drama, comedy, children’s content and music; I wonder which part of that he views as political coverage…
Did ScoMo did another policy run?
C@tmomma says,
‘The thing that gets me is how willing people are to believe obvious lies from the Coalition in the election campaign.’
The thing that gets me is how willing the ALP is just to let all of it go unchallenged.
Even a narrow win is bad for the Liberals, because of the crossbench.
It isn’t a case of Labor wins 76 seats and the Liberals win 75. It’s Labor wins 76 seats and the Liberals win 68.
I bet there were ‘Labor stalwarts’ who thought Menzies would never lose an election and would rule Australia until he died. Same for John Howard.
Oh, ye of little faith.
Libs conceding they can’t win in their own right and need Indies to form Government. This could be the signal for the undecideds to back Labor so as a hung Parliament can be avoided.
https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1125887052518699008/noMZP1zh?format=jpg&name=600×314
$30,000 in ATM FEES:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/30-000-on-atm-fees-palm-island-bank-customers-highlight-indigenous-finance-problems-20190418-p51fcz.html
‘Narrow win is fine. Don’t set an artificially high bar.’
At this stage a win seems an artificially high bar.
“Socrates says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 8:04 am
On the plus side, even a minority Labor government will have huge opportunities to start inquiries into the many dubious business dealings of Liberals and Nats in recent years. And the scare campaigns will turn out to be false. Public opinion might not be so blind in three years.”
Being in government also means having power to make many executive decisions that do not require Parliamentary approval, as shown by the LNP in the recent past.
mundo – do tell, if you think the media is so in the tank for the LNP, who will report the retorts? A new ad every day that corrects but also reinforces the Lib lie?
Labor isn’t doing it because it won’t work.
I am going off the accurate trend of them all the last 2 federal election results
2013 Libs/nats combined primary vote 45.6% = 90 seats
2016 Libs/nats combined primary vote 42.1% = 76 seats
2019 If the libs/nats combined primary vote is under 40%= Libs/nats lose 20+ seats
shows there is no contest Labor wins with a reasonable majority over 90 seats