BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor

Labor retains its modest yet decisive lead as three new polls record little change on two-party preferred, and two very different sets of leadership ratings largely cancel each other out.

Three new polls over the last week, from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, have made next to no difference on BludgerTrack’s reading of the two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection. The only change to report is movement from the major parties to the minor parties on the primary vote, with One Nation in particular bouncing back a little after a recent slump. I am not calculating a trend for the United Australia Party at this point – that will only change if I can find the time for it.

With little change in the state breakdowns, the story there continues to be consistent with both sides’ assessment of the situation everywhere except Queensland, where Labor is being credited with what seems an inordinately big swing. It should be noted that BludgerTrack is currently a lot richer in national than state-level data, which should hopefully change reasonably soon with the publication of breakdowns from Newspoll. As ever, it will be interesting to see what these numbers have to say about Queensland.

Newspoll and Ipsos both provided leadership ratings for the week, which caused both leaders to drop slightly on net approval, and resulted in no change whatsoever on preferred prime minister. However, this involved a cancelling out effect of two sets of numbers that were dramatically different from each other, after fairly dramatic bias adjustment measures were applied to Ipsos. So if you look carefully at the leadership ratings trend charts on the BludgerTrack display, the Ipsos results for preferred prime minister and Scott Morrison’s net approval show up as fairly dramatic outliers.

The normal form of Ipsos is to produce more flattering leadership approval numbers than other pollsters, particularly in relation to the Prime Minister. Scott Morrison continued to record a net favourable rating of +3% in the latest poll, but this was seven down on last time, and five worse than his previous low point. There was none of this from Newspoll though, which recorded next to no change. Similarly, it was a case of up from Ipsos and down from Newspoll for Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, with the latter carrying slightly the greater weight.

The full display is available through the link below – and, as ever, don’t miss Seat du jour, today detailing with Corangamite.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

872 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor”

Comments Page 16 of 18
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  1. Private health insurance rebates = Taking taxpayer money and putting it in the hands of shareholders of Private Health Insurance companies. It’s theft!

  2. “The Libs must have got some money from somewhere. I鈥檓 seeing lots of ads both on SBS and during the NRL on 9”

    About 49% of the voters want them to win, but 95% of the money. They have supporters with very deep pockets.

  3. Found it. Had to go back to my trusty Recollections of a Bleeding Heart for some clues.
    Twas the day before the election ….

    On the way to the press conference, Mark Ryan told the driver to stop 20 metres before the car park, by the footpath where the press had gathered for one last photograph. The Prime Minister said drive on, drive past the bastards, they’ve had enough. And the front page of every election day newspaper, we said, will have a photo of Keating with his head down slinking into an underground car park in a Commonwealth car. The driver stopped. Grumbling, the Prime Minister got out. High on the Macquarie Tower, workers were calling out. “What do those characters want?” he asked. We might have said, they’re wondering if they should leap into the unknown. “They’re workers,” we said, “they’re saying, ‘Go Paul!'” “Is that what they’re saying?” he said. It was. “Good on them,” he said, and acknowledged them with a wave and a sunny smile. And when they cheered, he gave them the victory salute.
    It was the best photo of the campaign – he looked confident, charming and warm, a real man of the people, a real leader – and it was on several election day front pages.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-keating-we-never-knew-20020506-gdf96m.html

  4. Cud Chewer

    I would predict

    Newspoll – 930pm Sunday 12th May
    Morgan – Monday 13th May
    Essential – 4am Tuesday 14th May
    ?Ipsos – who knows – maybe one Monday/Tuesday
    Newspoll – Friday night 17th May or maybe even Saturday morning 18th May
    ??YouGov – who knows

  5. LR

    Put me down for
    Newspoll 50 / 50
    Essential 52 /48
    Election night TPP 51.8 /48.2
    Final TPP 52.4 / 47.6
    Labor to win 89 seats

  6. Simon虏 Katich庐 @ 9:32 pm

    There was also an episode in 1996 when Keating snapped “Get a Job” at some protester, and then later denied that he’d done so. Unfortunately it was all on film, and the Liberals put together a deadly ad which had both the original outburst and the false denial. It wasn’t just ugly, but played into their theme that Keating was aggressive, arrogant, and not to be trusted.

  7. Looking for their Latham moment.

    Kinda think it’s getting too late for all that.

    ScoMo has wasted a month rabbiting on about “Bill Shorten”, trying to turn the whole show into a Presidential barnstorm.

    He’s had to do that because he can’t get anyone with anything other than local stump appeal to nod heads behind him. Meet the local no-name, our candidate until his or her twitter account is put through the wringer.

    He has to play the “fuhrer” because there is no team. And by pkay, I mean play: eating carrots, playing housey, pouring beer on his own head, pretending to drive trucks, glad-handing the innocent and the guilty alike, speaking in numeric tongues, everything is billions, trillions, wearing silly hats, and always smirking the fake smirk of the phoney.

    Thete’s a week to go, including an excruciation on Sunday where he can’t get any previous PMs to turn up because the dead one left the party, the weird one knows now that Scotty organized someone else to stab him in the back, and the pompous twat from Point Piper never was a Liberal in the first place, and prefers the Upper West Side of New York (the one thing the Nazi trogs from Queensland were right about).

    ScoMo, a leader without a team, finds himself once again doing it on his own. Goosestepping didn’t work at Tourism NZ or Oz, and it’s still not working. Some things do not change: there is no Energizer Bunny, and the sack is his only logical fate.

  8. Thete鈥檚 a week to go, including an excruciation on Sunday where he can鈥檛 get any previous PMs to turn up because the dead one left the party, the weird one knows now that Scotty organized someone else to stab him in the back, and the pompous twat from Point Piper never was a Liberal in the first place, and prefers the Upper West Side of New York (the one thing the Nazi trogs from Queensland were right about).

    Howard will be there in all his glory. Possibly Abbott too, political father and son.

  9. Bushfire Bill @ #735 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 9:31 pm

    Which will all be confirmed in another year, when donation laws require declaration.

    What kind of bullshit useless law is that?!

    The use-case for requiring public declaration of political donations is so that voters can make an informed decision before they vote.

  10. And good on Bill Shorten and Labor for saying up front that, should they be elected to government, they will be having a long, hard look at the Private Health Insurance Rebate.

  11. nick168
    @njm3864

    Replying to
    @lenoretaylor
    Tony Koch has called this perfectly

    In recent times the demise of the
    @australian
    has been called out consistently on social media. I guess if yesterday’s repulsive effort was needed to have MSM join in then that’s great. Their prima donnas won’t be interested but bosses may be!

    The Lucky General
    @LJPatton

    7h
    Replying to
    @lenoretaylor
    As a member of
    @withMEAA
    I applaud any working journalist brave enough to comment on the appalling bias that now permeates the Murdoch press.

    Linda LoPresti
    @MsLindaLopresti

    4h
    Is it just the Murdoch press?

    1

    Gordon Lawrence #RF100
    @666Tweet

    3h
    The #Murdocracy are the worst offenders. Worth noting that #NZ and #Canada do not have #NewsCorpse papers.

    I hope
    @AustralianLabor
    change the media ownership rules when they’re in govt.

    Julian Cribb
    @JulianCribb

    6h
    Replying to
    @lenoretaylor
    As a former science editor on The Oz, I share his anguish, shame and embarrassment that the paper we sought to build as a beacon of responsible, accurate, truthful reporting has become the Volkischer Beobachter of the New Right.

  12. ‘Keating said the 鈥榞et a job鈥 to university students on a campus somewhere.’
    He said it out of the corner of his mouth with a cheeky smile….he was taking the piss….and it was obvious…….to some anyway….

  13. Ben ElthamVerified account @beneltham
    41m41 minutes ago
    The Coalition couldn’t even send Marise Payne to debate Penny Wong on foreign affairs this week. They sent Birmingham. The Foreign Minister of Australia was unable to debate foreign policy in an election campaign. It doesn’t say much about the Coalition’s fitness to govern.

  14. I’ve been wondering why Malcolm Turnbull HASN’T let a few skeletons out of the closet about the Liberal Party before the election?

    I don’t think he’ll do it next week either.

  15. Re election ads, as BB says, the Coalition is on high rotation on SBS “the Bill you can’t afford”. I saw a bit of ESPN last night (pay TV sports). Labor was on high rotation there. Meanwhile I’ve got the “Liberal for Bradfield” (wrong electorate) on PB and Clive popped up in Youtube. And now Labor on SBS (stop the chaos).

    By the way, SBS is now as bad as the commercials. An ad comes on and you can go out and mow the lawn or write a 2,000 word essay during the break.

  16. mundo
    says:
    Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 10:10 pm
    鈥楰eating said the 鈥榞et a job鈥 to university students on a campus somewhere.鈥
    He said it out of the corner of his mouth with a cheeky smile鈥.he was taking the piss鈥.and it was obvious鈥︹.to some anyway鈥.
    _______________________
    Yes that’s how I remember it.

  17. Spot on I say

    Gary Fallon
    @GaryFallon2

    8h
    Statement of the day from Bill Shorten?
    “If you are poor and disadvantaged, this government will sick the debt collectors on it you.
    But if you鈥檙e Clive Palmer and you owe your workers tens of millions of dollars, Mr Morrison will put you in the Senate.”
    #AusVotes2019 #auspol

  18. “I鈥檝e been wondering why Malcolm Turnbull HASN鈥橳 let a few skeletons out of the closet about the Liberal Party before the election?”

    Maybe:
    1. It would reflect badly on him. He was a senior Minister for Abbott then titular leader.
    2. None of the business establishment would talk to him again.

  19. Why doesn’t labor put this info in adverts for eg

    Tara Fatehi
    @xiiivixc

    22h
    This graphic by
    @ABCFactCheck
    on franking credits is incredible. 52.66% of all franking credits claimed have a fund balance of over $2,443,843 million dollars. Unbelievable. #Auspol #AusVotes19

  20. Simon Katich

    To this day I am so annoyed that after getting the early edition of the Sunday Herald-Sun (which was I think around midnight on Saturday night 13th March 1993) I later found out on the Sunday that an earlier edition (maybe one that was put on trains and sent to regional centres) had the headline “Hewson in photo finish”. Whereas mine had “Keating in photo finish” (I remember it as the main headline).

    Some photographer should have got Keating to hold up a copy of that first one (of course he was in Sydney and I don’t think the Daily Telegraph made the same mistake). But it could have been an iconic
    image – like “Dewey Defeats Truman”.

  21. By the way, SBS is now as bad as the commercials. An ad comes on and you can go out and mow the lawn or write a 2,000 word essay during the break.

    You must have a very big backyard, or can pump out 2000 words very quickly.

  22. Rossmcg:

    I’m shocked. I’d have thought Howard would be there front and centre as a former Liberal PM. But apparently not, unless there’s a last minute schedule change.

  23. C@tmomma @ #771 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 10:11 pm

    I’ve been wondering why Malcolm Turnbull HASN’T let a few skeletons out of the closet about the Liberal Party before the election?

    He can’t even open his mouth and state an opinion on climate-change without the media screaming “intervention”. Could easily backfire on him.

    The exception would be that meeting where Morrison suggested vilifying Muslims as a way to scare up some votes, which the Coalition has made a weak attempt to bury. Turnbull should totally spill all the details about that meeting.

  24. Ad Man from Mad Men wearing a Westpac cap

    The same Westpac which is busy reducing overheads – by sacking employees

    Meanwhile, Ad Man from Mad Men鈥檚 good mate, Maxstead, survives

    The very same Maxstead who Ad Man from Mad Men supported on 26 occasions in the parliament before the facts got in the way and Maxstead went to Ad Man from Mad Men saying call a Royal Commission but here are the Terms of Reference – and we have added Funds Management so you can go after Unions and Industry Superannuation Funds

    How well did that play out

    And Ad Man from Mad Men wears a Westpac hat, promoting that bank

    The mind absolutely boggles at the simplistic nonsense being paraded before the Australian Public by this coal hugging bogan of disrepute

  25. a r @ #783 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 10:20 pm

    C@tmomma @ #771 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 10:11 pm

    I’ve been wondering why Malcolm Turnbull HASN’T let a few skeletons out of the closet about the Liberal Party before the election?

    He can’t open his mouth and state an opinion on climate-change without the media screaming “intervention”. Could easily backfire on him.

    The exception would be that meeting where Morrison suggested vilifying Muslims as a way to scare up some votes, which the Coalition has made a weak attempt to bury. Turnbull should totally spill all the details about that meeting.

    Like the rest of the Liberals, Trumbull is just a craven coward.

  26. If there is a show on SBS I want to watch I tend to use the online catchup service, still has ads but fsr fewer and the ones they have are often the same one repeated so it’s a bit more benign – easier to tune them out.

  27. Victoria @ 10:17.

    I’m assuming that the tweet quoted is saying that over 50% of franking credits go to people with over $2.4 million worth or shares (not 2.4 trillion). Or super fund balances of over $2.4 million?

  28. I got a strange call tonight, left a voicemail, all about voting for the party that would put your rents up less, and I thought it was probably an illegal LNP add, but I wasn’t sure, and it didn’t say, and certainly didn’t have a ‘authorised by’ at the end.

  29. Seeing rebates of Private Health Care premiums mentioned

    Perhaps a rebate of premiums could be on offer to Retirees because with their Allocated Pension being tax free there is no rebate for the premiums paid

    You pay full tote odds

    A better outcome than Franking Credits which favour those who have received such advice – so not every retiree but, with the publicity, there will be plenty more jumping in looking for better returns than interest rates on Term Deposits

    Noting Share prices fall and dividends can be reduced or suspended (refer Company announcements over the past couple of days including from NAB)

  30. As predictable as an ad man can be, seems like Scotts been doing all the stunts, everyday he is dressing up doing something daggy in front of the camera.
    I haven’t seen, or at least I don’t remember seeing any done by Bill so far, I have seen some videos online of him speaking to large groups of workers, and I know he is still doing town hall meetings.

  31. Rocket

    We still have the ‘Hewson by a nose’ edition in a cupboard somewhere.

    When we heard about it on the radio, we realised that our newsagent (being rural) would have received copies of the early edition, and we raced in to secure our copy!

  32. There are some elections you don’t want to win. And that might be the case for the poll next Saturday between Bill Shorten and Scott Morrison.

    Becoming prime minister just when the economy falls apart is like being put in the driver’s seat of the bus just before it goes off a cliff.

    Australia’s economy is still sputtering along, but there are enough warning signs to ask if this is an election a politician really wants to win.

    https://m.echonews.com.au/news/its-a-poisoned-chalice-the-ticking-time-bomb-lying/3723069/

  33. a r @ #783 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 10:20 pm

    C@tmomma @ #771 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 10:11 pm

    I’ve been wondering why Malcolm Turnbull HASN’T let a few skeletons out of the closet about the Liberal Party before the election?

    He can’t open his mouth and state an opinion on climate-change without the media screaming “intervention”. Could easily backfire on him.

    The exception would be that meeting where Morrison suggested vilifying Muslims as a way to scare up some votes, which the Coalition has made a weak attempt to bury. Turnbull should totally spill all the details about that meeting.

    I think he will have revenge. If, as reputed, he killed a cat because he got jilted, what would he do to someone that destroyed a life long dream and humiliated him in front of the whole country? He may not do it openly though. Perhaps a lucky member of the media gets a red hot anonomous tip…

  34. I know we’re in the last turn into the election straight in Oz, but I miss the Brexit pages, and a couple of things appear to have happened today on the Brexit front. (So scroll-alert. )

    (1) Britain & Ireland signed an agreement to protect Irish and British citizens in both countries in the event of a No Deal Brexit.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/08/british-irish-deal-guarantee-rights-citizens-after-brexit

    Deal secures rights conferred under common travel area and associated bilateral accords

    It seems like some of the ducks are still paddling.

    (2) Labour is signalling support for a second referendum.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/09/brexit-leave-remain-labour-jeremy-corbyn-campaign-launch-european-elections

    Jeremy Corbyn has urged the public to discard the labels of leave and remain in order to prevent the Brexit debate from becoming an 鈥渆ndless loop鈥.

    I read this as an attempt to limit the damage when Labour starts officially supporting Remain, under a new label. There’s also talk about ‘austerity-bad’, but it feels like cover for the deeper shift.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/may/09/brexit-latest-news-corbyn-manifesto-launch-corbyn-seeks-to-make-euro-elections-about-social-justice-not-brexit-as-he-launches-labour-campaign-live-news

    Corbyn said he thought a second referendum on Brexit could be 鈥渁 healing process鈥. He made the comment in his Q&A after a speech in which he suggested that Labour would not back a people鈥檚 vote on a Brexit deal it supported.

    Getting direct now.

    Regular blog resumes… 馃檪

  35. @Victoria
    At least 80% of all franking credits are claimed by millionaires ( I suspect real %age is closer to 90% when you take other assets into account )

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