No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.
The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.
Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.
Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.
I pre-polled yesterday.
J341983 @ #490 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 12:27 pm
and was accepted wisdom in PB land many polls ago.
+1
Michael A @ #481 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 12:21 pm
==
I have placed $20 bets on both Bass and Braddon for Labor, 2.15 for Labor in Boothby, 2.00 for Labor to win exactly 4 Tasmanian seats and 2.50 for Labor to win 81-85 seats. – $100.00 net. I wish me luck lol.
I support early voting and make use of it on a regular basis because I travel on an irregular basis.
Good for increasing the turn out and good for democracy, IMO.
There IS a risk that some horrible thing might be revealed about Morrison and his gaggle of scoundrels but that is a risk I have chosen to take.
@Boerwar
I believe it might for the best, they wasted an opportunity to become a sizable party by not embracing an eco-socialist, left-wing populist platform.
Serious question; why aren’t polling companies exit polling prepoll voters?
I’ve always thought this would be a good idea as a polling initiative because:
1. You are removing the variable of voters changing their mind as they have already voted.
2. The popularity of prepoll nowadays means you would be able to get a large enough representative sample.
But I’m yet to see it and I’ve wondered if there is any particular reason why this wouldn’t be done given that exit polling on polling day is widely practiced.
If I was running a polling company I would be exit polling on prepoll each week in marginal seats in each state.
Perhaps the rules should be changed so that those who were, for one valid reason or another unable to vote on polling day, could vote for the week after the main polling date.
“Blobbit, I also think the Negative Gearing changes are more of a negative for Labor then they imagine (and certainly more so than Franking Credits – in my opinion).”
And if Labor win, then these policies will be hailed as being genius. Tends to be the way of it.
If Labor lose, what that says to me is that Australia has become much more insular that it was through the mid 80s and early 90s. It’d be fun to speculate why, but if that’s the case it’s going to be hard for Labor to win. No idea of course if it is, so let’s see.
Nath
It does indeed. Based on its current share price, it has a 7% yield – fully franked.
It’s share price is also volatile based on whatever the iron ore price is.
It has a 52 week range from a high of $8.24, and a low of $3.515, or a 57%+ swing from low to high. Considering it last traded (12.28pm Sydney time – source Commsec) @ $7.595, so is not far from the top of the 52 week range.
Given world events, ie a full on trade war between China and the US, and that causes a slow down in China, Fortescue’s share price is going to get slaughtered. Quite possibly the 52 week low of $3.515, might become the new 52 week high. Plus you can kiss any hope of a dividend goodbye.
So a 7% dividend is no compensation at all for a 57% loss of capital.
Also see Observer’s many posts on the loss of capital NAB investors have endured in exchange for an ~5% dividend yield.
‘Tristo says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 12:31 pm
@Boerwar
I believe it might for the best, they wasted an opportunity to become a sizable party by not embracing an eco-socialist, left-wing populist platform.’
Yep. The Tree Tories are holding back the Red Ideologues. It stands to reason.
“I support early voting”
I don’t, takes money away from schools through sausage sizzles. Right wing plot to destroy public education.
Morgan Poll
52-48 ALP
@GhostWhoVotes
even after the chatter about solomon being at risk, the bookies have it @4.00 for the coalition.
From GHV
#Morgan Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (-1) ALP 52 (+1) #auspol
#Morgan Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 38.5 (0) ALP 35.5 (+1.5) GRN 10 (-1) ON 4 (0) UAP 3.5 (0) #auspol
Boerwar @ #504 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 12:33 pm
Practising your orbital scatologisms?
Thanks sprocket 🙂
I expect the Liberals to hold Higgins, but if they do lose it, they will lose it to the Greens. The rise in the Greens’ vote has been steady and clear for the last umpteen elections and I can’t see Labor closing the ten percent gap from last time.
“#Morgan Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (-1) ALP 52 (+1) #auspol ”
Bad poll for Labor
(Thought I’d just go with the general vibe today)
Ante Meridian @ #495 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 12:29 pm
—
I would be more concerned about Lindsay, Herbert and Griffith.
Two questions for William (or a knowledgeable Bludger) .
1. Is it correct to assume that pre-poll voting generally reflects polling at the time, while postal voting tends to be more conservative?
2. Are pre-poll votes counted on election day with regular votes?
Cheers
Pollsters decide its time to climb onboard?
Al Pal says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 12:23 pm
I don’t think we’re talking about undecided voters here.
The increase yesterday could suggest that some were waiting for both sides to lay their cards on the table before deciding.
As for your hypothetical, is it such a bad thing that a late strategically released piece of mud has less impact.
If it was so truly important, it shouldn’t have been held back in the first place.
Interesting Morgan. ALP primary at 35.5, three behind coalition. Assume the 2pp is right. Morgan is often closer than Newspoll to the actual vote. A comfortable win to Bill. Very.
‘Late Riser says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 12:37 pm
Boerwar @ #504 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 12:33 pm
Perhaps the rules should be changed so that those who were, for one valid reason or another unable to vote on polling day, could vote for the week after the main polling date.
Practising your orbital scatologisms?’
LR
In my humble way I aim to support democracy wherever I can.
Dan Gulberry
So a 7% dividend is no compensation at all for a 57% loss of capital.
________________________________
But if you bought your FMG shares back in 2016 for $1.60 like I did, it’s not that bad at all.
Ifonly, who I think I used to chat with in the very early days on sharetrading sites, knows what he is talking about – to a degree.
The sophisticated investor will shift out of franked dividend paying shares – indeed already have. If you want exposure to higher risk markets, there are now infinite offshore and crypto options. Safer options are listed trusts, industry or *cough* commercial super funds, or commercial notes.
My concern with the $6-8b headline figure ‘to be saved’, is how much of this rort-chasing money will move on to the next tax efficient vehicle.?
And for some inspiration for Saturday you can’t beat Infinite Tucker.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-14/sensational-dive-at-the-finish-line-athlete-clinch-400m-hurdles/11109896
Gotta laugh at the accusations of “defeatism” coming from the very same people who have decided that there’s no point trying to respond to attacks on Labor’s supposed fiscal incompetence.
It’s too late to matter now, but would it have killed them to run some ads which adopted the same format as this golden oldie? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYxnlHmLzOw
(The fact that they haven’t done so serves to reinforce a certain theory I have about what’s really going on here…)
Barney
Fair point.
EB @ #518 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 12:39 pm
Griffith?!! Where did that come from?
And another one bites the dust…..
The Greens have made this announcement:
David Paull has stood down as Greens candidate for Parkes. The Greens will take down all campaigning material in his name.
David absolutely rejects the views he is quoted as supporting, but has stood down to not become a distraction from the important issues The Greens are focused on.
That follows this story in the Australian:
A Greens candidate claimed on social media that Martin Bryant didn’t commit the 1996 Port Arthur massacre in which 35 people died. He then denied making the comments, before later admitting he wrote them.
The Facebook comment on a Port Arthur conspiracy theory page from David Paull, the Greens candidate in the western NSW seat of Parkes, said the massacre looked “like an operation designed for psychological manipulation of the general population”.
“There is only one sure thing in my mind — Bryant didn’t do it and so a great crime on the Australian people was committed,” the November 2018 comment, unearthed by social media intelligence and news agency Storyful, reads.”
I’m enrolled in Longman however I live in both Longman and Menzies.
The difference in “pub talk” is very interesting. I’m noticing alot of the “tradies” in Menizes voting Labor and preferencing ONP or other small right wing parties, or voting small right wing parties and preferencing Labor. I
In Longman its the total opposite.
I see nath is still waving and yelling “look at me!” From the sidelines. Sad nath. Truly sad.
Griffith is not in danger.
Lose Griffith!!!!!!
Someone’s tugging the chain
there goes my belief that the left are immune from conspiracy theories.
thank a lot David Paull
Rocket Rocket says:
Monday, May 13, 2019 at 9:57 pm
Burgey
One thing I’ll give Barry Goldwater credit for – in 1972 when the Democratic nominee George McGovern lost in a landslide to Nixon, Goldwater was one of the first to ring him. Apparently he said words to the effect of “If you lose, lose big – otherwise no-one will remember you”.
————————-
I remember that election vividly.
A few months earlier, the Watergate burglars were apprehended with eavesdropping equipment at the offices of the National Democratic Committee. But the story faded when no one could provide evidence to tie the men to the Republican Party or the White House. Woodward and Bernstein’s great initial reporting went nowhere as the Republicans worked to bury the story, and it did not become a significant issue in the 1972 election campaign.
But in the very week of the election, Walter Cronkite and the CBS Evening News ran a series of features, outlining all that was known about Watergate, using the material gathered by Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein. Cronkite’s 14-minute report, almost half of the newscast, followed by an eight-minute segment four days later, ‘put the Watergate story clearly and substantially before millions of Americans’ for the first time,’ the broadcast historian Marvin Barrett wrote in Moments of Truth? (1975).
Talk about a Black Swan! It was explosive stuff.
Although he did not use the words “obstruction of justice,” Cronkite laid it all out including the suggestion of a cover-up. So much so that I jumped up from the TV and ran into the kitchen, shouting to my wife: “Walter Cronkite has just accused the President of the United States of obstruction of justice!”
We’ve become unfortunately inured to the antics of Donald Trump. But in that more civilized era this broadcast was unprecedented, so much so that the public turned away from the idea, even coming from Cronkite, “the most trusted man in television news.” Nixon was known as “tricky Dick,” but Americans could not bring themselves to believe the cover-up. And on the following Tuesday, Nixon defeated decent George McGovern in a landslide.
And that’s where the Watergate story lay for many more months. It took a courageous District Court judge John Sirica to begin unravelling the coverup and the end of the Nixon presidency. When the burglars came up before him, Sirica refused to accept their guilty pleas and their story that they were lone wolves. One of them finally broke and disclosed the ties to the Republicans.
Of course Woodward and Bernstein and the Washington Post deserved their Pulitzer Prize. But history has largely forgotten the important and courageous role that CBS News and Walter Cronkite played in the Watergate affair.
Just wagered $200 on the election. Bets were limited by the site.
$33 @ 8.50 Labor to win 10 or fewer seats out of 30 in Qld (currently 8)
$10 @ 26.00 Coalition to win 20 or more seats out of 30 in Qld (currently 21)
$157 @ 6.00 LNP to form government
I would have put entire stake on the first bet but they wouldn’t let me. But I still more than break even if I “win” even one of them.
At least the audience is enjoying today’s episode of Days of Our Bludgers. 😉
poroti
That is possibly the most cruel post ever for Bludger.
In Longman Bribie Island has some very very vocal Libs and ONP, and some very shy Labor supporters. Across the pummistone passage the same. ONP seems disturbingly popular.
I couldn’t give a toss about sport in general, but The Project showed this footage, and I have to say … that’s not right. If you’re not ‘upright’ at the finishing line of a running race you shouldn’t be declared the winner.
If this becomes a legitimate part of the sport I would expect to see this happening regularly, athletes training how to get a good launch for their finishing dive … it would be ridiculous. Although sport is pretty ridiculous already so, meh.
“Regardless of the result of this election, the Liberal-National Coalition will become more conservative. The “moderates” of the party are being replaced by more conservative members, such as Celia Hammond replacing Julie Bishop in Curtin. Kelly O’Dwyer, Malcolm Turnbull and Julia Banks are also all leaving. Craig Laundy is vacating Reid.
The fulcrum of power will fundamentally shift to the Right.
Three years of impotent Labor, castrated by a hostile Senate with Hanson holding the balance of power, is not a disaster for Australia, considering that in 2022 we may usher in a new golden Conservative age which will be entrenched for a generation.”
Ye. Gads. The Ghost of Lord North speaks.
If that sort of distopia was ever to come about I’ll be reaching for my musket and forming a line with my fellow citizens on Bunker Hill.
CAMERON C.
Is that a free $200 from a signup promo?
Cooee is part of Burnie, to the west of the city centre.
Another Green bites the dust:
[‘The Greens have made this announcement:
David Paull has stood down as Greens candidate for Parkes. The Greens will take down all campaigning material in his name.
David absolutely rejects the views he is quoted as supporting but has stood down to not become a distraction from the important issues The Greens are focused on.
That follows this story in the Australian:
A Greens candidate claimed on social media that Martin Bryant didn’t commit the 1996 Port Arthur massacre in which 35 people died. He then denied making the comments, before later admitting he wrote them.
‘The Facebook comment on a Port Arthur conspiracy theory page from David Paull, the Greens candidate in the western NSW seat of Parkes, said the massacre looked “like an operation designed for psychological manipulation of the general population”.
“There is only one sure thing in my mind — Bryant didn’t do it and so a great crime on the Australian people was committed,” the November 2018 comment, unearthed by social media intelligence and news agency Storyful, reads.”]
poroti says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 12:51 pm
Is that Bill’s bulldog in the back row?
nath
And if the Chinese economy does go into a tailspin, you may well be able to sell them for $1.60 on their way to even lower levels.
Jackol, I know what you mean, but that guy wanted to win. He put his body on the line. The rules may change, but he’s an inspiration. (Just for the spectacle I secretly hope it’s allowed to continue.)
nope this is not a signup promo.