No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.
The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.
Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.
Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.
A new weapon in the armory of the right – voter guidance sites. Main one is riteon.org.au, based on the Sunshine Coast, which says it’s “Based on the bedrock of Western Civilization, free enterprise, freedom of religion within the law, free speech, scientific and practical measures to protect the environment, the strength of the family and protection of children from radical gender indoctrination.” (Oooh, that radical gender indoctrination! Turns straight kids gay and makes them submissive to their pedo priests! Or possibly just makes them a bit more tolerant of those who are different…)
They have done a series of how-to-vote cards for conservatives to “to get the preferences in the best order to keep them away from Labor and the Greens” for those who can’t work it out for themselves. And an email wiseing us up to the fact that Getup uses “US sytle vilification tactics” and is “Media manipulative” whereas Advance Australia and Rite-On itself use “fact-based education” and advance “Australian values”. No mention of feeble, doomed-to-backfire, satire like Capn GetUp.
And it tells me I receive their emails because I opted in via their website. Certainly don’t remember doing so. Might be fun if everyone deluged them with clicks and asking for downloads to give them a false sense of hope, but, me, I can’t be bothered.
I think it was the kid from the Sixth Sense who best summarized the LNP; “I see dead people”.
sustainable future @ #342 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:55 am
My feeling too.
Sceptic:
Too late!
I’m sorry guys but inequality will still be there if Labor win. Labor will make less decisions that negatively impact on people’s lives but there will still be losers. I do trust Labor more but there’s only so much a government can do, particularly given political realities.
Don’t get me wrong, there’s no case for a reelection of the current government – but life will go on regardless and Labor will be back. I’m simply disputing this commonly parroted line that if someone isn’t certain of a Labor victory they must be miserable or anxious.
Looking at the figures objectively – a case can be made for Labor not winning. What is the harm in simply acknowledging that? It doesn’t mean a person is wracked with nerves, anxious or miserable. I just feel that is such a cheap line to keep getting thrown out.
autocrat
Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:55 am
Comment #279
Oh shit ❗
The things one learns from reading these august pages.
Another handy hint some weeks ago – recipe for grief.
Shoot an elephant. (Not for me Mesdames et Messieurs).
Has Lord Downer of Bagdad actually watched the ABC lately…
jeff @ #342 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:59 am
Tassie and the Territories are never reported separately.
enjaybee @ #345 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:01 am
Excellent question.
I live in Tasmania and I’m pretty sure Braddon and Bass are lost.
“And that doesn’t even factor in the consequences of inaction on climate change”
Labor will do a lot more but still not enough. That is due to political reality – the fact that the required action will be too prone to scare campaigns over the short term.
ITEP
There’s this bloke who looks at the numbers objectively, even got a website, you should check it out, has Labor winning 79 seats.
https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/
FMD Maurice Newman going into bat for Abbott. What a horrible human being. Like attracts like.
All of this reminds me of –
Philip to the Spartans: “If I invade Lakonia you will be destroyed, never to rise again.”
The Spartans: “If.”
Yes, it is possible Labor will lose seats people don’t expect them to lose. They’ll also win seats people don’t expect them to win. That happens every election.
Every election also shows that polling is polling. If a party is going with a win, 90% of the time the party wins. Obviously individual seats don’t follow the national figures – otherwise every election would see one party getting 100% of the seats – but swings and roundabouts come into play.
Look at the Liberal launch.
Winners are grinners.
The gender breakdown is interesting. The coalition female vote is the higher than coaof lition male or Labor male or female. If the “uncommitted” 19% Better PM figures are indicative of the reported 17% uncommitted then it will be the female voters that make up their mind in the last days that could decide the winner.
ltep @ #355 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:03 am
FEWER decisions!!!
Enjaybee, the pickups in Victoria and Queensland will probably be enough to offset a couple of losses elsewhere. I’m not certain Labor will lose any, but the most likely would be a loss of one or two seats.
Meanwhile Trumps China tariff brainfarts are messing with the stock market
both Liberal & Labor leaders had visits scheduled for South Australia today – that suggests something about the status of Boothby
Robert Lynch
Thank you. I look forward to it. That sort of information may be very enlightening – especially from a booth the Liberals won last time.
Poor Lord Downer!
Weren’t you happy with her Ladyship’s free puff spot on Sky the other night?
sonar says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 10:02 am
I’m sure the Irish won’t be as keen to claim Dirty Eddie as they were to adopt the great Willie O’Fahengaue.
I can see a judicial inquiry coming into the Palmer/LNP Axis…. from The Guardian
A Facebook account linked to Clive Palmer’s United Australia party paid to disseminate an ad for the Queensland LNP.
On Sunday, a UAP-linked Facebook account named Australia Watch Now spread an ad championing rival candidate, Brad Carswell, who is standing for the LNP in the Brisbane seat of Lilley.
UAP candidates scramble for volunteers as Clive Palmer campaigns from Fiji
The slickly produced video is a 35-second profile on Carswell, detailing his work in abattoirs, pubs, trucking and trimming trees, all with the LNP logo visible in the top right corner.
The Australia Watch Now page appears to be run by the UAP. It uses the party’s distinctive yellow branding, shares UAP campaign material, and is authorised to an “S Sokolova, United Australia Party” in Brisbane.
The ad for Carswell has since been removed.
If the 17% undecided is true, landslides could happen. Did the vic election have a high number of undecideds?
Prediction, Newspoll will get it’s last poll wrong by 0.8%
William – would there be any value in putting “error bars” around the Bludgertrack prediction, based on what would happen if each of the polls feel +/- it’s MOE?
mundo
FWIW, Labor are favourites in Bass and Braddon.
Financial (?) bloke on 24 saying that the momentum is with Libs and there is always a late swing to the conservatives, which will just get them over the line.
ltep @ #366 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:41 am
I hope that you are not looking through rose coloured glasses.
Edit: he also mentioned the large number of undecideds, which he reckons will go to Libs.
The seats that some people are talking about Labor possibly losing (Herbert, Braddon, Bass, Lindsay) will all be getting a second term surge, at the same time as the incumbent’s party will be getting a national swing in its favour. On that basis, the prospects of any of them falling against the tide seem a little fanciful to me.
For a party that should win this election easily considering the chaos within the Government over the last 6 years and with many are claiming the ALP are well in front, damn they were quick to agree to the LNP first home owners policy. Too quick if there internal ALP polling said they had this election in the bag.
Someone commented on the no show of Morrisons wife on the hustings, Morrison does not need her. Shorten needs Chloe, big time. Bill looks as shonky as a shit house rat with a gold tooth and sometimes the glib one liners make him sound like one, he is not a likeable person probably the least likeable ALP leader in living memory, I am not even sure if Latham was less liked by voters in his time as ALP leader. Chloe Shorten has a lovely manner about her she seems kind and compassionate, very photogenic with a drop dead gorgeous smile. Really takes the hard edges of Bill and makes people believe Bill must be a good bloke to have such a lovely partner. Chloe will be beside Bill at every opportunity, his handlers will make it so. To take out anymore than this from Morrison not having his wife with him is just plain political naivety and or partisan hate.
ALP by seven
I agree mostly with ltep’s analysis, although I wouldn’t rule out an easy win for Labor.
Anybody going to the candidates forum at the ABC on Thursday?
Albo’s going to be one of the attendees.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-14/biloela-family-facing-deportation-loses-final-legal-bid/11110130
Been a bit too busy at the moment to spend much time on Poll Bludger, but I’ve been following the campaign pretty intently. Despite a very obvious tightening, I’m still quietly confident in a Labor victory. I’m just not seeing where the Coalition could pick up enough seats for a majority, especially if the polls we’ve been seeing coming out of Queensland are at all accurate. My prediction is we’ll see a very close result on TPP, but that it’ll translate to a modest but comfortable majority for Labor in the House of Reps. It’s all going to depend on how those preferences fall, however, especially in Queensland.
As much as I dislike Morrison, I have to say that I’ve been unpleasantly surprised by how good a campaigner he’s proved to be. Despite the unending stream of fail emerging from many an LNP candidate, he’s remained stubbornly on-message and avoided doing or saying anything particularly damaging. I doubt it’ll be enough to keep him in the Lodge after Saturday, but he’s performed far better than I had expected – I actually think he’s done a better job than Turnbull would have this time around.
Shorten continues to impress me, but I’ve come to accept that the things that impress a jaded, lefty partisan like me do not have the same effect at all on the broader electorate, who clearly haven’t warmed to Shorten yet.
Ladbrokes update.
Labor $1.12
Coalition $6.00
Is this a shortening of Labor’s odds?
mundo
“I live in Tasmania and I’m pretty sure Braddon and Bass are lost.”
Evidence please.
Ante Meridian @ #379 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:18 am
Lindsay isn’t really up for a second-term surge, but I have a hat picked out for Sunday lunch if Di Beamer doesn’t win. Especially after Scomo’s behaviour toward the Lib candidate whatshername.
In REAL election news, Shorten and Plibersek looked relaxed and happy this morning.
I wouldn’t given Braddon or Bass away off of the back of a couple of seat polls, one of which showed Labor ahead. Particularly given how wrong they were about super Saturday.
They’re obviously in play though given the visits by both leaders.
Speaking of the betting sites – as an occasional political gambler myself, I’ve found myself a recipient of many a promotional text from websites like Ladbrokes and Sportsbet (which I really should get around to opting out of, but I’m lazy like that), and, man, they really are milking Bill Shorten’s last name for all it is worth.
KJ, u crack me up.
But seriously, whose scats do we need to look at? And most seriously, can we change the name of the blog to that?
As for my last comment ALP by seven. Very happy to be wrong but not in the way PB’s would like. 🙂
As the election draws to a conclusion I get the feeling some may relate to this……
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=83&v=Vqbk9cDX0l0
Based on past elections with Shorten, Labor has generally done better than what the media have said, so I think the undecideds will go Labors way.
Dont look for evidence in mundos droppings.
A lot of the hand wringing on here is falling into the same error (imo) that the Tories and their boosters in the press have done – underestimating Shorten as a canny political operator. When the filth look back at the ashen ruins of what was their govt on Saturday night, they’ll finally get the message.
“In REAL election news, Shorten and Plibersek looked relaxed and happy this morning.”
See – evidence that Labor KNOW it’s lost!!
They’re relaxed because they’ve GivEn uP!!!
(Is that about right?)
“For a party that should win this election easily considering the chaos within the Government over the last 6 years and with many are claiming the ALP are well in front, damn they were quick to agree to the LNP first home owners policy. Too quick if there internal ALP polling said they had this election in the bag.”
Except that Labor are running on a very progressive agenda, one that is easily misrepresented. Of course they could have done an Abbott and promised the world before the election and done the opposite after it but they chose not to. They are prepared to lose some skin and state clearly what they will do. The win may not be as comprehensive but at least they will be able to say “We have a mandate for change.”
ltep says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 11:03 am
You seem to be saying, there’s no magic bullet to fix inequality, so why try.
It’s this all or nothing approach that is and has been as much a hindrance to progress as outright opposition.
Simon² Katich® @ #390 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:56 am
Obviously you start with a bench at Engadine Maccas.
Blobbit @ #391 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:30 am
The last I heard of Mundo, he was locked in the basement of his house by his missus for the duration of the Election.