No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.
The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.
Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.
Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.
For fun, this was William immediately prior to the Victorian State election
“Victorian election minus one week (header)
The Liberals continue to talk up their chances ahead of next week’s Victorian election, but betting markets appear unimpressed.
The Victorian election has been remarkably light on for opinion polls: …………….We do, however, have a uComms/ReachTEL poll conducted privately for the Victorian National Parks Association, although one might well look askance at the result, which credits Labor with a two-party lead of 56-44. ”
Actual result:
Two-party preferred
# % Swing Projected
Labor 1,725,077 56.3% +5.4% 57.4%
Coalition 1,339,574 43.7% -5.4% 46.6%
The lesson? Maybe we should trust the ‘betting markets’, and any polls we like the look of, even if they are carried out for the National Parks Association.
Greensborough Growler @ #434 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:21 am
As far as I’m aware, I’m having a discussion on an internet forum, not staking my life.
My perspective is that any intelligent person should understand where the world is at on the issue of climate change. The fact that the polls are so close speaks volumes about intelligence and greed. Anyone who votes Liberal at this point is literally voting to harm their own children and grandchildren and to work towards the extinction of most life on earth.
I am not a fan of the ALP. So why would I?
I get out. I am out and about a lot for work interacting with clients, other workers/contractors, and peeps on the street (fairdinkum, it is like I have a big letter “i” stamped on my forehead). I go to the kids sporting events, school functions etc. The local business association. And my network through the professional association. And with Council. And I am chatty. And people chat to me. I know almost all the local cafe owners here and baristas by name.
From my experience locally I am very confident Sharkie will win. And from my experience more broadly I am very confident people are not excited about the ALP.
But my MOE is no better than Newspoll. So, at 51-49 I call it close.
YouGov wasn’t that far off was it (in Victoria).
I don’t think suggesting people prefer the polls that tell them what they want to believe is that good.
Labor’s PV will increase to 38 and TPP to 52.5 in next Newspoll and Newspoll will maintain its reputation as best election predictor.
The trouble with the ‘aspiration’ argument is that we are now in a post-aspiration world. People are battling falling wages, casual and irregular work, worse conditions, unaffordable primary residences etc… Aspirations for investment properties have now gone and it is batten down the hatches and survive. The days of the average family plotting their investment property portfolio around the dinner table are now long gone (if there ever was such a day).
“So why have the polls consistently had the Libs within the MOE given Shorten’s excellent campaign?”
I don’t think the campaign has been excellent at all.
Labor looked very good coming out of Shorten’s budget reply and the announcement of the Medicare cancer policy. They promptly ran nothing but negative ads for most of the campaign and barely remembered to talk about the cancer policy when given the opportunity. Barely talked about wages. Have never talked about the banking RC except to mention Morrison’s voting record on it – what, not even a “only a Labor government can be trusted to carry out the recommendations of the banking royal commission”?
Given that, as must have been expected, the Coalition and the media who parrot their talking points want to talk about nothing but taxes and surpluses and costings, Labor needed to be ensuring their positive policies were being talked about too, but for a long time they didn’t and the whole media cycle was nothing but financials and dodgy candidates.
They felt like they turned it around a bit last week, on the back of the campaign launch and some better advertising, but that doesn’t make it an excellent campaign.
“As far as I’m aware, I’m having a discussion on an internet forum, not staking my life”.
It’s far more important than that!
LongMemory82 @ #428 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:50 am
Especially as the Coalition refers to it as a Retirees Tax….and people believe it.
I have little time for the aspiration argument.
If people want additional stuff, why is it the Government’s job to make it easier for people who already have stuff, to have more stuff… at the expense of service delivery or assisting people who current don’t have stuff?
‘Patrick Bateman says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 11:35 am
Like it or not, but if Labor manages to lose then it will be regarded as a combination of the franking credits policy and Shorten’s unpopularity.’
Like it or not, but if Labor manages to win then it will be regarded as a combination of the franking credits policy and Shorten’s popularity.
What a surprise! The Liberals, the Nationals, PHON, Katter, United Australia Party, the Anning Party and the Greens are all STILL doing Kill Bill.
Herbert is a likely coalition gain and indi as well. {evidence being bookies and polling}
Thats about it though.
With the franking credits, a lot of those affected vote lib anyway.
I am more worried about the bogan vote with the tax scare mailouts.
bogans don’t scrutinise policies like the politically engaged.
They respond better to 3 word slogans.
And more important in the other contest on Saturday, after the jury final last night (that consists half the marks) Australia has zoomed up to 6th in Eurovision betting.
In terms of polls, well the primary votes of the majors have been pretty low, but generally Labors primary has been shown to be atleast a bit higher than last election, while LNP is down around 3 points atleast.
So theirs undecideds and then theirs just a guess about preferences from minors partys, all which can change the 2pp substantially.
Simon Katich,
You live in a seat that is the home of the Downers. I don’t think your local experiences are any real guide at all.
ar
” he has a bunch of days yet”
He has three days and the blackout kicks in midnight Wednesday.
So, to make it meaningful, he has NO time left.
Too little too late in those seats now.
I truly think they are no longer on the to do list anymore
Burgey
“William close this site down!”
What would become of us then? !!!!!!
We would have no further purpose.
Antony Green has Labor on 81 seats
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-01/federal-election-2019-antony-green-house-of-reps-calculator/10872122?state=federal&y=2019&help=10884170&chartSeatWidth=3&swing=20&showStates=yes&showLink=yes
That’s more than reassuring.
J341983 says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 12:08 pm
Simple!
If you have stuff, that implies you’ve had ago, so you get a go and are able to acquire more stuff.
What could be fairer or more reasonable?
Torchbearer @ #464 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 12:09 pm
I have never understood why Australia is allowed to participate. The winning country hosts the next one. Even though the young lady got her break at the watering hole of my youth, I don’t see it happening.
Simon² Katich® @ #448 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 12:03 pm
My sense exactly. And down in the little state that could, the Bill we can’t afford ads are killing the ALP I reckon..
Kenny: can’t believe Labor going on about Morrison’s first home owner policy not being approved by cabinet. None of Labor’s policies have been approved by cabinet. They have been approved by shadow cabinet….
Huh?
Gee, the Chicken Littles are out in force these past few days. Someone above passed off as ‘analysis’ a hypothetical about how hard it would be for Labor to win if they lost a bunch of seats and didn’t pick many up. Really? Who’d have thunk it?
These exercises in hypothesising worst cases for Labor as a way of justifying pessimism about Labor’s chances are, to put it mildly, circular in their reasoning.
Ifonly,
If only (pun intended) you knew what you were talking about.
There are NO mining companies that pay a higher dividend yield than the banks or Telstra. In fact most of them don’t pay dividends at all.
As far as capital growth goes, the only ones that stand a chance of growing in value are the “blue sky” variety whose share prices go through the roof on the announcement of a new ore discovery. Even then it’ll be a long time before they start paying dividends.
The one’s that do pay dividends tend to fluctuate in value within a range of high and low prices, ie when the ore prices rises, the share price rises; when the ore price goes back down again, the share price follows.
Any growth from dividend paying miners is temporary at best. Which makes them better for trading than investing. Buy at the low point of the range, sell at the top, and trouser any dividends you get along the way as a bonus.
A company known as Mount Isa Mines (long since taken over and delisted from the ASX) serves as an example. Throughout much of the 1990’s before it was taken over (by Glencore from memory), they traded within a range of $0.80 and $1.20. You could pretty much guarantee a 50% or so profit by buying when they hit $0.80 (or lower), and selling when they hit $1.20 (or higher), then sit back and wait for them to hit $0.80 again.
So, yeah, nah.
Investors are not going to dump their bank shares and reinvest in miners. In all likelihood they’ll reinvest in listed property trusts (or Real Estate Investment Trusts – REITs) which tend to pay higher yields than the banks, and also have some tax advantages (such as depreciation, cost of maintenance and upgrades, etc).
Morgan 52 48.
38.5 LNP
35.5 ALP
GRN 10
ON 4
OTHERS 12
Fortescue pays an OK dividend.
Even if Labor wins a narrow majority, I predict there is going to be a sizable cross-bench comprising at least of the members for Cowper, Wentworth, Warringah, Farrer, Melbourne, Clark, Mayo, Kennedy, along with maybe Higgins and/or Kooyong.
Nicko,
Why would the undecideds break heavily to the Coalition in this election , in an environment where their established primary vote is falling? I thought that generally, the undecideds end up broadly following the trend of the decideds come polling day, but there may be others who’ve looked into that and have another take on it.
Current odds on Sportsbet:
Bass: ALP 1.64, Lib 2.15
Braddon: ALP 1.80, Lib 1.88
Labor still favourites in both seats.
This from Sky after dark
All supermarkets ran out of tin foil..
David Burton says Earth’s weather can be predicted using astronomy.
https://twitter.com/markgkenny/status/1127699755042086912?s=20
mundo
Labor from day 1 should have called the franking scheme “a tax rort” . Whether or not it is a rort would have then been the argument and made the Tories defend the “rort” . A simple “If you pay no tax then you should not expect a tax refund” would be all the explaining needed. Nice and simple for people.
Michael A @ #473 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 12:15 pm
As someone posted earlier, wtte, “circular” helps if you’re shit stirring.
@Michael A
I don’t think the Coalition are going to pick up any seats in this election apart perhaps Herbert and a remote chance of Lindsay.
The election in not on this Saturday.
2.6million Australian have already voted, with 400,000 voting yesterday.
It has become a circus. The laws of absentee voting are simply meaningless.
Imagine if a major political scandal broke tomorrow or Thursday or Friday. Too late to vote again for more than 3 million voters.
Whose people’s picks for surprise results come election night.
Mine:
New England might go down the wire.
George Christensen will be defeated in Dawson.
Labor possibly gaining or coming very close in Flinders, Kooyong, Deakin and Menzies.
Greens winning Higgins.
Tristo, I wouldn’t write off Labor in Higgins, based on that latest poll. Certainly it’s as likely Labor as Green.
Al Pal @ #482 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 12:23 pm
And allowing a last-minute political scandal to dictate the result of an election is a good thing because…why, exactly?
The single biggest failure in the whole campaign to date has been Di Natale.
The are four pieces of context that apply:
1. The deteriorating economic conditions for Australia’s poorest people.
2. Increasing signs that Global Warming is a Grim Reaper.
3. Di Natale came out immediately after the 2016 election promising his followers that the Greens intended to form government.
4. An opportunity to wedge and grandstand on Adani.
But, in the only head-to-head polling involving Preferred Prime Minister and listing Di Natale he barely made double figures. Put it the other way around. 90% of Australians prefer someone other than Di Natale as prime minister.
The Greens polling leading into the election was flaccid.
It has, during Di Natale’s election leadership, failed to get off that flaccid base.
Now you would think that this would be a signal for Greens posters to sink the slipper into Di Natale.
Nope. They are hopelessly addicted to killing Bill.
@Michael A
I predict the Greens winning Higgins will be extremely close, similar to their Prahran at the 2014 Victorian state election.
People choose to vote early knowing that something COULD happen to change their minds, but the degree to which people have voted early suggests that their decision was made LONG before the election was called.
@Boerwar
I predict if the Greens don’t do well and Mehreen Farqui is re-elected in NSW. She could very well become the leader of the Australian Greens. The party could shift in ideology towards an eco-socialist one as a consequence.
Tristo
Whatever happens on Saturday, the Greens will have a melt down.
Solomon is the only seat I think might just go against the tide, due to the budget woes of the Territory Labor government. But even that’s unlikely.
beteasy has braddon
Coalition
2.35
Labor
1.50
herbert
Coalition
1.40
Labor
2.80
I handed out HTVs in Makin yesterday afternoon. People came in ones and twos a few times there were about a dozen lined up. There was one AEC staffer to cross names off and give out the voting cards but the staffing was quite adequate.
About half took HTVS. Most of those took both. There was a nice lady handing out for the Libs but none for any other candidates.
There was only one who expressed a negative reaction, saying he would not vote for Shorten. The ones that took only Labor or Liberal were about even in numbers. Voters were across the range of ages.
Myself and the Lib volunteer had a good two hours chatting about things other than politics, looking at photos of grandkids and dogs.
lizzie @ #437 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:55 am
To tell you would spoil the impact. 🙂
Tristo, there’s that, but with Labor throwing a serious effort behind a top shelf candidate, I think Labor is in with a real shout.
On the topic of vote share and undecideds…
The effective participation rate at elections has been in decline since 2007.
EPR is a measure of voters casting formal votes as a percentage of the total number of enrolled voters.
State – 2007 – 2016
NSW – 90.29 – 85.84
VIC – 92.07 – 86.8
QLD – 91.06 – 86.89
WA – 89.67 – 84.85
SA – 91.82 – 87.97
TAS – 92.96 – 89.87
ACT – 93.63 – 89.61
NT – 83.2 – 73.21
That decline has been mirrored at State level. In Victoria for example the EPR at the 2018 State Election was 84.9%, down from 88.16% in 2014.