Three new polls over the last week, from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, have made next to no difference on BludgerTrack’s reading of the two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection. The only change to report is movement from the major parties to the minor parties on the primary vote, with One Nation in particular bouncing back a little after a recent slump. I am not calculating a trend for the United Australia Party at this point – that will only change if I can find the time for it.
With little change in the state breakdowns, the story there continues to be consistent with both sides’ assessment of the situation everywhere except Queensland, where Labor is being credited with what seems an inordinately big swing. It should be noted that BludgerTrack is currently a lot richer in national than state-level data, which should hopefully change reasonably soon with the publication of breakdowns from Newspoll. As ever, it will be interesting to see what these numbers have to say about Queensland.
Newspoll and Ipsos both provided leadership ratings for the week, which caused both leaders to drop slightly on net approval, and resulted in no change whatsoever on preferred prime minister. However, this involved a cancelling out effect of two sets of numbers that were dramatically different from each other, after fairly dramatic bias adjustment measures were applied to Ipsos. So if you look carefully at the leadership ratings trend charts on the BludgerTrack display, the Ipsos results for preferred prime minister and Scott Morrison’s net approval show up as fairly dramatic outliers.
The normal form of Ipsos is to produce more flattering leadership approval numbers than other pollsters, particularly in relation to the Prime Minister. Scott Morrison continued to record a net favourable rating of +3% in the latest poll, but this was seven down on last time, and five worse than his previous low point. There was none of this from Newspoll though, which recorded next to no change. Similarly, it was a case of up from Ipsos and down from Newspoll for Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, with the latter carrying slightly the greater weight.
The full display is available through the link below – and, as ever, don’t miss Seat du jour, today detailing with Corangamite.
Burgey @ #46 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 5:39 am
Ah, but that region also produced Black Sabbath, Led Zeppelin, Electric Light Orchestra, sundry members of Deep Purple, and many other rock luminaries.
Perhaps they should abandon football and focus on music. 😆
DG https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/05/09/bludgertrack-51-8-48-2-labor-2/#comment-3161216 Having already voted the NSW Senate ticket is worse. Its also much worse then the recent NSW state LC ticket, even with less than 1/3 the candidates.
“How in hell would a progressive voter decide on who to put last on a ballot like that?”
***
Uhhg that’s just horrible! That’s the kind of seat where you wish you could preference multiple parties dead last or just number Greens 1 and Labor 2 and leave the rest blank.
William, is the huge 5.3% primary jump in Bludgertrack for the Greens in SA correct? I hope it is but it seems like a very large increase in the space of just a week.
Sceptic, maybe scomo misheard the question the coalition have plenty of policies to meet or exceed the U.N’s extinction quota.
Oh damn that Fisher ballot paper is just grim. And the Love or Leave party logo…
Completely off topic, but while we are waiting for Dawn Patrol, this is subtly important. Phage treatment of multiresistant organisms is likely to become as important as immunotherapy of cancer – ie very.
I love the Royals. How good are they to let the bloke they named the Bub after get introduced to Archie so quickly after the birth. Lets just say they are keeping it all in the family. (I need a PBer to show me the code again for posting up a pic)
phages are amazing little critters
https://www.reddit.com/r/natureismetal/comments/7vst0s/t4_bacteriophage_virus_as_seen_through_an/
https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-politics/wa-nationals-face-legal-battle-after-state-director-simon-glossop-sacked-after-stroke-ng-b881192731z
rhwombat
Re phages. So them thar Russkiys were on to something when they got into them way back in the day. When I first read about them they sure did sound exciting as far as possibilities go.
Dan Gulberry says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 7:31 am
How does it matter?
As soon as you put a “1” in Labor’s box your vote isn’t going anywhere else.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Sorry for today’s tardiness – I slept in until just after six.
David Crowe reports that Labor is expecting an escalating assault from Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp and fears further attacks in the final days of the campaign.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/a-political-hit-job-labor-braces-for-war-with-murdoch-media-20190508-p51lf6.html
You can just about see the tears all over the home page of The Australian!
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/
More from Crowe as he says Bill Shorten may have won the third debate, but Scott Morrison gave one of his best performances of the election campaign.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/so-that-s-a-no-a-key-moment-of-friction-in-the-final-face-off-between-morrison-and-shorten-20190508-p51lgi.html
What the betting markets tell us about the seats set to fall on election night.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/what-the-betting-markets-tell-us-about-the-seats-set-to-fall-on-election-night-20190508-p51l6h.html
Jess Irvine writes that around the world, advanced economies have stagnated, unable to generate the sort of rapid growth of earlier eras. In a way, slower growth is a badge of success, a sign of having moved up the economic ladder.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-has-joined-the-go-slow-club-and-that-s-ok-20190508-p51lbu.html
Stephen Bartholomeusz says that the ACCC appears fixated on a potential telecommunications industry landscape that doesn’t and probably won’t exist; a fantasy of its imagined perfect industry structure.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/absurd-accc-s-destructive-telco-fantasy-will-only-make-things-worse-20190508-p51leo.html
Katharine Murphy writes that Morrison pledged loyalty to his MIA environment minister amid a listless debate.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/08/price-is-right-morrison-pledges-loyalty-to-mia-environment-minister-amid-listless-debate
The Conversation’s experts look at the debate.
https://theconversation.com/shorten-and-morrison-make-their-final-cases-in-third-leaders-debate-our-experts-respond-116668
Michelle Grattan says the third debate contained some messages about and from the leaders.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-third-debate-contained-some-messages-about-and-from-the-leaders-116769
David Crowe tells us why Shorten’s response to the DT hatchet job on his mother was the most compelling moment of this election campaign.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/why-this-was-the-most-compelling-moment-of-this-election-campaign-20190508-p51l9i.html
Bill Shorten’s teary press conference hitting back at a critical story in the Daily Telegraph about his account of his late-mother’s career has won praise from supporters, but has also been described by former News Corp executives and critics of the media giant as smart politics.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/former-murdoch-execs-say-bill-shorten-s-attack-on-new-corp-was-smart-politics-20190508-p51l6c.html
And the SMH editorial congratulates the Daily Telegraph on a great own goal.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/congratulations-to-the-daily-telegraph-on-a-great-own-goal-20190508-p51l9q.html
Sam Maiden explains how ‘a new low’ has strengthened Bill Shorten’s resolve.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/05/09/bill-shorten-profile/
Ann Davies asks if News Corp’s attack on Shorten’s memory of his dead mother the cost of shunning Murdoch.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/may/08/is-news-corps-attack-on-shortens-memory-of-his-dead-mother-the-cost-of-shunning-murdoch
Professor Elizabeth Savage writes that Labor’s proposal to end cash refunds of unused dividend imputation credits is highly targeted. It certainly doesn’t apply to age pensioners, even part pensioners, courtesy of Labor’s Pensioner Guarantee. Self managed super funds set up by pensioners before the announcement are also exempt
https://theconversation.com/its-hard-to-find-out-who-labors-dividend-imputation-policy-will-hit-but-it-is-possible-and-it-isnt-the-poor-116370
The cost to the budget of income splitting through discretionary trusts has blown out, Chris Bowen says. He has plethora of exhibits to prove his point.
https://www.outline.com/q8kKms
Greg Jericho writes that the bar must be low if the economy’s fundamentals are as ‘sound’ as Josh Frydenberg claims.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/may/09/the-bar-must-be-low-if-the-economys-fundamentals-are-as-sound-as-josh-frydenberg-claims
The Wilderness Society says that this has to be the last election where the environment is used as a political football. It’s been building for a long time but the release of the United Nation’s extinction report must now be the line in the sand.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/a-million-species-on-the-brink-yes-voters-care-20190508-p51ldv.html
Nick Miller writes that Britain’s electricity grid has gone an entire week without burning coal for the first time since the Industrial Revolution. And the country’s grid operator says this will be “the new normal” – and mean lower power prices for consumers.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/britain-goes-a-week-without-coal-power-saying-this-is-the-new-normal-20190509-p51lgy.html
John Hewson says that when it comes to climate change our leaders have three tiers of responsibility, national, international and intergenerational. Leadership needs to be dignified and respectful to build national solidarity to respond to the urgency of the challenge.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/come-senators-mps-there-s-a-climate-emergency-raging-20190508-p51l3m.html
The two peak financial regulators have sent a clear message to boards that they are taking climate change risk seriously, calling the issue “all pervading”, “legally foreseeable”.
https://www.outline.com/Z6LgER
Labor’s climate target will definitely cost more than the Coalition’s, but we don’t know enough about either policy to accurately assess it, writes Tony Wood.
https://www.outline.com/cNBtS4
Scott Morrison’s office has declined to say what legislation he was referring to when he said he had “been taking action” on a landmark UN report about the extinction of a million different species.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/09/pms-office-silent-after-apparent-reference-to-environment-bill-that-doesnt-exist
The water minister, David Littleproud, says he would be open to working with the basin states to discuss breaking up the Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) between an agency and a regulator, as recommended by the Productivity Commission.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/08/coalition-says-it-will-consider-breaking-up-murray-darling-basin-authority
Emma Koehn reports that Australian small businesses say the cashflow crunch is now encroaching on their ability to pay staff, with one third of companies struggling to make ends meet as they wait on at least $20,000 in outstanding invoices to be paid to them. Late payment has been a shocking development over recent years.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/the-final-straw-cash-crunch-leads-small-businesses-to-pay-staff-late-20190508-p51l3p.html
Malcolm Turnbull has suggested Western nations should develop independent 5G networks, forgetting the failure of our NBN as an example of Government intervention, writes Paul Budde.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/nbn-a-reminder-of-why-turnbulls-5g-plan-is-flawed,12650
Michael Koziol writes that potential election kingmaker Clive Palmer is undecided on the merits of immunisation after one of his candidates said parents should question vaccine advice given by doctors.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6114185/uap-undecided-on-vaccine-merits/?cs=14350
The US House Judiciary committee voted 24-16 to hold Barr in contempt after the Justice Department rejected House Democrats’ demands for the full Mueller report and the underlying evidence. Ahead of the vote, US President Donald Trump asserted executive privilege over those materials and reserved the right to block them. Where is all this going to end?
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/attorney-general-william-barr-held-in-contempt-of-congress-20190509-p51lhl.html
Impeachment isn’t just a tool to remove a president – it’s also a way to mark a presidency with historic disapproval, thereby deterring similar conduct, writes Brian Klaas.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/its-time-to-start-impeachment-hearings-20190508-p51l6y.html
In a cracker of a contribution Peter FitzSimons dissects the whole Israel Falau issue.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/six-of-the-worst-fallacies-surrounding-the-israel-folau-case-20190508-p51let.html
And for “Arseholes of the Week” nomination we have . . .
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/18-arrested-as-alleged-family-day-care-fraud-syndicated-dismantled-20190508-p51ldp.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe ventures into the DT editorial office.
David Pope serves it up to Murdoch.
Cathy Wilcox and a rampaging PM.
From Matt Golding.
Two more beauties from Mark David.
John Shakespeare and Morrison’s unravelling.
Matt Davidson passes the economic baton.
Cope this one from Glen Le Lievre!
Peter Broelman gives us a royal egging.
Zanetti’s getting desperate.
Jon Kudelka and the rise of the independents.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/f441e3f57fde9195e32da4fdfe1e6bd5?width=1024
From the US
Barney in Saigon @ #62 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 6:10 am
Fair point.
You heard it here. Just vote 1 Labor and all your problems will go away 😉
@Shortensuite:
Look at what the Liberals are posting on social media today.
This dope is a NSW Liberal Cabinet Minister #auspol #mymum
Just watching ABC Morning breakfast analysis of the Leaders Debate
The journalists managed to make the fact that only Labor policy was discussed sound like Labor’s policies are dodgy rather than Liberals haven’t announced any policies because they know the IPA list of demands is utterly unpalatable to the electorate
These people sound nice.
https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/elderly-woman-verbally-abused-by-gang-of-great-australian-party-supporters-outside-polling-booth-ng-b881193305z
Thanks BK. Love the Rowe cartoon – check out Abbott peering up from behind one of the cubicles!
@nowthisnews
‘The president, aided and abetted by the attorney general, tears at the very fabric of our Constitution.’ — @RepRaskin listed all of Trump’s misdeeds and it is jaw-dropping
Trying again… 2nd attempt
I love the Royals. How good are they to let the bloke they named the Bub after get introduced to Archie so quickly after the birth. Lets just say they are keeping it all in the family.
” rel=”nofollow”>
Morning all
zoidlord
David Elliott actually posted that before Shorten did his response to the article in the DT. I reckon he may have regretted posting those comments after all.
Muskiemp@6:45am
I thought that yesterday’ debate format was poor. It did not suit Shorten way of debating. I thought he was nervous than previous 2 debates. I thought at best it was draw.
@IndigenousX
Why has my personal Twitter @pauldutton1968 and that of @SummerMayFinlay accounts been suspended?
Has any other Aboriginal accounts been shutdown? And why? I’ve no email explaining this.
@TwitterSupport
@Victoria
Thanks for that,
But it is my belief that anyone who has joined the liberal party are the same brush, because you are more likely to be influenced by bad ones in the party.
I know we have federal campaign happening and all that, but events in the USA are getting mighty interesting
Victoria:
Looking more and more like a slow moving coup every day.
BK
Thanks for today’s reports. And sleeping in until after 6 am Is not actually sleeping in. Lol!
Morning all. Thanks for the updates William. There seems a curious disjuncture between “close but consistent” polls and one sided and consistent betting markets. The relative famine in polls continues. For example, a large Vic or NSW poll would give a pretty clear indication by now.
I missed last nights debate and it sounds like that was a good thing. For all his bluster and shameless lies ScumMo has not really landed a glove on Shorten since his slip up on tax in the first week. Pork barreling in marginals aside, I find the Liberal campaign extraordinary for its lack of anything new. A tax cut? Really! We never would have expected that.
If the Liberals really do have anything new to offer, they are leaving their campaign launch very late to announce it. A lot of people will have already voted by Sunday. How often does a government launch its campaign after the LOTO? It has been a dreary affair, symbolic of the government itself.
Hey nath !!! One for you 😆
.
.
Short shrift for Napoleon complex as it turns out he was quite nice.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/05/04/short-shrift-napoleon-complex-turns-quite-nice/
Fess
When you look at how things are playing out in the USA. It looks like a road map to an outcome.
The main game is to ensure that Trump and his fellow travellers do not compromise the integrity and security of the USA.
This is all happening behind closed doors away from the public gaze.
Trump has been stifled from very early on in his presidency so in that respect he has not been able to reek havoc.
But this next phase is going to cause quite a bit of unrest and there could be a call to arms by Trump to his cultish followers.
Interesting times.
@Confessions Moreton looks the same sans love us and leave us. I suspect most Queensland divisions have similar ballot papers. Just goes to show we’ve not yet scraped the bottom of the barrel and there’s plenty more where Pauline came from. I reckon you’d all better be very kind you us least we unleash our hordes of nutjobs upon ye.
BK you can be as late as you want – best to always get the ZZZZ’s.
Watched the Keating video for the first time, he has always been my political hero and he could still be a politician if wanted to be – the man is knowledgeable, eloquent and calls a spade a spade.
Sorry, I know this is what-aboutery but seriously: ScoMo gets an answer so badly wrong that he just makes up some legislation that doesn’t exist – either confused or disingenuous – why isn’t this GAFFE in thirty point type and all over the press this morning? Just imagine if Bill Shorten got something that badly wrong. Well we don’t have to: Remember ‘super-gate’ at the start of the campaign? Forty-eight hours of the campaign about BILLL IN TRUB. But cos its ScoMo…… crickets.
Morning all. I’m still catching up with the day, but I thought some would enjoy this.
(Seen 2 minutes ago.)
Geetroit
Yes, instead we get ‘Morrison was across the detail and Shorten wasn’t’ memes from the msm.
Geetroit
Yep. It is has always been thus…
Staring down the defeat:
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/downer-staring-at-defeat-again-at-hands-of-sharkie/news-story/c540ef2306f41eb798492f6675621796
@LR
Amusing.
Willaim secrecy in bed with the plebs ?
😀
Geetroit
.
.
Voted below the line. Put PHON “only” third-last, Rise Up Australia second-last and FRASER ANNING’S CONSERVATIVE NATIONALS last. About half the paper was filled with right wing nut jobs.
I’ve been following this guy for a long time with respect to foreign affairs, and the Trump saga. He is a conservative, but he posted this which was quite surprising …………
Pete EVANS
@911CORLEBRA777
My daughter has taken time out of her law studies to be a Electoral Returning Officer for a Federal Labor candidate in Western Australia. Spoke to her last night, looks like the Big Mo is on, support for Labor increasing
‘Absolutely horrendous’
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-09/families-with-severely-disabled-kids-giving-them-up-to-state/11092588
zoomster
Yep Shanana , front page of the GG re the debate
.
.
ScoMo’s details v Bill’s emotion
Scott Morrison is across detail and Bill Shorten is not.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/a-choice-between-morrisons-details-and-shortens-emotion/news-story/cddcad7ae7b8a088b3631c8283ac73ae
rhwombat @ #57 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 7:58 am
I noticed that this was a desperate trial where one person died before the treatment could be tailored. Is the speed of tailoring going to be the decisive issue given how quickly bacteria can mutate? Do phages attack cancer cells? (I don’t even know the right questions to ask.)
I may be a bit lonely but I thought the not-really-a-debate was pretty good. Both guys are obviously tired, I don’t know why they aren’t dead on their feet. Some observations in no particular order:
* It takes time for Bill to get going, but when he gets into a rhythm he’s pretty good.
* The Libs don’t have anything to sell but that past, and that’s mostly a fiction anyway.
* Sabra Lane did a good job, seems to understand when to let things take their course.
* Cheer squads were an embarrassment. It was like someone had invited those dickheads that ruin the tennis.
Morrison didn’t score very often – his talking points are known to be distortions for the most part and that’s all he really has. His first question to Shorten was about something I didn’t even know about – anyone here know what’s happening with the super of the self-employed?
Also, he really shouldn’t go on the attack regarding the Labor team, all it does is expose how useless the Libs are.
Shorten’s big wins, for mine, were when he demonstrated how out of touch with the reality the government is with child care and the housing market. There are problems that the govt doesn’t seem to know about, and that’s electoral death.
@AEC
As of COB Wednesday 8 May approximately 1.4m people have cast their vote at an early voting centre for the 2019 federal election. About 237k were cast yesterday. #ausvotes #auspol
Well, this makes Napoleon sound quite progressive —
https://www.dummies.com/education/history/world-history/napoleon-bonapartes-lasting-contributions/
Put in place a legal system which still exists today, reformed the economic system (including creating a central bank), established religious freedom, abolished slavery and serfdom, ended discrimination against the Jews, promoted education (including for girls) and improved literacy levels.
Hard to work out why someone who says they’re Green would dislike him.
Yes Cameron C https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/05/09/bludgertrack-51-8-48-2-labor-2/comment-page-2/#comment-3161270 – I find it very depressing that for my BTL I had to put Corey Bernardy’s mob ahead of the even worse dross you list.
@business insider:
The Australian dollar is under pressure as trade talks resume between US and China
http://bit.ly/2Vl8SWq