No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.
The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.
Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.
Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.
With all this religious bullshit that has been floating around in the background about who should go to hell or heaven, can you even begin to imagine spending eternity with scammo and his rabid merry band of happy clappers?
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 2:20 pm
And what facilitates that?
The media’s failure to call out bullshit and to allow it to be repeated again and again without question.
ltep @ #644 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 1:57 pm
Mercedes aren’t purchased by the boofheads Morrison is targeting. He’s after the 30-50 year old white angry male with the giant Hilux/Amarok/etc dual cab ute that has no scratches or dirt on it and operates as a replacement for being taller, longer or more interesting. I suspect these people already vote for him.
The ones for the Division in which they are issued will be counted on Saturday night. The ones for other electorates have to be distributed to their home Divisions and will be counted the following week.
guytaur @ #637 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:25 pm
The media did not as a whole swallow the carbon tax lie.
The Guardian is one example that didn’t.
Perhaps Labor should look in the mirror as to why they can’t sell their messaging.
Rocket Rocket @ #624 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:27 pm
A Morrison will probably be the name of last traditional model of car. Out of date, poorly designed, defective motor and a verbiage guzzler.
The media coverage being good and fair, hahahahha
I don’t think any real green voter would think such a thing
“Guardian: “Exclusive – Higgins polling suggests Greens could take seat from Liberals in upset” Question – if the polls suggest something could happen, and it happens, is it an “upset”?”
What is more ridiculous is the broader Green framing of that article
The Greens, in their own commissioned polling, come in third behind Labor and would just as likely end up feeding their preferences through Labor
Sportsbet has it 1.55 Libs, 2.20 Labor and 5 Greens
Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #648 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:29 pm
The media I read (GA) calls out bullsh*t from all sides.
William at work
http://www.tallyroom.com.au/38759
ltep @ #644 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:27 pm
I’ll be selling mine now.
Rex Douglas @ #201 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:26 pm
Why? Propaganda shifts votes. Biased, shallow, one-sided “journalism” shifts votes. Murdoch’s millions in Free Political Advertising™ to one side and not the other shifts votes.
Why should blame not be leveled where blame is deserved?
a r @ #658 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:35 pm
Poor salesmanship loses elections.
a r @ #652 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:35 pm
Come off it.
You know Bill is 100% to blame
The Greens are a rotten party and need to be rebuilt from the ground up.
How could I make such an outrageous accusation, you say?
Let me ask you this, when was the last time the Greens won an election?
I rest my case. 😉
Rocket Rocket says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 2:27 pm
If they hadn’t closed the car industry, they could have set it up as the last bastion of fossil fuel cars and cornered the global market.
The closeness of the polls already suggests poor messaging from Labor.
If they indeed lose this un-losable election they need look no further than in their own mirror for who to blame …or the denial will kill them off entirely.
Cue Murdoch launching a tirade against Mercedes.
Each time we get a record temperature or heatwave the Libvertiser has a front page of a beautiful young seminaked couple smiling at the beach. or some dude giving a koala a drink of water. FFS. They should be showing the faces of dead people.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 2:41 pm
The closeness of the polls already suggests poor messaging from Labor.
The Greens on 10% are really in a whole lot of shyte then……..
It could take up to 5 days to charge the Merc off your rooftop solar, according to Murdoch tabloids
John Howard on a unity ticket with some Bludgers 😀
Sky News Australia
(@SkyNewsAust)
John Howard on Clive Palmer: The question of whether somebody is fit to be in parliament is a matter not for you or for me, but for the Australian people. The most extreme political movement on offer this election is the Greens.
“It could take up to 5 days to charge the Merc off your rooftop solar, according to Murdoch tabloids”
Rex would tell you that the media coverage has been good a fair, so there!!!
ltep @ #355 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 11:03 am
Labor is not going too fix what needs to be fixed the day after the election, it’ll take time to reverse the clusterfek of the last six years so patience petal. As for the actual election, being a Taswegian myself, I don’t see anything to change the HOR but the Senate is going to be a totally different ball game. I for one have absolutely no idea who could end up elected.
The timing of Rex to stir the pot.
Impeccable.
Are you havin’ a larf ???!!!
Of course Labor will look at themselves if they lose. It’s a standard process. Sadly for you Rex (and all of us really) it will probably result in a lot of left friendly policies being abandoned. You can rule out any of the assorted tax changes and any semblance of a climate change policy.
Nicko @ #668 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:47 pm
If you click on Newscorp websites or buy their print you’re just enabling them.
I know I rarely do.
Patrick Bateman
Mercedes aren’t purchased by the boofheads Morrison is targeting. He’s after the 30-50 year old white angry male with the giant Hilux
Morrison must be super-angry about Toyota announcing that they will make electric versions of their entire range, including the Hilux, in the next decade!
Rex Douglas @ #635 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:23 pm
If they can’t beat this circus they need to deregister the party and open a sandwich shop.
Rocket Rocket @ #641 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:27 pm
I can’t wait to tell the Liberals handing out HTVs and the people that turn up in their Mercs to vote for them this bit of information tomorrow!
ltep @ #671 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:49 pm
So are you saying they’ll blame policy itself rather than their poor selling of the policy …?
Apologies if posted already, some early voting breakdowns..
The poster in question isn’t a ‘real’ anything.
It all goes back to Rex’s hatred of Bill Shorten. Part of him would love to see Labor lose so that he could sheet total responsibility for it back to him.
Even if Bill wins you can guarantee Rex’s take on it will be that they should have won by much more. While the rest of us are celebrating the victory, he’ll be arguing that it is, in fact, a failure – Bill Shorten’s failure. That’s how he thinks.
Has anyone else noticed the absence of Pegasus over the last week or so?
Darn @ #679 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:54 pm
Don’t you think as I do that this Govt is so bad it should be wiped out ..?
“Millennial says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 2:36 pm
The Greens are a rotten party and need to be rebuilt from the ground up.
How could I make such an outrageous accusation, you say?
Let me ask you this, when was the last time the Greens won an election?
I rest my case. ”
BOOM!!!!
The cognitive dissonance borne of world class moral narcissism means this truth bomb will have as much impact on the warped thoughts of the Green political party lurkers around here as dragon fire does on white walkers
Fulvio Sammut:
—
Has anyone else noticed the absence of Pegasus over the last week or so?
—
Yes. Apparently, he was feeling a bit hoarse.
The bill haters crowd is out.
There is nothing in the state breakdowns, Morgan or betting to indicate other than a comfortable Labor win of 78-80 seats. Why all the hand wringing?
On a brighter note, we have been deluged by neighbourhood dogs dropping in for a visit over the last few days: big black Staffy-cross ones, little ferrety Jack Russels, effete city-bred Bichon Frises up for a canine holiday at Uncle Bushfire’s Dog Ranch, large pig dogs of indeterminate lineage (except that there’s something big in there somewhere), wire-haired medium Schnauzers, 3 Beagles escaped from their backyard and a pint-sized silver haired cattle-dog/Shi’tzu bundle who doesn’t know his arse-end from breakfast time.
All of these pooches are rescue dogs. They all get along fine together (with the Staffy-cross as nominal, but benign pack leader).
Her Indoors and I do not believe that these dog visits have anything to do with the stash of chunky liver treats and occasional cooked sausages we keep in the pantry. Definitely not. Or the Jatz bikkies, corn chips and cheese they sometimes score at Happy Hour here.
On Saturday nite all the owners of these cacophonous canines are assembling at Chateau BB for a Democracy Barbeque.
One of the wives asked whether we were “Labor or Liberal?”
When I replied “Labor” she said “REALLY?” as if she thought I was having her on. But they’re still coming. They’re alright actually, for Liberals. In fact, pretty good neighbours.
We also have a Nationals couple and two women who claim to have been seduced by Clive Palmer (well, his ads anyway).
Even a Green is coming. She’s a chef back in Sydney, and by God, can she cook!
Rest assured, I’ve stacked the invitation list in favour of Labor supporters, but that’s no guarantee there won’t awkward moments as the night progresses.
Nevertheless, I’m hopeful of a good evening. What we all have in common is the we live in Paradise, we’re all Australians, we all like a drink and a barbie, and we all love dogs.
(Dogs are invited too of course)
I remember laughing last night when RDN kept saying “we will …” as if ANY of his policies can be implemented when they have currently 1 seat out of 151.
They can propose all they like but the “will” word just does not apply.
Chris Kenny whingeing on SkyFoxNews…
“Not one Labor member or candidate have I been able to get to come on this program”: Chris Kenny
#kennyreport
#lifeaftertwitter
I can’t believe Labor is giving up the opportunity to get their message across to all 10 of Kenny’s viewers.
And the crazy aspect of the franking credits policy, which is sold as a laudable commitment to “paying for our promises”, is that from a macroeconomic standpoint there is no need for new spending commitments to be offset by tax increases, dropped tax deductions, or cuts to spending in other parts of the budget. The reason is that there is ample spare capacity in the economy at the moment. There is plenty of non-inflationary space for the federal government to increase its net spending. So the “pay-fors” are completely unnecessary.
If the economy were running hot – if unemployment were 1 or 2 percent, and there were close to zero underemployment and hidden unemployment – then it would be a different story. In that kind of economy, if the government wanted to expand a program or introduce a new program, it would need to “pay for” it in the sense of increasing taxes or cutting spending on other things in order to delete some non-government sector spending power and create enough non-inflationary space for the new spending.
But that is not the economy we have.
Dropping the franking credits might be justified from the point of view of reducing inequality, but it is not necessary to enable the ALP to do its planned extra spending in a non-inflationary manner.
The fact that franking credits ever existed at all is symptomatic of Australia’s bizarre and byzantine approach to supporting retirees. It was always a dumb move to pretend that a decent Age Pension for every person of retirement age is “unaffordable” and that we need to compel everybody to entrust their retirement incomes to the vagaries of financial markets.
I prepolled due to being booked in for a major back operation Friday ( just hope it finally happens ). If it does there is no way I can get to a polling place on Saturday and even if from what the surgeon told me I’ll be that far off the planet I won’t even know what day it is. So based on the info I’ve received, if any bludger was in the same possie what would they do? I have no idea when the polling is done in places like hospitals, is it on the day or prior? Anyhoo, my point is prepolling is necessary due to circumstances out of our control, whether the period is to long is open for debate . One of those things that can be ‘tweaked’ I suppose.
Bert, best of luck for the surgery! I would vote early in your position too.
Oh my happy aunt! You too!?
Is PB only for ALP happy clappers?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cs3Pvmmv0E
Nah, it’s also for sad sacks and grumpy, miserable old gits!
Some have questioned the suggestion that face-to-face from Morgan research might not reflect the true situation. Here are some figures. As we know, Morgan don’t always publish also, they will often do a poll on the day before the election, I have discounted this because it would have to be almost exclusively by phone.
Three figures for each date within a few weeks of an election. 1st is Morgan TPP Labor, Second is Newspoll and third is either Neilson or Essential depending on the year.
4/11/2001 54.5 48 48
3/10/2004 51.5 49.5 48 (morgan telephone poll 51)
2007 no data
2010 no data
1/09/2013 48 46 48
15/05/2016 52.5 51 51
29/05/2016 51 50 49