The Australian has published what can doubtless be regarded as the most reliable – or at any rate, least unreliable – seat polls to emerge from the campaign so far, from four well-chosen electorates. These are automated phone polls conducted on Saturday and have modest samples, from 509 to 618, although they seem to fit very well with where the major parties believe things to stand. Among other things, this means each looks to be going down to the wire. Perhaps a little more surprisingly, they find Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party doing at least as well as the Palmer United Party did in 2013.
Deakin (Victoria, Liberal 6.4%): The Liberals are credited with a two-party lead of 51-49 in this eastern Melbourne seat, consistent with the general impression of a big swing to Labor in Victoria – though perhaps not quite enough to take out this particular seat, which is held by arch-conservative Michael Sukkar. The primary votes are Liberal 46%, compared with 50.3% in 2016; Labor 39%, compared with 30.1%; Greens 8%, compared with 11.3%; and 5% for the United Australia Party. The numbers for comparison here are as adjusted for the redistribution, which boosted the Liberal margin from 5.7% to 6.4%. The sample here was 535.
Pearce (WA, Liberal 3.6%): A dead heat on two-party preferred in Christian Porter’s seat on Perth’s northern fringes, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 8% (11%), United Australia Party 8% and One Nation 6%. Sample: 509.
Herbert (Queensland, Labor 0.0%): The Coalition has high hopes invested in recovering this Townsville-based seat from Labor’s Cathy O’Toole due to the Adani controversy, but the poll’s two party preferred reading finds nothing to separate the two parties on the primary vote, in a seat Labor won by 37 votes in 2016. Presumably these polls use respondent-allocated preferences, as 2016 preference flows suggest this is more like 51-49 to Labor: their primary vote is only down from 30.5% to 29%, while the Liberal National Party is down from 35.5% to 31.1%. The United Australia Party does particularly well here, despite Palmer himself having baulked at his earlier plan to contest the seat. It records 14% of the vote, resulting in One Nation fading from 13.5% to 9%, although Katter’s Australian Party are up from 6.9% to 10%. The Greens are at 5%, down from 6.3%. Sample: 529.
Lindsay (NSW, Labor 1.1%): Another status quo result in a seat the Liberals are talking up as a gain from Labor, who are credited with a 51-49 lead. In this case, previous election preferences would probably have produced a stronger result for the Liberals, who are up from 39.3% to 41% on the primary vote with Labor down from 41.1% to 40%. The Greens are little changed on 4%, compared with 3.6% last time, and the United Australia Party are on 7%. Sample: 618.
It has been said around the place that Essential Research was not letting Easter deter it from following its fortnightly polling schedule over the weekend, but it may be causing them to delay its release by a day, because there’s nothing about it on The Guardian’s site.
Hell, all Labor really need to do is put some of Turnbull’s recent statements on TV and radio:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/21/a-right-wing-minority-malcolm-turnbull-re-enters-the-fray-with-neg-spray
From the horses mouth, he was held hostage by a right wing minority, and thanks to Morrison electricity prices are higher than they should be.
EGW @ #802 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:09 pm
After considerable investigation, including technical aspects of their back-end technology, I went with Aussie Broadband. A bit more expensive than some others but with an all-Australian operation including support staff.
Been very happy with speed and stability (a few weeks in now)
Patrick Bateman @ #840 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:29 pm
Really?
Let me quote you:
I find EGW’s humility quite moving.
EGW, as awful as I know it will be, spend a week sampling commercial media – the real world – perhaps you’ll understand better what some of us are talking about.
Steve: Sohar You’ve woken FakeNewsWayne# up now !!
Sorry, Steve.
Go back to sleep please, Wayne.
jenauthor, if you are referring to climate change then it is not a left wing position, it is a reality-based position. It’s also a major concern for voters of every stripe (other than, presumably, PHON morons):
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/02/climate-change-a-burning-issue-again-in-voters-minds
If you mean the fracking stuff, I don’t see how the ‘safe’ policy position is a radical new policy to frack the living shit out of the NT at a moment when voters are very concerned about climate change.
I know early voting starts on Monday, but with disruptions of Easter and ANZAC Day, most people I’m talking to who aren’t engaged in this all the time, aren’t really invested yet.
Tasmanian environment not so pristine
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-23/tasmanian-world-heritage-lakes-contaminated-heavy-metals-study/10929560
A recent study has shown some lakes in the protected Wilderness World Heritage Area have heavy metal contamination levels among the highest ever recorded.
“I find these findings to be quite disturbing and something that I really think the people of Tasmania need to know about,” Simon Haberle, an environmental scientist from the Australian National University (ANU) who helped carry out the research, said.
:::
We’ve been able to model the distribution of the metals and the model tells us that the heavy metals come from mining ” Professor Haberle said.
:::
In light of climate change causing more severe temperatures, we’re seeing atmosphere temperatures changing and that affects the way these chemicals move in the environment as well.”
———–
ABC TV 7.30 program: https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/some-of-tasmania’s-lakes-have-highest-levels-of/11040738
EGW, you’re misreading me. “Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison” refers to the sequence of PMs, not to the current members of the government. I.e., this is the sequence so far, who knows who you will get next…
Um, no EGW, that’s not what PB was saying. You’ve missed his point.
Pegasus @ #843 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:31 pm
Jennifer Yang is the Labor candidate people will vote for.
Gladys Liu is the Lib candidate that people will vote for but she thinks Morrison adds to her appeal. I think she is wrong and it will harm her.
ajm @ #852 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:37 pm
Thanks for that. I think you or others have mentioned them before.
EGW
RU bemused in another guise?
mundo @ #854 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:37 pm
I see more than enough already. No thanks.
The teachers and others have been running some anti-Lib advertising and this helps.
I would prefer to see the strongly negative stuff done by such organisations rather than Labor.
My personal preference for attack advertising is to make fun of an opponent. Get the voters laughing at them.
Steve Davis
No u did
By saying if the coalition got to $2.20
U would be worried that to me is you admitting that our great LNP will win May 18 election
EGW
Amusing to drive past a Michael Sukkar billboard in Deakin – he hasn’t just dumped Morrison, he’s dumped the Liberal Party branding entirely. Maybe he wants to run as an independent?
Patrick, I am talking overall. Just because sensible, educated people understand the ramifications of climate change and such … the bulk of the fucking population do not!
What I am saying is: political parties cannot afford to scare the horses too much.
Labor has laid it on the line with franking/CGT/Neg Gearing and the higher than Coalition renewable target.
Personally, I’d really like much bigger steps to be taken in climate and mining and the reef and so on.
BUT I know that I am quite left of centre. The population is a bell curve, so to speak, in terms of conservative/progressive. We can either get Labor over the line and open up the possibility of doing a lot more …. or we can dig our heels in, expect radical change and watch the election go back to the conservatives because the 50% that are too self-serving/greedy/ill-informed or just plain don’t care, to stay with what they know, even if it is bad. THey’e the ones who need convincing!!!
Patrick Bateman @ #859 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:41 pm
Hmmmm
Seems pretty clear to me. “…re-elect them…”
It is way too early to go all out on attack ads. Usually ads will pick up days before prepoll opens and will increase steadily. Last week is very important, you don’t want to burn all your cash. In Victorian election Labor went really hard on the last few days.
Watching politics for a while now and Liberals almost always outdo Labor on corfulates and billboards. It is not indicative of how the campaigns are going. Labor also doesn’t need it that much because people vote for the party.
I think Labor campaign is going fairly well. Wide variety of policies are out there that appeal to a wide variety of people. Quite a few Facebook sponsored posts, some in Chinese.
One mistake parties do is they make one particular topic the centre of attention and only campaign on that like Vic Libs with crime and NSW Labor with stadiums. Federal ALP doing the right thing by campaigning on multiple issues.
Of course Green voters will want Labor to talk non stop about environment but that’s not how you win elections.
EGW, if you’re in one of the areas they cover then I would suggest skipping the NBN entirely and going with Uniti Wireless – we get better than NBN speeds with no physical connection to anything and at better prices.
EGW, “them” clearly meaning “the LNP” in context.
Watergate plot thickens with more info from Ms Veruca. This is starting to smell real bad…..
https://twitter.com/msveruca/status/1120634640807497728?s=21
Presumably no Newspoll then.
I’d like a labor attack ad listing all the dodgy wastes of taxpayer money on this mob’s watch. Would be hefty. Might need a two minute spot to let it all scroll through.
They also shouldn’t be afraid to call the other mob corrupt. It’s plainly what they are.
Have any of yous watched Your Money TV Network overnight ?
They have the Fox Business Network Showing from USA between 10:30 pm to 6:00 am
And if you want to see unbalanced Coverage of Politics this must be it
I do not mind Trump but they talk on the Show as if they are having Sex with Him and how good he is
I would prefer Trump to Clinton but this show makes me sick on how good he is for the Country
I do not have Cable so do not Know how Cable shows in Australia are Bolt comes to mind close to Fox well he used to be pro Liberal not sure now
The Fox Network does not even try to be balanced
A bit like this Blog which is Stacked like a Labor Branch
I think the ABC and free network news is pretty balanced and by FOX standards very well balanced
Rocket Rocket @ #866 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:48 pm
I have been to one Deakin campaign event and will go to more depending on timing.
I would also like to do a bit in Menzies for Stella Yee. Would be nice to see Andrews dumped.
I think Morrison is a negative for them and will become more so.
If his wacky religion gets more exposure, and Labor can’t do that, he will be a big negative.
In life we all know people who look good and sound good, but prove to be without substance.
Re Bill Shorten and his perceived ordinary personality. Previous labor leaders, John Curtin, Ben Chifley, Dr HV Evatt or Arthur Calwell never had outstanding personalities, but they had successful political careers. For me, the outstanding Labor political personality was Labor PM Whitlam, he unlike a lot of politicians not only looked and sounded good he was also gifted with an outstanding intellect. Bob Hawke was another who not only looked and sounded good. Add Paul Keating to that list. The Liberal John Howard was a successful and wily politician who certainly wasn’t elected for his personality. Without doubt the outstanding Liberal PM R G Menzies looked good , sounded good and with his high intellect was an outstanding leader. Present day Scott Morrison looks good and sounds good but is not necessarily likeable. As with Bill Shorten Scott Morrison is not yet fully tested. Without doubt personality and looks, as in everyday life are also important in politics. More importantly, the ability to be sincere, have intelligence and empathy, know what you are talking about, always answering the hard questions, are most important qualities in politicians.
jenauthor – I just don’t agree that climate change is a ‘left’ issue, and I suspect that if Labor was brave enough to try a much stronger line on it that it would be a big vote winner. A lot of people are getting scared, and not just left wing Gardening Australia types. 47 degree days in Adelaide are hard to ignore. Even the usually anti-anything-Green agricultural types I know are getting very, very anxious about it.
Plus there’s a great narrative to tie together… bushfires, drought, extreme temperatures, and instead of taking action what have the Libs done? Water buybacks for their mates, big coal mines for their mates and war on renewables (insert clip of them denigrating South Australia for moving to renewables). Vote for the party who will work to protect your kids and grandkids, we can’t afford three more years of inaction, etc.
Only in Australia is climate change perceived as a ‘fringe’ issue.
https://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-germany-coal-power-20190126-story.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/17/uk-to-review-climate-target-raising-hopes-of-a-zero-emissions-pledge
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-carbon-japan/japans-2017-18-co2-emissions-drop-to-8-year-low-idUSKCN1RS05Q
Gorks @ #869 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:49 pm
Early voting starts on 29th April!
So attack ads need to start before then or a lot of voters will miss them before voting.
And the Greens want to narrow the campaign more than just to the environment. They want all the focus on ONE coal mine.
My point above is why the ALP/Green feud is as useful as bottle tops on cat’s tails.
The ENEMY is the conservatives. They’re the ones who are fucking the planet and stealing every asset that isn’t nailed down. They’re the ones who are making life a misery for anyone not of their “economic class”.
And meanwhile – we have ongoing anti-Bill, anti-Labor petty arguments on individual pet policy areas when the REAL need is to change the fucking govt to one that has a hope of taking the country in the right direction.
Jeebus but it freakin’ gives me the craps reading all the petty posts on twitter and, at times, here haggling over what ultimately amounts to the minutiae.
Change the govt first OTHERWISE NOTHING YOU WANT IS GOING TO HAPPEN!!
Climbing off my soapbox now.
Rocket Rocket,
They’re not small billboards that Mr Sukkar does…
There’s not as many of his mug on peoples front yards though this time around…
My favourite piece of advertising material is his latest report to the voters with all of the people who are giving him references. Basically, they fall in 3 categories: Church people, Local Football/Netball club presidents who have received a bucketload of pork or people who live well outside the electorate (Susan Alberti and a dude who runs a fathers group from the Sunshine Coast). I too will be giving him a glowing reference for the standard rate of $1.5million to my favourite club…
Patrick Bateman @ #870 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:50 pm
Thanks for the tip. I will have a look.
But wireless is an unbounded media and is shared. It may degrade as more users jump onto it.
I hope Labor will at least hammer the Libs with the $450M to their mates at the Great Barrier Reef Foundation to do… stuff. Doesn’t get much more obviously corrupt than that.
Patrick you nailed it (and, I think contradicted yourself) – only in Australia is CC a fringe issue!
I do not disagree with you on Climate Change. To me it is the singularly most important policy area we need, as a country to really address.
BUT as I said above – all the most noble and important arguments will mean nothing if we cannot change the government – and that means everyone even slightly left of centre, right out to the extreme left need to work for that as a first step because if we can’t achieve that, then everything else is meaningless.
Patrick, no uniti wireless coverage yet but they say they may have other solutions.
Another company came round a while ago and offered the same type of connection.
I have been hoping after a change of Govt we might get fibre, at least to the kerb.
jenauthor, other than here, where is anyone green/Green seriously attacking Shorten? It’s all been about watergate vs “death taxes” this week.
You can’t seriously expect people to applaud Labor announcing a crapload of new fracking today, surely? In fact, the negative reaction from some quarters is probably part of the Labor strategy there, to show they are not in bed with the dreaded Greens.
jenauthor (we’re posting out of sequence)
I don’t think I contradicted myself – I agree it’s *seen* as a fringe issue by some parts of the media and political brains trusts, but I believe it has well and truly shifted to being a mainstream issue here among voters, and I wish Labor had the guts to grab it and run – it belongs to them as a policy area, as the only one of the two majors to ever give a shit about the environment. It’s also the most obvious area in which the Libs are just straight up bad for the country IMHO.
I mean, look at the crap the Libs were spouting about electric cars the other day. That KK presser was golden – they just need to keep doing that. Maybe add that Toyota themselves are taking your previous Hilux and making it electric by the mid 2020s anyway!
What do you make of the fracking announcement today? Are we supposed to see it with a wink, wink, nudge, nudge? Just vote us in and we won’t actually do this, this is for the rubes up north?
EGW
There seems to be a strongly focussed campaign against one coal mine in Kooyong and Higgins. I think there was a similar intensely focussed campaign about one coal mine during the Batman (now Cooper) by-election, and Ged Kearney got elected with a swing to Labor – among other things she seemed very empathetic to the concerns of the voters in the electorate. Who knew?
EGW, that’s a shame, Uniti are a good company in my experience of them.
NBN is also subject to congestion depending on which half-arsed version of Malcolm’s broken network you are getting. Such a shame.
Beth
Barnaby will be on the beef burgers checkout with an option for the lot. Does fish badly.
Barnaby did seem a bit flakey on the radiogram the other night but put it down to the iron roof/weatherboard/sleepout effect and a guzzle or two behind the chook shed.
If only we had more like him.
Pegasus says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 9:31 pm
Labor voters are able to tell the difference, but to the Right, all Asians look the same.
Out comes the Labor toerag
Hardly worth responding to I’d say Patrick
Only in the fetid auspol world of Labor/Lib love ins, can the end of the ecological systems upon which life survives on planet earth be regarded as inconsequential, insignificant or whatever ‘extremist’ bullshit label they have most recently come up with.
Any ignorance in the Aust population has been one that has been fed and fostered by particular interests and vested interests over recent decades, most of whom are the source of major donations to the Lab/Lib duopoly. It’s almost like the duopoly are happy to see most Australians completely cynical and couldn’t give a shit about politics.
Nevertheless I think there’s more hope and optimism to be found in those who are aware and being active.
To any rational informed person, it is clearly bullshit to believe that events and circumstances heading our way, the whole world’s way, will be a very costly, ecologically, economically, socially
That some really expend their human energy trolling someone else’s blog 24/7, just to keep making the same puerile stupid bullshit statements. Who knew the infantile thoughts that capture some human mind and spirit?
A Barnaby Burger with plenty of sauce sounds attractive.
Rocket Rocket @ #887 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 10:07 pm
Yeah, I would prefer the Adani mine didn’t go ahead, but even if it does, it will largely displace output from other mines.
Adani, the company, is actually undertaking a number of solar projects in Australia so I would prefer to see it encouraged to head in that direction rather than merely be demonised.
I didn’t see anything about fracking today. But again, we need to change govt first and then tackle those issues. Attacking the opposition before they get into govt does not have any benefit to that issue – because sure as hell the Libs will be manning the bulldozers to begin work on those mines the instant the election is over.
The problem with ALP oppositions thinking that they have to offer cautious, unthreatening policies on climate change is that we end up with ALP governments that only feel able to offer cautious, unthreatening policies when, as Greta Thurnberg says, we should be acting like the house is on fire, because it is.
To any rational informed person, it is clearly bullshit to believe that events and circumstances heading our way, the whole world’s way, will NOT be a very costly, ecologically, economically, socially
Quoll
Yep. These people are going to find out pretty soon that Extinction Rebellion blocking a few London buses is just the tip of the iceberg. People are getting angry and scared. Politicians need to either listen, or watch as people go around them.
Barney in Da Lat @ #890 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 10:11 pm
Easy to pick the difference, Jennifer Yang has a warm smile, Gladys Liu more of a snarl.
Sometimes people need to accept that what they see as the most important issue is not that important for a lot of other people.
QLD government was supposed to lose the election over Adani, didn’t happen.
Batman was supposed to turn Green over Adani, didn’t happen.
I like the Labor attack ad I saw on Adelaide telebision tonight. It shows Corman responding to it being put to him that wages aren’t growing by saying it is a deliberate design feature of the economy.