Three new polls over the last week, from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, have made next to no difference on BludgerTrack’s reading of the two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection. The only change to report is movement from the major parties to the minor parties on the primary vote, with One Nation in particular bouncing back a little after a recent slump. I am not calculating a trend for the United Australia Party at this point – that will only change if I can find the time for it.
With little change in the state breakdowns, the story there continues to be consistent with both sides’ assessment of the situation everywhere except Queensland, where Labor is being credited with what seems an inordinately big swing. It should be noted that BludgerTrack is currently a lot richer in national than state-level data, which should hopefully change reasonably soon with the publication of breakdowns from Newspoll. As ever, it will be interesting to see what these numbers have to say about Queensland.
Newspoll and Ipsos both provided leadership ratings for the week, which caused both leaders to drop slightly on net approval, and resulted in no change whatsoever on preferred prime minister. However, this involved a cancelling out effect of two sets of numbers that were dramatically different from each other, after fairly dramatic bias adjustment measures were applied to Ipsos. So if you look carefully at the leadership ratings trend charts on the BludgerTrack display, the Ipsos results for preferred prime minister and Scott Morrison’s net approval show up as fairly dramatic outliers.
The normal form of Ipsos is to produce more flattering leadership approval numbers than other pollsters, particularly in relation to the Prime Minister. Scott Morrison continued to record a net favourable rating of +3% in the latest poll, but this was seven down on last time, and five worse than his previous low point. There was none of this from Newspoll though, which recorded next to no change. Similarly, it was a case of up from Ipsos and down from Newspoll for Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, with the latter carrying slightly the greater weight.
The full display is available through the link below – and, as ever, don’t miss Seat du jour, today detailing with Corangamite.
Anyone seen the front page of today’s Daily Telegraph yet? 😀
Humiliating backdown, or double down? Or a cute fluffy dog story? 😉
Thanks for the update William.
I am now getting more positive about the result on May 18th.
I have just figured out how to stream ABC24 in Germany. The count starts at a very reasonable 10am here.
Will you be part of the election coverage? If so let us know which channel / station etc. so I can watch /listen.
C@T, no I have not. It should be out by now?
WOW Just saw the full Probyn-Keating interview. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-06/paul-keating-interviewed-at-alp-launch/11081710
If only Labor could put it on prime time television.
Keating concisely packaged Labor’s platform and demolished the Coalition’s response. He has this great ability to take complex subjects and make them accessible to people who don’t follow the minuteae of politics. His spray at the security establishment was a breath of fresh air that shatters the Canberra Bubble.
You can see why, apart from that blast, the nervous nellies in the Canberra Press Gallery have largely ignored the interview. How dare a former Prime Minister criticize the establishment. What does he know?
We were lucky to have him, but Keating’s great mind would be wasted in the superficial political discourse of today.. But he certainly is a great mentor to Bill Shorten.
Definitely out by now. After yesterday’s effort I’m just waiting to see what they do. My money’s on double down.
beguiledagain,
I wouldn’t be surprised if some of Bill’s zingers came courtesy of a text each morning from PJK. 🙂
beguiledagain says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 3:11 am
Where do these women get that resilience?
My mother, with two children, divorced a no-hoper husband and married my father, a widower with two children of his own, the year of the great stock market crash. She had left school at 15 to help support her working class family.
Then through the years of the Depression and World War II brought another 10 children into the world (8 still living). In those years of the 1930’s she did this in a small house, without a fridge (just an ice-box), no washing machine, no dishwasher, limited hot water, no central heating, no car and no telephone. Fortunately in those days, bread, milk, ice and coal were home delivered. For four of those years her husband, a World War I veteran, enlisted again and was away with the AIF in the Middle East.
She lived to the ripe old age of 92, still with her very sharp mental faculties, a widespread interest in all things political, artistic and sporting, and a stalwart Labor supporter. She could tell you, almost to the birthday the ages of her 28 grandchildren.
On Mother’s Day I always remember one of her great sayings: “I didn’t come down in the last shower!” (AKA I wasn’t born yesterday!) I’m hoping that the Australian voter has been taking her attitude to the lies and misleading claims of the Coalition during this election campaign.
Want to know what the local Liberal MP for Robertson is doing to try and hang on?
Besides spending $3500 a day! On a truck with a billboard on the side disparaging Bill Shorten that drives up and down the streets where we live and outside the Pre Poll, she also has invested more $ (probably paid for by the taxpayers until next Sunday’s Liberal campaign launch), in another van which parks on the road opposite the Pre Poll place and which is also a truck whose side panel expands to the size of a full-size billboard with flashing lights!
C@tmomma @ #1 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 4:23 am
As predicted by others it’s pretty much all royal bub:
Thanks, DanG. So they used the Royal Sussex Bub as a Get Out of Jail Card?
Beneath the royal baby photo, the Daily Telegraph has a pointer to a story inside suggesting Labor is going to win the election — news that will come as a very great shock to anyone who gets their news from Daily Telegraph front pages, and surely the most positive thing about Labor that has run there in many a long year. Mumgate gets a story on page 10, related in a disarmingly neutral tone, quite at odds with the normal tenor of their political reporting. It’s left to Tim Blair to carry on the fight, which shows you how confident they must be feeling right now.
As for the innards, it seems to be pretty much defending the indefensible such as this by Tim Bleeeeh:
Yeah. Nah.
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/bill-shorten-invokes-his-mothers-life-story-in-connection-with-his-own-prime-ministerial-ambitions/news-story/23939c778592600e4c4aaa42eecd1a32 (behind paywall)
I watched the debate last night. I thought the format was poor. I thought that Shorten caught Morrison lie on three occasions, one was on the economy where Morrison was telling us what a great job they have done with the economy, then Shorten reminded everyone that we have a slowing economy, house prices have dropped people are struggling with stagnant wages and rising costs. The second was on Global Warming where Shorten told us that the cost of doing nothing was much worse than doing something, that Morrison’s claim that they have reduced the amount of carbon was false and presented figures and also likened the cost to the cost of removing asbestos and cleaning the chemicals, stopping chemicals from entering the rivers, consequently we have cleaner rivers and buildings. Thirdly re defence spending, Shorten said that defence spending was the same for both parties and that if it were not for the ALP the ships and submarines would have been built in Japan and France. Also reminded us about the shipping yards that have closed.
Shorten did start slowly but warmed up and finished way in front just like Winx.
@cat
Oh don’t worry the Daily Terror has am exclusive that Sydney will be flooded with elderly refugees if the ALP win government.
There’s also something about ALP’ radical gender policy, sex changes for everyone etc..
David Speers summation….
Both leaders played it safe and avoided any major stuff-ups last night. Neither landed a knock-out blow or did anything that will change the course of the campaign. Both sides played to their strengths and both will claim a win. In my view Bill Shorten offered warmth, compassion and vision, where Scott Morrison offered competence, detail and responsibility. On balance Shorten’s is likely to be the more appealing offering for genuinely undecided voters. In the end, Morrison needed a big victory and didn’t get it. For that reason, Labor comes out of last night maintaining its narrow lead in this campaign.
Shorten had already won the day before the debate began, after his emotional response to the Daily Telegraph story on his mother. The Opposition Leader gave an insight into what drives him and showed the authenticity he’s so often accused of lacking. He also reached out to the many women who face discrimination when re-entering the workforce or starting a new career later in life. Liberals are worried this was a genuine moment of campaign cut-through that worked powerfully in Shorten’s favour.
The White House claims executive privilege over Mueller’s report — here’s what happens next
The White House has claimed executive privilege over the Mueller report, which is currently available for download or purchase in redacted form online — so what happens next?
The Department of Justice asked the White House to invoke executive privilege over the entire report and the underlying evidence in response to the House Judiciary Committee voting to hold Attorney General William Barr in contempt for refusing to make all of special counsel Robert Mueller’s findings available to legislators.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/05/the-white-house-claims-executive-privilege-over-muellers-report-heres-what-happens-next/
The independent debate commission , should make sure the media understands the difference between
questions and answers ,and a debate
the 3 formats what we have seen were not debates they were just question and answers sessions
Proper debate would be give the leaders 4 or 5 important topics and let them debate each topic for 20-30 mins each .
Donald Trump Jr. hit with subpoena from GOP-led Senate Intel Committee related to Russia investigation
On Wednesday, a report from Axios revealed that a GOP-led Senate Intel Committee subpoenaed Donald Trump Jr. in connection with his relationship with Russia.
The subpoena is calling on Trump Jr. to “answer questions about his previous testimony before Senate investigators in relation to the Russia investigation, a source told Axios.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/05/daddy-wont-be-happy-twitter-rips-donald-trump-jr-after-subpoenaed-by-a-gop-led-senate-intel-committee/
Prelude To Impeachment: House Judiciary Votes Barr In Contempt Of Congress
The House Judiciary Committee voted to hold Attorney General William Barr in contempt of Congress. It now goes to the House floor for a full vote.
The final vote was 24-16.
The resolution will move to the House floor where it will pass, and then the matter will go to court. In practical terms, holding Barr in contempt is another step toward establishing a record that will be used in court to get the full Mueller report and the underlying evidence.
https://www.politicususa.com/2019/05/08/prelude-to-impeachment-house-judiciary-votes-barr-in-contempt-of-congress.html
Michael McCormack is literally on the wombat trail, with said wombat.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-09/federal-election-sees-nationals-revive-wombat-trail/11018894
TAB 1.15/5.00
BetFair 1.18/6.4
Murdoch tabloids hitting rock bottom with this…
Exclusive: Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten were both feeling the toll of the federal election campaign during the crucial final leaders’ debate, with tiredness dogging their persuasive capabilities.
Body language expert Dr Louise Mahler told News Corp Mr Morrison and Mr Shorten both looked exhausted as they went head-to-head for the last time before polling day.
“They’re tired, less energised, less aggressive and less differentiated,” she said.
She said this led to a “boring” final debate, and suggested neither leader appeared fit to represent Australia on the world stage.
Ms Mahler added the skills of influence of both leaders were “dead”.
“All they have is anger and aggression, and when you strip it out, they have nothing left,” she said.
“They should have worked on their posture. Bill Shorten often appeared to be at an angle standing on one leg, or leaning on the lectern.”
She added both leaders should have worked on their eye contact and hand gestures, and introduced techniques like creative metaphors.
Ms Mahler said there was a point where Mr Shorten “lost the plot” when discussing the cost of cancer drugs.
“His hands give it away. His hands start looking awkward, and his fingers wriggle, and he puts them together,” she said.
She said both had lessons to learn in composure.
“Scott Morrison for example seals his mouth, his eyes go in all directors. Bill wriggles and smirks. Neither have composure,” she said.
Neither Mr Morrison or Mr Shorten showed the qualities of a world leader based on the three debates, according to Ms Mahler.
“They don’t listen, they hide their hands, and they are aggressive in their voicing. None of these are suitable leadership skills,” she said.
“I can’t see any swinging voter being won over after tonight’s debate.”
COYS!!!! Unbelievable match and an omen for the election?
adrian @ #24 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 5:06 am
Forgive my ignorance, but who, or what are COYS?
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 6:31 am
Want to know what the local Liberal MP for Robertson is doing to try and hang on?
Besides spending $3500 a day! On a truck with a billboard on the side disparaging Bill Shorten that drives up and down the streets where we live and outside the Pre Poll, she also has invested more $ (probably paid for by the taxpayers until next Sunday’s Liberal campaign launch), in another van which parks on the road opposite the Pre Poll place and which is also a truck whose side panel expands to the size of a full-size billboard with flashing lights!
———————–
I know it’s a great tradition, sausage sizzle and all.
But when are we going to do away with all of the unseemly hoopla at the polling place which has culminated in what Cat has described. Surely having a truck as a flashing lights billboard that close to the booth is pushing the envelope.
In some other counries it is illegal to have any presence at the polling station and advertising is prohibited a day or so in advance.
I recognize the need for guidance in how to fill in the ballot, but surely there is a better way. I also appreciate the work of party workers like Cat to get a final crack at the voter.
I think after working so arduously during the campaign she and the other volunteers deserve a rest on polling day.
After a busy afternoon on PB here in the northern hemisphere I think it’s also time for me to take a break and turn over PB to other bludgers. I should explain that when you are in the eastern North American time zone you wake up in the morning and have to go through eight hours of PB that came in while you are sleeping.
People on here were pointing out how tired the leaders looked during the debate too, but I don’t really think it’s worth reporting on.
Tottenham Hotspur DG. They just made the Champions League final in a manner similar to, but even more dramatic than Liverpool v Barcelona.
“A new poll of 1,426 voters commissioned by the progressive think tank, the Australia Institute, finds 58% want Labor’s emissions target passed by the crossbench, including 48% of Coalition voters, 74% of Greens voters and 69% of ALP voters in the sample.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/09/voters-think-crossbench-should-pass-labor-policies-if-shorten-wins-election-poll-finds
Coal free week in the UK this week. A great initiative that we should aim for too.
phoenixRed:
This is also making news today.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/05/07/us/politics/donald-trump-taxes.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
adrian @ #28 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 5:14 am
Thanks. Since one of my best mates is a died in the wool Spurs fan, I should’ve perhaps known that.
So, an all England CL Final then.
Tanya P giving News Ltd a kick in the arse on AM just now.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/09/pms-office-silent-after-apparent-reference-to-environment-bill-that-doesnt-exist?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
God I hope City win the EPL and Spurs the ECL final. Basically my entire generation are Liverpool fans, growing up as we did in the 80s when pumping long balls over the top for Ian Rush was (and is) considered great football.
How I want it all to end in tears for them. For more than 20 years we’ve heard “It’s Liverpool’s year” as they’ve been consistently mediocre at best and diabolical at worst.
I would love nothing more than have them rack up over 90 points only to miss out on the title. Those tears would taste so sweet.
I’ve complained about the difficult preferencing choices I’ll have to make in my electorate, but I really do feel sorry for centrist/progressive voters in Fisher this election.
Burgey @ #35 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 5:24 am
I find it interesting that just 3 English cities dominate the EPL, Liverpool, Manchester and London.
first I would like to thank all the P.Bers for the updates during last nights debate, it was welcome to this shift worker who was unable to watch. And also thanks to Bluey for his deep insights on the campaign so far.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9eWERM6QSys
Confessions @ #36 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 5:29 am
How in hell would a progressive voter decide on who to put last on a ballot like that?
The big shock for me after last night’s debate was watching the Sky News commentary. Sky After Dawn crew giving it real to the Sky After Dark mob left some very unhappy Liberal reactionaries on the Credlin show.
Dan G:
Exactly. I’d be like
1 Labor
2 Greens
3 ummmm…
I have been asking (via social media) the local independent, Helen Haines, to say how she’ll vote on penalty rates basically every day of the campaign.
Crickets.
I get told to come along to candidates forums if I want an answer!
William Bowe@6:42am
Don’t you live in West? Or are you currently living in East? If you in West are you alight sleeper like Rudd? It is amazing the effort you put into PB. Thanks for that.
Despite the headline, Murphy’s piece is the most clearly enunciated acknowledgement of the momentum in the Bill Train yet. I don’t think she’s alone.
Shit is insulted by any comparison to Tim Blair.
Dan,
It’s curious Birmingham hasn’t had a bigger say over the years in the EPL/ First Division, being England’s second largest city.
Then again, it’s a complete shit hole, so it’s no wonder it can’t attract top players – who’d want to live there? It’s basically England’s Brisbane. Just a woeful joint.
The Daily Telegraph was hoist on its own black swan petard.
Turning point of the campaign
Labor greeen,
Cross out for the rest
Fran boxing frydneberg’s ears here on RN right now
Doesn’t really matter what Scott was referring to under his usual blizzard of bullsh*t
Scott Morrison’s office has declined to say what legislation he was referring to when he said he had “been taking action” on a landmark UN report about the extinction of a million different species.