Welcome to episode eight of Seat du jour, an opportunity for you to read about and (hopefully) discuss the individual contests that will determine the May 18 election. So far the series has taken it to Chisholm, Reid, Bass, Pearce, Lindsay, Gilmore, Dickson and La Trobe. Today’s subject is the Victorian seat of Corangamite, the most marginal seat in the land. The Poll Bludger election guide entry can be found here.
Corangamite encompasses the southern outskirts of Geelong and the Great Ocean Road as far as Apollo Bay; rural areas to the west of the former and the north of the latter; and, following the redistribution, the Bellarine Peninsula. The seat has a newly acquired status as an electoral bellwether, having been held for Labor by Darren Cheeseman (now the state member for South Barwon) from 2007 to 2013, and since for the Liberals by Sarah Henderson. Prior to that though, Labor had only won the seat twice in a history going back to federation: in 1910, when future Prime Minister Jim Scullin held it for a term, later to return in the inner Melbourne seat of Yarra in 1922; and with Scullin’s election victory in 1929. The Country Party won the seat with Labor’s defeat in 1931, but it in turn fell to the United Australia Party in 1934, and was held thereafter by it and its successor, the Liberal Party.
Labor’s competitiveness improved when the expansion of parliament in 1984 caused the seat to lose much of its rural conservative territory in the west. The ongoing growth of Geelong has made this a continuing process, its impact felt through changes to both its demography and its boundaries. The latest redistribution has been a further step down this path, eliminating the 3.1% Liberal margin through a transfer of western rural territory to Wannon, encompassing Colac and the lake from which the electorate gets its name. This inspired the redistribution committee to propose renaming the seat Cox, an idea that was dropped after a hostile response.
Corangamite’s watershed moment came with Kevin Rudd’s victory in 2007, when Darren Cheeseman unseated Stewart McArthur, who had held the seat for the Liberals since 1984 and was once again seeking re-election at the age of 70, to the dismay of some in his party. Cheeseman overwhelmed McArthur’s 5.3% margin with a 6.2% swing, then had his narrow margin pared back in 2010 by a 0.4% swing to Liberal candidate Sarah Henderson, a former state host of The 7.30 Report on the ABC, and the daughter of former state MP Ann Henderson. Henderson succeeded on the second attempt with a 4.2% swing in 2013, then suffered only a mild swing in 2016. Cheeseman made a political comeback at the state election in November, when he gained the partly corresponding seat of South Barwon for Labor. Labor’s current candidate is Surf Coast councillor Libby Coker, who also ran in 2016.
Mixed messages have emerged from the Liberal camp about Henderson’s prospects of holding out at the coming election – though few credit the result of ReachTEL poll for the Geelong Advertiser at the start of the campaign that had her leading 54-46. Michael Koziol of The Age wrote in the second week of the campaign of a consensus in the Liberal camp that the seat was a “near-certain loss”, but other reports have indicated that they at least consider themselves a chance. The leaders have made one visit each – Scott Morrison in the first week to court the grey vote, and Bill Shorten on Tuesday to launch yet more health initiatives.
I live on the coast in Corangamite and can report that Sarah Henderson is very good chance to buck the likely large swing against the government in Melbourne’ eastern suburbs.
She has delivered on infrastructure in Geelong and in the diverse regions of the electorate. NDIS is headquartered in Geelong , thanks to Henderson.
She has a tireless work ethic.
Whilst notionally now an ALP seat, Henderson is liked and respected across the political divide.
Yes, for the Liberals who can’t stand Dutton, Abbott and the overthrow of Malcolm the swing is on. But it could easily go the other way in this seat because of the effort of the local member.
Of course, it’s far from certain. But it has the vibe.
Thank you William for these seat profiles, they will be on my list of seats to watch on the 18th while channel surfing and enjoying a few beers.
I live in the Geelong part of the electorate and I’m feeling baseball bats may not be out for her personally but the tide will run out anyway. South Barwon seemed to stubbornly refuse to swing at the state level but went big at the last election. The demographics are just not helpful for the Liberals here. That’s the big thing here for this seat. Henderson is advertising heavily but sadly I haven’t had the good fortune to see her canvassing around Marshall Station of a morning. Getting lots of Clive and Cory stuff in the mail too.
I already early voted though, sorry Clive.
Corangamite will be a Liberal retain.
re: Al Pal
It’s worth noting that while the NDIS is headquartered in Geelong, quite a lot of the Victorian jobs under it are not in Geelong. Many of them are in Melbourne CBD and there’s quite a big office in Sunshine. So the number of Pivotonians getting the benefit from having a major government agency in their city may not be that big and it’s already baked into the existing margin as it’s not something that occurred in the most recent term, so I don’t see that swinging any further voters. I’d say Henderson’s messaging is spot-on (you hear it enough times on the radio during the footy) and well-calibrated for the electorate, but I think Victoria’s going to swing 3 to 5 per cent to the ALP, and Henderson’s not a finger-on-the-pulse superstar (like say, Warren Entsch) that will allow her to defy that amount of gravity when she really needs a swing to her.
Bree, do you live in Corangamite too?
Hi All – long time reader, but my first post.
We spend a lot of time in the west of the electorate and I think that this will be close. Henderson has gone out of her way to emphasise her credentials as a ‘moderate’ – even joining a protests against drilling in the Great Australian Bight. She’s also relatively popular locally. That said, Victoria is the ALPs strongest State and the recent redistribution has made the seat nominally Labor (albeit by a tiny majority). For what it’s worth, my feeling is this will keep its newly found bellweather status – if Labor wins government they’ll carry Corangamite by a small margin. If the Libs hold nationally then so will Henderson.
Last election I was in town of Bonnackburn and the campaign was about CFA. Local brigade was campaigning against Labor and just ALPs luck the polling booth was next to fire brigade.
Edwardo
Agree she’s not an Entsch type superstar, but she’s an exceptional worker – and not just during bloody election campaigns. Yes, the swing is on in Melbourne In a big way, but with a fair amount of luck she could easily hang on.
I’ve had some dealings with her and her office over the years – faultless and outcome driven.
“Bree says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 9:20 am
Corangamite will be a Liberal retain.
edwardo says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 9:56 am
re: Al Pal
It’s worth noting that while the NDIS is headquartered in Geelong, quite a lot of the Victorian jobs under it are not in Geelong. Many of them are in Melbourne CBD and there’s quite a big office in Sunshine. So the number of Pivotonians getting the benefit from having a major government agency in their city may not be that big and it’s already baked into the existing margin as it’s not something that occurred in the most recent term, so I don’t see that swinging any further voters. I’d say Henderson’s messaging is spot-on (you hear it enough times on the radio during the footy) and well-calibrated for the electorate, but I think Victoria’s going to swing 3 to 5 per cent to the ALP, and Henderson’s not a finger-on-the-pulse superstar (like say, Warren Entsch) that will allow her to defy that amount of gravity when she really needs a swing to her.
Bree, do you live in Corangamite too?”
Does she live in Corangamite?? Does she live on planet Earth?
Also, I have not seen “Wayne” written with these phonemics before.
Back to the prancing pony Bree.
Besides demographic change which has not been kind to the Libs, their big problem in this seat was that Stewart Macarthur hung around too long. If he had gone in 2004, there was probably a good chance that a new MP could have dug themselves in enough to survive 2007.
My Labor voting in laws have lived in the seat and have always spoken highly of Sarah Henderson. She is a formidable campaigner but not good enough to survive when the starting margin is effectively zip and the tide is running out.
AlPal – I agree she’s worked hard. But hard working MPs aren’t immune, as blackburnpseph alludes to. My parents raved about the service they got from Wyatt Roy’s office, and Roy himself. But they didn’t vote for him, and he didn’t hold on against the swing when his time came.
Henderson might staunch the bleeding to the tune of 1-2% but Geelong to a large extent acted like Melbourne at the State election, and I’d be expecting a 4% swing to Labor across Melbourne and Geelong, so I think Henderson is gone. It’ll be like 90% demographic change plus 10% a new sitting member, but Corangamite will probably be a Labor-leaning marginal over the next two decades.
Also you can still see Stewie Mac on the V/Line train from time to time, dressed for work. I don’t know what he’s working as now, but I’d be enjoying my retirement if I were him. Maybe he’s on some boards or something.
If the Libs retain Corangamite, it will be the ALP’s underwhelming candidate that will be to blame. That’s not to say the ALP candidate isn’t a nice person, but when at candidates forums she picks up the ALPs policy talking points and reads them word for word without any other comment it comes across as insincere and robotic. The Liberal incumbent, despite being obnoxious, actually engages with her audience and attempts to bring them in. The average person is going to look at the incumbent and say to themselves “she’s passionate, sincere and cares about my community”
Talking to people on the ground in Corangamite – they are also saying the same things. Even people campaigning for the ALP.
The independent – a surfy type who is focusing his campaign on climate change – could surprise here; especially against an also underwhelming Greens campaign. He also polled well in South Barwon for the state election. Though he’s handing out how to votes with a split ticket. I’m told his decision behind not explicitly recommending preferences to the ALP is because a family member of his doesn’t personally like the ALP candidate.