No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.
The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.
Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.
Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.
Jordan, essential? Where did you see that? Or do you mean last week’s?
I don’t know C@t, but when one of the regular and prolific posters, whatever their politics, disappears without explanation, it does cause concern, to me anyway.
I hope everything’s well with her.
Trump White House in chaos and dysfunction darting between trade war and threatened real war with Iran: NYT reporter
Donald Trump’s famously undisciplined White House is under further chaos due to the president’s decisions on the world stage.
“Tonight the jarring chaos currently under way. Financial markets roiling amid a trade war. Stocks on the Dow plunging over 600 points as China hits us back on tariffs,” MSNBC anchor Brian Williams reported.
“Then tonight we learned about contingencies for U.S. Troops going to war with Iran as the president says, ‘we’ll see what happens.’ Plus, Trump plans a new meeting with Putin, Rod Rosenstein takes aim at Jim Comey, and Trump’s own FBI director appears to be his next big target,” he continued.
For analysis, the host turned to New York Times chief White House correspondent Peter Baker.
“We’re in a tariff war with China. We may be in a shooting war with Iran. We are obviously in a political war between the president and Congress,” he explained.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/05/trump-white-house-in-chaos-and-dysfunction-darting-between-trade-war-and-threatened-real-war-with-iran-nyt-reporter/
Blobbit @ #729 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 3:42 pm
Extensions make it easier, but you can manually do a blockquote too. The following image has a short description.
lizzie says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 3:41 pm
Bert
Good luck with the surgery. Anaesthetics and painkillers are bloody marvellous nowadays.
A few years back I had to have micro-surgery to repair my hand after a work related accident cut the nerves to three fingers. After coming out of the anesthetic the nurse asked me how I felt and I said “bloody fantastic” or wtte,……. at which she patted me on the head and said…”it’s the drugs sweetie”……lol
For what it’s worth: Uhlman’s package last night talked about the confidence of the Labor campaign of a large break their way by the end of the week.
On another note, surely if the Murdoch rags are going to unleash dirt on Shorten, tomorrow would have to be the day? Can’t imagine they’d go much later. In the NSW election they made their big play on the Tuesday morning of the final week.
I think the small l liberal is having a hard time though, like David, who are looking at the current Liberal party in disgust.
‘sprocket_ says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 3:03 pm
Chris Kenny whingeing on SkyFoxNews…
“Not one Labor member or candidate have I been able to get to come on this program”: Chris Kenny’
Sludge dwellers are going to miss their feeds!
Bert
All the best with your surgery!
I mean last week’s. Sorry
Karvelas Afternoon Briefing about to start.
News 24
“Not one Labor member or candidate have I been able to get to come on this program”: Chris Kenny
_____
And not one Coalition minister has been allowed to get close to being on ANY non-Sky program.
Raw HTML, I should have thought of that 😉 I presume the extension does the quoting of the author name automatically, which is the really handy bit
Just to correct your grammar Matt31 to the new speak, I think you mean:
‘…surely if the Murdoch rags have unleashed dirt on Shorten, tomorrow was the day they did it?’
Oh, I forgot to mention, I handing out CFMEU flyers this week.
They’re spruiking the Labor candidate, with the tagline being, “If you care about Coal Mining, send a Coal Miner to Canberra”, for rather self-evident reasons.
“I will work with a Labor government and I will pass its legislation if I think it’s right for the country and the people,”
Di Natale/Hanson same old same old.
Millennial @ #757 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 3:57 pm
That’s the way to go for sure! 🙂
Something to cheer the gloomy squad up.
———————————————–
with allegations the save Jim Molan camp is taking volunteers from the save Tony Abbott camp.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
In messages seen by The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, an Abbott supporter labelled Senator Molan’s campaign “sAbbottage”. Another member of the party’s state executive said Senator Molan “may very well cost us a marginal seat”.
“There is white hot anger at the ringleaders – Walter Villatora, [Mr] Burke, John Crawford, Jeff Hudson – who are helping lead the campaign,” the source said.
“They’re all based in Warringah and their unauthorised campaign is confusing voters. These are people who claimed to support Tony but who may now cost him the seat.”
Senator Molan said claims his campaign would undercut Mr Abbott were “absolute rubbish” because his volunteers were also allowed – and encouraged – to hand out how-to-vote cards for Mr Abbott and other lower house candidates.
Meanwhile, Mr Abbott’s volunteers have been asked not to hand out for Senator Molan.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/jim-molan-s-rogue-campaign-labelled-sabbottage-as-it-poaches-volunteers-from-tony-abbott-s-team-20190514-p51n3f.html
Bert,
Good luck with the surgery. I hope they let you watch ABC on Saturday night!
Good on Molan.
Oh dear.
The ABC balance is out of whack. Usual debate between Emerson and Hewson.
Now that means Labor v Greens. 🙂
“It all goes back to Rex’s hatred of Bill Shorten. Part of him would love to see Labor lose so that he could sheet total responsibility for it back to him.
Even if Bill wins you can guarantee Rex’s take on it will be that they should have won by much more. While the rest of us are celebrating the victory, he’ll be arguing that it is, in fact, a failure – Bill Shorten’s failure. That’s how he thinks.”
The thing that gives me the most confidence this week is the fact that Shorten hasn’t really failed at anything at all. There has been some minor missteps (ie. his handling of the issue of winding back corporate tax cuts, the s.41 ‘extreme vetting’ process) but generally his political antennae has been first rate.
Therefore, if Labor’s has decided that there is no need too counter the liberals seemingly effective attack ads the way that KRudd did back in 2007, then at the moment, I’ll trust Bill.
If Bill decides to campaign in seats A, B & C, then I’ll trust his judgement. If he seems calm and poised for victory, that’s a good sign.
… It’s just that my spidey-sense is telling me that this thing may not turn out to script. I hope my spidey-sense is way off. It was in 2016 with Drumpf and in March this year with NSW Labor, even though in the past it has been a good servant and rarely wrong on picking political outcomes. It’s probably a sign of creeping senility …. So, I hope it’s wrong again, but in a good way and I can spend Sunday happily eating my hat over a few bottles of premium Shiraz with our Hanrahan Mundo. …
And this is important news?
Steelydan: ‘Anyone who believes Australia can by reducing carbon emissions by 45% affect climate change in Australia just does not know the science. Poor souls in Australia have taken the bait hook line and sinker they actually believe Australia by reducing carbon emissions can directly affect Australia’s temperature, that is just plain sad that people could be so dumb.’
Steelydan, I read your piece and find it a little disturbing. I don’t think anyone is claiming that Australia is going to fix world emissions by itself, what Australia should be doing is doing something about OUR emmissions so commensurate to our contribution to total emmissions.
The other point to having these goals is that we can accommodate the transition relatively painlessly. For instance, we will not build any new coal fired power stations that may become stranded assets. We will also have built a fleet of wind/solar farms for our power. This is easier done over time and leaves us well placed to more rapidly transition in 30 years time, when it is very obvious that urgent action is required.
C@tmomma @ #750 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 3:49 pm
Eeeer, it’s called catch up and pulling your weight rather than bludging on others.
Where are they now?
https://twitter.com/i/status/1128158529380966400
Rex Douglas @ #663 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:36 pm
Life is so simple in Rexworld.
sprocket_ @ #693 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 3:03 pm
Sprocket
Well may we ask why on earth would they want to talk to that dipstick. I’m justly proud of the Labor mob for upsetting the ignoramous. Crikey!!
Bert
Very best wishes for the op. Take care
“On another note, surely if the Murdoch rags are going to unleash dirt on Shorten, tomorrow would have to be the day? Can’t imagine they’d go much later. In the NSW election they made their big play on the Tuesday morning of the final week.”
The NSW election big play was made on Monday night. In time for Tuesday morning breakfast TV and early edition newspapers.
If there is anything, I suspect it will be a pincer movement: Newscorpse will run a sob story about female staffers in Shorten’s office, which the LNP official social media accounts will hit on. Simultaneously, unofficial LNP internet trolls will ramp up to the max the old rape allegation story (which the LNP will disavow any knowledge off, yet give a nod and wink to).
I wonder though, given last week’s hit sheet on shorten over his mum, whether newscorpse and the LNP may just let this all go through to the keeper and simply double down on their current scare campaigns.
Sgi @ #726 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 3:37 pm
Sgi
Good on you. We dobbed in a bit more to keep that climate change on loop til Wed night. Fingers crossed from now til Sat night.
I’m just an old Phart who has voted in every election since the days of Gorton and McMahon.
I’ve voted Liberal and ALP – depending on the incumbent and quality of Government. My favourite PM ever was Keating. He was an outcomes driven politician.
Now, another election. Jesus they come around quickly.
The current mob don’t deserve to be re-elected. Thank you Mr Dutton. Thank you Mr Turnbull.
Shorten has been a more effective opposition leader that I ever imagined. He was a very competent minister, but I never saw him as the nations PM.
I still don’t. But I will get to watch him try.
There is no way he will not be elected. Three million have already voted. 55 per cent at least will have ticked the ALP box.
The incoming economic storm clouds will test him – but that’s why we elect Prime Ministers.
And before too long we will be back again in this website talking about the next election.
Fulvio Sammut @ #679 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 2:54 pm
Has anyone else noticed the absence of Pegasus over the last week or so?
_______________________
Yes I noticed this the other day. She’s a classy lady, and I hope she’s just taking a break from all her haters on here.
Blobbit @ #754 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 3:57 pm
Yep. KayJay has the links for Firefox and Chrome handy and if he’s on atm might be able to assist, but if you use chrome you can search Google for “PB Comments Plug in”. This is what I get when I do that.
https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/pb-comments-plugin/onjomgpfepfmffelldjhpapljdfiodpi
I’m not sure about Firefox.
Late Riser @ #713 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 4:15 pm
Chrome Extension
https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/pb-comments-plugin/onjomgpfepfmffelldjhpapljdfiodpi
Firefox Plugin
https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/pb-comments-plugin
I just woke up after my afternoon nanny nap.
Time to view the good news.
“Steelydan, I read your piece and find it a little disturbing. I don’t think anyone is claiming that Australia is going to fix world emissions by itself, what Australia should be doing is doing something about OUR emmissions so commensurate to our contribution to total emmissions.
The other point to having these goals is that we can accommodate the transition relatively painlessly. For instance, we will not build any new coal fired power stations that may become stranded assets. We will also have built a fleet of wind/solar farms for our power. This is easier done over time and leaves us well placed to more rapidly transition in 30 years time, when it is very obvious that urgent action is required.”
PeeBee. I agree. However, let’s not totally dismiss the point that Steely is making. Rather, let’s also focus on what we can do that will make a difference to our environment and help mitigate against global warming, regardless of how the rest of the world goes about getting its shit together. The one single biggest and best thing we can do is to stop native vegetation clearing dead in its tracks. That means attacking the root cause of the land clearing orgy – which is predominately cattle grazing for export. This is a huge deal, as there is real jobs and lots of money on the line. It’s a massively bigger and more complex task than cutting emissions by a simple and sensible ETS mechanism. Politically it’s massively fraught as this industry has incredible political support from both sides of politics and the Greens and animal libers really haven’t come to gripes with the kind of grand political bargain that is needed to get done, what needs to be done.
So there we have it according to Karvelas today’s big debate issues are
Is Dutton a mean politician as Keating alleges?
Does the PM believe Gays are going to Hell?
Its a shame that Paterson is no longer marginal. In 2016 both campaigns came up to the Hunter Valley. This year nothing. Dont get me wrong, happy that ALP will win it easily, but would be nice to see some announcments for the Hunter region besides the M1 Expressway link to Raymond Terrace.
@guytaur… it’s the last few days of a campaign, that’s usually the level of discourse.
Australia shouldn’t be enabling other countries to pollute the atmosphere by exporting vast amounts of thermal coal mined here.
Not so Fulvio – work & other commitments preclude my physical contribution like C@t and a few others – but I put my $$$ not on the bookies, but into ALP coffers to pay for advertising and such.
adrian
Rex is so simple in Lifeworld.
Fixed that for you. 😉
jenauthor @ #784 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 4:23 pm
as I do with GetUp!
@Bert
You take care of yourself ya here!?!
“So there we have it according to Karvelas today’s big debate issues are
Is Dutton a mean politician as Keating alleges?
Does the PM believe Gays are going to Hell?
”
This is the great media coverage we have been getting of the eletion… on our ABC too!
@Steelydan
We are part of the problem so we are part of the solution
Don’t be fuxking lazy sods.
@BH
Not sure how to @ on here evening though I’ve been peeping since 07 i think? PB is a daily ritual for me, even outside of cycles.
It was a great ad, and I hope my recent contribution helped it run further. I generally stick to QLD and VIC elections in terms of cashish and feet on the ground. Not this time, something must be working for folk like me
guytaur @ #781 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 4:21 pm
Calm down and enjoy your picture of a tired old man sipping tea. 🙂
Nice to see a positive news story about Shepparton for once. If you look at the media view of us normally, we are some drug infested 3rd world backwater, which is crap.
Lachlan
says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 4:27 pm
Nice to see a positive news story about Shepparton for once. If you look at the media view of us normally, we are some drug infested 3rd world backwater, which is crap.
_____________________________________
Don’t forget about the cheap fruit.
Morrison needs to reveal whether he believes all the Pentacostal beliefs including gays going to hell and the literal interpreation of the bible which includes the universe being created in 6 days.
The last thing Australia needs is a religious fundamentalist of any religion trying to influence peoples lives based on their fundamentalist religious beliefs.