The Australian has published what can doubtless be regarded as the most reliable – or at any rate, least unreliable – seat polls to emerge from the campaign so far, from four well-chosen electorates. These are automated phone polls conducted on Saturday and have modest samples, from 509 to 618, although they seem to fit very well with where the major parties believe things to stand. Among other things, this means each looks to be going down to the wire. Perhaps a little more surprisingly, they find Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party doing at least as well as the Palmer United Party did in 2013.
Deakin (Victoria, Liberal 6.4%): The Liberals are credited with a two-party lead of 51-49 in this eastern Melbourne seat, consistent with the general impression of a big swing to Labor in Victoria – though perhaps not quite enough to take out this particular seat, which is held by arch-conservative Michael Sukkar. The primary votes are Liberal 46%, compared with 50.3% in 2016; Labor 39%, compared with 30.1%; Greens 8%, compared with 11.3%; and 5% for the United Australia Party. The numbers for comparison here are as adjusted for the redistribution, which boosted the Liberal margin from 5.7% to 6.4%. The sample here was 535.
Pearce (WA, Liberal 3.6%): A dead heat on two-party preferred in Christian Porter’s seat on Perth’s northern fringes, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 8% (11%), United Australia Party 8% and One Nation 6%. Sample: 509.
Herbert (Queensland, Labor 0.0%): The Coalition has high hopes invested in recovering this Townsville-based seat from Labor’s Cathy O’Toole due to the Adani controversy, but the poll’s two party preferred reading finds nothing to separate the two parties on the primary vote, in a seat Labor won by 37 votes in 2016. Presumably these polls use respondent-allocated preferences, as 2016 preference flows suggest this is more like 51-49 to Labor: their primary vote is only down from 30.5% to 29%, while the Liberal National Party is down from 35.5% to 31.1%. The United Australia Party does particularly well here, despite Palmer himself having baulked at his earlier plan to contest the seat. It records 14% of the vote, resulting in One Nation fading from 13.5% to 9%, although Katter’s Australian Party are up from 6.9% to 10%. The Greens are at 5%, down from 6.3%. Sample: 529.
Lindsay (NSW, Labor 1.1%): Another status quo result in a seat the Liberals are talking up as a gain from Labor, who are credited with a 51-49 lead. In this case, previous election preferences would probably have produced a stronger result for the Liberals, who are up from 39.3% to 41% on the primary vote with Labor down from 41.1% to 40%. The Greens are little changed on 4%, compared with 3.6% last time, and the United Australia Party are on 7%. Sample: 618.
It has been said around the place that Essential Research was not letting Easter deter it from following its fortnightly polling schedule over the weekend, but it may be causing them to delay its release by a day, because there’s nothing about it on The Guardian’s site.
And to any rational informed person Labor is nothing like the liberals.
Such same-same nonsense is laziness.
A-FUCKING-MEN! Jenauthor.
The Labor/Green wars that eat up so much time here are not representative of the discourse in the mainstream.
If you think Labor are the same as the Libs, is wilful ignorance and I you think the Greens are the same as the Liberals? Come on.
Thanks be to God for that.
“even if it does, it will largely displace output from other mines.”
Without looking it up, from memory the AI modelling was that about 75% of the output would be displacement and about 25% additional output. That is still a substantial rise. And of course there are all the other deposits in Gallilee. If Adani isn’t stopped, there will be no stopping them.
Quoll @ #891 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 10:11 pm
Have I upset you Quoll?
Patrick and I have our differences, but remain civil in our exchanges.
Give it a try.
Gorks
The problem is that climate change IS the biggest issue, regardless of what people ‘see’.
It’s scary and depressing to have an election fought on the fictional basis that it is not.
It amusing to see neighbouring electorates in Deakin and Chisholm have no liberal branding in one and branding in the other.
Faith leaders unite for symbolic coal mining funeral
https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/some-of-tasmania’s-lakes-have-highest-levels-of/11040738
RELIGIOUS leaders have told key Labor MPs that they are prepared to blockade Adani’s Carmichael coal project and, if need be, face arrest to stop the mine from going ahead.
The announcement came at two interfaith ‘Funeral for Coal’ vigils outside the offices of opposition leader Bill Shorten and Labor environment spokesman Tony Burke.
The faith leaders said they were taking the stand because of the key role that coal has in causing climate change, pressing the ALP because of their failure to oppose Adani’s project
::::
As well as Rabbi Keren-Black, those willing to face arrest included a Baptist pastor, four ordained Buddhists, an Anglican priest, a Uniting Church minister and a Sister of Mercy, as well as dozens of regular followers from different faith traditions.
The vigils had been organised by the multi-faith grassroots organisation, the Australian Religious Response to Climate Change.
In the last week, similar events were held by Father Rod Bower on the NSW Central Coast, and outside the office of opposition treasurer Chris Bowen in Western Sydney.
Don
I believe you’re on to something, perhaps for different reasons than those you’ve expressed. Something definitely in the water and a Science teacher would avoid any possibly unknown contagion and tend toward caution as a matter of good practice.
If l were to ask a question it would be plaited around the possibilty of the great white pork barrel being given his marching orders by the fair and reasonable voters of the badly named New England.
An answer probably is as much chance as it actually happening.
Gorks @ #899 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 10:15 pm
Wise words Gorks.
The other thing is that it is much easier to get people to vote AGAINST something they don’t like than it is to get them to overlook any such negatives and vote FOR something they agree with.
This has long been recognised, at least as far back as Machiavelli.
jenauthor
https://www.katherinetimes.com.au/story/6085299/labor-wants-to-fast-track-nt-fracking-too/
Hard not to ‘same same’ sometimes, when the Libs say they are going to frack the place up and so Labor instantly jumps in behind them to do the same thing. Also irreconcilable with taking climate change seriously.
Quoll – the answer seems fairly simple – get the population more aware of the issues and more support for Greens and the results are likely to follow. As an environmentally active person I’ve been surprised at the Greens general support for high and even higher levels of population growth, mostly via immigration – hard to see the rationale or the reason for changing what I understood were policies some years ago.
Weird bug (iphone). PB is suggesting that I might like to edit Goll’s last post, rather than my own last one. (Of course I can’t)
Kia Ora station QLD , it seems it’s levies are still intact despite sale of its flood waters rights.
https://publish.twitter.com/?query=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FGergyl%2Fstatus%2F1120436743130505218&widget=Tweet
Here is link to the station on Google maps.
Dropped pin
Near St George QLD 4487
https://goo.gl/maps/kKBgCNciTaHVv4My9
This has a long way to play yet… & will destroy the Country Party
Alpha Zero @ #906 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 10:18 pm
Sukkar supported Dutton.
Gladys seems to see her fortune tied to Morrison.
J341983 @ #956 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 7:39 pm
I’m finding the opposite. Tonight I had dinner and went to a talk with friends, the talk being about community connectedness and community development. A couple of friends have already said they know who they are voting for, one friend is voting Labor for the first time in her life. The apolitical talk turned to the water buybacks issue and govt transparency and the audience all booed or groaned when the federal govt was mentioned.
Martin B,
Noticed the edit and remove options on several posts tonight that were not mine (obviously as I haven’t posted before). Thought it odd but I’m on Chrome on Windows.
Obviously anything ALP do will be better than LNP.
Also obvious that not all ALP governments are the same, and not everything ALP governments do is amazing.
Hence the political differences. It is true that we need to have an ALP government. It is also true that it is not enough to *just* have an ALP government – we need one that is prepared to take strong action.
Cory dumped the Liberal branding well before he jumped ship.
Maybe all this alternate branding is an indication of how the Party will split after the election if they lose. 🙂
Martin B @ #911 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 10:20 pm
It does that on occasion. Just a UI glitch as you can’t actually edit the post.
I saw the presser today about the pipelines but knew nothing about the fracking – state govt projects in NT I assume? I don’t know enough about it to have an informed opinion.
Martin B
The ability to edit random posts presents itself randomly to me and has been the case for quite a long time (i use a laptop).
Jenauthor @9:58:
“Change the govt first OTHERWISE NOTHING YOU WANT IS GOING TO HAPPEN!!”
A succinct summary.
One could add that lots if stuff you DON’T want is going TO happen. And that next time around (starting with changing the Government) we’ll be further behind and the Government likely more entrenched.
And how laughable that the govt’s solution to ending #watergate blew up in their faces. It is typical of the way this govt has mishandled just about everything..
a r
Thanks for clarification.
jenauthor @ #920 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 10:25 pm
I glanced at it and didn’t pick up that it involved fracking.
That makes a world of difference.
Ok – I’ve not seen it before (but then I don’t hang around like I once did).
Spence
The Barnaby burger often comes with plenty of sauce and that may well be to the detriment of the subtlety of the desired delicate aromas and pleasent soothing after taste.
A giddy bucolic drop at best, better suited to the saleyard forum than the Senate. Rather like a spanish onion adorning a souffle at a debutant ball.
EGW & Jen,
That was my thought too, nothing I’ve seen mentioned the f word.
RR
One of our children tells that there is Billboard on Canterbury Road linking Shorten to the so called East-West link under Fitzroy (so competing with City bound traffic on the Eastern) and referring to the cost of terminating that project as promised at the 2014 State election – and due to the provisions in the previously unknown side letters so a Liberal booby trap
That project has not delivered the toxic Libs success at now successive State elections – indeed delivering a thumping at the 2018 election
But that is their Billboard I am informed
Their strength in the East is the “God made the world” demographic and the positions their God bothering leads them to
They have the right to their opinions of course, but not to force those opinions and their impact on society upon the rest of us – such as in regards climate, same sex marriage, abortion and the right to end your life in certain circumstances
I understand the current Member for Deakin, the treasurer and Deputy Liberal Leader to Dutton, is of that demographic hence his objection to the progressive Turnbull and the plotting
Patrick Bateman @ #910 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 10:20 pm
Totally right Patrick, I know the Labs here lose their minds over it, but the fact is that on many of the most significant issues, Lab and Lib really are in lock step and frankly it looks like it due to Labor being gutless wonder and scared of the LNP. Particularly in anything related to climate matters.
Cheers
“ .As well as Rabbi Keren-Black, those willing to face arrest included a Baptist pastor, four ordained Buddhists, an Anglican priest, a Uniting Church minister and a Sister of Mercy, as well as dozens of regular followers from different faith traditions.”
For some reason we are yet to hear calls for those organisations to lose their tax exempt status…
I wonder whether Morrison’s Pentecostal mates will be up there chaining themselves to bulldozers?
Labor cannot take people with them on better CC outcomes, for instance, if they are in opposition.
PMs can lead. Bill needs to gain the respect of the naysayers before he can do what some here want.
It comes back to the ‘perfect being the enemy of the good’ cliche. In this case it is very true.
So long as the knuckle draggers are in power (even not in the leadership team) we are all stymied. There will be no forward momentum.
Shorten might be able to achieve the lasting change that Gillard couldn’t because of the party disunity. If we can have 3 years of strong stable govt that heads in a progressive direction, then big changes can be achieved.
Look at all the economic gains that happened under Hawke Keating. For the most part it was stable and land rights/economic change benefitted Aust for many years.
Howard had fairly stable govt but he took australia in the wrong direction, and Costello put so many land mines in the country’s finances we are reaping the reward of those now.
So:
Don’t scare the horses; gradual but accelerating, change in the first 3 years. – meaningful and cemented into the fabric of govt; once that is achieved more rapid acceleration of those meaningful changes.
ICAC; Climate Change; Infrastructure; narrowing of the wealth difference; services regained; yes pensions and newstart and all those payments that keep the less fortunate from the breadline; NDIS; NBN … all will benefit. But only if we can kick this grasping mob of users off the govt benches. And if some of the Neanderthals (not trying to offend any Neanderthals when I say this) like Abbott and Sukkar and Dutton and the rest …. get booted altogether, the country will be even better off!
The corollary will be the regaining of trust in govt and public institutions, and an increase in general stability all around.
The Mighty ALP will trump it in!
The Libnats will win 14 seats at the election. Gs Adam Bandt will join them to offer a quorum making 15 subfactions.
John Setka will be GG and Little Johnny Howard will be dragged off to the Hague in shackles.
Melissa Price will geta part time job at Go-Lo in Townsville.
Penny Wong will be the new Jesus,
Hail hail Bill Shorten.
Spence @ #911 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 10:20 pm
Hi Spence,
This population thing seems concocted to me, and particularly a line that SusAus has been using.
Never heard a Greens want big Aust population, so seems like a bogus bullshit debate to me.
Climate and ecological issues are kind of global, and it is not purely numbers but also how heavily people live on the environment
Aside from war and pestilence, educating women appears to be the only intervention that appears to actually have a long temr effect on procreation and population.
Greens are campaigning for free education for all to university level. Which is probably the most effective population policy aside from going to war or fostering an epidemic, or drawing lots for who should be killed first.
Really seems a bogus argument to me that has recently been raised, with no real basis I’ve ever seen.
“That was my thought too, nothing I’ve seen mentioned the f word.”
All the links i have provided today mention fracking.
Quoll
FWIW I absolutely reject the suggestion that Labor are the same as the Libs on most issues, and to be fair Labor did actually put in place the ETS. But they are complicit in the water situation and they have been far too weak on climate change this campaign so far. They also need to whip the Queensland unions into submission about coal mining. It’s dying, it will soon be dead, everyone needs to get with the program.
Coming from SA I also have a lot of admiration for the work our Labor govt did to push renewables. But we need more, and we need it nationally, and we need it about 10 years ago.
There is no comparison between the parties on tax, workplace rights, health, education, etc etc etc though. Unfortunately those will be minor issues if it starts routinely hitting 50C in summer and everything is on fire.
Hopefully he goes back to wherever he’s been the last however many years.
jenauthor, you somehow left “destroying the poisonous influence of News Corp” off your list. To me that is right up the top of the list (after climate change) because it is an existential threat to our democracy.
Well the roster for the City Pre-poll Centre, Canberra came out tonight and I have got myself a few spots so am looking forward to donning my red shirt and helping Ms Gallagher in her quest as well as Ms Payne, Mr Smith and Mr Leigh.
Jen Author the Lib-Lab same-same thing isn’t just laziness.
For some (especially journalists) its cowardice. Its avoiding the accusation of “unbalance” when in fact Labor’s policies are better. For some (yes, I’m talking about certain posters here) its a wilful act designed to benefit the conservatives – because they are the ones that benefit from the distraction.
@HaveAchat
Good on you. I signed up to a few days of prepoll in my seat as well.
Observer
I will try and find that “Bill”board tomorrow.
I will probably have better luck than finding Sukkar – sightings are as rare as a thylacine.
I feel Deakin is fairly different socio-demographically to Aston – and am very hopeful Shireen Morris will win.
jenauthor @ #934 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 10:39 pm
Hi Jen,
Sorry but that seems to be a lot of the usual rubbish from Labor, just trust us, yet it’s just a gutless getout of jail clause to say after the election that sorry we didn’t promise anything before the election.
Because the Labor have been faux opposition and gutlessly being cowed by the LNP, then maybe Labor feel too gutless to be straight with the Australian public.
Climate change will more than scare the horses if the world starts turning out the ways predicted.
Already there really in this country.
Just look at the last summer and it’s extension almost until today fro fire risk.
Next summer and the one after that are likely to be just as bad or worse, and the one after that
Gutless and useless, not asking questions, surrendering our future to the supposed goodwill and wisdom of political parties who seem to have nothing except mercenary self-interest is the way?
Sorry
I think for the commenters here it’s more about getting a rise out of others rather than any attempt to benefit Tories. Just my observation.
Quoll – my observations is Greens in SA have been supporting moving to a stable population and lowering consumption. But a few months ago when population debate was occurring there seemed to be suggestions from Adam Bandt and Richard di Natale that reducing population growth wasn’t a priority. Maybe it was in a particular context but it didn’t come across well. I’m not sure where Sustainable Aust. and Stop Population Growth Now parties are coming from but it seems surprising that there would be antagonism between them and the Greens. I need to look into it more.
Confessions some of it also desperately trying to reassure themselves rather than trying to convince anyone.
Off to Albo’s campaign launch tomorrow night. Hopefully a bit of fun to be had by all.
It must be comforting to think that people are secretly trying to help the Tories, rather than considering that one’s own party has perhaps abandoned the field on an important issue leading to severe disillusionment or even anger.
It is also revealing that some people think everyone has the same party/factional type thinking and motivations that they do, and cannot conceive of people being driven by pure principle.