Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019

Aggregated state breakdowns from Newspoll suggest solid swings in Victoria and Queensland will tip a close result in Labor’s favour.

No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.

The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.

Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.

Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019”

Comments Page 4 of 27
1 3 4 5 27
  1. The guardian is favourable to labor only in the sense there is an attempt at balance.

    Which is the way it should be.

    They are not perfect but better than all the rest.

  2. Spence @ #148 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 8:48 am

    Re “internal polling”. Has anyone ever produced an analytical report? Judging by the reports on phone polling here, there is not a lot of polling that doesn’t get reported via media outlets. Often just seems to be a unicorn to provide a new angle to get a message across.

    Kevin Bonham has looked at comparing seat polls and ultimate reality. Conclusion was they aren’t worth a piece of shite.

  3. I’m not giving up comrades. I’m just bracing for a shocker on Saturday night.

    ‘My bones’ tell me that Labor will actually eek out a 8-12 seat net gain (leaving labor with a working majority of between 77 & 81 seats), but ‘my waters’ are saying hung parliament.

    Of course my head is still sticking with Labor winning 127 seats on the back of a ScoMo black swan moment … which is going to happen … any day now … any day …

  4. J341983,

    I will never understand people who give up at the first sign of resistance. Guess what Australian elections are tough and often very close.

    If it’s worth it, it’s worth fighting for.

    Yes, most here think the Tories deserve a 55-45 and 25+ seat loss, but it was never happening. Labor simply doesn’t have the territory to generate those sorts of wins.

    But to me, a win is a win.

    Do not misunderstand. I am in Europe, but I am still (as a volunteer) organising the Labor on the ground campaign for my branch.

    I am putting everything I can think of into winning this election, and I think we will win, the question is mostly by how much.

    However, the statistics and polling are cold hard facts that we would need an extraordinary reason to dismiss.

    It may be that because of the difficulty in reaching young people the polls are skewed. Equally, the assumptions about how Clive Palmer and “others” preferences are split between the ALP and the Coalition may be too optimistic for the coalition.

    I am also concerned about the poll herding, which I can see very obviously in bludgertrack over the last few weeks, as reduced scatter around the trend line.

    However, the Pollbludger-tracker has, for more than a decade, given an excellent idea of where the TPP and the change of seats will fall, and we need to prepare for this to be the outcome.

  5. “The Guardian?”

    Nah. Staffed with the Petite Bourgeois that dabble at being trots. No friends of labor there. Except for Amy. Bless

  6. Andrew_Earlwood
    As I advised you last night on the previous blog( and if you haven’t read it, read it page 28) stop hyperventilating and over reading these polls.
    Everything I hear from my friends in Canberra is that it’s the Coalition with all the worries NOT Labor!!
    Bill and Labor have this, as some others have already said, the Liberals would rather be in Labor’s shoes facing polling day.
    And, as to your over reliance on statistics, remember,
    Lies, damned lies and statistics!!!!

  7. ‘Labor simply doesn’t have the territory to generate those sorts of wins.’

    Labor simply doesn’t have the killer instinct to take the tories and their lies apart.

  8. Rates Analyst, I also live in Higgens. I also got robocalled last night. It declared it was from Katie Allen and asked to hold the line as a real person would talk to me shortly. I hung up.

    At the same time, my OH also got a similar call.

    I wondered where they got our numbers from.

    Desperate times for Katie Allen.

  9. For PaulTu I think re donkey voting. Obviously it varies but seems to be about 0.6-0.7% in Reps and maybe a bit less in Senate. Tends to be less in seats with low informals. This is based on scrutineer info and some other research/reporting. One check is to find candidates that bob up with no campaign presence at all (Citizen Electoral Council being 1 example) and check their vote.

    So in a HoR seat any candidate having the donkey vote winning with less than say 500 votes can be fairly said to have only won thru luck of the draw.

  10. And Mundo, give it a rest, please!!!
    Given what you keep posting, your concern trolling is becoming just a tad annoying.

  11. Zoomster is right regarding the Liberals campaign launch on Sunday.
    It did not reflect a party on the winning side.
    Having said that, and repeating my past comments that as happened with Victorian state election, there was no indication of the result that actually occurred, and Newspoll was so far off the mark.
    And Blue ribbon liberal seats were lost. Not even Labor insiders saw that

  12. Andrew Earlwood, a PBer I can trust.
    My bones and waters sending the exact same signals.

    Oh for a sip of the cordial some take here to calm my nerves.

  13. Roy Morgan Summary

    The last face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll before the election shows the ALP regaining the initiative and pulling away from the L-NP with an election winning two-party preferred lead: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%. The increase for the ALP came through an increased primary vote at the expense of the Greens, according to the final face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll of the Federal Election, and indicates the chances of Australia electing a hung Parliament this weekend have diminished. Primary Voting Intention: Primary support for the L-NP was unchanged at 38.5% this week but support for the ALP increased by 1.5% to 35.5%.

    The ALP gained support from the Greens, down 1% to 10%. Support for One Nation was unchanged at 4% and support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP) was unchanged at 3.5%. Support for Independents/Others is down marginally by 0.5% to 8.5%. In a worrying sign for the L-NP Government the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has dropped 6pts to 93 this week with 44.5% of electors (up 3.5%) saying Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’ and only 37.5% (down 2.5%) saying Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’

  14. “Labor simply doesn’t have the killer instinct to take the tories and their lies apart.”

    Labor doesn’t have the owners of the big media megaphones campaigning for them. It can take on the lies and comprehensively expose them but those who get their news from the Daily Rupert and Commercial TV & Radio will never hear of it.

  15. Red13 – one only has to see where the leaders are travelling to see that this election lies somewhere between what my bones and my waters are telling me.

    Regardless of that, there has to be a real possibility that it could be worse than even that. Those liberal attack ads are so dam potent. Given the material at hand, labor’s attack ads have been piss poor and frankly the good one – was focused on climate change. This is not the election turned that the greater left and even the media portrait it to be. Alas.

    How long did it take you to get over Trump? Me? – about 6 months. This could be worse (given its own country) and I don’t think it wise to do cognitive dissonance on the basis of what ‘Canberra mates’ are saying: they probably don’t know for sure, even if they were being honest.

    Brace yourselves comrades. Saturday night could well be the best of times, but it could be the worst of times as well.

  16. Douglas and Milko says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 5:37 am

    Itep,

    D&M to clarify, I wasn’t saying nath had an OAM, but Steven Bradbury. My personal opinion is that far too many honours are given out, often for things where the person was just doing what they were doing as a job for large sums of money. I’m not judging them for that but that should surely be enough recognition.

    Thanks! Thought you must all know which luminary the poster known as Nath actually was.

    Also, I do agree that many OAMs are given out for people who are paid a large amount of money todo their job, and the OAM is just given for doing the job.

    Of course, the people I know are all community nominated, but even to get a community nomination means that you know people who know how to do a nomination, and that even OAMs exist.
    ——————————————–

    My comment wasn’t suggesting that Order of Australia recipients are not worthy. My concern is that the system of honors is cumbersome.

    Part of the reason is that it attempts to cover every base instead of concentrating on women and men whose service is at the national and international level. And too many of the awards are for people merely doing their day jobs, rather than making a voluntary contribution that improves the lives of their fellow Australians.

    Some 1,600 nominations are received each year. Many of these are deserving individuals at the state, regional or local level. They could better be recognized by state awards instead of being lost among upwards of a thousand honorees.

    You point is well taken about how many people are not recognized because they are not self-promoters or there isn’t anyone who is prepared to take on the formal role of nominating them.

    I’m also disturbed by the Hollywood-type hype associated with the Australian of the Year awards. That program, I feel, detracts from and diminishes the real deal which is the Order of Australia. As with many of these hokey awards, it’s demeaning to have these outstanding inviduals put into a reality TV popularity contest.

  17. What i like to see this Sunday

    Newsltd hacks crying that the public did not fall to their propaganda to get the libs/nats re-elected

  18. Roy Morgan Summary

    The ALP campaign launch last week with a message of unity has helped provide a ‘boost’ in ALP support with under a week to go until the Federal Election. The ALP 52% now holds an election winning lead over the L-NP 48% on a two-party preferred basis. In addition Bill Shorten’s good week came as many Australians felt sympathy for Shorten after he described the struggles his mother had endured to undertake her dream of completing a law degree. A front-page headline in Sydney’s Daily Telegraph which sought to attack Shorten for drawing on his mother’s story only served to highlight his mother’s achievements to a wider audience. Shorten also had two successful leadership debates with Prime Minister Scott Morrison including a quick-witted put-down of Morrison as a ‘classic space invader’ during the second leader’s debate and a solid performance in the third, and final, leader’s debate last Wednesday.

    In calculating the two-party preferred support the Roy Morgan Poll uses respondent’s stated preferences. While Greens supporters strongly preferences the ALP, other parties stated preferences are dividing fairly evenly between the ALP and L-NP and as many as one-in-four electors still haven’t made their mind up. However, most Australians believe the ALP will win the election with many polls for months showing the ALP well ahead of the Government. But will all the polls be proven wrong again like with the US Presidential Election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016? Most people believed Clinton would win and this belief was reflected by most of the American polls at the time

  19. What wimps. Nothing worth doing ever came without cost. Change is difficult. IF Labor just scrapes over the line (which will still mean a major loss for the Coalition – the ‘winners’ in that scenario is the cross bench) we’ll need all the progressive voices we can muster out there in the community.

  20. Zoidlord
    Stop saying stop trolling.
    I’m perfectly entitled to post comments here, as you are.
    Some of your comments boarder on what I call optotrolling – wish that would catch on so I could say Stop Optotrolling! – anyway, it’s just such a dumb tiresome comment.
    Give up.

  21. Keating on with Faine, talking about Dutton – “In those 50 years I haven’t seen a public figure as dark as Dutton” and the voters of Dickson have a chance to “drive a stake through his heart.”

    Man has a way with words

    Says this Labor team is up there with Hawke’s cabinet in 83, with Shorten the leader bringing together a quality team. Says Morrison nothing more than the bloke next door in a baseball cap, and Australia needs more. Shorten “the Winx” of the campaign.

  22. Zoomster

    I want Labor to win comfortably, but I will take a win with a few seat buffer.
    Anything is better than the abomination we have right now!

  23. The Morgan reporting is classical in pretending that polling is precise rather than a statistical exercise. “The ALP gained support from the Greens, down 1% to 10%.” Assuming the poll is a randomised sample and they don’t keep records on earlier voting, they don’t have any evidence of a person who voted Greens in their last poll and labor in the latest poll.

    All they can say is the latest poll sample records a higher Labor % and a lower Greens %. Could be explained by random sample variation and shifts which are not just linear between 2 parties but involving all parties.

  24. I have been quietly reading the posts on this blog for years now and just wanted to contribute one thing about why seat polling might be less than accurate. I participated in the Boothby YouGov Galaxy poll despite being just outside the electorate. It made me wonder if targeting these robopoll calls is not such n exact art…

  25. D&M

    ‘However, the statistics and polling are cold hard facts that we would need an extraordinary reason to dismiss.’

    And they all show Labor winning. By a good margin.

    None of them suggest a scrape in – Labor only needs 50% to get that.

    So if we’re not dismissing the polls, which show what they show, why the gloom?

  26. Izzy:

    You need to download the PB comments plugin for either Firefox or Chrome, depending on what browser you’re using. Kayjay has the links, so maybe ask the next time he’s commenting.

  27. Vintage Keating:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/may/14/federal-election-2019-morrison-shorten-coalition-labor-politics-live

    ‘No big ideas’ in Australian politics in a quarter of a century, says Paul Keating

    After John Howard popped his head up yesterday in Warringah (he will be sent to Perth today) former prime minister Paul Keating is speaking to Jon Faine on ABC Melbourne radio.

    And he is not holding back.

    On Howard’s intervention yesterday, Keating says that is on form:

    “Howard will say anything at any time to support any argument.”

    He goes on to say there hasn’t been big ideas in Australian politics in about 25 years (before this Labor opposition)

    The last time we saw the Labor Party this good as this was really in 1983, with Bob Hawke’s first ministry. This is what you’re seeing again with Shorten. Shorten will be the competent leader of a really important and solid team.”

    But it’s his views of Home Affairs Peter Dutton which bring the first oof.

    “In those 5o years I’ve never seen a public figure as dark as Peter Dutton,” he says.

    He says on May 18, Dickson voters have a chance to “drive a stake through his dark political heart.

    On Scott Morrison, Keating says he’s shown he can be “the man next door who can jump the fence and wear a baseball cap”, but adds Australia “needs more than the man next door” as a leader.

  28. mundo,

    I appreciate you’re pessimistic and that’s fine, people have a right to be. I haven’t had a nervous nellie moment this campaign yet, but I’m sure it will come sometime between now and Saturday.

    But one thing I take issue with you over is your earlier post that Labor wasn’t trying to counter these obvious lies and smear. I think they have, but there’s also only so much you can do,. If Shorten and the campaign spokespeople spent their time rebutting every nutbag post or ad put out there by all these RWNJs, they genuinely wouldn’t have time to make policy announcements of their own, and they would rightly be accused of being too reactive and not providing a vision of their own.

    I think they’ve played it pretty well tbh.

  29. Izzy @ #180 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 9:04 am

    Is there a way to block posters here? I know there’s been reference to it before. Would appreciate a steer.

    Are you thinking of “Bill Posters will be prosecuted ❓ ”

    or perhaps.

    An add on for either Firefox or Chrome Desktop or Firefox for Android

    Which is obtainable at —

    Chrome Extension
    https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/pb-comments-plugin/onjomgpfepfmffelldjhpapljdfiodpi
    Firefox Plugin
    https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/pb-comments-plugin

    ☮☕ Thanks Confessions .

  30. It was cruel of you to take away my OAM Itep. I was enjoying the thought that D&M considered me somewhat illustrious.

    D&M, by the sound of it you had a wonderful time growing up with your rambunctious family. I envy you. As for Cromwell, I would have to say I was not a fan. Although he did some good things, he also brought quite a bit of suffering in Ireland. On a personal note he was also a Puritan, and they are never much fun.

Comments Page 4 of 27
1 3 4 5 27

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *