Three new polls over the last week, from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, have made next to no difference on BludgerTrack’s reading of the two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection. The only change to report is movement from the major parties to the minor parties on the primary vote, with One Nation in particular bouncing back a little after a recent slump. I am not calculating a trend for the United Australia Party at this point – that will only change if I can find the time for it.
With little change in the state breakdowns, the story there continues to be consistent with both sides’ assessment of the situation everywhere except Queensland, where Labor is being credited with what seems an inordinately big swing. It should be noted that BludgerTrack is currently a lot richer in national than state-level data, which should hopefully change reasonably soon with the publication of breakdowns from Newspoll. As ever, it will be interesting to see what these numbers have to say about Queensland.
Newspoll and Ipsos both provided leadership ratings for the week, which caused both leaders to drop slightly on net approval, and resulted in no change whatsoever on preferred prime minister. However, this involved a cancelling out effect of two sets of numbers that were dramatically different from each other, after fairly dramatic bias adjustment measures were applied to Ipsos. So if you look carefully at the leadership ratings trend charts on the BludgerTrack display, the Ipsos results for preferred prime minister and Scott Morrison’s net approval show up as fairly dramatic outliers.
The normal form of Ipsos is to produce more flattering leadership approval numbers than other pollsters, particularly in relation to the Prime Minister. Scott Morrison continued to record a net favourable rating of +3% in the latest poll, but this was seven down on last time, and five worse than his previous low point. There was none of this from Newspoll though, which recorded next to no change. Similarly, it was a case of up from Ipsos and down from Newspoll for Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, with the latter carrying slightly the greater weight.
The full display is available through the link below – and, as ever, don’t miss Seat du jour, today detailing with Corangamite.
Late Riser, 53-47 on all polls for me and for the final tpp on the election 52.7 to the A.L.P.
Sohar says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 9:23 am
The debate fact checker seems to have been a fairly lazy exercise.
They seem to focus on claims that they had checked in the past.
New claims seem to get a free kick.
1 Labor
2 Greens
3 ummmm…
In the Senate ALSO!, if you want good government.
Darn @ #130 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 9:39 am
Tottenham scored in the 95th minute, I can assure you! Lucas Moura scoring an incredible hat-trick.
Warning Dutton presser coming up soon on border protection. no doubt a fishing boat has been sighted near Java.
The process of order vote for the racists etc on the ballot does seem ripe for a satirical piece from Juice Media
Dan doesn’t that Senate voting strategy basically equally preference the Liberals, One Nation and the Nazi-esque brigade?
”
zoomster says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 9:02 am
Well, this makes Napoleon sound quite progressive —
https://www.dummies.com/education/history/world-history/napoleon-bonapartes-lasting-contributions/
Put in place a legal system which still exists today, reformed the economic system (including creating a central bank), established religious freedom, abolished slavery and serfdom, ended discrimination against the Jews, promoted education (including for girls) and improved literacy levels.
Hard to work out why someone who says they’re Green would dislike him.
”
zoomster
Because he started the World war series(like Star Wars). His war can be termed as Pre-World War (Like the later Star War movies).
So has anybody got an idea where the Liberal Party Launch will be?
So which electorate would be chosen? There’s no ALP seat really to target for picking up…
So which of their seats will they try to defend by hosting the event?
Corangamite – No, they’re not going down the Geelong Rd.
Chisholm – written off
La Trobe, Casey, Deakin, Flinders, Aston – all sitting members backed Dutton – do you want to give any of these people a lift?
So I reckon it will be in a central and familiar location. My money is that it will be in the Sofitel Ballroom. It’s where they hold their election night functions. However, they might want to close off a few of the partitions to make it look more crowded…
It’s a strange election – oddly quiet, which feels quite similar in mood to last year’s Victorian State Election down here in the progressive corner of the country, but who-the-heck can predict what’ll happen in outer suburban Sydney or in the great wastelands of Queensland?
Quite strange now being in a (very) safe Labor seat after being redistributed out of Melbourne where at least there was usually an effort made at competition. I’ve received one pamphlet from my local MP, one William Shorten, and I’m inclined to give him my 2nd preference at this point.
Of course – my internal debate is about Senate preferences and when / whether to exhaust. I did say last time around that I’ll exhaust my preferences before the ALP until they cease their support for boat turnbacks and offshore detention, so I guess I’ll stop before them, unless there’s a genuine case that to do so would risk a Tory or even worse outfit getting an extra Senator.
jc – You should number until you genuinely don’t prefer one candidate over another. So if you prefer the Labor candidate exactly the same to the One Nation, UAP, Love it or Leave etc, don’t number them.
Think – if it is between two of these candidates for the final seat – is Australia better off with one of these two holding the seat?
Whilst purity can give you a warm feeling, your actions may result in Australia being dragged further to the right – is that what you want?
This is spectacular: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-09/lake-eyre-is-a-wild-river-system-left-to-run-its-course/11035506
Then there is the contrast with Murray Darling basin….
Senate preferencing is funny. I wasn’t sure if I should add Liberals as my last pick, just in case the final seat came down to a Lib vs One Nation or Palmer.
In the end I decided not to as I’m sure Jim Molan will cause just as much trouble for the conservatives as one of the crazies.
shiftaling @ #156 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 8:01 am
How so?
”
Victoria says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 9:22 am
Tricot
This is another tweet from guy I posted earlier suggesting swing to Labor in WA
Pete EVANS
@911CORLEBRA777
·
5h
There are many reasons for this. Western Australia usually swings to the conservatives, but the infiltration of far right elements into the Liberal Party, & the way they treated Julie Bishop (who is from West Australia) is a big reason
”
It is also because Cormann betrayed MT & JBish in the August leadership ballot for Peter Dutton. What Cormann was stupid ( because he did not count the votes correctly for Dutton), ungrateful (he was Acting PM by MT) & Deceitful (he did not vote for JBish).
nath says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 9:44 am
Don’t we love looking at historical events and players through our eyes, today!
Hard to find anyone who you couldn’t make look like a bastard now.
Senate preferences that get to the Greens are likely to stay there and not be distributed any further, because the Greens will either elect a senator with less than a quota or stay in the hunt right to the end without being eliminated.
Nevertheless, filling in further preferences would be a good idea, just in case.
Dan this is from Kevin Bonham on that question:
“Q – I’ve numbered, say, 17 boxes and I don’t like any of the other parties/candidates. Should I stop now?”
“A – You certainly can, but it’s more effective to keep going. One of the most important messages in the system is that while you can stop when you run out of parties that you like, this may result in a candidate you strongly dislike beating a candidate who you think is the lesser evil. Just voting for the parties you like and then stopping is not making the best use of your vote.
“A lot of voters – especially a lot of idealistic left-wing voters – are a bit silly about this and worry that if they preference a party they dislike they may help it win. Well yes, but your preference can only ever reach that party if the only other parties left in the contest are the ones you have preferenced behind it or not at all! If that’s the case then someone from that list is going to win a seat, whether you decide to help the lesser evils beat the greater evils or not.
“To make best use of your vote, you should only stop when one of the following happens:
“1. You could not care less which of the remaining candidates wins (assuming that at least one is elected).
“2. You so strongly dislike all the remaining candidates that you feel morally opposed to even helping them beat each other.
“3. Although you actually dislike one of the remaining parties less than one or more of the others, you want to exhaust your vote in protest to encourage that party to listen to your concerns. (To make your point effectively, I suggest you send that party a letter after the election telling them you did this, since they won’t be able to work it out from your vote.)
“Of course, some voters just “don’t have the time” to number more than a few squares, or reckon it’s not worth the effort for the sake of one vote. It’s up to you whether voting effectively is a real priority for you or not. I’m just suggesting what you should do if it is.”
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/04/how-to-make-best-use-of-your-2019.html
martini henry says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 10:00 am
I saw some yesterday.
Barney in Saigon
says:
Don’t we love looking at historical events and players through our eyes, today!
Hard to find anyone who you couldn’t make look like a bastard now.
_________________________________
Nah. A mass murdering asshole in the nineteenth century has always been a mass murdering asshole. Beethoven lived at the same time as Napoleon, yet somehow managed not to commit crimes against humanity.
“Senate preferences that get to the Greens are likely to stay there and not be distributed any further, because the Greens will either elect a senator with less than a quota or stay in the hunt right to the end without being eliminated.
Nevertheless, filling in further preferences would be a good idea, just in case.”
Or they could end up tipping a third Labor Senator over the line
The Guardian on line this morning has a photo of Ad Man from Mad Men pressing the flesh in Burwood (I take it in Melbourne’s east)
Flanked by security guards
Security guards who by appearance would appear to describe the Liberal base – along with the older demographic who remain rusted on as a Menzies legacy
You would imagine that the security personnel would not be so prominent
Mind you the appearances are normally restricted to secure Liberal Party Member functions or the business premises of “we want to pay no tax” Liberal supporters
shiftaling @ #167 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 8:18 am
OK. That makes sense now. Thanks for that.
For my part, probably I couldn’t envisage a situation where I prefer Anning’s Party to the “F^%* Off We’re Full Party” or vice versa so I will leave those blank. Does this really mean that I’ll be indicating a preference for One Nation? it’s unthinkable.
It’s even caused me to wonder if I should strategically preference the least popular Nazi party to deny votes to what I consider likely to be the more popular – so would I preference no-name Nazi to Anning?
In any event, I think I am coming to the position that my votes will definitely need to exhaust before they go anywhere near One Nation, but Bonham’s article has given me great pause for thought.
What the heck!
sportsbet just keeps getting worse for the Coalition – now 5.00, from 4.25 midnight last night, and 3.85 before the Daily Telegraph’s ‘own goal’. Labor 1.16. Coalition 19% implied chance.
Betfair Coalition still going up (as in down) – now 6.20
Sounds like that ‘million dollar bet’ was placed just in time.
nath says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 10:22 am
Excluding his success, how was he so different to his contemporaries at the time?
The problem is ltep is that as a migration lawyer I work at the coalface day and night to help refugees. The deliberate harm I have seen done to my clients and their families cannot be unseen, condoned, or supported in any way, shape, or form. The likes of you (and many others here) may be able to rationalise the so-called deterrence factor as being in the National Interest, or perhaps you may even personally despise the party on refugee stuff yet believe that still supporting the ALP is for the ‘greater good’ regardless. That is your right to do so of course, and I’m not going to advocate for anyone here to change their vote.
Now – will the ALP put a slightly more friendly face on this programme? Possibly. It would likely be in my clients’ better interests to have a government that at least presented a slightly compassionate face, rather than the Dutton-esque mask of indifference-at-best that has infected the entire bureaucracy at the moment. Are many other issues important to me? Indeed.
Ultimately I’m not in the ‘The ALP and the Tories are basically the same’ school, and you’re right – I would prefer an ALP Senator over the Tories, PHON, Hinch, or any of the other flakes and conspiracy theorists further out there on the right fringes. Guess I’ll suck it up.
Rocket Rocket @ #174 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 10:25 am
Or that the million dollar bet was laid off with the other agencies.
Late Riser @ #106 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 8:58 am
Very good point, LR. The patient had cystic fibrosis and a lung transplant followed by chronic infection with a drug-resistant mycobacterium (a rare situation, but one I did some work on back in the late Jurassic…). There was no other treatment available, and the likely outcome would have been death within 6 months. The significant thing here is that this allowed time to select and modify specific phage types, and measure their effect. That it probably postponed death was the wow factor that got it into Nature, but the key thing from a clinical perspective was the implication for chronic non-life threatening infections, such as we are struggling with, such as skin and soft tissue infections and XDR TB.
Phages are viruses which evolve to target specific structures on the surface of specific bacteria. Antimicrobials are non-specific – they are usually modifications of biological products of soil fungi & bacteria which have a “class effect” on some types of bacteria without poisoning eucariotic hosts, such as us. The specificity of phages means that, like antivirals, we have to be very specific about what we use and when, and resistance by evolution of biological variation is inevitable. Interestingly, this turns out to be a model of the limits of modelling & AI: even big data and complex algorithms cannot adequately model the evolved analog complexity of biological information systems. The only way to do this is by trial, error, and waiting the hours and days required to so if one guessed correctly – and then recognising the result. This is why humans will never be replaced by “expert” management systems (or people).
Phew – Happy to see my BTL stategy of numbering all candidates mostly endorsed Dr Bonham’s advice.
From The Shovel:
http://www.theshovel.com.au/2019/05/09/daily-telegraph-bill-shorten/
I think it was Kevin Bonham who highlighted a NSW election where there were 120,000 exhausted votes when the last place (must have been a NSW Upper House election) was won with 80,000.
If your vote exhausts it makes all the unexhausted votes more valuable. So even though we have got rid of group voting tickets, I think this factor with cross-preferencing by their voters between all the small right-wing parties in Queensland will definitely get one of them elected as many Labor, Green and LNP voters exhaust their votes after say only six above the line.
I do not approve of any outward and naked physical aggression against any MP.
However, a long time ago, in Perth, Gough Whitlam razzing where the old Post Office used to be, had half-full cans of beer thrown in his direction, if not at him. The people doing the throwing looked very much like out-of-towners, the good, true and law-abiding citizens from some Country (National) Party area. At the time this was just seen as a bit of good fun from those (mainly) country hicks. No doubt today they would be the tut-tutters.
I once saw a doco on TV that described Edward I (The Hammer Of The Scots) as “a pioneer of a united Britain”. And I thought, ‘yeah, in the same way that Napoleon was a pioneer of a united Europe’.
nath,
Beethoven wrote music, which tbh is frankly unimportant.
Every year JJJ’s hottest 100 comes around to remind me that there are, bizarrely, people over 16 who actually think music is important, rather than being pleasant background noise to the actual important things in life, which is its true function.
Beethoven is nothing more than his time’s Harry Stiles. And about as important in the real scheme of things.
Barney – so you survived the deluge?
Is this the start of the Wet Season in the south of the country? I think I recall you saying there had been very little rain when you were in the Cà Mau Peninsula.
It’s funny how some people are tongue-in-cheek discussing the challenge of having to order right wing racist parties at the bottom of their HoR ballot….which has no bearing on anything
…whilst….
Others apparently are facing an apparently real moral dilemma as to whether they will actually let their senate vote exhaust or vote for Labor after the harder left parties….which could see an extra right winger elected
I’ll be voting Labor in the lower house and the upper house and directing my senate preferences in order of whom I would like to see in the senate. God willing, Labor wins next week and I will not be in a twisted state that some will find themselves when a mighty victory against the reactionary forces cant be enjoyed because of the sanctimonious cul-de-sac they went down thinking it was the future
Burgey yes and I guess the statue of David is a knick-knack and the Mona Lisa is wallpaper. Jeez
jc – thank you for your work. Someone I know is a doctor who treats lots of former refugees and they often talk about the trauma and PTSD many of their patients have from all the events in their home country, nearby refugee camps, the long journeys since and their incarceration at our end.
Barney in Saigon
says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 10:26 am
nath says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 10:22 am
Barney in Saigon
says:
Don’t we love looking at historical events and players through our eyes, today!
Hard to find anyone who you couldn’t make look like a bastard now.
_________________________________
Nah. A mass murdering asshole in the nineteenth century has always been a mass murdering asshole. Beethoven lived at the same time as Napoleon, yet somehow managed not to commit crimes against humanity.
Excluding his success, how was he so different to his contemporaries at the time?
________________________________________________
Apart from the sheer amount of death he caused? Of course many of the rulers of Europe were tyrants who murdered many people. Why don’t you take this line with Hitler or Stalin? Or are they too recent to be absolved from their crimes?
Burgey
says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 10:33 am
nath,
Beethoven wrote music, which tbh is frankly unimportant.
Every year JJJ’s hottest 100 comes around to remind me that there are, bizarrely, people over 16 who actually think music is important, rather than being pleasant background noise to the actual important things in life, which is its true function.
Beethoven is nothing more than his time’s Harry Stiles. And about as important in the real scheme of things.
___________________________________
Well, aren’t you a dirty little philistine.
Thanks rhwombat. That “specificity of phages” seems like a two edged sword. They seem to be powerful and precise, but slow (and expensive?) to create. imacca commented on phage libraries. Perhaps there are techniques to be developed to select phage candidates more quickly. I’ll “watch this space”.
Observer – Burwood is in the Sydney seat of Reid (was Laundy – should be Crosby if ALP wins).
The Asian vote is more pro Labor than anti if the corflutes are anything to go by in the Burwood Strathfield end of the electorate. Most Asian shops/restaurants have Crosby’s face plastered and only one or two of the Lib lady. The further west you go in the electorate, by rights, the less Coalition support so Libs are rightly worried even though it is a 4% margin.
“Senate preferences that get to the Greens are likely to stay there and not be distributed any further, because the Greens will either elect a senator with less than a quota or stay in the hunt right to the end without being eliminated.”
You simply cannot predict with certainty the order of exclusion, which might be quite tight. This is why I think it’s important for left-leaning voters to swallow their pride and preference those parties who are most likely to support left wing causes (as a whole, rather than a specific policy area) over the conservative forces (of which there are many). This is particularly given the fact that whoever is elected will serve for 6 years, across more than a single government.
Roger, agreed.
Not long ago I had been thinking that I wouldn’t include certain Labor senators in my below the line voting but sh!t got real and I have completely changed my opinion on that. Now I’ll also be including the Liberal and National parties and possibly even conservative Christians, albeit far enough down the order that hopefully my vote doesn’t support them too much. I can’t stomach supporting fascism in any way.
Rocket Rocket says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 10:37 am
Yep, it was looking a bit dodgy with the rising water and especially when it started streaming through the ceiling.
It certainly looks like the dry is breaking, I’ve experienced 4 or 5 big downpours in the last week or so.
Latest odds from Ladbrokes
Labor – $1.15 Libs $5.25 (out from $5.00 overnight)
The money is all one way at the moment.
shift,
No they’re lovely. No more significant though than a Henry Moore sculpture or a Jackson Pollock painting just because they’re older.
Mona Lisa ? David ? All paid for by the vicious exploitation of the peasantry and various colonial subjects . Nasty stuff but oh so nice for the upper crusties of the time 😉
Burgey
But, of course, none of them are of any importance.