Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019

Aggregated state breakdowns from Newspoll suggest solid swings in Victoria and Queensland will tip a close result in Labor’s favour.

No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.

The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.

Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.

Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019”

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  1. Fozzie Logic

    The Liberal Party is sandbagging one of its most-prized seats amid growing fears that a backlash fuelled by women and young voters

    A good larf for me last night was watching the slimey Grahame Morris explain one of the reasons for his prediction of a Coalition victory was the strong support of ‘wimmin’ .

  2. ‘Libs conceding they can’t win in their own right and need Indies to form Government. This could be the signal for the undecideds to back Labor so as a hung Parliament can be avoided.’

    Or?

    For the undecideds to pile on the coalition vote to avoid a hung parliament.

  4. Anyway, I’m off to do Pre Poll handing out HTVs for Labor. I can’t afford to move to New Zealand. And the nation can’t afford another 3 years of kleptocratic and environmentally-abusive Coalition government.

  7. From the Debate. Michelle Grattan doesn’t appreciate Morrison’s shoot from the hip style.

    The second, very different, notable moment was Scott Morrison declaring Melissa Price would be environment minister if he were re-elected.

    Shorten continued to hold out on nominating who’d be his home affairs minister, saying this is a matter for after the election. But when Mr Morrison was asked “will you keep the same environment minister?” he immediately said “yes” (prompting Shorten to quip about the invisible minister, “where is she?”).

    Mr Morrison’s answer might seem at first blush to be a small point. But it highlights how he says and does things for immediate needs or advantage, rather than worrying about the longer term.

    He may not, if the polls are right, be forming a new ministry later this month. But if he is, Ms Price should not be in his cabinet, and he knows it. In the debate, he should have avoided a commitment.

    But it was the same recently, when he promised that Linda Reynolds, whom he was promoting to the defence industry job — a perfectly sensible appointment — would get the defence portfolio in a re-elected government.

    He did not have to give that undertaking, and should have kept his options open.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-09/federal-election-2019-third-debate-two-moments/11095438

  11. I suspect the weakness of polls to predict seats numbers will be exposed this election due to more extreme targeting of specific seats, especially ministers, by groups like Getup, Unions, stop-Adani etc.

    Bludgertrack takes into account national and state swings, incumbency (or not), and comes up with with George Christensen holding Dawson by 0.5%, it cant take into account the personal baggage he has collected in the last 3 years which is being aired. Betting markets can.

    (not meant as a slight against your excellent work WB)

  12. There is no chance of a hung parliament

    The current Libs/nats are already in a minority , they need to gain 3 or 4 extra seats on top of what they hold, it is not going to happen with the libs/nats combined primary vote under 40%

    currently the Libs/nats hold 73 seats with a combined primary vote of 42.1%

  15. I will never understand people who give up at the first sign of resistance. Guess what Australian elections are tough and often very close.

    If it’s worth it, it’s worth fighting for.

    Yes, most here think the Tories deserve a 55-45 and 25+ seat loss, but it was never happening. Labor simply doesn’t have the territory to generate those sorts of wins.

    But to me, a win is a win.

  17. Birmo “our government is a government for climate change”. Really? The prime minister waved a lump of coal around in parliament and the world laughed at us

    What really disgusts me is how the LNP lies that black is white just to hold on to power, but they never change their beliefs and actions after the election. Prime example is Abbott’s “No cuts…” speech.

  19. Kim Jong un still has control of Twitter.

    ?? Check your Twitter/browser settings; I suspect you have selected a Korean timezone by mistake.

  20. There will not be any hung parliament current seat projection is like 80+

    Unless something actually happens entirely different between now and Saturday night I predict Labor will win, question is how much by, it will be a majority.

    Just not sure by how much by.

    Oh yes I put money where my mouth is on betfair already.

  21. Andrew Earlwood,

    Thanks Joanne. I know you mean well, but I’m getting my grieving in early. That way I won’t be distracted when I pack for NZ next week.

    I am on your side. The statistics are by far and away our best indicator as to what the final election result will be.

    If they are wrong, I will be chuffed, but in the past the polls averaged for the 4 weeks before an election have given a good idea of where the TPP will fall.

    Labor will just have to deal with it, and be very well-prepared and very smart to counter a hostile media and a hostile senate, with a majority of about 2.

    Can they do this? It will be hard. While there are many voices supporting the Coalition in the media, I cannot think of a single news organisation that is favourable to Labor – and that is fine – we only want truth – but it does skew the playing field.

    Also, the EU beckons for me..

  23. J341983

    A victory for me will be if some of the worst dinosaurs lose their seats. Not only the coal lovers, but also the welfare bullies. And Peter Dutton.

  24. @StopAdani

    A Warringah voter just asked Tony Abbott to apologise to local students for his $100 bet that “the climate will not change in 10 years”. His response? You guessed it: more climate change denial! #ausvotes  #warringahvotes #StopAdani #ClimateElection

  25. The government and the opposition and the media all have a vested interest in portraying the election as close, to the extent that it’s even filtered into PB.

    Relax, it’s not. Labor in a canter.

    Expectations management, pol herding, you name it – everything has been employed by those trying to push the “close elections” meme.

  29. The media always seem to give tories a pass when they lie.
    It’s like they expect a different standard for progressives.
    google “what if Obama said it”

  31. The Coalition has had three Health Ministers: Dutton, Ley, Hunt. All three could well lose their seats on Saturday. Abbott was also a Health Minister under Howard.

  33. No impact on wealth of bottom 50% of households, as in, they will still be living week-to-week ?
    Seems like a very flawed analysis, maybe they should examine the effect Labor might have on their quality of life, and opportunities.

  34. Morgan to the rescue ;). I’ll take that as a good result, with Labor’s PV shifting from worrying numbers to ok.

  38. Barnaby Joyce showing all the love and affection for which he is renowned.

    Barnaby Joyce
    ‏
    Verified account

    @Barnaby_Joyce
    Following Following @Barnaby_Joyce
    More
    Dear @roboakeshott I’m leaving today. Went swimming and I should lose some weight then I thought what you would say, “beautiful in its ugliness”. So many memories Rob; picnics, sunblock, you supporting the Green/Labor/Independent alliance. Now a future of electric cars. Cheers

  39. Re: trump and tarrifs in China. Did you see that a few days ago he made statements that the US “is making sooooo much money from China paying tarrifs” – until it was pointed out to him that US consumers pay the tarrifs. So the fuckwit is having a trade war without understanding how tarrifs work.

  40. A lot of pessimists in here!
    I’d rather be in Labor’s shoes instead of Morrison’s, at this point, there are more avenues for a Labor win, however close it could be.
    Scomo basically needs to hold all the seats he already has after the redistribution in Victoria, and flip 2 or 3 more to his side(Wentworth, Indi, Lindsday, Bass or Braddon), and try not to lose the likes of Dunkley and Chisholm. Seems a very narrow window to me, and a high risk one.

  41. On Higgins, I happen to live there and was robocalled by the Liberals last night.

    Didn’t listen to the full spiel, because it was dinner time.

    I’ve also been polled about 5 times.

  42. @Barnaby_Joyce
    Following Following @Barnaby_Joyce
    More
    Dear @roboakeshott I’m leaving today. Went swimming and I should lose some weight then I thought what you would say, “beautiful in its ugliness”. So many memories Rob; picnics, sunblock, you supporting the Green/Labor/Independent alliance. Now a future of electric cars. Cheers

    Is Barnaby sozzled again? WTF?

  43. And if Laura Tingle says the Coalition are worried, I’d tend to believe her.
    I’d certainly trust her over the likes of Dennis Shanahan and other pro LNP usual spokespeople in the media.

  46. sustainable future @ #137 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 8:39 am

    Re: trump and tarrifs in China. Did you see that a few days ago he made statements that the US “is making sooooo much money from China paying tarrifs” – until it was pointed out to him that US consumers pay the tarrifs. So the fuckwit is having a trade war without understanding how tarrifs work.

    Looks like a tax grab imho.

  47. Oh, and if Boothby is such a write off for Labor, why is Shorten going there today?
    If Scomo has it “in the bag”, why is he campaigning in Liberal held marginal seats in WA?
    Watch where the leaders go in the final week, tells you a fair bit about the state of their own internal polling.

  49. ScoMo just doesn’t get the reality of life at the bottom.

    But while inequality measurements are important they can hide the reality that for those in the bottom 10% life remains as brutally hard as ever. The richest might see their income fall because of falling asset prices but that does little to alleviate life in poverty even if it might suggest equality has improved.

    The political debate also frequently sets the position of poverty as one of blame – that it is people’s own fault for being poor. Much like casual racism there is a casual prejudice against poverty.

    Just this week the prime minister, Scott Morrison, suggested, “The harder you work, the better you do, good for you. I do not understand what the point would be of working hard under a Labor government. I really do not know. Why would you bother? Because the better you do, the harder you work, the more you put in, the more Bill Shorten puts his hand in your pocket.”

    That line intrinsically suggests that wealth is something deserved, due not through luck of birth or connections but just hard work. The harder you work, the more you earn – and thus if you do not earn enough, clearly you are not working hard enough.

    And yet the Australian Council of Social Service (Acoss) estimates 38% of those living below the poverty line are in work and 15% of all people who work part-time are in poverty.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/15/australian-poverty-in-graphs-its-a-desperate-state-of-affairs

  50. Re “internal polling”. Has anyone ever produced an analytical report? Judging by the reports on phone polling here, there is not a lot of polling that doesn’t get reported via media outlets. Often just seems to be a unicorn to provide a new angle to get a message across.

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