Three new polls over the last week, from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, have made next to no difference on BludgerTrack’s reading of the two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection. The only change to report is movement from the major parties to the minor parties on the primary vote, with One Nation in particular bouncing back a little after a recent slump. I am not calculating a trend for the United Australia Party at this point – that will only change if I can find the time for it.
With little change in the state breakdowns, the story there continues to be consistent with both sides’ assessment of the situation everywhere except Queensland, where Labor is being credited with what seems an inordinately big swing. It should be noted that BludgerTrack is currently a lot richer in national than state-level data, which should hopefully change reasonably soon with the publication of breakdowns from Newspoll. As ever, it will be interesting to see what these numbers have to say about Queensland.
Newspoll and Ipsos both provided leadership ratings for the week, which caused both leaders to drop slightly on net approval, and resulted in no change whatsoever on preferred prime minister. However, this involved a cancelling out effect of two sets of numbers that were dramatically different from each other, after fairly dramatic bias adjustment measures were applied to Ipsos. So if you look carefully at the leadership ratings trend charts on the BludgerTrack display, the Ipsos results for preferred prime minister and Scott Morrison’s net approval show up as fairly dramatic outliers.
The normal form of Ipsos is to produce more flattering leadership approval numbers than other pollsters, particularly in relation to the Prime Minister. Scott Morrison continued to record a net favourable rating of +3% in the latest poll, but this was seven down on last time, and five worse than his previous low point. There was none of this from Newspoll though, which recorded next to no change. Similarly, it was a case of up from Ipsos and down from Newspoll for Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, with the latter carrying slightly the greater weight.
The full display is available through the link below – and, as ever, don’t miss Seat du jour, today detailing with Corangamite.
Cud Chewer @ #743 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 9:43 pm
Ita’s there for a reason. 🙂
Private health insurance rebates = Taking taxpayer money and putting it in the hands of shareholders of Private Health Insurance companies. It’s theft!
“The Libs must have got some money from somewhere. I’m seeing lots of ads both on SBS and during the NRL on 9”
About 49% of the voters want them to win, but 95% of the money. They have supporters with very deep pockets.
Found it. Had to go back to my trusty Recollections of a Bleeding Heart for some clues.
Twas the day before the election ….
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-keating-we-never-knew-20020506-gdf96m.html
C@t:
I’d argue you have to pay out of pocket expenses ESPECIALLY if you have private health insurance!
Cud Chewer
I would predict
Newspoll – 930pm Sunday 12th May
Morgan – Monday 13th May
Essential – 4am Tuesday 14th May
?Ipsos – who knows – maybe one Monday/Tuesday
Newspoll – Friday night 17th May or maybe even Saturday morning 18th May
??YouGov – who knows
LR
Put me down for
Newspoll 50 / 50
Essential 52 /48
Election night TPP 51.8 /48.2
Final TPP 52.4 / 47.6
Labor to win 89 seats
Simon² Katich® @ 9:32 pm
There was also an episode in 1996 when Keating snapped “Get a Job” at some protester, and then later denied that he’d done so. Unfortunately it was all on film, and the Liberals put together a deadly ad which had both the original outburst and the false denial. It wasn’t just ugly, but played into their theme that Keating was aggressive, arrogant, and not to be trusted.
Cud:
I’m surprised more hasn’t been made of his comments. It was a very arrogant statement.
Keating said the ‘get a job’ to university students on a campus somewhere.
Looking for their Latham moment.
Kinda think it’s getting too late for all that.
ScoMo has wasted a month rabbiting on about “Bill Shorten”, trying to turn the whole show into a Presidential barnstorm.
He’s had to do that because he can’t get anyone with anything other than local stump appeal to nod heads behind him. Meet the local no-name, our candidate until his or her twitter account is put through the wringer.
He has to play the “fuhrer” because there is no team. And by pkay, I mean play: eating carrots, playing housey, pouring beer on his own head, pretending to drive trucks, glad-handing the innocent and the guilty alike, speaking in numeric tongues, everything is billions, trillions, wearing silly hats, and always smirking the fake smirk of the phoney.
Thete’s a week to go, including an excruciation on Sunday where he can’t get any previous PMs to turn up because the dead one left the party, the weird one knows now that Scotty organized someone else to stab him in the back, and the pompous twat from Point Piper never was a Liberal in the first place, and prefers the Upper West Side of New York (the one thing the Nazi trogs from Queensland were right about).
ScoMo, a leader without a team, finds himself once again doing it on his own. Goosestepping didn’t work at Tourism NZ or Oz, and it’s still not working. Some things do not change: there is no Energizer Bunny, and the sack is his only logical fate.
Howard will be there in all his glory. Possibly Abbott too, political father and son.
Outsider @ #721 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 9:12 pm
The pieces of silver for giving preferences to Palmer…
Bushfire Bill @ #735 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 9:31 pm
What kind of bullshit useless law is that?!
The use-case for requiring public declaration of political donations is so that voters can make an informed decision before they vote.
Confessions @ #753 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 9:55 pm
Exackerley! 😆
So it was rather ‘Mean and Tricky’ of Morrison to try and herd people into that pen.
Wasn’t just arrogant, it was very illuminating of the Liberal’s broken world view.
And good on Bill Shorten and Labor for saying up front that, should they be elected to government, they will be having a long, hard look at the Private Health Insurance Rebate.
nick168
@njm3864
Replying to
@lenoretaylor
Tony Koch has called this perfectly
In recent times the demise of the
@australian
has been called out consistently on social media. I guess if yesterday’s repulsive effort was needed to have MSM join in then that’s great. Their prima donnas won’t be interested but bosses may be!
·
The Lucky General
@LJPatton
·
7h
Replying to
@lenoretaylor
As a member of
@withMEAA
I applaud any working journalist brave enough to comment on the appalling bias that now permeates the Murdoch press.
Linda LoPresti
@MsLindaLopresti
·
4h
Is it just the Murdoch press?
1
Gordon Lawrence #RF100
@666Tweet
·
3h
The #Murdocracy are the worst offenders. Worth noting that #NZ and #Canada do not have #NewsCorpse papers.
I hope
@AustralianLabor
change the media ownership rules when they’re in govt.
Julian Cribb
@JulianCribb
·
6h
Replying to
@lenoretaylor
As a former science editor on The Oz, I share his anguish, shame and embarrassment that the paper we sought to build as a beacon of responsible, accurate, truthful reporting has become the Volkischer Beobachter of the New Right.
‘Keating said the ‘get a job’ to university students on a campus somewhere.’
He said it out of the corner of his mouth with a cheeky smile….he was taking the piss….and it was obvious…….to some anyway….
I’ve been wondering why Malcolm Turnbull HASN’T let a few skeletons out of the closet about the Liberal Party before the election?
I don’t think he’ll do it next week either.
Re election ads, as BB says, the Coalition is on high rotation on SBS “the Bill you can’t afford”. I saw a bit of ESPN last night (pay TV sports). Labor was on high rotation there. Meanwhile I’ve got the “Liberal for Bradfield” (wrong electorate) on PB and Clive popped up in Youtube. And now Labor on SBS (stop the chaos).
By the way, SBS is now as bad as the commercials. An ad comes on and you can go out and mow the lawn or write a 2,000 word essay during the break.
mundo
says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 10:10 pm
‘Keating said the ‘get a job’ to university students on a campus somewhere.’
He said it out of the corner of his mouth with a cheeky smile….he was taking the piss….and it was obvious…….to some anyway….
_______________________
Yes that’s how I remember it.
Confessions
It was reported today that Howard would be in WA on Sunday.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-election-2019/federal-election-2019-john-howard-to-skip-coalition-launch-ng-b881193463z
Spot on I say
Gary Fallon
@GaryFallon2
·
8h
Statement of the day from Bill Shorten?
“If you are poor and disadvantaged, this government will sick the debt collectors on it you.
But if you’re Clive Palmer and you owe your workers tens of millions of dollars, Mr Morrison will put you in the Senate.”
#AusVotes2019 #auspol
“I’ve been wondering why Malcolm Turnbull HASN’T let a few skeletons out of the closet about the Liberal Party before the election?”
Maybe:
1. It would reflect badly on him. He was a senior Minister for Abbott then titular leader.
2. None of the business establishment would talk to him again.
Why doesn’t labor put this info in adverts for eg
Tara Fatehi
@xiiivixc
·
22h
This graphic by
@ABCFactCheck
on franking credits is incredible. 52.66% of all franking credits claimed have a fund balance of over $2,443,843 million dollars. Unbelievable. #Auspol #AusVotes19
Simon Katich
To this day I am so annoyed that after getting the early edition of the Sunday Herald-Sun (which was I think around midnight on Saturday night 13th March 1993) I later found out on the Sunday that an earlier edition (maybe one that was put on trains and sent to regional centres) had the headline “Hewson in photo finish”. Whereas mine had “Keating in photo finish” (I remember it as the main headline).
Some photographer should have got Keating to hold up a copy of that first one (of course he was in Sydney and I don’t think the Daily Telegraph made the same mistake). But it could have been an iconic
image – like “Dewey Defeats Truman”.
By the way, SBS is now as bad as the commercials. An ad comes on and you can go out and mow the lawn or write a 2,000 word essay during the break.
You must have a very big backyard, or can pump out 2000 words very quickly.
Howard to be in WA. He thought it was going to be Hobart.
Someone did get Keating to sign their copy though!
Rossmcg:
I’m shocked. I’d have thought Howard would be there front and centre as a former Liberal PM. But apparently not, unless there’s a last minute schedule change.
C@tmomma @ #771 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 10:11 pm
He can’t even open his mouth and state an opinion on climate-change without the media screaming “intervention”. Could easily backfire on him.
The exception would be that meeting where Morrison suggested vilifying Muslims as a way to scare up some votes, which the Coalition has made a weak attempt to bury. Turnbull should totally spill all the details about that meeting.
Ad Man from Mad Men wearing a Westpac cap
The same Westpac which is busy reducing overheads – by sacking employees
Meanwhile, Ad Man from Mad Men’s good mate, Maxstead, survives
The very same Maxstead who Ad Man from Mad Men supported on 26 occasions in the parliament before the facts got in the way and Maxstead went to Ad Man from Mad Men saying call a Royal Commission but here are the Terms of Reference – and we have added Funds Management so you can go after Unions and Industry Superannuation Funds
How well did that play out
And Ad Man from Mad Men wears a Westpac hat, promoting that bank
The mind absolutely boggles at the simplistic nonsense being paraded before the Australian Public by this coal hugging bogan of disrepute
Given up on Project Blue Book on SBS. Totally unwatchable with the ads. Should have pre-recorded.
a r @ #783 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 10:20 pm
Like the rest of the Liberals, Trumbull is just a craven coward.
If you vote 1 LNP on May 18 you’ll get a deranged bingo caller in a baseball cap.
If there is a show on SBS I want to watch I tend to use the online catchup service, still has ads but fsr fewer and the ones they have are often the same one repeated so it’s a bit more benign – easier to tune them out.
Victoria @ 10:17.
I’m assuming that the tweet quoted is saying that over 50% of franking credits go to people with over $2.4 million worth or shares (not 2.4 trillion). Or super fund balances of over $2.4 million?
I got a strange call tonight, left a voicemail, all about voting for the party that would put your rents up less, and I thought it was probably an illegal LNP add, but I wasn’t sure, and it didn’t say, and certainly didn’t have a ‘authorised by’ at the end.
Seeing rebates of Private Health Care premiums mentioned
Perhaps a rebate of premiums could be on offer to Retirees because with their Allocated Pension being tax free there is no rebate for the premiums paid
You pay full tote odds
A better outcome than Franking Credits which favour those who have received such advice – so not every retiree but, with the publicity, there will be plenty more jumping in looking for better returns than interest rates on Term Deposits
Noting Share prices fall and dividends can be reduced or suspended (refer Company announcements over the past couple of days including from NAB)
Steve777
Here is graph
https://mobile.twitter.com/xiiivixc/status/1126128412928512000
As predictable as an ad man can be, seems like Scotts been doing all the stunts, everyday he is dressing up doing something daggy in front of the camera.
I haven’t seen, or at least I don’t remember seeing any done by Bill so far, I have seen some videos online of him speaking to large groups of workers, and I know he is still doing town hall meetings.
Rocket
We still have the ‘Hewson by a nose’ edition in a cupboard somewhere.
When we heard about it on the radio, we realised that our newsagent (being rural) would have received copies of the early edition, and we raced in to secure our copy!
There are some elections you don’t want to win. And that might be the case for the poll next Saturday between Bill Shorten and Scott Morrison.
Becoming prime minister just when the economy falls apart is like being put in the driver’s seat of the bus just before it goes off a cliff.
Australia’s economy is still sputtering along, but there are enough warning signs to ask if this is an election a politician really wants to win.
https://m.echonews.com.au/news/its-a-poisoned-chalice-the-ticking-time-bomb-lying/3723069/
a r @ #783 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 10:20 pm
I think he will have revenge. If, as reputed, he killed a cat because he got jilted, what would he do to someone that destroyed a life long dream and humiliated him in front of the whole country? He may not do it openly though. Perhaps a lucky member of the media gets a red hot anonomous tip…
Someone may have already posted this – $150 million cuts to Home Affairs Department with job losses to follow – but didn’t it cost $185 million for Morrison’s ‘photo-opportunity’ at Christmas Island?
https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/fears-of-home-affairs-job-losses-as-government-cuts-staff-budget-by-150-million-20190509-p51lok.html#comments
When I was young I knew someone who drank bongwater once, and not by accident.
I know we’re in the last turn into the election straight in Oz, but I miss the Brexit pages, and a couple of things appear to have happened today on the Brexit front. (So scroll-alert. )
(1) Britain & Ireland signed an agreement to protect Irish and British citizens in both countries in the event of a No Deal Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/08/british-irish-deal-guarantee-rights-citizens-after-brexit
It seems like some of the ducks are still paddling.
(2) Labour is signalling support for a second referendum.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/09/brexit-leave-remain-labour-jeremy-corbyn-campaign-launch-european-elections
I read this as an attempt to limit the damage when Labour starts officially supporting Remain, under a new label. There’s also talk about ‘austerity-bad’, but it feels like cover for the deeper shift.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/may/09/brexit-latest-news-corbyn-manifesto-launch-corbyn-seeks-to-make-euro-elections-about-social-justice-not-brexit-as-he-launches-labour-campaign-live-news
Getting direct now.
Regular blog resumes… 🙂
@Victoria
At least 80% of all franking credits are claimed by millionaires ( I suspect real %age is closer to 90% when you take other assets into account )