Three new polls over the last week, from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, have made next to no difference on BludgerTrack’s reading of the two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection. The only change to report is movement from the major parties to the minor parties on the primary vote, with One Nation in particular bouncing back a little after a recent slump. I am not calculating a trend for the United Australia Party at this point – that will only change if I can find the time for it.
With little change in the state breakdowns, the story there continues to be consistent with both sides’ assessment of the situation everywhere except Queensland, where Labor is being credited with what seems an inordinately big swing. It should be noted that BludgerTrack is currently a lot richer in national than state-level data, which should hopefully change reasonably soon with the publication of breakdowns from Newspoll. As ever, it will be interesting to see what these numbers have to say about Queensland.
Newspoll and Ipsos both provided leadership ratings for the week, which caused both leaders to drop slightly on net approval, and resulted in no change whatsoever on preferred prime minister. However, this involved a cancelling out effect of two sets of numbers that were dramatically different from each other, after fairly dramatic bias adjustment measures were applied to Ipsos. So if you look carefully at the leadership ratings trend charts on the BludgerTrack display, the Ipsos results for preferred prime minister and Scott Morrison’s net approval show up as fairly dramatic outliers.
The normal form of Ipsos is to produce more flattering leadership approval numbers than other pollsters, particularly in relation to the Prime Minister. Scott Morrison continued to record a net favourable rating of +3% in the latest poll, but this was seven down on last time, and five worse than his previous low point. There was none of this from Newspoll though, which recorded next to no change. Similarly, it was a case of up from Ipsos and down from Newspoll for Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, with the latter carrying slightly the greater weight.
The full display is available through the link below – and, as ever, don’t miss Seat du jour, today detailing with Corangamite.
zoomster
nath just taking it hard someone like that is not leading the Greens 🙂
Re Phages: I’d never heard of them until I read Greg Bear’s Darwin’s Radio. I’m not at all surprised to see where the tech is heading.
Geetroit
That the relevant Lib offices feel they can not bother to offer an explanation says even more.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/09/pms-office-silent-after-apparent-reference-to-environment-bill-that-doesnt-exist
It must be SO much easier to have over half the media compliant and almost all the rest complicit.
Where would we be without the G?
Here’s the ABC fact checking of last night’s debate.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-08/federal-election-fact-checking-third-leaders-debate/11093862
Credibility gap………….Comment 1 – “Labor retains its modest yet decisive lead…………………”
Comment 2 – “The election is neck-and-neck………………..” Clue about Comment 2 – add a name to RN Breakfast at 6 am. Yep, I and know FC so-say got stuck into the Treasurer……………………
I love voting on polling day.
Unfortunately, this year my favourite Liberal party member will not be handing out HTV cards at our booth. He passed away last year. Fine man.
I have been puzzled about the local West newspaper for the last 2-3 days. Unless it is girding itself up for an all out assault on Labor over the next few days, it has been very subdued in its coverage. While the baby has been front and centre, most of the political news surrounds the local State budget. I notice WB had something to say about the nature of the DT’s coverage today as well.
Anyone seen Melissa? She has been missing for over one month.
” rel=”nofollow”>
Please share as there are grave concerns for her intelligence.
Could someone please go to the Iview website and see if they can bring up the debate. I’ve been trying for several hours and it keeps coming up with an error message.
https://iview.abc.net.au/show/australia-votes-leaders-debate
SporstBet has just reduced Labor’s price to $1.16 which is not far off its previous low of $1.14.
beguiledagain @ #109 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 9:19 am
Works fine for me (NBN FTTP 100/40).
I am sorry to say this but I think your BludgerTrack is a load of BS. You expect us to believe Labor’s primary vote is 36.8% when the the 3 polls you cite have Labor’s primary vote at 33,34 and 36 (all significantly below 36.8) and yet your estimate of the Coalition’s primary vote is 38% when the the 3 polls you cite have the Coalition’s primary vote at 36, 38 and 38 (2 of the 3 polls match this figure). Just not believable. I think of if you eliminate an obvious pro-Labor bias from the pollbludger the 2PP is more like Labor in the range of 50.5 to 51 versus the Coalition in the range of 49 to 49.5.
Tricot
This is another tweet from guy I posted earlier suggesting swing to Labor in WA
Pete EVANS
@911CORLEBRA777
·
5h
There are many reasons for this. Western Australia usually swings to the conservatives, but the infiltration of far right elements into the Liberal Party, & the way they treated Julie Bishop (who is from West Australia) is a big reason
Thanks to BK for the morning wrap up and on the cartoons Rowe was up to his usual high standard with the “rooster” that laid the egg but the highlight for me was the Le Lievre depiction of Murdoch fishing in the dunny for content in his rags.
“Here’s the ABC fact checking of last night’s debate.”
The ABC appears to have ignored Scomo’s outrageous lie about extinction legislation. Some fact checkers.
The Courier Mail reports
“AUSTRALIA’S most marginal seat is on a knife-edge, with the latest polling showing Coalition candidate Phil Thompson could overthrow Labor’s Cathy O’Toole on May 18. ”
From what I can tell the article does not provide any details, so it might just be referring to that old poll from a couple of weeks ago.
Meanwhile my favourite guy
Adam Schiff
@RepAdamSchiff
·
24m
BREAKING: House Intel just subpoenaed DOJ for all counterintelligence and foreign intelligence materials in the probe, the full report, and underlying evidence.
DOJ has responded to our requests with silence and defiance.
Congress needs the material. We will not be obstructed
COYS is the rallying cry for the toothless and unwashed masses of North London.
Those ballot papers chock-full of right-wingers are a reminder of why it was the conservative side of politics that gave us preferential voting.
And on the same theme, does everyone remember Abbott & Co. taunting Labor after 2010 about how they were going to introduce optional-preferential to federal elections? Isn’t it strange how that doesn’t seem like a good idea any more.
From the Guardian:
“”On Tuesday Morrison responded to the report saying: “We already introduced and passed legislation through the Senate actually dealing with that very issue in the last week of the parliament. We’ve been taking action on that.”
But no legislation regarding animal conservation or the environment passed in the final week of parliament.
When asked what the legislation was, the prime minister’s office did not reply. The office of the environment minister, Melissa Price, also did not respond when asked what legislation Morrison was referring to.”
This seems to only be the guardian that is reporting this – meaning the rest of the MSM has missed/ignored it?
Echoes of the past, this day in 1981, tomatoes, eggs thrown at PM:
https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/rendition/nla.news-page13926461.pdf
“Demonstrators and police gather around the Prime Minister’s car as the driver attempts to get it through the front doors of the Macquarie University Union last night. It would not fit.”
“Morning all. I’m still catching up with the day, but I thought some would enjoy this.”
***
That’s evil Google tracking you (I haven’t looked at PB’s code but I’m assuming that’s an ad served by Google Adsense). It knows you’ve been looking at and searching for political content. That Liberal ad would be targeted to you. I’ve seen a bunch of them too, especially from Palmer. Have also seen totally unrelated ads on here, such as ones for the clothing company Fila.
More than happy to have the ad show up on William’s site because he puts so much work into his articles. I disable my adblocker for sites like this. A couple of ads here and there don’t bother me anyway. It’s when an entire website is covered with them and there’s pop-ups and autoplaying videos that it gets really annoying. Sites like that are what adblockers are for.
Vic……………as far as WA is concerned, the treatment of Bishop has not been forgotten by Lib supporters. Whether this will influence their vote is another thing. However, despite her sometimes cattiness and her tags of being worried more about appearance than substance, I think Labor’s assessment that she would have been a tougher nut than Morrison was correct. The fact that not only did she not get support from her interstate colleagues – other than Turnbull I would guess – and no support from her WA ones, suggests this was a very big mistake indeed. She will not forget……..and while I doubt she will bother with some kind of revenge, the local Libs just have to wear it.
I suspect quite a lot of the vote in Curtin will disappear somewhere else as she was a local “gel” and fitted all the stereotypes. Her personal vote was quite large. Having said this, the electorate is made up of extremely well-heeled individuals and the are as rusted on as any die-hard Labor supporter would be. I met her once at some function and I found her cold and distant. Then again, there was no election on.
“You heard it here. Just vote 1 Labor and all your problems will go away”
But remember to number all the other squares – it’s not optional preferential like in the State election. So 1 Labor 2 Greens then donkey vote the LNP and other right wing nutjobs.
“Do phages attack cancer cells? (I don’t even know the right questions to ask.)”
No. They are actually bacteriophages. These are a virus that latches onto a specific site on a specific bacteria, injects its own DNA/RNA and takes over the bacteria’s systems to reproduce itself.
Use of multiple phages in combination to treat infection has been mainly researched in Europe / Russia for many years. I did a unit in the 80’s at uni where we actually collected and cultured bacteriophages of E.coli from a creek in Ellenbrook. My first time using an electron microscope. 🙂
GM phages are an interesting development and personally i think they have potential. Needs ongoing development and lots of test / screening to find the right ones for “common” antibiotic resistant infections. Suspect will be focused on things like staph and tb that are multiple antibiotic resistant.
Bacteria rapidly mutating? To be considered but not as big an issue as you’d think. Its the viruses that change fast, hence new flu every year. 🙂 Cancer treatment?? maybe?? Phages attack bacteria not human cells.
Good to hear more about the big libraries of phages around though. If its developed into a more practical treatment it will be on the back of the biodiversity available.
I get the impression from WB’s comments above, that Labor’s potential vote/seat win/hold may be a bit overstated in Queensland. If this is the case a lot does depend on the outcome in Victoria and the less populated states. To this extent, the LNP could be described as being ‘neck-and-neck’ as Fran Kelly would have it this morning on RN Breakfast.
Just checked out the WA Senate ballot and thankfully between Labor, The Greens, Hemp, Animal Justice and I guess Socialist Alliance, there are far more than 12 candidates that I can vote BTL for without giving a single preference to any of the Libs, Nats, PHONs, UAP and even further to the right ratbag parties.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_of_the_2019_Australian_federal_election#Western_Australia_2
In the HOR (seat of Perth)it’s a bit more difficult with bugger all beyond Labor 1, and Greens 2.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_of_the_2019_Australian_federal_election#Western_Australia
There is a mob on the HOR ballot called the Science Party* which, on the surface at least, sounds appealing, however they seem to be more of a techno-libertarian outfit. Still, some of the policies they support include:
Plus some others that don’t particularly appeal.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_Party_(Australia)
Looks like they’ll probably get my 3rd preference, albeit reluctantly. Apart from that it’s a pretty motley crew of RWNJs that I might just apply the “donkey” principle to.
* Formerly known as the Future Party
Great collection of cartoons BK.
I’m a bit confused about Glen Le Lievre’s effort which seems to show John Howard dressed as Noddy sitting on a toilet cistern fishing in the toilet bowl. What is that referring to?
EDIT: just saw Martini’s comment @9:22. It’s Rupert, not John Howard. Now it makes sense.
“So 1 Labor 2 Greens…”
That should be the other way round 😛
But we’ll take it anyway! 1 Greens would be better but if you must give Labor your first preference then we’ll be thankful for your second. 🙂
You had one responsibility:
https://twitter.com/newscomauHQ/status/1126268019754225665
That’s not what I thought I heard on the 3aw news this morning. Either this comment was made before the end of the game or I just wasn’t listening properly. As I heard it, the other side scored the winner deep into injury time.
If the coalition are to have any chance, they will have to win herbert.
It could happen. Qld might be a bit of a bummer imo unfortunately.
I am hoping the alp will still gain 1 or 2 up there
Yes, a 2PP between 52%-53% for the ALP is a very reasonable prediction. What’s much more difficult to predict is how many seats that 2PP will translate into. My impression is that the ALP win in terms of seats is going to be far more substantial than a 52-53% 2PP may suggest assuming a constant swing across the board. This election will be a seat-by-seat multi-contest.
@Steve777….it was Murdoch…fishing for stories…..lol
I think Howard is Murdoch
Steve777, I took it as Rupert.
zenith @ #117 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 7:27 am
The Cockney Collingwood? 😆
Tricot
Julie Bishop should be pissed off with the way she was treated by her own party. She was one of their most hard working and successful campaigners
zoomster
says:
Hard to work out why someone who says they’re Green would dislike him.
______________________________________
Probably because of all the millions who died in his wars of aggression. Next we’ll be hearing how Hitler was kind to children and dogs, passed laws against smoking, sent working class families on holidays, gave them cars and encouraged physical fitness.
“Echoes of the past, this day in 1981, tomatoes, eggs thrown at PM:
https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/rendition/nla.news-page13926461.pdf” – love the real estate add showing Canberra house prices circa $65K !
Good morning all and thanks again BK for the Dawn Patrol.
Thanks also to the contributors to last nights commentary.
Douglas and Milko – My wife Marie was a very forgiving woman. When eventually I got her interested (courtesy of audio books/talking books) equally in high quality novels and science such as the big bang theory (not the TV on joke series) – the expanding universe etc – she was thrilled (thrilled I tell you with great confidence). She maintained her Roman Catholic beliefs until the end even though she knew quite well they made no sense. Please carry on being a good girl.
Politics today – plenty that makes no sense. Get a load of this lot of genuine &*&*%&%# from that bastion of tihs “The Daily Telegraph”.
Au revoir mes amis. 😎☮ ☕
I’m going 54-46 2PP on the election (rounded up)
This thing is going to break hard
Thanks imacca. A new pin for the radar.
Melissa price not completely invisible.
I am holidaying ion WA’s Midwest coast and last night among the TV ads for farm machinery, chemicals, tow truck operators etc were a few urging a vote for Melissa.
Ads looked like her efforts as a Minister. Very bad.
Sacked. 😆
”
Victoria says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 8:24 am
Morning all
zoidlord
David Elliott actually posted that before Shorten did his response to the article in the DT. I reckon he may have regretted posting those comments after all.
”
Victoria
This is the same David Elliott who outed the ABC Journalist in NSW State parliament against Luke Foley.
If there is a final 2pp to ALP of 52.0%, this equates to a national swing of 2.4%.
Given the nature of current political affairs and the relative positions on policies, the swing will be smaller (even negative in some areas) in regional and rural areas, and larger in urban areas, with the largest swings possibly in the inner-city affluent seats.
How many seats this finally translates into, the answer is blowing in the wind.
Ante Meridian @ 9.29am
Every party is hypocritical about optional preferential voting, favouring it when it thinks it will be to its own advantage, opposing it otherwise. A bill for optional preferential voting (among other things) was one of the legislative triggers for the 1975 double dissolution following The Dismissal. The ALP lost interest when they started to need green preferences. And the Queensland Labor Government railroaded the abolition of OPV through the Parliament with almost no discussion. (That’s the same Labor Party, by the which, which squealed like a herd of stuck pigs when the entirely defensible Senate reforms were put through in 2016 after LITERALLY YEARS of discussion.)
Canberra Houses in 1981 at low prices probably had a fair bit of asbestos in walls, eaves and bathroom/laundry and some contribution by Mr Fluffy.
BK thanks for that link to the factcheck on last night’s debate. As has become the norm, only one major party leader is telling the truth in this campaign, the one not wearing a baseball cap. How many people really believe ScumMo on the economy or climate change? The evidence in front of their own eyes must tell them he is lying.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-08/federal-election-fact-checking-third-leaders-debate/11093862
In the Liberal party if you tell a lie loud enough, long enough and often enough, they make you leader.