Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019

Aggregated state breakdowns from Newspoll suggest solid swings in Victoria and Queensland will tip a close result in Labor’s favour.

No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.

The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.

Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.

Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019”

Comments Page 15 of 27
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  3. Let me ask you this, when was the last time the Greens won an election?

    I rest my case.

    Northcote by-election 2017 in case this wasn’t already pointed out.

  7. SK

    I am no Labor happy clapper. I just don’t think the LNP can win.

    We are in Labor wins popular vote but loses seats territory for the LNP to win.

    The problem with that is Labor only needs to hold steady for a hung parliament and only needs one seat win over 2016 to win. Victoria alone will deliver gains for Labor. So Labor has to lose big in other states for the LNP to have a hung parliament hope let alone a majority

  8. Late Riser @ #544 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 12:58 pm

    Jackol, I know what you mean, but that guy wanted to win. He put his body on the line. The rules may change, but he’s an inspiration. (Just for the spectacle I secretly hope it’s allowed to continue.)

    It’s only a small step from there to marks for “artistic merit”.

  14. Has Pauline smelt the breeze?

    “Pauline Hanson says her One Nation party will work constructively with a Labor government as long as its measures are “right for the country”.

    Speaking from Perth before flying to Victoria this afternoon, Senator Hanson restated her opposition to Labor’s retiree tax, but said she was open to working with Bill Shorten on other matters should Labor form government.

    “I will work with a Labor government and I will pass its legislation if I think it’s right for the country and the people,” she said.

    READ NEXT

  16. I am no Labor happy clapper. I just don’t think the LNP can win.

    I respect that. I pretty much agree. I appreciate you not calling me a hand wringer.

  17. “Perhaps Labor should look in the mirror as to why they can’t sell their messaging.”…

    Oh dear… The Guardian is mainly read online by a relatively small number of people. In newsagencies you can find the Saturday Paper, an excellent progressive publication that, however, appears only once a week. The rest, on the progressive side, are just some websites… and stuff like facebook, twitter, etc…

    The mainstream printed media, radio and TV are all overwhelmingly behind the Coalition and helping their re-election campaign. In spite of that, they are going to lose. Why? Because you may try to paint a turd like a flower and spray some perfume on it…. but a turd is a turd is a turd.

    Labor are doing an excellent job under extremely difficult conditions. The fact that they are going to win in spite of having the mainstream media against, now also including the bastardised ABC, is a miracle of historical proportions. The much maligned Shorten will be able to defeat not only the Coalition but also the allegedly invincible Murdoch!…. Shorten will have to be remembered as one of the most successful and courageous political leader this country ever had.

  19. Bert

    Saturday night many will feel like they are off their heads on drugs from euphoria. So you won’t be alone 🙂

    Best of luck with the surgery

  21. Simon² Katich®

    Nah, it’s also for sad sacks and grumpy, miserable old gits!

    I am not sad or old!

    Ah, we’ll pencil you in for the “grumpy git” demographic then .

  22. Apologies if you took offense Simon. The comment wasn’t meant to be personal just reassurance that all is on track for a Labor win.

  23. Thanks sprocket for the early voting data… If there is a positive correlation between early voting and a leaning towards the ALP (based on Vic and the ACT, for instance), then Queensland is going to produce the shock of the century… A much needed redemptive act from the fact that it was Queensland that delivered victory to Turnbull in 2016.

  24. davidwh: “With a bit of luck Pauline may bring Shorten back towards the center.”

    No offense davidwh – but this is why the ALP have an uphill battle. A lot of people really do believe that what they’re proposing is some sort of “far left” program, rather than being pretty well just left of where the center was 15 years ago (if that).

  25. I’ve become somewhat sceptical of the “shy Tory” phenomenon. The WA Tory, as a species, seems more than happy to spew its selfish and entitled bile over all and sundry at the slightest opportunity. I can’t see too many of them holding back because they don’t want the pollster from Morgan (or whoever) to not like them.

  26. So far I have flicked a few thousand to the ALP and I have volunteered. Never done either before. I truely hope they win, however it’s all cool. No need to fret.

  28. Apologies if you took offense Simon.

    The word ‘handwringer’ has been rather over used today – I was tired of hearing it, not offended.

    As you know there are a lot of staunch supporters of the ALP on here and I get cranky when they jump on anyone who doesnt have the required level of positivity about their beloved political party.

  29. And I think davidwh’s tongue was firmly in cheek when making that comment, even in the absence of a smiley.

  32. Blobbit @ #719 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 3:35 pm

    A lot of people really do believe that what they’re proposing is some sort of “far left” program

    Then they’ve really missed the memo about how Australia is literally the only country still doing the franking credits thing, and has more generous negative gearing policies than the vast majority of other countries (I think including the U.S.).

  36. Mercedes announces it is phasing out petrol/diesel fueled vehicles.
    ___
    GG
    But did their product planners ask Scott Morrison first?

  37. “Then they’ve really missed the memo about how Australia is literally the only country still doing the franking credits thing, and has more generous negative gearing policies than the vast majority of other countries (I think including the U.S.).”

    Indeed. I boggle at the beliefs of many of my fellow Australians.

    (BTW, how does one quote on this thing – do youse all do it with those extensions youse keep whittering on about?)

  38. Hats off to you, Sgi.

    All I, and, I suspect, many others here, have done is pontificate and argue on this blog.

  39. Rex

    I don’t want to be unfair to you. I am sure you would like to see the Coalition wiped out as you say, as most of us here would. But I’m equally sure that for some reason you have a huge blind spot where Bill Shorten is concerned, which prevents you from giving him any credit at all for what he has achieved for the party over the last six years. All you see is that someone else – anyone else – could have done it so much better.

    That is why I say that if Labor were to lose, you would relish the chance to really sink the boots into him. For you it would be all his fault, regardless of what other factors were involved. Your antipathy towards him would have it no other way.

  41. Weather on PB. It rained in Bangkok! First rain in about 4 months. Temperatures over 36 for the the last two months!

    Humid and sticky though. More rain on the way. Handing out HTV’s going well at the Embassy. No Tories in sight.

  43. Climate change is real. Fact

    But for the love of God please know that Australia can do absolutely nothing I repeat absolutely nothing to change global warming this is a scientific fact as admitted by CSIRO in senate estimates or any credible scientist in the field. Global warming is happening and it is anthropogenic in nature. Does that mean we should do nothing, no it does not we should do our fair share as rich country and a good global citizen. And for those who think that China, India, Brazil, Indonesia etc will look to Australia and change there climate policy is dangerously naive.

    Anyone who believes Australia can by reducing carbon emissions by 45% affect climate change in Australia just does not know the science. Poor souls in Australia have taken the bait hook line and sinker they actually believe Australia by reducing carbon emissions can directly affect Australia’s temperature, that is just plain sad that people could be so dumb. Directly linking reducing Australia’s carbon emissions and the great barrier reef is a lie, a strait up lie.

    If we want to do our best to save the reef we should be spending some of the billions about to be spent on carbon reduction to stop land clearing in the catchment area and reducing chemical and nutrient runoff, this is the only real and tangible thing we can do to help the reef. The rest of the billions should be used to help poorer nations improve their environmental impacts, land fill in SE Asia to help reduce the millions of tonnes they put into the ocean each year, help reduce the burning of forests in Indonesia and Brazil or solar panel setups for poor households in India and Bangladesh. Will we do any of this, No better to lie and get votes.

  44. Nice to read

    @MayneReport
    Could listen to Paul Keating all day – fabulous 30 minutes with Jon Faine this morning. Agree with Keating that @billshortenmp will lead the most capable and competent Labor Cabinet since Hawke’s 1983 team.

  45. I didn’t watch qanda last night, but feedback from friends who did, said Helen Haines candidate for Indi, was great

  47. I’m confused.

    ALP now 52-48 in Morgan and Essential and people here sound more pessimistic than when it was 51-49?!

  48. I don’t think their is a shy tory anymore, given the platform they are given in the murdoch press, sky news and fox news… and alot of it leaks onto the ABC, it is all out their in our faces these days.

  50. Steelydan,
    It’s called, leading by example. We can, and we should do that in Australia. The rest of the world notices, be assured of that.

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