BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor

Labor retains its modest yet decisive lead as three new polls record little change on two-party preferred, and two very different sets of leadership ratings largely cancel each other out.

Three new polls over the last week, from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, have made next to no difference on BludgerTrack’s reading of the two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection. The only change to report is movement from the major parties to the minor parties on the primary vote, with One Nation in particular bouncing back a little after a recent slump. I am not calculating a trend for the United Australia Party at this point – that will only change if I can find the time for it.

With little change in the state breakdowns, the story there continues to be consistent with both sides’ assessment of the situation everywhere except Queensland, where Labor is being credited with what seems an inordinately big swing. It should be noted that BludgerTrack is currently a lot richer in national than state-level data, which should hopefully change reasonably soon with the publication of breakdowns from Newspoll. As ever, it will be interesting to see what these numbers have to say about Queensland.

Newspoll and Ipsos both provided leadership ratings for the week, which caused both leaders to drop slightly on net approval, and resulted in no change whatsoever on preferred prime minister. However, this involved a cancelling out effect of two sets of numbers that were dramatically different from each other, after fairly dramatic bias adjustment measures were applied to Ipsos. So if you look carefully at the leadership ratings trend charts on the BludgerTrack display, the Ipsos results for preferred prime minister and Scott Morrison’s net approval show up as fairly dramatic outliers.

The normal form of Ipsos is to produce more flattering leadership approval numbers than other pollsters, particularly in relation to the Prime Minister. Scott Morrison continued to record a net favourable rating of +3% in the latest poll, but this was seven down on last time, and five worse than his previous low point. There was none of this from Newspoll though, which recorded next to no change. Similarly, it was a case of up from Ipsos and down from Newspoll for Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, with the latter carrying slightly the greater weight.

The full display is available through the link below – and, as ever, don’t miss Seat du jour, today detailing with Corangamite.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

871 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor”

  1. Pedant

    I just thought that claiming former Prime Ministers were members of your new party could be referred to the AEC because it is blatantly historically false. If that is allowable, maybe others should get on board.

    Who wants to claim Edmund Barton I wonder?

  2. Had one of those F. Calabrese authorised robocalls earlier this evening. Surely it’s not “Fighting” Frank Calabrese, formerly of this parish, gone to the Dark Side ;).

    Interesting that Hasluck (and WA in general) is getting a visit from Howard. Presumably internal polling has shown that the minesweeper pork has proved unpalatable. It certainly seems to have sunk without trace as far as further mentions in the media are concerned.

  3. HPB

    Maybe they have decided against having Howard at the launch on Sunday. Can’t imagine he is really much of a positive any more for swinging voters, and no-one aged 32 or less ever voted for him as PM.

    During his ‘reign’ I comforted myself that for our children he would be but a distant memory from their childhoods.

  4. Rocket Rocket @ 12.24 am

    There is nothing in the Electoral Act which prohibits statements which are historically false, unless they mislead a voter in relation to the casting of a vote, which is narrowly defined. See https://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Publications/Backgrounders/authorisation.htm#misleading.

    The relevant High Court case (from 1981) is Evans v Crichton-Browne, see http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/HCA/1981/14.html.

    The Hawke government inserted “truth in advertising” requirements in the Electoral Act in 1983, but repealed them before the 1984 election, following an inquiry by the Joint Select Committee on Electoral Reform. If you are interested in the reasons for repeal, the report is here: https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House_of_Representatives_Committees?url=reports/1984/1984_pp198.pdf

  5. “S for Sam, HughB — not F.”

    Is it a relative I wonder? I remember Frank….he used to post occasionally on The Worst of Perth as well, IIRC.

  6. The libs are only temporarily broke, their benefactors have just seen the writing on the wall for this election and don’t want to throw money at a sinking ship.

    IMHO

  7. At this stage I’m half considering ripping up my lower house ballot paper in the Melbourne electorate. Or maybe I’ll chuck a protest vote to some weird independent.

    I almost volunteered for Labor this year. Glad I didn’t waste my time.

  8. Pedant

    Thanks for those links. I am going to bed but will read them in the morning.

    I was just thinking that tomorrow will be absolutely dominated by Labor’s costings. The Coalition and NewsCorp will spend the entire day shouting .

    But it will be another day about Labor and Labor policies, because the Coalition cupboard is bare and Morrison and Frydenberg are ’empty nesters’ with all their colleagues having quit or in hiding.

  9. Labor promising “biggest surplus in history” according to SMH front page. Looks like they’re playing safe/smart and building up a good buffer in case there is an economic downturn. Will go a long way towards helping people realise they are actually the better economic managers.

  10. Itep,

    Yep, especially if one of our billionaires has a lazy million to spend on convincing people that Labor are home and hosed, and there is no especial need to hand out for party /go out of your way to vote / donate money to party.

    Hope this is not the case, but we still have 9 days to go, and the polls have narrowed.

  11. Also, for those of you who think funding science in Australia, here is a report card from Science and Technology Australia (STA):https://scienceandtechnologyaustralia.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Election-2019-Science-and-Technology-Priorities-web-FINAL.pdf?utm_source=2019+Fedeal+Election+contacts&utm_campaign=7dac4c5bf6-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_04_03_11_12_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_35f9ff3cb1-7dac4c5bf6-588075493

    And for those of you who read this and decide the Greens are better, please make sure to preference the ALP above the Coalition, because the ALP are light years better than the Coalition on funding science.

  12. Came across this tweet from Paul Keating:

    “A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in. Greek Proverb.

    #auspol #ausvotes19 #ausvotes

    Proverb didn’t mention how much the trees cost, just the long term benefit of the action.”

    Or we could give subsidies to old men to buy axes to cut down trees for firewood to keep themselves warm and comfortable.

  13. C@tmomma @ #814 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 10:49 pm

    Steve777 @ #774 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 10:16 pm

    “I’ve been wondering why Malcolm Turnbull HASN’T let a few skeletons out of the closet about the Liberal Party before the election?”

    Maybe:
    1. It would reflect badly on him. He was a senior Minister for Abbott then titular leader.
    2. None of the business establishment would talk to him again.

    More 2 than 1. 🙂

    Nah, if MT had a dollar to spend the business establishment would crawl over broken glass to get their mitts on it.

    Business don’t care what morals or devious carry-ons you have done as long as they can get your money they love you and MT has a bucket of money that sleasy business would love to bury their snouts in.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *