Newspoll: Deakin, Pearce, Herbert and Lindsay

Newspoll seat polls target four seats that are expected to go down to the wire, producing results to match.

The Australian has published what can doubtless be regarded as the most reliable – or at any rate, least unreliable – seat polls to emerge from the campaign so far, from four well-chosen electorates. These are automated phone polls conducted on Saturday and have modest samples, from 509 to 618, although they seem to fit very well with where the major parties believe things to stand. Among other things, this means each looks to be going down to the wire. Perhaps a little more surprisingly, they find Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party doing at least as well as the Palmer United Party did in 2013.

Deakin (Victoria, Liberal 6.4%): The Liberals are credited with a two-party lead of 51-49 in this eastern Melbourne seat, consistent with the general impression of a big swing to Labor in Victoria – though perhaps not quite enough to take out this particular seat, which is held by arch-conservative Michael Sukkar. The primary votes are Liberal 46%, compared with 50.3% in 2016; Labor 39%, compared with 30.1%; Greens 8%, compared with 11.3%; and 5% for the United Australia Party. The numbers for comparison here are as adjusted for the redistribution, which boosted the Liberal margin from 5.7% to 6.4%. The sample here was 535.

Pearce (WA, Liberal 3.6%): A dead heat on two-party preferred in Christian Porter’s seat on Perth’s northern fringes, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 8% (11%), United Australia Party 8% and One Nation 6%. Sample: 509.

Herbert (Queensland, Labor 0.0%): The Coalition has high hopes invested in recovering this Townsville-based seat from Labor’s Cathy O’Toole due to the Adani controversy, but the poll’s two party preferred reading finds nothing to separate the two parties on the primary vote, in a seat Labor won by 37 votes in 2016. Presumably these polls use respondent-allocated preferences, as 2016 preference flows suggest this is more like 51-49 to Labor: their primary vote is only down from 30.5% to 29%, while the Liberal National Party is down from 35.5% to 31.1%. The United Australia Party does particularly well here, despite Palmer himself having baulked at his earlier plan to contest the seat. It records 14% of the vote, resulting in One Nation fading from 13.5% to 9%, although Katter’s Australian Party are up from 6.9% to 10%. The Greens are at 5%, down from 6.3%. Sample: 529.

Lindsay (NSW, Labor 1.1%): Another status quo result in a seat the Liberals are talking up as a gain from Labor, who are credited with a 51-49 lead. In this case, previous election preferences would probably have produced a stronger result for the Liberals, who are up from 39.3% to 41% on the primary vote with Labor down from 41.1% to 40%. The Greens are little changed on 4%, compared with 3.6% last time, and the United Australia Party are on 7%. Sample: 618.

It has been said around the place that Essential Research was not letting Easter deter it from following its fortnightly polling schedule over the weekend, but it may be causing them to delay its release by a day, because there’s nothing about it on The Guardian’s site.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,037 comments on “Newspoll: Deakin, Pearce, Herbert and Lindsay”

Comments Page 2 of 21
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  1. Morning all. Thanks BK. Shorten did not have a great week last week, but Watergate and Barnaby’s interview implosion can only help Labor. Labor needs to quietly target more all the dubious actions of the government, including the fake promises in its fake budget, and the fact that Liberals have doubled the debt since Labor left office, plus personal debts through the roof.

    Northern and Central Queensland are clearly feeling afraid and unloved if the seat polls are true. However clever the strategy to say Labor will follow the law on Adani if it wins, it is not enough. Rural Queenslanders do not believe Labor will permit Adani, and urban voters will be furious unless they stop it.

    Inspired by the arm twisting in the Lincoln movie, Labor needs a plan B in Queensland. That means money to help a low educated area that cannot see jobs outside of coal or farming. In central Qld fund the Rookwood Weir to support rural construction and agriculture jobs. In north Qld throw a bone to Townsville and Cairns.pick some stuff out of the Qld Infrastructure Plan and say those projects will be brought forward to assist the economy if Adani fails. Upgrade the rail track to increase tilt train speeds and flood imunity to Cairns. To be blunt, just buy votes. The Labor budget position is vastly superior to Liberals and this could easily be done for under a billion.

  3. Good morning and thanks to BK once again for the Dawn Patrol.

    A quick look at The Australian shows the usual conglomeration of tish, tosh and folderol – and in the middle of it all —
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/masterclass-in-harmony-bodes-well-for-alp-in-power/news-story/fe8ed3d0830750e0a7067f0813571ede

    All of Labor’s policy announcements have been agreed in advance of the campaign. Labor won’t bow to pressure to change its superannuation, negative gearing or franking credits policy. But it does need to better explain the impact of its climate change policies. If elected, some policies might need to be reworked, with better modelling and costing.

    But, overall, Labor knows what it wants to achieve in government.

    Shorten told me that he won’t be wasting time with a Rudd-style 2020 Summit.

    He won’t be “getting out the butcher’s paper” and asking policy gurus and celebrities “what do we do now?” Shorten will hit the ground running with a bold program, like the early days of the Whitlam government.

    I suspect that the above article may come from a galaxy far, far away and has no place in the present continuum – because-
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/expecting-truth-from-shorten-is-a-fools-game/news-story/2bc6cf4b912291029f7465c5606a26b3

    Reveals the Truth as unveiled by Mr. A. Jones Esq.

    Bill Shorten is bidding to be prime minister but perhaps he has been seduced by the opinion polls because he has forgotten a golden rule of life and politics and sport.

    If you don’t do the homework, you have no hope of passing the exam. At the end of the first full week, Shorten has to be given a massive F for fail.

    In the body of Mr. Jones exposition is a very nice photo of Mr. and Mrs. Shorten.
    The article is well written and reveals the awful truth
    to wit –
    The Labor lot don’t know nuffink about anyfink.

    Expect the voter to say if you don’t know, we vote no.

    The double suns of the new earth casting weird shadows in the tritwilight ambience heralding a new dawn of schizophrenic ping pong in which the game is played with an imaginary ball while the real ball is safely locked in a cabinet to be opened on the evening of May 18. Hallelujah.

    In conclusion I award Mr. Jones a massive “F” for fie on you Mr. Jones.

    Coffee for two please Muriel. No, don’t get up I can manage. ☕☕

    P.S. The Holden Ute – parked across the road for a couple of days – has gone. What does it mean ❓

  4. Morning all. Thanks BK for the wrap today.

    Looks like #watergate has been picked up by most media outlets now, even News ltd. Barnaby was bound to insert himself fully into the story by tweeting Karvelas on Sunday. I reckon if he’d just done nothing it would’ve likely died away, but no, he had to react and then do that trainwreck interview yesterday.

    Will Scotty now claim #watergate is a ‘bubble matter’? 😆

  5. Why would ‘bogans’ be automatically conservative?

    Most bogans are exactly the kind of worker Labor supports. They also voted overwhelmingly for ME.

  6. Thanks BK, and belated happy BD. And many more.

    Here’s something in the Eddy Jokovich piece which might be common knowledge but I’d missed in all the misinformation and obfuscation going on (I only made it 5 mins into Joyce on RN; it was like listening to vomit):

    … EAA sought a water buy-back twice during Labor’s time in government between 2007–2013, but was refused on both occasions;

    That needs to be thrown back at Joyce with his Wong 300 mill slobberings.

  7. Watching News 24 replays on Barnaby & Morrison interviews, why doesn’t the ABC fact check statements made. Regardless of of their supporting or contradicting views put.

  9. Maybe the argument needs to be that Adani isn’t actually the El Dorado these voters think it is going to be. Wasn’t the number of jobs massively oversold to them?

  10. Itza:

    Karvelas said she would invite Wong and Burke onto her show, and I reckon they will accept the invitations with relish. That was another of Barnaby’s helpful suggestions (thanks Barnaby!), which at this point will just keep the story kicking along.

  11. Fess

    Labor have not been in power since 2013. If there was anything untoward with deals done during that time, barnaby could point them out.
    It is merely deflection by him.

  12. Ronni-BarnabyGaveTheApproval-Salt
    @MsVeruca
    ·
    31s
    How is it acting “within legislation” to direct senior departmental staff to contact (without open tender) a company based in the Caymans to pay $80 million of taxpayers money for flood water that stays on the property the taxpayers don’t own & only exists in a flood?

    #watergate
    Quote Tweet

    News Breakfast
    @BreakfastNews
    · 1h
    Prime Minister @ScottMorrisonMP says Barnaby Joyce “acted in accordance with the legislation” over the $80 million taxpayer-funded water deal.

  13. Shiftaling.

    Yes testified in court.

    I think it’s why CFMEU Qld has changed its threat over Adani.
    Their best role is to tell that truth and point out Media is relaying lies.

  14. Vic:

    And as was put to Barnaby yesterday, the Qld govt doesn’t negotiate the price, it’s the Commonwealth’s responsibility. Barnaby just kept shouting Labor Labor Labor at her.

    Two words that Barnaby obviously isn’t familiar with: due diligence. And that right there is why he is utterly unfit to be a minister in any govt.

  15. Shiftalling

    Yes as Guytaur said there were two court hearings where Adani’s job claims were shredded. By a factor of ten. From 12000 to about 1000. Most of the jobs will be temporary during construction. Given that included the infrastructure that relied on government support anyway, Labor could do better promising to do some other stuff the region needs, hence my earlier post.

    Big mines are getting increasingly mechanized, with very few unskilled jobs left. Australia already has driverless ore trains and driverless ore trucks.

  16. Seriously wtf!

    Michael West
    @MichaelWestBiz
    ·
    3m
    Hearing there may be movement re another #Caymans deal – the 43 hospitals to Caribbean takeover approved by
    @JoshFrydenberg
    , as per

    From the Northern Beaches of Sydney to the Northern Beaches of George Town, Cayman Islands
    Barack Obama once described it as “either this is the largest building in the world or the largest tax scam in the world”. That was in 2009. The building was Ugland House in George Town on the Caribbe
    michaelwest.com.au

  17. Question – the sole function of the mainstream media in this country (Guardian accepted) is to pump up the tyres of the Liberal Party. Fortunately, they’re dinosaurs. I’ve started to find their useless meanderings (which I don’t pay for) quite funny.

  19. Watergate and the stench of corruption from a text book right wing regime will not be completely uncovered nor finished before the election.
    Names, places and money are still to be revealed.
    There needs to be another look at Robb and influence benefitting certain foreign corporations.
    Dutton, contracts and off shore detention centres haven’t been made public.
    Timor is still to be resolved.
    Stuart Robert is still in parliament.
    The inland railway route and contracts.
    If we had an open and honest MSM the LNP would be lucky to gain 40% two party preferred.
    Federal parliament has been a conduit to obtain financial advantage.
    The LNP have become brazen and sloppy.
    They can’t even do corrupt without stuffing up.

  21. Maybe I was up too early but I thought Trioli did an excellent job with Morriscum this am. Well prepared, kept the contradictions and issues coming so he couldn’t get too shorty. In fact the facial expressions were quite indicative of someone who was not enjoying the experience.
    It must be difficult to counter the crap he sprouts but Virginia just kept him on the back foot with a nod to the crap he was sprouting and just slipping in the next challenge. I was impressed, not usually a fan of Trioli but the social media issue with Patricia might have reset the focus of the journalists?

  22. Are we going to find out that the watergate buyback was the ONLY thing that went across Barny’s desk that he DID pay attention to. That would be a laugh.

  23. Just as it was 100 years ago 2 easy peasy questions explain all when it comes to the MSM

    Who owns them ?
    Who do pays the journalists’ salary ?

  24. Dog’s Breakfast,
    I think you’ve put your finger on the reason for Virginia Trioli’s spirited performance this morning. She sees a fast moving Patricia Karvelas in her rear view mirror. 🙂

  29. Don’t forget Trioli and Karvelas are based in Melbourne.
    They know the feeling about how Victorian’s will vote.
    Despite the it’s going to be close narrative they know it’s Labor’s election to lose.

  30. C@tmomma
    Didn’t Keating looked jolly during 1996 Federal election, which ALP lost in a landslide? Didn’t Keating lead Howard as preferred PM in that election?

  31. If you want to investigate Liberal Party corruption, you could add the Melbourne EW link to the list. A $2 billion Abbott government contribution to a projetc with a hastily signed contract drafted by the tenderer!? And an obligated payout of $1.2 billion on a six billion project? So effectively a 20% win fee. Unheard of. I would love to know if the financier donated any money.

  32. As previously mentioned here, the rise of Clive may be explained by seat-polling using land-lines and perhaps more conservative voters. That would also explain the drop in green support. If that is correct, surely these polls signal Armageddon for the libs.

  34. Is this why so many lib big-wigs have jumped ship? They know the reckoning for all these sleazy dealings is on the way?

  37. As I said the other day, a federal ICAC will have enough on its plate for its first few years just cleaning up this current govt’s dodgy deeds.

  38. sonar@8:29am
    So it appears state seat Mulgoa, where there is substantial swing to LNP in state election, is within Lindsay. Diane Beamer, ALP candidate for Lindsay, was once member of Mulgoa when Bob Carr was Premier.

  39. From The Guardian

    Labor to announce an inquiry into the Inland Rail. Project. NSW Farmers Federation have been asking for it.

  40. Man Barnaby is in meltdown in that PK interview “labor labor labor labor labor government” is a direct quote from him.

  41. C@tmomma@9:20am
    I mentioned Keating because Morrison is campaigning like that and Shorten is campaigning like Howard, calmly.

  42. Zoomster
    All the Labor supporters I hang out with are artists, academics and teachers…they’re also ‘workers’ whatever that means..not a bogan amongst them.
    Now, the few bogans I do know are rusted on tories or ON….and they lurve ScUmo..

  43. Interesting small detail in the preference flow data from the 2016 fed election – in the 17 HoR seats where they could model the minor party prefs, besides the ones you’d expect to mainly flow to Labor (Greens 80%, Animal Justice 62%, Socialist Alt 74%, Hemp, Arts, Science Party etc), the Shooters preferences also went to Labor 55% of the time.

    On the other side, a narrow majority of Sustainable Australia voters preferenced the Libs.

    Hinch voters were almost 50-50, but slightly more preferenced Labor. The HinchMob and Palmer will be fighting for the same protest vote in Victoria which may mess with that.

    Overall, a majority of minor party voters preferenced Labor, about 60-40 split overall.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-15/preference-flows-at-the-2016-federal-election/9388826

  45. Confessions @ #59 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 8:49 am

    Itza:

    Karvelas said she would invite Wong and Burke onto her show, and I reckon they will accept the invitations with relish. That was another of Barnaby’s helpful suggestions (thanks Barnaby!), which at this point will just keep the story kicking along.

    Yep. Burke is handling this very well, isn’t he. The letter to the Dept was a cracker. I’d love to hear Penny Wong interviewed. Her cool head would be a welcome contrast to the spittle and frothing from Joyce.

  48. jenauthor:

    I’d bet London to a brick he was ordered not to appear lest he continue to make this worse for the govt.

  49. Regards the “bogan” vote, the Libs have been working hard to lock that down for 20+ years. Ever since Hanson gave them a scare the first time in the late 90s. Same playbook as the Republicans in the US.

    See Morrison’s “Scotty from the Shire”/”Daggy Dad”/”ScoMo”/”talking about racehorses and hanging out at the footy” bullshit act for details.

    But surely everyone on here already knows that. The greatest victory the conservatives have had in the past few decades is convincing members of the working class to vote against their own best interests.

  50. It is kind of fascinating to look at 1996 and see Keating leading as PPM by 45-40 in the final Newspoll, then at the same time, go on to lose 31 seats.

    Gillard led Abbott in 2010 by 13 as PPM and still lost 11 seats.

    Shows KBonham’s theory in full effect and why people really shouldn’t pay too much attention to it.

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