Three new polls over the last week, from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, have made next to no difference on BludgerTrack’s reading of the two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection. The only change to report is movement from the major parties to the minor parties on the primary vote, with One Nation in particular bouncing back a little after a recent slump. I am not calculating a trend for the United Australia Party at this point – that will only change if I can find the time for it.
With little change in the state breakdowns, the story there continues to be consistent with both sides’ assessment of the situation everywhere except Queensland, where Labor is being credited with what seems an inordinately big swing. It should be noted that BludgerTrack is currently a lot richer in national than state-level data, which should hopefully change reasonably soon with the publication of breakdowns from Newspoll. As ever, it will be interesting to see what these numbers have to say about Queensland.
Newspoll and Ipsos both provided leadership ratings for the week, which caused both leaders to drop slightly on net approval, and resulted in no change whatsoever on preferred prime minister. However, this involved a cancelling out effect of two sets of numbers that were dramatically different from each other, after fairly dramatic bias adjustment measures were applied to Ipsos. So if you look carefully at the leadership ratings trend charts on the BludgerTrack display, the Ipsos results for preferred prime minister and Scott Morrison’s net approval show up as fairly dramatic outliers.
The normal form of Ipsos is to produce more flattering leadership approval numbers than other pollsters, particularly in relation to the Prime Minister. Scott Morrison continued to record a net favourable rating of +3% in the latest poll, but this was seven down on last time, and five worse than his previous low point. There was none of this from Newspoll though, which recorded next to no change. Similarly, it was a case of up from Ipsos and down from Newspoll for Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, with the latter carrying slightly the greater weight.
The full display is available through the link below – and, as ever, don’t miss Seat du jour, today detailing with Corangamite.
Would be consistent with his ‘ticker’ to notice he probably doesn’t need to do anything, and to pay out after the election. His son Alex seemed to be up to something with his inane centrist persona popping up on twitter, but if the Turnbulls are going to build a dynasty and new centrist sharp Liberal party, smarter to wait until the old liberal party kills itself. If not this election, then the one after.
Why hasn’t Turnbull said anything? Either there’s nothing to say, he wants the LNP to win, or he simply DGAF.
Maybe a narrow Hewson victory in 1993 would have saved us from Howard. Hewson proves as popular as Campbell Newman did 20 years later, an economic Thatcherite but not a paleoconservative, he does less damage to the nation’s soul than Howard. Labor back in 1996 or 1999, Kim Beasley PM, Republic in 2001…
On the other hand, a narrow Liberal victory in 1961 gave us 11 more years of stultifying Coalition rule.
You can never predict the remote consequences of events…
hasnt the usa used thier position to fuck the world…………now there upset china wants to the same more hunanely without bombs .
Quit your whinging and step into the 21st Century BB… Netflix. Zero Ads.
I hate ads from both parties. Lame black and white “gotcha” grabs set for an audience with and average IQ of 70… What a colossal waste of money. Save your money and buy Aussie made T-shirts for volunteers maybe?? 😉
Enough people have been suffering under the ‘good’ economy of Morrison that this isn’t really a ‘good’ to ‘bad’ shift. For many it will be ‘we have been telling you this sucks since 2008.’
Zeh
I’m wondering why Labor haven’t been more articulate in this space.
I see Chris Uhlman still making a goose of himself over energy..
https://twitter.com/CUhlmann/status/1126337274805796864
Will he ever learn?
Steve777
says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 10:43 pm
Maybe a narrow Hewson victory in 1993 would have saved us from Howard. Hewson proves as popular as Campbell Newman did 20 years later, an economic Thatcherite but not a paleoconservative, he does less damage to the nation’s soul than Howard. Labor back in 1996 or 1999, Kim Beasley PM, Republic in 2001…
_________________________________
Interesting. PM Hewson, not being a conservative like Howard, fails to defuse Pauline’s One Nation leading Queensland to elect a ON government that then secedes from the Commonwealth.
Late Riser
Things must be grim up north, aye, grim. Polly Toynbee in The Guardian, with maybe a lesson at the end for certain Australian politicians.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/09/british-populist-boris-johnson-prime-minister
This week I was in Middlesbrough, surveying Labour’s local election wreckage. The party now controls not one Tees Valley council, losing Middlesbrough, Redcar, Stockton, Hartlepool and Darlington. “We all got beaten,” said one of the surviving Labour councillors, grimacing at the pain of it. The regional mayor is Tory, and in Middlesbrough the new mayor is a multimillionaire hedge-funding property developer, standing as an independent.
The council was won by independents, because, say distraught Labour campaigners, any party label was death for candidates. Brexit was important, but the anti-politics feeling was stronger, and anti-Corbynism took its toll among Labour voters, too. “One old chap came into the Labour office – our office! – to ask us how to stand as an independent. We had to explain politely we were Labour, and not that keen. He put out a leaflet listing his hobbies, but not much else.” He won because the label “independent” was all it took.
…
As both main parties stagger under the impact of Brexit, with both failing miserably to cope with it, the old two-and-a-bit party system looks fragile. With or without electoral reform, real politics will reassert itself, as rag-tag oppositionists taking power in councils discover the seriousness of their political calling. Once forced to confront the tough choices, trade-offs and compromises of this essential and honourable profession, newcomers will have to learn the hard way: populism may get you into office – but then what?
Then there was Murdoch in Victoria with the headline that Kennett had been returned
Labor won the subsequent by-election for Kennett’s seat caused by Kennett resigning from the parliament following his defeat
private health is a scam every 2 dollars spent = 1 dollar spent on a public system……private is crap it allows poor people to die it makes for absurd costs and most importantly it encourages a system that allows the wrong people to be docs cause there motivation is money not helping.
WWP
Snap!
At the start of the message I was left it said it was authorised by F. Calabrese, Liberal Party Perth and then some guy called Damien Collins from REIWA went through his spiel.
Steve777 @ #774 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 10:16 pm
More 2 than 1. 🙂
Labor needs to tackle this ‘Death Tax’ rubbish being promulgated by One Nation and several desperate libs. I just did a google trend search for ‘Labor’ and the third most related term was ‘labor death tax’…
Just his raw abilities and how high he rose in the media raises serious questions about the quality of people going into media.
Rocket Rocket, I’ll be watching the EU elections and Farage’s new Brexit Party.
Keating started the whole modern ‘last minute scare’ campaign that both parties have used since. Ironically, it was Keating who first raised the prospect of a GST on the floor of parliament (1983 I believe?) and then, 10 years later, put the wind up all and sundry about the consequences…
Likewise, Keating, as treasurer, actually put into place policy which put fairness into place by avoiding double-taxation on dividends, via franking credits.
However, the wheels fell right off the ethical bandwagon when Shorten decided to scare sick grannies with a million printed “Medicare” style cards with blatant lies and robocall hundreds of thousands to tell them the LNP was privatising medicare… with no skerrick of evidence.
Blobbit @ #802 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 10:41 pm
Voters have a short memory. If Turnbull does fire, it will be when he can see the whites of their eyes.
Rocket Rocket, and over in the antipodes I question how independent “The Independents” are, if they’re already sharing advertising. We’ll see.
WTF is going on? Suddenly people are all pearl clutchy again?
WWP Uhlman’s special reporting on energy on the ABC was absolutely awful.
Although not directly attributable to bias, its a product of the creep to the right within ABC management culture.
When it comes to taking power at unfortunate economic moments, it would be hard to go past the Scullin government in 1929, who won government days before the Wall Street crash which heralded the Great Depression. Furthermore, the reason the election was happening in 1929 at all was because it was called early after the Bruce government was defeated on the floor of the house by one vote – a margin which would have been reversed had Indi not been handed to Labor at the 1928 election when the sitting Country Party member forgot to nominate.
Ex PM Howard will be a “special guest” of the Seniors Minister and current Member for Hasluck, Ken Wyatt at a seniors forum on Tuesday 14/5/2019 in Wattle Grove at 11am. The forum will “focus” on the “retirees tax”.
A previous post suggested Howard would be in WA over the weekend. This suggests to me that the next Member for Hasluck is likely to be James Martin and if the desiccated coconut is spending several days in WA they must be real concerned about other seats.
I could be wrong, perhaps Howards high moral standards won’t allow him to be at the same venue as Fauxmo so he decided to sneak of to the opposite side of the country.
Tom if you look at the twitter thread I link just above started by Uhlman, you’ll see Turnbull has commented on that, basically saying Uhlman is wrong.
“Becoming prime minister just when the economy falls apart is like being put in the driver’s seat of the bus just before it goes off a cliff.”
Vic, can see you point politically, but if the economy is about to turn to crap then i REALLY want the ALP to be in Govt. They will handle it better than the no plan, no clue Coalition.
The telling thing is the “rosy” assumptions in the coalitions budget. If they are going to frame a budget like that, with what, on evidence, may be coming, we really do not want them with their hands on the controls.
And on a positive note. Did a couple of hours calls for the ALP into Pearce tonight. Lots of volunteers optimistic and tails up. 🙂 No one thinks its in the bag, but the Libs have a fight on their hands that i reckon we are going to win. Also, got quite a few “already voted”.
If the Libs campaign launch Sunday is a farce and doesn’t go well they are burnt toast..
Cud Chewer @ #824 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 10:58 pm
Which shows he’s still in the game, but I think the main barrage is still to come and it will be well timed…
News Corp are slated to update results overnight Australian time
Reckon Turnbull will keep quiet if Blowhard is obviously going down in flames but if close he may be tempted to give a little nudge. As I reckon Blowhard has been out of puff for the last week or so and steadily getting worse, we won’t be hearing from Fizzer in any big way.
2016 federal election week Essential released 2 polls
one on Tuesday , and another on Friday, election eve
I’m surprised Turnbull hasn’t been more active fighting Abbott.
@imacca if we get over the line on Pearce, it’s going to be a great night! Defeating Porter would be so sweet.
It appears Labor advertising is very targeted.
Lots of ALP ads on SKY Racing and other sport channels. I suspect they looked to certain demographics and their viewing habits and went for those instead of the blanket stuff from the Libs and Palmer.
CC – Turnbull knows he doesn’t have to say anything. The libs are going down. Why put his fingerprints on it? Let Morrison own this one
Just Quietly @ #829 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 11:10 pm
That feels about right. Turnbull might just prefer to pointedly and innocently note that, unlike Morrison, he never lost an election as PM and that he had been rebuilding the coalition TPP when he was dumped, rather than be seen with muddy hands that match a solid hand print on Morrison’s back. The former victory might be sweeter and longer lasting, not to mention less risky and frankly lazier.
Imacca
I would put to you that the Right Wing ideology that austerity delivers confidence is the reason you never want the parties of the right in government in times of economic crisis
Read Stiglitz (as but one but with the reputation he correctly has)
We have seen the First Global Oil Crisis of 1973, the Stock Exchange Crash of 1974 (Whitlam), the Stock Exchange Crash of 1987 then the Savings & Loans fiasco of the late 1980’s/early 1990’s (Hawke) then sub prime lending and the GFC of 2008 (Rudd)
We had the Costello beat up of the IMF Crisis in SE Asia but that IMF intervention did not impact Australia, only the Nations floating their currencies (and banks were left to fail by IMF direction because they had not revalued their securities post the S&L fall out collapsing property prices)
I well recall a certain former pm lamenting (more than once!) “Why is it the bloody Tories are never in government when these crises happen”
The same pm who picked up the abject mess of Fraser (and, to be fair, his dysfunctional treasurer, Howard)
As I have put Shorten and his team will confront the same challenges Hawke and his team addressed from 1983
As with Hawke, Shorten is skilled at walking both sides of the street (Capital and labour)
Has that enormous Muppet Uhlmann called the election yet? Last time he did in the second last week from memory. Reckon this one might be less close but any movement from the Oracle ?
Observer, you have named yourself aptly
@observer, what results will Newscorp be updating?
Observer
Wasn’t in Victoria for 1999, but have got The Age front cover from day after 1996 state election
Kennett takes Coalition past 2000
Kept it ‘just in case’ ! It is a good one for reflecting on after winning any election.
Third friken time in 8 days I have received a pamphlet asking me to vote for Trent Zimmerman. Could North Sydney be up for grabs (highly doubt it… but THREE times?!?)
Has anything changed? This ad is from 1943 Federal election campaign.
For the record, Labor won in a landslide, 58.2% TPP and 49/74 seats.
Observer
I have a theory that when people feel Australia is ‘shaky’ economically, more of them vote or preference Labor. Maybe some feel if things go bad for them personally they will be helped more by a Labor government. The Liberals were very confident in both 1990 and 1993 – in 1993 their ad highlighting high unemployment at 11% with people in the ‘cross-hairs’ probably just scared people.
If there are rough economic seas ahead, far better to have Labor ditching some excess ‘ballast’ overboard by closing these various tax rorts and loopholes.
I suspect Mr Turnbull wants to see a civil war in the Liberal Party with the hardliners defeated, rather than creating a situation in which the hardliners can avoid responsibility for the damage they have done to the party by seeking to blame Turnbull “treachery” for the loss, if they lose. (Of course they’ve tried that line already, in Wentworth, but it was a pretty feeble basis, not coming back to campaign. Deliberate damage would be a quantum jump up from that.)
Pedant
You may be right. His memoirs are apparently due out soon -but now seems unlikely they will be out before the election. I think Dutton, Abbott and Morrison will feature prominently!
The junk mail bin next to the letterboxes in my building is full of UAP pamphlets.
People may have figured out that the UAP is just a vanity project of a rich, egotistical old man.
Depends on what Turnbull hates more.. the party or Abbott.
Steve777
On their website under “Our Prime Ministers” they have pictures of their three great PMs
Joseph Lyons, Billy Hughes and Robert Menzies
They can have Billy Hughes, but I wonder how the Liberals feel about Clive Palmer claiming Robert Menzies as one of his own? Surely this page on their website could be in breach the Electoral Act?
https://www.unitedaustraliaparty.org.au/our-prime-ministers/
They don’t shake the hands of people they don’t like!
Fair enough for all