The Australian has published what can doubtless be regarded as the most reliable – or at any rate, least unreliable – seat polls to emerge from the campaign so far, from four well-chosen electorates. These are automated phone polls conducted on Saturday and have modest samples, from 509 to 618, although they seem to fit very well with where the major parties believe things to stand. Among other things, this means each looks to be going down to the wire. Perhaps a little more surprisingly, they find Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party doing at least as well as the Palmer United Party did in 2013.
Deakin (Victoria, Liberal 6.4%): The Liberals are credited with a two-party lead of 51-49 in this eastern Melbourne seat, consistent with the general impression of a big swing to Labor in Victoria – though perhaps not quite enough to take out this particular seat, which is held by arch-conservative Michael Sukkar. The primary votes are Liberal 46%, compared with 50.3% in 2016; Labor 39%, compared with 30.1%; Greens 8%, compared with 11.3%; and 5% for the United Australia Party. The numbers for comparison here are as adjusted for the redistribution, which boosted the Liberal margin from 5.7% to 6.4%. The sample here was 535.
Pearce (WA, Liberal 3.6%): A dead heat on two-party preferred in Christian Porter’s seat on Perth’s northern fringes, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 8% (11%), United Australia Party 8% and One Nation 6%. Sample: 509.
Herbert (Queensland, Labor 0.0%): The Coalition has high hopes invested in recovering this Townsville-based seat from Labor’s Cathy O’Toole due to the Adani controversy, but the poll’s two party preferred reading finds nothing to separate the two parties on the primary vote, in a seat Labor won by 37 votes in 2016. Presumably these polls use respondent-allocated preferences, as 2016 preference flows suggest this is more like 51-49 to Labor: their primary vote is only down from 30.5% to 29%, while the Liberal National Party is down from 35.5% to 31.1%. The United Australia Party does particularly well here, despite Palmer himself having baulked at his earlier plan to contest the seat. It records 14% of the vote, resulting in One Nation fading from 13.5% to 9%, although Katter’s Australian Party are up from 6.9% to 10%. The Greens are at 5%, down from 6.3%. Sample: 529.
Lindsay (NSW, Labor 1.1%): Another status quo result in a seat the Liberals are talking up as a gain from Labor, who are credited with a 51-49 lead. In this case, previous election preferences would probably have produced a stronger result for the Liberals, who are up from 39.3% to 41% on the primary vote with Labor down from 41.1% to 40%. The Greens are little changed on 4%, compared with 3.6% last time, and the United Australia Party are on 7%. Sample: 618.
It has been said around the place that Essential Research was not letting Easter deter it from following its fortnightly polling schedule over the weekend, but it may be causing them to delay its release by a day, because there’s nothing about it on The Guardian’s site.
In the WTF moment of the day, Dennis Shanahan – renowned Murdoch shill – has been granted an Honorary Doctor of Letters by the Uni of Wollongong. It turns out he doesn’t have an undergraduate degree, and has clawed his way to his fat Murdoch salary through sheer sycophantic talent.
‘Mr Shanahan was yesterday (Tuesday 23 April) awarded a Doctor of Letters from the University of Wollongong, for his distinguished career as a journalist, commentator and editor.
It has been a fascinating career for Mr Shanahan, full of adventures with the world’s luminaries and stories that must make for unique dinner party anecdotes.
But journalism was a field that he came to by accident, because he was “good at English and talked a lot”.
“I really became a journalist by default,” Mr Shanahan said.
“My background was lower socioeconomic, I didn’t have much money. When I left high school, I didn’t want to become a teacher so I started to look around at other jobs.
“I spoke to the Careers Counsellor at my school and I told him I wanted to be a journalist. I wanted to know more about the field, but he told me, ‘don’t worry about it, you won’t make it’. That really angered me, so I thought ‘I’m going to prove I’m better than you!’”]
https://media.uow.edu.au/news/UOW257675.html
On another topic, I received an email from NBN today telling me I was ready to be connected to the NBN which in my area is HFC.
Can anyone recommend a Retail Service Provider that delivers the speeds claimed on a reliable basis?
There’s a reason the Greens are stuck at or below 10%, yet supposedly Labor will only win the election if they become more like the Greens.
If that was true shouldn’t the Greens be dragging voters away from the Liberals.
https://www.katherinetimes.com.au/story/6085299/labor-wants-to-fast-track-nt-fracking-too/
The Labor Party wants to use the $5 billion Northern Australian Infrastructure Facility to accelerate fracking for onshore gas in the NT.
Opposition leader Bill Shorten today said the much maligned fund would be axed and replaced with a new fund focused on pipelines to link gas fields across Queensland and the NT, if he was elected Prime Minister.
:::
“Labor’s Northern Australia Development Fund will provide a financing facility and work with Infrastructure Australia to identify and support projects of national economic significance, such as gas pipelines, in Australia’s north.”
Labor will set aside up to $1.5 billion for proposed pipelines across Queensland’s Galilee and Bowen basins while another line would connect the Beetaloo basin to Darwin and across to the east coast.
Mr Shorten said opening the Beetaloo basin could help turn Darwin into a “manufacturing powerhouse” with the area holding enough gas to supply the domestic market for up to 400 years.
“The great ALP will win the election with a 90 seat majority.
Bill Shorten will be crowned King of Australia,
The CFMEU will run the Banks and Zanetti will be driving an Uber to survive.
The Liberal party will split into 16 subfactions allied with the Gs and Barny will geta job in a Ipswich fish n chips shop selling slurry.”
Astute and comprehensive analysis of the current state of play. 🙂
BB
He is probably on the grog again.
Patrick Bateman @ #792 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:03 pm
Clearly you do not know what the term means.
” Are people really so disengaged and money hungry that they will support even these greedy fools?”
Yes.
EGW
No-one who votes Green due to climate change as an issue is ever, ever, ever going to preference the Libs over Labor. And despite the Greens’ major f-up last time around, they will absolutely support Labor on any revised carbon trading scheme this time. They’ve made that clear.
And as for our influence, we can at least stop our own contribution both in terms of domestic pollution and exported pollution. We are a large-ish contributor even in raw terms once you get the really big fish out of the way.
We have more to lose than a lot of countries. When it’s already hot and dry, the last thing you need is for it to be hotter and dryer.
Also, we are ridiculously well placed to be a dominant player in renewable power and should be cranking out so much of the stuff that we are exporting home made hydrogen, not coal.
‘Really disappointed in Labor’s approach to climate change too. This was the election to really grasp the nettle and be the mainstream option for people who realise that this is far and away the biggest problem facing humanity and, therefore, Australia.’
I was expecting bigger and bolder too. I really thought Labor would go for it. NBN 2.0, wages, the real sate of the economy, debt and deficit disaster, disunity, fcked NDIS rollout, no reffos storming Xmas Island…etc…….nothing….wet lettuce, Big Kim MK II.
Where’s the passion, the rage, the enthusiasm……where’s Paul!!!!!!!!!!!
sprocket_
How much did Rupert donate to Wollongong Uni & when did he do it ?
Ross Gittins on virtue signalling
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/like-teens-we-all-signal-our-virtues-the-economy-relies-on-it-20190421-p51fwx.html
EGW
Yes, I know what it means. I also know that it is wheeled out against anyone of a progressive bent who questions how things are going in the Labor camp.
Alpo @ #793 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:03 pm
I liked it better when Labor was closer to $1.10.
‘Clearly you do not know what the term means.’
Good one EGW.
You just made his/her point.
Oh wise sage of the great all knowing of things.
Give it a rest.
If the Coalition come into $2.20 I will be worried.
mundo
There have been a lot of LNP attack ads. I wonder if we’ll get the Labor version a bit closer to the finish line if things get tight. There’s so much to rip into… I mean, Morrison claiming this election is about trust, coupled with footage of him supporting the PM he promptly knifed, for example.
Or Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison… if you re-elect them you’ll get Dutton.
Plus all the stuff you mentioned – we’ll fix the mess the Libs have made of the NBN, we’ll take real action on climate change and getting our rivers flowing again, we’ll return Australia to the elite in terms of education, etc
So far all I’ve seen out and about are really pedestrian platitudes about ‘local jobs’ and hospitals.
Pegasus @ #812 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:13 pm
I employ the term against people engaging in futile symbolism as a substitute for effective action.
E.g. Greens.
Pegasus
It’s a bit like the term “Social Justice Warrior”/SJW. Wanting social justice is a bad thing, it seems.
Now Steve Davis, wash your fingers, I believe you meant ‘if’ the odds etc…..
EGW will call you a concern troll if you’re not very careful.
Patrick Bateman @ #813 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:13 pm
Labor is progressive but believes in also being effective.
Hence it parts company with the Greens and their tantrums.
mundo @ #815 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:14 pm
Relax, it is not a term I would apply to a concern troll.
Incidentally, driving around inner suburban Adelaide there is a big disparity between LNP and Labor corflutes. There are loads and loads of LNP ones, and a lot of them are targeted (e.g. at particularly bad intersections, “We’ll fix the intersection of X St and Y Avenue”).
In contrast, there are very few Labor ones. In the inner south (admittedly, LNP ground zero) I didn’t see a single Labor poster but did see dozens of Liberal ones.
There’s something about Wollongong Uni and the RW (perhaps the far RW). They were the first to do a deal with the Western Civilisation crowd. I think they were also associated with Keith Windschuttle of the ‘history wars’ saga.
EGW
If only your ilk had the same passion for fighting the real enemy that you have for fighting the Greens.
Patrick B
Agreed.
“In the WTF moment of the day, Dennis Shanahan – renowned Murdoch shill – has been granted an Honorary Doctor of Letters by the Uni of Wollongong. It turns out he doesn’t have an undergraduate degree, and has clawed his way to his fat Murdoch salary through sheer sycophantic talent.”
TBF, Shanahan did, in the heat of the 2007 election, stumble across the ‘PPM is a reliable leading indicator of voting intentions’ theorem, which has revolutionised psephology in Australia for the last decade.
Hang on…
Mundo
I edited my fingers just for you.
Patrick Bateman @ #817 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:16 pm
I have seen a Labor attack ad and it is pretty good.
Of course it does not mention Turnbull as he is no longer in the game.
The trio of evil it targets are Morrison, Dutton and Abbott.
sprocket_ says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 9:08 pm
This completely understandable, after all they are the home to the Ramsey Centre’s Bachelor of Arts in Western Civilisation.
https://media.uow.edu.au/news/UOW254901.html
I love that the Western Civilisation degree is a BA, so routinely derided by the LNP and their fans as a useless piece of paper.
Patrick Bateman @ #825 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:20 pm
Greens are boring.
They remind me a bit of BBs description of the sandflies in NZ.
I am campaigning for my local ALP candidate and we will win Chisholm.
Sceptic @ #819 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:12 pm
It’s Ramsay money – the Centre for Western
ImperialismCivilisation thing. Mind you, since the award of a bullshit PhD to the rabid antivaxxer Wilyman their Social Sciences Faculty have been a beacon for all sorts of conspiracy nuts, not just Climate Denialists and Wind Turbine Phobics.It’s similar in southern Canberra. Plenty of Seselja (just don’t call me a Liberal) and the Liberal candidate for Bean. Of course these roadside signs become annoying after a while and tend to be counter productive.
EGW
One ad?
Anyway, why not mention Turnbull for crisakes. The punters’ prince, the great one, chosen, blessed, Malcolm oh Malcolm, where for art thou Malcolm.
They took Kevin off us and now Malcolm….oh woe is us.
For crisakes, make a big deal out of the tories eating their own. THEY KNIFED MALCOLM! BLOOD WRETCHED BLOOD!! THE STAIN!!
Do we want to win or not.
BB: “The Nath Thing is losing its cool. And so soon!”
Nath should get his mate Wayne to give him some lessons in composure and decorum.
I mean, it’s like the freakin cluster circus of the past 6 years never happened.
mundo @ #835 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:26 pm
Could be more. I don’t watch much commercial TV.
It sure beats advertising against Turnbull as Patrick Bateman seemed to think was a good idea.
mundo – exactly, let’s see slow mo footage of Turnbull weeping after his knifing, please.
“This is the guy you elected (close up on Turnbull’s shit eating grin)… this is the guy the far right decided you should have instead” (close up on Morrison’s orgasm-at-church-because-Jesus-told-me-to-cut-welfare face).
EGW, you obviously struggle with reading. Nowhere have I suggested advertising “against Turnbull”.
Steve Davis
So your finally admitting that our great LNP will win the May 18 election
Right Wing virtue signals include devotion to the flag, devotion to conservative institutions like the Monarchy and Anzac Day, banging on about law and order, banging on about ‘family values’ (you don’t have to actually practice them, just not get caught out), saying how much you want to punish wrongdoers, religiosity (more so in the USA than here), decrying ‘political correctness’ (the left version), and since the turn of the century, climate denial.
Down in my corner of the Chisholm electorate there are few corflutes of either major party candidate.
Labor corflutes feature Yang only. Liberal corflutes feature Liu and Morrison together.
Make of that what you will.
Sohar
You’ve woken FakeNewsWayne# up now !!
Patrick Bateman @ #839 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:28 pm
There is all sorts of stuff I would like to see too.
But I am a rusted on and the advertising needs to appeal to people who have a much different mindset to you, mundo or me. I acknowledge that I am therefore probably a poor judge of what would work well.
EGW – It is Morrison, Abbott, Dutton. – MAD!
As for the 51-49 to the Libs in Deakin – I’d be very surprised if it weren’t closer to 45-55…
EGW, I remember some very effective Lib ads involving Gillard and Rudd when Labor last lost power. Don’t see why the same thing wouldn’t work this time around.
If there’s one thing people hate, it’s having their choice taken away from them. There’s a strong angle there that if you vote Liberal you’ll just get whichever right winger decides to knife the PM in a few months, i.e., your choice will be taken away.
Patrick B
That’s what I’m talking about.
I thought we would have seen that by now. It’s the killer campaign I was expecting.
I just don’t get it.
The Uni of Wollongong was involved in some criminal activity at its Dubai campus a few years ago. The company you keep..
For those who want more extreme left Labor policies thrown into the mix, you need to step back and understand that while Labor might want to be more extreme, it MUST convince the middle they are safe to vote Labor.
That means no matter how right, or noble your desires for a progressive govt in terms of policy, pragmatism demand you take the biggest proportion of voters with you.
What is too extreme in the eyes of generally conservative voters and they will vote conservative by reflex.
To change the govt, you must convince them it is safe to do so.