Newspoll: Deakin, Pearce, Herbert and Lindsay

Newspoll seat polls target four seats that are expected to go down to the wire, producing results to match.

The Australian has published what can doubtless be regarded as the most reliable – or at any rate, least unreliable – seat polls to emerge from the campaign so far, from four well-chosen electorates. These are automated phone polls conducted on Saturday and have modest samples, from 509 to 618, although they seem to fit very well with where the major parties believe things to stand. Among other things, this means each looks to be going down to the wire. Perhaps a little more surprisingly, they find Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party doing at least as well as the Palmer United Party did in 2013.

Deakin (Victoria, Liberal 6.4%): The Liberals are credited with a two-party lead of 51-49 in this eastern Melbourne seat, consistent with the general impression of a big swing to Labor in Victoria – though perhaps not quite enough to take out this particular seat, which is held by arch-conservative Michael Sukkar. The primary votes are Liberal 46%, compared with 50.3% in 2016; Labor 39%, compared with 30.1%; Greens 8%, compared with 11.3%; and 5% for the United Australia Party. The numbers for comparison here are as adjusted for the redistribution, which boosted the Liberal margin from 5.7% to 6.4%. The sample here was 535.

Pearce (WA, Liberal 3.6%): A dead heat on two-party preferred in Christian Porter’s seat on Perth’s northern fringes, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 8% (11%), United Australia Party 8% and One Nation 6%. Sample: 509.

Herbert (Queensland, Labor 0.0%): The Coalition has high hopes invested in recovering this Townsville-based seat from Labor’s Cathy O’Toole due to the Adani controversy, but the poll’s two party preferred reading finds nothing to separate the two parties on the primary vote, in a seat Labor won by 37 votes in 2016. Presumably these polls use respondent-allocated preferences, as 2016 preference flows suggest this is more like 51-49 to Labor: their primary vote is only down from 30.5% to 29%, while the Liberal National Party is down from 35.5% to 31.1%. The United Australia Party does particularly well here, despite Palmer himself having baulked at his earlier plan to contest the seat. It records 14% of the vote, resulting in One Nation fading from 13.5% to 9%, although Katter’s Australian Party are up from 6.9% to 10%. The Greens are at 5%, down from 6.3%. Sample: 529.

Lindsay (NSW, Labor 1.1%): Another status quo result in a seat the Liberals are talking up as a gain from Labor, who are credited with a 51-49 lead. In this case, previous election preferences would probably have produced a stronger result for the Liberals, who are up from 39.3% to 41% on the primary vote with Labor down from 41.1% to 40%. The Greens are little changed on 4%, compared with 3.6% last time, and the United Australia Party are on 7%. Sample: 618.

It has been said around the place that Essential Research was not letting Easter deter it from following its fortnightly polling schedule over the weekend, but it may be causing them to delay its release by a day, because there’s nothing about it on The Guardian’s site.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,037 comments on “Newspoll: Deakin, Pearce, Herbert and Lindsay”

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  1. From previous thread:
    I’m not criticising Larissa Waters because she’s a Green but I just think Senators and candidates should behave with decorum. Leave the silly stuff, like the earrings, to the supporters. I would say the same btw, if a Labor Senator ran around with, ‘Restore Penalty Rates’ earrings on. Though they would be bigger though and thus look sillier.

  2. By way of contrast, there was a report on Channel 9 last night, which I saw on Twitter, that stated that the Coalition polling in some Victorian seats they held was so bad that they had given up on them. Corangamite and Chisholm I think. Even though Scott Morrison is pretending otherwise. I guess that explains Sarah Henderson’s desperate moves on the weekend past in joining a ‘Stop Great Australian Bight Oil Drilling’ protest. Also too big to fit on earrings but she may get them made if she gets desperate enough I guess. 🙂

  3. @Tashabelle

    My local church today asked ppl to vote a certain way. Is this allowed? Why are they tax exempted for?


    So yeah why churches are forcing people to vote certain ways?


    [According to the latest Newspoll released late Monday night, Mr Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP) is polling a stunning 14 per cent in the Queensland seat of Herbert. He previously held the Queensland seat of Fairfax from 2013 to 2016.

    Mr Palmer’s resurgence could deliver a silver lining for the Liberal Party which is likely to secure his party’s preferences in key marginal seats.

    But in good news for Labor, the poll suggests the current MP, Cathy O’Toole, is still in with a chance in the seat that was feared lost with the result 50:50.]

  5. Cold start to the day for Sandgropers. 🙂

    Coldest it’s been in April in >25yrs #Bickley (4.4C), 19yrs #MtLawley (5.6C), 10yrs #Jandakot (4.0C) (link:…


    Coldest for April in 25yrs #Swanbourne (7.5), >20yrs #GooseberryHill (6.6C), 12yrs #MtLawley (5.8)


    Coldest it’s been in April in >50yrs #Norseman (0.8C), 47yrs #Manjimup (3.8), 30yr #Dwellingup (2.8)


  6. Ruh-oh:

    Barnaby Joyce requested updates on $80m sale of water by Eastern Australia Agriculture
    Joyce asked department to ‘report back to me on this and seek final approval before settling the purchase’

    So much for, ‘intelligent people are paid a lot of money to make these decisions and I just left them to it’, or wtte. 🙂

  7. Can’t get more damning than this:

    Former agriculture minister Barnaby Joyce specifically asked to be kept informed by his department about progress on the $80m sale of water by Eastern Australia Agriculture – a company founded by the energy minister, Angus Taylor – documents released to the Senate show.

    Joyce, who was minister at the time the controversial $80m water buyback went through in mid-2017, has said he played no part in the negotiations with the company.

  8. From Speers newsletter

    Labor’s plan to turn Darwin into gas export and manufacturing powerhouse
    Matt Cunningham, Northern Australia Correspondent

    Labor will disband the $5 billion North Australia Infrastructure Facility and establish a new fund focussed on unlocking onshore gas reserves in Queensland and the Northern Territory, should Bill Shorten’s team prevail at the federal election.

    The Opposition Leader will today announce plans for a Northern Australia Development Fund which Labor says will transform Darwin into a gas export and manufacturing powerhouse.
    Labor’s initiative will see $1.5 billion set aside to unlock gas supply from the Galilee and Bowen basins in Queensland and the Beetaloo basin in the Northern Territory.

    It’s estimated the Beetaloo Basin alone has enough gas to supply the Australian domestic market for the next 400 years.

    Labor says its new fund will work with Infrastructure Australia to build new gas pipelines, allowing gas from the Beetaloo, Gallilee and Bowen basins to be easily transported to the east coast – effectively putting downward pressure on prices.

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Nicole Hasham reports on Joyce’s train wreck interview with Patricia Karvelas.
    As does The Guardian’s Anne Davies.
    Jenna Price defends the social media attacks on Karvelas and other journalists.
    Former Water Minister Barnaby Joyce spent $80 million buying back floodwater from a Cayman Islands company set up by Energy Minister Angus Taylor. The Twitter sleuths who first uncovered this controversy, Jommy Tee and Ronni Salt, report exclusively for IA.,12603
    Sam Maiden writes that Australia’s Future Fund gained benefit ‘indirectly’ from a controversial $80 million water buyback. And she says it has also emerged that the company at the centre of the deal, Eastern Australian Agriculture, donated $55,000 to the Liberal Party before the 2013 election.
    A private company co-owned by the Liberal Party’s federal treasurer donated $200,000 two weeks into a government tender process for an accommodation contract worth nearly $1 billion that another of his companies ultimately won. Nothing going on here of course!
    Peter Hartcher why Indonesia rejected the path of strong-man politics.
    The budget’s dirty secret is the hikes in tax rates you’re not meant to know about.
    According to Bruce Haigh the AFP’s ties to the Coalition have almost turned our nation into a police state, using terrorism and immigration as political tools.,12602
    Sarah Martin writes that a host of government MPs fighting to hold on to their seats have erased the Liberals’ name and logo from campaign material, sparking Labor claims that the party’s brand is “toxic”.
    Anna Patty reveals that many inner-city Sydney venues were charging customers a surcharge of 10 per cent to 15 per cent on Easter Monday despite a reduction in penalty rates for hospitality staff.
    The Coalition government, now staggering towards almost certain demise, will leave behind several abysmal records. Among these is a rate of ministerial departures which may never be exceeded.,12601
    Sally Whyte tells us that Labor leader Bill Shorten won’t say which public service bosses will keep their jobs if he were to win government, but has said there wouldn’t be mass sackings of secretaries.
    Michael Koziol reports that Taxpayers have now forked out at least $1.2 million to cover the costs of a police inquiry into leaked information pertaining to raids on the headquarters of the Australian Workers’ Union. But documents newly released to the Senate show a litany of Liberal staffers refused to give statements to the Australian Federal Police and the two ministers involved – Small Business Minister Michaelia Cash and Human Services Minister Michael Keenan – took five weeks to provide a written response to investigators.
    Former UN spokesman there Gordon Weiss says that Sri Lanka’s leaders need to seize their own New Zealand moment.
    Ross Gittins writes, “In today’s economy we’re suffering from a loss of trust, caused by a lack of virtuous behaviour, which has damaged reputations. We need economic behaviour to be a lot more virtuous. As that virtue is signalled, others will join in and the group norm of acceptable behaviour will be restored.”
    Tony Walker opines that Bill Shorten, who turned in an indifferent first week of campaigning, can thank independent journalist Michael West for deflecting attention from a poor start to his bid to become the country’s 31st prime minister.
    Bevan Shields reports on Morrison’s reaction to social media mocking of him after he invited the press in to see him on action in his rather wacky church.
    Michelle Grattan asks, “Can $55 million get Clive Palmer back into parliamentary game?”
    Drought-driven food price spikes and building pressure at the petrol pump will not be enough to lift stubbornly low inflation this year or, economists predict, alter the Reserve Bank’s likely next move on interest rates.
    In echoes of his pledge at the start of the year to create 1.25 million jobs over the next five years if elected, Mr Morrison will set a new target today of an average 50,000 new small businesses a year for the next five years, bettering by 20,000 the number which were created over the previous same period.
    Labor will significantly increase the cost of foreign labour, saying the system is being used to undercut locals and stagnate wages growth.
    Staff have raised alarm bells about patient safety at Mildura Base Hospital, calling it a “ticking time bomb”.
    The Liberal Party has abandoned a $1.2 million data harvesting system amid a botched rollout and fears sensitive voter information was at risk, as the government deals with an internal rift over software once touted as its electoral “silver bullet”. So much for that!
    Elizabeth Knight doesn’t think we’ll be much the wiser on what real progress the banks have made after Hayne’s report once this next round of reporting is over.
    Meanwhile Stephen Bartholomeusz says that it’s now less than a fortnight before the AMP annual meeting that will decide whether David Murray retains his position as chairman and, indeed, whether the current board remains in place.
    The nation’s biggest bank has backed calls for a register of buildings with flammable cladding to ensure potential purchasers know what they are buying. This was bound to happen.
    This will go down well! Councils across NSW are seeking to raise rates by up to 15 per cent a year, well in excess of the 2.7 per cent maximum increase permitted by the pricing regulator.
    Oh oh! Samsung will delay the launch of its first foldable smartphone from the planned April 26 debut after reports of screen failures among some review units, a setback for the world’s biggest handset maker.
    Trump and his business have sued House Oversight Committee Chairman Elijah Cummings in a bid to block a congressional subpoena of his financial records. The lawsuit seeks a court order to prevent Trump’s accounting firm from complying with what his lawyers say is an improper use of subpoena power by congressional Democrats.
    Latika Bourke tells how a Liberal candidate has appeared to refer to Chloe Shorten as a pig on social media. Nice.

    Cartoon Corner

    What a shocker from David Rowe!

    Cathy Wilcox examines the Mueller report.

    From Matt Golding.

    A couple from Mark David on the MDB.

    Wes Mountain on water safety.

    Zanetti’s right on song!

    Sean Leahy on the Sri Lanka bombings.

    Jon Kudelka on our monarchy.

    From the US.

  10. Zoidlord @ #5 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 6:45 am


    My local church today asked ppl to vote a certain way. Is this allowed? Why are they tax exempted for?


    So yeah why churches are forcing people to vote certain ways?

    Like to explain how churches are FORCING people to vote in a certain way? Whilst I agree ‘churches’ shouldn’t do this, I think using the word forcing is just dishonest.

  11. Tom

    Maybe brainwashed instead. Its propaganda of the worst kind. Vote this way or you will go to hell.

    That’s the implication.

    So maybe not forced but not far from it.

    Much better to have Father Bowers approach. When he got to the point of telling people how to vote he publically said he was resigning and going to run for parliament.

  12. Roy Morgan has a 2pp for Labor in the 52 to 53 range according to ABC NewsRadio. I missed the actual percentage point.

    Queensland voters 33% undecided
    None of the parties addressing their issues.

  13. Virginia is doing a reasonable job turning Scrott’s morning into a shit sandwich on ABC 24 . I think she will be off the Christmas Card list now.

  14. Well well well. Things not looking good at all for Barnaby and Angus.

    ‘The company at the centre of a controversial multimillion-dollar water buyback donated $55,000 to the Liberal Party before the 2013 election.

    ‘The Herald Sun can reveal EAA donated to the NSW Liberal Party in 2012 and 2013.

    ‘At least one of the ­donations was made while ­current Energy Minister Angus Taylor was listed as a director of the company’s parent company, Eastern Australia Irrigation, which is based in the tax haven of the Cayman Islands.’

  15. Well well well. Things not looking good at all for Barnaby and Angus.

    ‘The company at the centre of a controversial multimillion-dollar water buyback donated $55,000 to the Liberal Party before the 2013 election.

    ‘The Herald Sun can reveal EAA donated to the NSW Liberal Party in 2012 and 2013.

    ‘At least one of the ­donations was made while ­current Energy Minister Angus Taylor was listed as a director of the company’s parent company, Eastern Australia Irrigation, which is based in the tax haven of the Cayman Islands.’

  16. Good, given the size of the sample, the assumptions about preferences, etc. Labor seems to be in a very good position to take all of those seats (retain theirs and snatch the Liberal ones)….

    Newspoll seems to be scared of making a national poll result known to the People, so we are just left with Essential, I guess…. still waiting.

    C’mon guys, don’t be shy, there is nothing wrong in telling the Coalition that it’s over for them…..

  17. @Tom

    Telling people how to vote.
    Is no different to not serving people if they are gay.

    There is no difference.

    You are given a choice, but not of that of your own choice.

    You also need to remember that this poster also said that it’s becaude liberals said they sent the church a letter containing Labor policies in their own words.

  18. sprocket@6:40am
    “William, Lindsay is in the great state of NSW”
    So what?
    Libs won the seat of Penrith which falls with in Lindsay.
    LNP won state elections from NSW.
    Morrison, Abbott, Howard, MT are from NSW.

  19. @Tashabelle:

    “Apparently ScoMo sent them a letter which was read out re: Labor policies which will be targeting religious people Can’t believe the Liberals are playing this dirty”

  20. Williame Bowe,
    Does state seat of Mirani fall under Herbert? A good ALP member lost the seat to One Nation (one and only).
    Will the Stop Advani convoy of Brown and RDN stop at the seat of Dickson? 🙂

  21. @Beanjuicecafe1

    Hey @ScottMorrisonMP , @billshortenmp, how about instead of spending the $500 million on the war memorial upgrade, you spend the money on the veterans who are struggling to survive! #AusVotes2019  #auspol  #OzVeteransVote #AustralianLabor #LiberalAus

  22. Zoidlord @ #28 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 7:49 am


    Telling people how to vote.
    Is no different to not serving people if they are gay.

    There is no difference.

    You are given a choice, but not of that of your own choice.

    You also need to remember that this poster also said that it’s becaude liberals said they sent the church a letter containing Labor policies in their own words.

    They can try to convince or to pressure them, but at the end of the day they can NOT force them to vote in a certain way. They are not standing in the polling booth. They do not know how people vote. The word force in this context is just plain false.

  23. There must be good money to be made by being in parliament, why else is clive palmer spending 10s of millions of dollars to get his arse on a pew.

    How will he recover those 10s of millions on the salary of a member of parliament.

  24. I know I’m a greedy bastard but it seems unfair that Barnyard is not now the leader of the Nats and Deputy Prime Minister. Bugger.

    The Guardian (particularly Anne Davies!) deserves a huge congratulation for her work uncovering Watergate. If you go back through her stories in the guardian over the last couple of years you’ll find lots of detail still being overlooked.

  25. Nothing in these seat polls tells us anything more than most people would already know.
    There is probably little or no swing in the “conservative-regional” seats such as Herbert. I would actually venture that Lindsay falls into that category as well, having lived there, it is a very conservative and insular, WASP demographic.
    There is a substantial swing in the urban seats (as evidenced by Deakin and Pearce) away from the Morrison government.
    Either way, there is no evidence that the government has any likelihood of re-election. They will lose a batch of seats in Victoria, WA and Brisbane giving Labor a comfortable, if not a landslide majority.
    The Murdochrag Media can spin all they like but the math never fails.

  26. Has Tony Winsor ruled himself out from running against Barnaby… i expect he has, but cant find anything ?

    Its tragedy that Barnaby will likely have an easy win despite being one of the most scandal prone MPs in a generation.

  27. Latest Michael West Tweet:

    Michael West
    Key progress #Watergate:
    Joyce was involved in sale. Lied to

    Angus Taylor associate Tony Reid involved
    Valuer Colliers worked both sides of deal; EAA then Govt
    Future Fund a stretch; vicarious connection via PAG
    Taylor’s Lib donations old news

    Of course Angus Taylor wasn’t involved after he entered parliament. But it seems like he made sure a trusted mate was still involved.

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