No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.
The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.
Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.
Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.
sonar @ #257 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:02 am
And also he said a racist thing.
Zoidlord
Contrary to my previous pessimism, I’m told Boothby is still very close. Its why Shorten will be at a campaign event in Boothby at lunchtime today. Labor campaign resources are being concentrated there. Sturt, on the other hand, has been conceded.
Scott @ #297 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:28 am
Last night on the Ch 7 news the presenter said breathlessly we’ll catch up on all the days political news, and finished with…’just who will be our next Prime minister?’
jenauthor says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 10:28 am
Does he have a chance?
Keating enters the fray, denouncing Dutton as one mean ombre:
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/paul-keating-says-peter-dutton-is-the-meanest-person-in-australian-politics-in-50-years-20190514-p51n14.html
imacca
The makeup of the Senate will be far more important. If Labor (with the help of a few friendlies) can’t get a majority in the Senate, it won’t matter if Labor wins all 151 seats in the HOR.
BK @ #287 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:23 am
Peta Credlin is an ever present danger to democracy. I think she has a twisted mind.?
Peta Credlin orchestrated the attacks on Gilliard for Tony!.
Has it ever been more apparent just how selfish these Conservative pricks are. Morrison does them proud.
Money is the root of all evil (thanks Mum), and this lot are well rooted. It is, when it all boils down to it, about them getting more and keeping more of their fuckn money.
Well, I’m here to tell you that with their clothes off, they’re all the friggen same, except the monied ones are the most scared.
Zoidlord @ #290 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:23 am
I sincerely hope I do.
I’ll have mine with a delicious kasundi I made in summer and a glass or four of a very nice Shiraz….
Morrison touring a new home in Boothby and is still being forced to justify his latest brain fart two days into final week.
RE: the greens candidate’s conspiracy theory on Port Arthur
Oh dear. but not a suprise – the greens are often also hot-beds of anti-vaxers and passion/belief over logic/reason types.
One thing about the decline of the 2 party system and social media makign it easier for minor parties and indies to run is that many more nutters are running, but also – prior to anti-social media the nutters in all parties were harder to catch out.
Is the price of more representative democracy to have more nutters in the parliament?
If some posters here ever run for office they’d better make sure nobody links them to comments made here 🙂
Everyone has the right to speak their mind here, subject to WB’s rules and rule.
But it does get tiresome when Mundo, A_E, Itep, Briefly (every 2nd day) , and a few others express their anxiety here multiple times daily. It does suggest some level of concern trolling.
Listen guys …… please go into another room. This room is excited about Saturday, and looking forward to it. We do not need you to non stop inflict a pall of doom over the place. Own your own misery and keep it to yourself.
Please.
As of COB Monday approximately 2.6m people had cast their vote at an early voting centre for the 2019 federal election. Around 400k voted yesterday.
This compares to 1.5m pre-polled at the same stage of the 2016 federal election
GG
I suspect that’s how ScoMo treats his wife.
Psyclaw @ #312 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:39 am
I’ll try.
lizzie @ #316 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:41 am
Totally ingrained behaviour, yes.
How’s it going lizzie?
‘shellbell says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 9:12 am
The Hawke 83 cabinet consisted of All Stars save for Richo.’
Measured in terms of real, sustained, gains for the environment, Richardson was one of the most productive environment ministers ever. Richardson could not give much of a toss for the environment but he was able to do deals that resulted in environmental gains.
Hill achieved far more than Richardson because he was able to do deals with the Dems when Howard was desperate to get the GST up. Hill cared, and cares, passionately about the environment. You can image what he thinks of Hunt, Frydenberg, Morrison and Price.
After Hill and Richardson we have Burke running third and then daylight.
The systemic reason is that after the Greens locked up the environment vote was that there was no electoral play for any would-be current day Richardson in the Labor Party. And after the Dems folded there was no electoral play for any would-be Hill in the Liberal Party.
My view, FWIW, is that the environmental greens are deserting the Greens and going to Labor.
I have been a close observer of Federal elections for many years now. For all the vagaries of polling, they remain the best indicator of what might be the situation, especially an aggregator such as Bludger Track.
As its stands, on that indicator, Labor is still at 51.7. The Coalition has not led in any major poll since the last election.
For all the fire and fury of the election campaign, the attack ads, the Palmer blitz, and the Newcorp bias, the coalition has, at best, clawed back less than 1%.
My take, as with many others, is there is very little enthusiasm for either party. The vilification of Shorten has taken its toll. The Coalition for all its dire performance over the past 6 years and lack of any policy platform for the next 3 years, has been largely let off the hook.
Which leaves us at the tail end of the campaign where we started. Nothing much has changed. Labor is still in the lead. It’s hard to see what might happen in the last 4 days to upset the long term trend.
Of course, the polls might be wrong. It does happen. There might be a late surge to one side or the other for reasons we don’t yet know. That happens too.
But everything points to Labor winning a workable majority on Saturday.
Time to step back and consider the coming (likely) Bill Shorten Labor victory from an historical perspective. The last time a conservative (ie, non-Labor) government got voted out of office without winning at least three elections was almost 105 years ago, in September 1914. If, as I think will happen, Labor wins on Saturday, it will be a rejection of conservative government and its values without precedent for more than a century. Right-wing commenters need to reflect upon that.
Expressions of anxiety are a useful outlet, IMO.
ItzaDream says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 10:37 am
You profess to be a lover of Art, but you can paint some very ugly mental pictures. 🙂
I am not anxious, nor am I miserable. Whether Labor win or lose life will be much the same. I’ve made my prediction, which is for a Labor victory. If you cannot read other people questioning the accepted knowledge of the crowd that is on you.
I disagree with a lot of the statements people make on here and am entitled to state when that is the case. If people want an echo chamber that’s tough because I’m not going anywhere.
This is a site for discussion of politics and the polls. With people making random comments about the Coalition primary, or predictions of victories even greater than Hawke or Rudd it is fine to question that.
ItzaDream
I’m slowly getting back into normal routine and hoping for continuous improvement, healthwise. First task is to lose the weight I gained from too many carbs, and try to stay calm during election fever, to keep my BP under control. I’m sure it rises every time I see ScoMo. 🙂
The ALP has only held a majority in the HoR for 3 years since 1996.
lizzie @ #311 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:41 am
That’s something I am not interested in speculating about.
However, the campaign between Morrison’s “one man band” campaign and Shorten’s inclusive campaign is there on display every day.
I know how confidence tricksters work given the way I’m seeing folk deal with uncertainty even in the face of strong evidence supporting them.
With the stability of the PV s, the fact that LNP have to win seats and not lose any more, plus almost sky high odds against them , Labor are in.
All the rest is just letting your fears rule your thoughts.
”
Greensborough Growler says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 10:36 am
”
That is how it has been & that is how it will be
That will learn me to sleep in, again. Whew. But I’m caught up finally and I think I’ve captured the few election guesses. Morning all. I saw some early morning panic but things seems to be calmer now. I am prone to a good bit of nerves myself. Hang in there folks. And with that I thought I would repeating last night’s sentiments.
Palaczszuk and Andrews started slim and got themselves a bigger 2nd term. I’ll take a small Shorten majority.
#NoMoreMorrison
They have a cunning plan for that.
Going by Scott’s reaction to questioning today I’m thinking Labor with 100+
‘Whether Labor win or lose life will be much the same. ‘
Sorry, but that sounds pretty miserable to me…and I’m not expecting Utopia!
Ven @ #325 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:49 am
Morrison knows about women.
#NoMoreMorrison
ScoMo repeating “strong economy” over and over and…
Question: Joe asked you earlier about Paul Keating. He also said that he’s never seen a public figure in 50 years as “mean as Peter Dutton” and urged his electorate to drive a political stake through his heart. What do you say to that?
Morrison: I won’t get distracted by Paul Keating.
It’s the optics Scott the optics & they are ALL bad
“Whether Labor win or lose life will be much the same. ”
One thing it will cement though is the idea that a party should never go into an election with actual policies. An ALP loss will be blamed on two things – Bill Shorten being “unpopular”, and the changes to dividend imputation.
The second of those will mean for the next few election cycles, all parties will be going into elections promising more a unicorn at the bottom of everyone’s garden. It certainly won’t be a positive for honest campaigning
ltep says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 10:45 am
That may be the case if you sufficient means to support yourself, but then you may want to consider those who aren’t as fortunate and what the Society is doing to include them!
But that may be your problem, you don’t consider them!
ltep @ #324 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:45 am
Not for everyone.
Labor is intent in making a difference to lives, and I believe they can and will, for the better, for those losing out in the inequality divide.
The Polls in the Qld election all showed a Labor wipe out in Townsville. The local Murdoch rag trumpeting this every day. Labor won all three seats. It will be tough but a win in Herbert will not surprise me.
Quick reminder about single-seat polling.
Newspoll, a few days before the Longman by-election last July, polled over 1000 people. They got the ALP primary almost exact, but missed the LNP by more than 6% and the TPP by nearly 4%. In other words, either their only poll was the 1-in-20 predicted to be outside of MoE (5% chance of that!) or their polling numbers were shit.
Reachtel’s only poll was a week earlier than that, and they got nearly every number wrong by more than the MoE.
My conclusion is that we would be better off with scatomancy.
“Which leaves us at the tail end of the campaign where we started. Nothing much has changed. Labor is still in the lead. It’s hard to see what might happen in the last 4 days to upset the long term trend.
Of course, the polls might be wrong. It does happen. There might be a late surge to one side or the other for reasons we don’t yet know. That happens too.
But everything points to Labor winning a workable majority on Saturday”
I think you are right, but have a lingering concern that the ”better the devil you know” attitude will win – australians are pretty timid abiut changing governments. I sense the baseball bats have been put away and people – stupidly – are willing to give ScuMo the benefit of the doubt. but less so for Shorten – although his campaign has been excellent and impressive. but the negative reporting against him creates doubt and less willingness to change.
Labor has not done a great job in using the ample evidence that the current devil is shithouse. the Vic election campaign made better use of abbott, dutton. joyce and the turnbull knifing than the current federal campaign.
Morrison can’t talk about anything other than labor. It is time shorten and Co go on the offensive and say even loader “A vote for the LNP is a vote for infighting, inaction on climate and a less equal future”.
laboir has a better story to sell, and I think they’ll win more convincingly than the polls suggest. It could be a tenser election night than I was anticipating – I was hoping big swings from the first booths to indicate the swing was one and the government was crushed. Now we might not know the results on the night – the pre-poll votes are going to compliate many seats.
Things look to be going to plan for Scott
10:53
Question: You said that you hadn’t been briefed on the Liberal comment and the comments that he made. Have you now been briefed and what about the Liberal candidate in Fraser who previously argued for a ban on gay couples adopting?
Scott Morrison: They will be argued by party administrator and I don’t tend to argue them.
Question: How will they be dealt with, Prime Minister?
Morrison: I’m taking a question. You’ve already had one.
Question: How will you do that. We had to do this game last week.
Morrison: I’m not being distracted by it.
Question: How will they be dealt with?
Morrison: The party administration will do that and I’m not being distracted by it. We’re four days out by a distraction. What people are interested in is the home they are’ going to buy and the rent they’re going to pay, and under both of those things, the rent will be higher under the Labor Party.
Question: What do you want the party administration to do.
(He moves on to the next questions)
Scott Morrison is on track to become the shortest serving PM to lose the job at an election (~260 days), smashing the record set by Joseph Cook which has stood since 1914 (450 days).
Shorten’s popularity (whatever that means) is on a significant upswing, as we speak, despite if not because of the merde from the forces of mendacity.
ItzaDream @ #339 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 10:54 am
Well said.
And that doesn’t even factor in the consequences of inaction on climate change.
Tasmania no longer a state?? Onya newspoll!! or did i miss something in the report
The mathematics of the seats is of some concern. Labor currently holds 69 seats. Should they lose those two seats in Tasmania which have been discussed about and only one in Queensland and perhaps Lindsay in N.S.W. they are back to 65 which means they will have to pick up 11 to have a majority. Where are these 11 going to come from? It doesn’t look as though Boothby here in SA is going to fall.
Lord Downer speaks.
The full quote is love of money is the root if all evil and to drop the first 2 words (love of) distorts it’s meaning.
I will be handing out HTV forms on the only Liberal booth on the Woy Woy peninsula also scrutineering.
I have printed off the 2016 booth numbers and will report back the 2019 booth numbers when I have them. Needs a 1.1% swing and hopefully it will fall. Was a big swing to Liesl here in state election so maybe a Liesl factor in play.